Five Things to Watch: 2023 BIG 10 Outdoor Championships

TSR Collaboration
May 11, 2023
11 min read

Written by Garrett Zatlin, predictions via Maura Beattie

Despite the last-minute nature of the entries release for the BIG 10 Outdoor Championships, we still wanted to craft a meet preview for our readers! Admittedly, this article won't be quite as long as our ACC Outdoor Championship preview, but then again, not all of our articles need to be that long anyways.

Let's dive into this midwest championship battle, shall we?

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Men's 1500 Meters: Sharp vs Foster

This may end up being the best distance matchup of the BIG 10 Outdoor Championships!

Jackson Sharp (Wisconsin) and Nick Foster (Michigan) are two upper-tier talents who are each capable of taking home gold in this race. However, in my mind, it's Foster who is the clearest and most obvious favorite.

The Michigan veteran has been phenomenal this year, elevating his fitness to an entirely new level since the fall months. He ran 3:56 in the mile during indoor track season, expanded his range across a variety of events, flexed great tactics and made it to the mile finals at the NCAA Indoor Championships.

And after running 3:38 for 1500 meters earlier this season, as well as putting together a great tactical showing at the Duke Invitational, Foster feels like the most complete miler in this field.

Sharp, however, is arguably just as naturally talented. The Wisconsin star finished 3rd at the NCAA Indoor Championships this past winter in the 3000 meters and ran a time of 3:57 in the mile during the indoor track season.

Admittedly, Sharp's resume isn't as thorough over the mile and 1500 meter distances in comparison to Foster, especially in tactical championship scenarios. But in terms of accolades and general raw fitness, this Aussie Badger is probably just as good, if not better, than his Wolverine counterpart.

While Sharp may be a bit of an unexpected entrant in this field, I would say that his teammate, Abdullahi Hassan, is arguably just as much of a surprise. The 1:46 (800) man is entered in the 1500 meters instead of his primary event (the half-mile), but...I actually love this decision.

The men's 1500 meters at the BIG 10 Championships often turns tactical -- very tactical. Over the last few years, this title has been won in a slow time and with a last-minute kick. And when you look at the rest of this field, it is undeniable that Hassan has the best leg speed out of everyone who is entered.

Honestly, it's not even close.

That's also why I would like to monitor guys like Evan Dorenkamp (Penn State) and John Petruno (Michigan State). Those two men have proven to be excellent when they are firing on all cylinders and they have both proven to be fairly effective with fast finishes.

Yes, it's true, Petruno hasn't looked quite as sharp as he did last spring and Dorenkamp is still working to rebuild his fitness from last year after an injury took him out for the 2022 outdoor track and 2023 indoor track seasons.

Eli Hoeft (Minnesota), however, is another fascinating name. He ran 3:40 for 1500 meters earlier this season and has quietly been hanging around the BIG 10 as a somewhat underrated distance talent.

Sure, this Golden Gopher veteran isn't perfect in terms of his in-race execution, but running 3:40 for the metric mile is a clear jump up in fitness. Be sure to keep an eye on him as we head into the weekend.

Women's 1500 Meters: Can Anyone Take Down Howell?

Let's not make this complicated: OIivia Howell is the overwhelming favorite to win this 1500 meter conference title -- and it's not super close.

The Illinois superstar, who won the mile national title at the indoor national meet this past winter, has been working on her 800 meter speed in recent weeks, running 2:02 multiple times for that distance.

Howell is just flat-out the best mile/1500 meter runner in this field. If it's a fast race, she'll simply run away from you. If it's a tactical race, she'll charge past you in the final straightaway.

However, in a tactical setting, I do think that Michigan's Samantha Tran has a shot at gold. The Wolverine standout has been having an incredible year, running 4:34 in the mile this past winter and then securing two VERY impressive wins on the outdoor oval.

Her fastest 1500 meter time this season may "only" be a 4:15 mark from the Penn Relays, but Tran is absolutely capable of running faster than that.

And yet, that may not really matter.

In a race that will likely be all about positioning, surging and kicking, Tran has proven to be one of the absolute best in the nation this year. If she's near the leaders, or within a top pack with 200 meters to go, she may win this race.

Let's chat about Alex Carlson, shall we?

During the indoor track season, this Rutgers star was AWESOME. She ran 4:31 in the mile and also posted a 3k time of 8:56. However, after a brutal showing at the NCAA Indoor Championships, Carlson's lone race of this season was a 4:26 (1500) mark at the Penn Relays.

To be brutally honest, she just hasn't been good in her last two showings.

But a lot can happen in a few weeks. And truthfully, only one outdoor track race is not a good sample size when making postseason predictions.

Even so, there aren't a lot of positive signs that Carlson will be a major contender for gold in this race, although at her best, her raw talent is probably just as good as Howell's.

We have surprisingly gotten this far into the women's 1500 meters and not yet mentioned Katie Osika. The Michigan State ace is a great talent and is usually pretty reliable. She owns a 4:37 PR for 1600 meters and is typically pretty good on these stages with the exception of last winter.

Does Osika have enough upside to take down Howell for the win? In my opinion, no, probably not. But for a Michigan State team that just wants to score points, having someone as reliable as this veteran makes her feel like a top-five lock.

Men's 800 Meters: Welcome to the Penn State Showcase

Here is every (known) Penn State runner entered in the men's 800 meter field for this weekend and their respective personal bests...

Handal Roban (1:47)
Olivier Desmeules (1:47)
Darius Smallwood (1:47)
Callum Dodds (1:47)
Evan Dorenkamp (1:48)

That list doesn't even include guys like Yukichi Ishii, Luke Seymour and Carter Fitzgerald who have all run 1:48 for 800 meters before. But I digress...

The point of conversation when it comes to the men's 800 meter field at the BIG 10 Championships this weekend is...how many points will Penn State score in this event? Of the five preliminary heats, three of them feature only one Penn State runner. The first heat features two Penn State athletes (Dorenkamp and Desmeules).

In other words, it is VERY realistic that we will see four Penn State men make the 800 meter finals this weekend. And if that happens, the literal lowest number of points that the Nittany Lion men could score in the finals (assuming it's a nine-man final) is six points.

The best possible score?

29 points.

In one event.

Now, obviously, that latter scoring scenario would take a miracle day from the Penn State men. That's because Indiana's Camden Marshall (1:47) and Michigan's Cole Johnson (1:47) are both in this field.

Marshall has been fantastic this season. He was very strong during the winter months, but has seemingly gotten even better since then. The Hoosier star continues to run in the 1:47 range for 800 meters and has added 3:39 (1500) strength to his resume as well.

Johnson, meanwhile, hasn't been quite as sharp as he was last year, but he has still been very solid. He ran 1:47 (800) this past winter and has dropped under 1:49 multiple times this season. He'll be a factor this weekend, but his recent string of performances don't suggest that he'll be aiming for gold like Marshall may be able to (I feel like I'll regret saying that).

Although, to be honest, as good as those guys are, it's the aforementioned Penn State star of Handal Roban who is favored to win this race. He's run 1:47 for 800 meters this season, is coming off of a bronze medal in this event at the 2023 indoor national meet and has simply been flat-out consistent.

Yes, his teammate Olivier Desmeules did win the title this past winter, but Roban is the guy who has simply been better since then.

Be sure to also look out for Adam Spencer. The Wisconsin miler was strong this past winter, but then ran 3:37 for 1500 meters at the Bryan Clay Invite after almost falling on the first turn of the last lap in that race.

He has also run 1:48 for 800 meters this spring and may even be due for a 1:47 mark given how incredibly fit he is right now.

Women's 800 Meters: Rynda vs Johnson vs Penn State

I'll be honest, I have no idea who is going to win this race, but that's why Maura is doing the predictions and I'm just writing the preview.

The first name to look at is Michigan's Aurora Rynda, the long-time middle distance ace who is the most experienced name in this field...with the possible exception of Kassidy Johnson.

Unlike a few of the other names who we have mentioned in this preview, it's not hard to figure out what the narrative is for this Wolverine star. She tends to have solid, but unexciting, regular seasons until throwing down a huge time in the 800 meters, roughly around 2:02, as we head into the championship portion of the winter or spring months.

Historically, Rynda is a juggernaut at the BIG 10 Championships and almost always walks away with a win. Half of those conference meet wins have been over 600 meters on the indoor oval. But when it comes to her actual 800 meter races, those finals weren't as fast as we are expecting this weekend to be.

Rynda is probably the favorite, but her competition in the BIG 10 this year is arguably the strongest it's been during her time in the NCAA. This will be a very interesting challenge for the Michigan standout as she prepares for the regional meets.

The aforementioned Kassidy Johnson (Rutgers) is someone who, on paper, is able to match the talent that Rynda brings to the table. The former Kansas State runner is extremely experienced and has been to the national stage before. With a 2:02 (800) PR, this Scarlet Knight has enough fitness to take down her Michigan-based counterpart.

When Johnson is "on", she is "ON". She doesn't always run ridiculously fast marks, but her recent string of personal bests suggests that she has a lot of momentum under her entering this weekend. Don't be surprised if she's the one who walks away with gold.

However, based on this past winter, it's extremely possible that neither Rynda nor Johnson are the ones crossing the line in 1st place.

Instead, it could be someone in a Nittany Lion singlet.

The Penn State women, much like their male teammates, have been excellent this spring. Rachel Gearing has gone from "good" to "great" over the last few months after running a 2:02 PR over 800 meters. She's also the defending champion in this event from the 2023 BIG 10 Indoor Championships.

Also, here's a fun fact: In Gearing's last four half-mile efforts, she has run no slower than 2:03 for this distance! In other words, she may actually be the most reliable woman in this field despite her being "less established" than Rynda and Johnson.

Meanwhile, teammate Hayley Kitching has looked strong, although she hasn't run 2:03 (800) since the BIG 10 Indoor Championships where she narrowly finished behind Gearing.

Then we have Nittany Lion sophomore Allison Johnson. She was flat-out incredible during the winter of her rookie year, but then fell off the radar until this past cross country season before she sat out once more during the winter months.

Since then, Johnson has slowly rebuilt her fitness, running 2:05 (800) earlier this season. She still has to do more to prove that she can contend for a BIG 10 title this spring, but with a 2:02 PR over this distance from last year, she is at least talented enough to be in the mix.

Women's 3k Steeplechase: Windemuller vs The Field

In my eyes, there are three, maybe four, women who we need to monitor in the steeplechase this weekend at the BIG 10 Outdoor Championships. The most obvious name is Kayla Windemuller, the Michigan veteran who just had a huge performance at the Penn Relays a few weeks back, running 9:51 (steeplechase) for the overall win.

Windemuller, at her best, is a major force. She ran 9:47 in the steeplechase last spring at the outdoor national meet and is the top returner in this event from the 2022 BIG 10 Outdoor Championships.

On paper, no one in the BIG 10 this season has come anywhere close to the Wolverine ace over the barriers and water pits. However, the only knock on Windemuller is that outside of that Penn Relays victory, she hasn't necessarily been amazing on either the indoor or outdoor ovals this year.

As long as she can replicate her last effort, then she'll win gold, but that's not necessarily a guarantee to happen.

We then come to Katelyn Stewart-Barnett, a Michigan State steeplechaser who ran 9:56 in the same race as Windemuller, finishing runner-up at the Penn Relays.

Admittedly, we only have so much to talk about when it comes to Stewart-Barnett. She is a somewhat younger-ish talent who is only now beginning to realize her talent and potential in this event. She's had a few respectable personal bests, but her latest effort at the Penn Relays was a clear deviation from the results that we were previously seeing from her.

Believe it or not, it may actually be Faith DeMars (Penn State) who I trust the most in this field. Her steeplechase PR of 9:59 from earlier this spring may not be quite as fast as Windemuller's 9:51 seasonal mark, but it can still be competitive.

And when you factor in that DeMars ran 15:44 for 5000 meters at the Raleigh Relays, I question if Windemuller or Stewart-Barnett are as fit as their Pennsylvania-based rival regardless of event selection.

When you consider that DeMars is only a sophomore, I also can't help but think that she may have some of the best upside of anyone in this field.

The final name who we need to highlight is Lucinda Crouch, a long-time Wisconsin veteran who has left us scratching our heads as of late.

At her best, this elder Badger steeplechaser can be a contender for a top-three finish in this field. Her PR of 10:05 in this event also feels like it could be even faster given her history and overall talent.

But Crouch hasn't run faster than 10:13 in the steeplechase this season, although she has put together a series of new inconsequential personal bests in the 2000 meter steeplechase and the 1500 meters.

I do think that this Wisconsin runner is due for a new 3000 meter steeplechase PR, but I just don't know if we'll see that this weekend, at the regional meets or at all.