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Five Things to Watch: 2023 ACC Outdoor Championships
- TSR Collaboration
- May 10, 2023
- 16 min read
Written by Garrett Zatlin, predictions via Maura Beattie
I'm not sure why, but the ACC seems to be the only major conference that is able get entries out at a reasonable time. So if you want conference meet previews for something other than the ACC, just know that we're not necessarily trying to avoid doing so (and try asking your conference to have their entries submitted sooner).
Anyways, here are five key races to watch for this year's ACC Outdoor Championships...
Katelyn Tuohy to Make 10k Debut
Just when you thought Katelyn Tuohy couldn't spark any more conversation, she decides to make her collegiate debut in the 10,000 meters at the ACC Championships.
I have always been someone who believed that Tuohy would eventually go after the 10k/5k double on the national stage. But as time has progressed, I questioned if she would ever even contest a 10k race before she turned pro.
Luckily, distance running fans will be treated to Tuohy's event debut on Thursday night as the NC State star will toe the line for the 25-lap affair that, on paper, she should be able to handle with relative ease.
Admittedly, it doesn't feel likely that Tuohy is going to run some absurdly fast mark, especially if she doesn't have to. There are only two women in this field -- the Syracuse duo of Amanda Vestri and Savannah Roark -- who have run under 33 minutes for 10,000 meters before. Outside of those two ladies, the next-fastest 10k PR that someone holds is 33:06 (via NC State's Gionna Quarzo).
But do I think that Tuohy will at least run fast enough to secure herself a regional qualifying spot? Yes, almost definitely.
However, at the same time, it may not even matter what she does in this race (other than win). In a recent post-race interview, Tuohy noted how the 1500 meters may be an option for her at the regional and national stages. And if that's actually the case, then a longer race like the 10k would make sense to compete in before moving back down in distance two weeks from now.
As far as her greatest competition, the aforementioned Syracuse duo of Vestri and Roark seem like the most obvious candidates, especially for the former name.
In some big-time races, Vestri has been excellent this year. The long-time veteran was a 6th place All-American in the 5k this past winter and has since run 32:08 for 10,000 meters (which she posted at the Stanford Invite).
With the next-fastest seed time being her teammate (Roark) in 32:49, Vestri is the very clear favorite to secure silver in this 10k field. Admittedly, a faster race would benefit the Orange standout (and effectively limit any upsets), but as long as the pace stays honest, you can probably write-in Vestri for the runner-up spot on Thursday night.
The battle for bronze, however, is where things get interesting.
Savannah Roark has been excellent this year. Since the beginning of the cross country season, she has elevated her fitness to a completely different level. The Orange underclassman was an All-American on the grass and has run 32:49 for 10,000 meters this spring.
In case it wasn't already obvious, Roark is at her best when the racing distance gets longer.
Gionna Quarzo, however, is far more experienced in the 10k. She has shown excellent consistency in this event and has often peaked for this race in the postseason.
The 2022 outdoor national meet qualifier over 10,000 meters has an indoor and outdoor track resume that largely mimics Roark, although her 10k PR is slower...but not by a dramatic amount.
Picking between those two women for a 3rd place finish feels like a toss-up, but it will be an interesting development to monitor.
As for everyone else? Well, your guess is as good as mine.
Women like Katie Rose Blachowicz (Notre Dame), Mariah Howell (NC State) and Fatima Alanis (North Carolina) could all play a role in this race, although no one woman is distinctly so much better than the other, at least not in this tier.
The Men's 1500 Meters Is Loaded & Gold Is Up For Grabs
My goodness, this field is almost overwhelming in terms of talent.
The men's 1500 meters at the ACC Championships is typically pretty competitive, but I'm pretty sure I just counted at least 10 names who could realistically win gold in this event -- and that may be slightly conservative.
Let's be clear: A top name in this field, and a potential contender for gold, is probably not going to make the finals. Or at the very least, it's highly like that happens. With only 12 men capable of advancing to the finals, and two automatic qualifiers being allowed per heat, I would actually expect two or three top-tier names to be left out of the second round.
One of the main highlights of this field is the fact that Wake Forest star Thomas Vanoppen is listed in the first heat.
For those of you who may have forgotten, the Belgium mile ace actually fractured his toe in the mile prelims at the NCAA Indoor Championships this past winter. And since then, he hasn't competed.
Trying to put any significant stock/expectations into this Demon Deacon runner for tomorrow would be a risky move. We have no idea what the status of his health or fitness is.
The good news for Wake Forest fans is that Vanoppen is a tactical nightmare for his opponents. If that first heat is slow enough, then the North Carolina-based All-American may be able to sneak into the finals and do similar damage.
Also in that heat are Gary Martin (Virginia), Parker Wolfe (North Carolina), Karl Winter (Syracuse) and Viktor Idhammar (Virginia Tech).
Of that group, Martin is the best pure miler. He's run 3:39 for 1500 meters this season and ran 3:56 in the mile this past winter. Plus, when you tack on the fact that he ran 1:47 for 800 meters earlier this spring, it feels safe to say that this UVA ace, despite his rookie status, is one of the more complete distance talents in this field.
Of course, trying to balance his momentum and talent with his youth and inexperience isn't easy to do when it comes to multi-round championships such as this.
We then come to the second heat which is laded with roughly four men (maybe five) who I could realistically see winning gold.
Some would argue that North Carolina's Jesse Hunt is the overall favorite to win the 1500 meter finals this weekend -- and I would agree, although as you'll see in our predictions, not everyone does.
The Aussie veteran has always been a great miler for the Tar Heels in recent years, but he has taken a dramatic step up over the last few seasons. He has run 2:20 for 1000 meters, run a 3:56 mile PR, upset Thomas Vanoppen for the 2023 ACC indoor mile title and ran a jaw-dropping time of 3:37 for 1500 meters this spring.
On paper, Hunt can do no wrong. He has proven to be tactically effective and his raw fitness has caught up to the prestige of his ACC title from this past winter.
Also in this heat is Ethan Strand, the electric North Carolina sophomore talent who was so. darn. good. this past winter. With a 3:55 mile PR and a few incredible relay splits, this second-year UNC ace could absolutely win gold this weekend despite his 3:43 (1500) seasonal best.
That, of course, is exactly the issue.
As good as Strand was in the winter, he hasn't given us a whole lot to analyze this season. His times of 3:43 (1500) and 13:47 (5k) are fine, but he's clear capable of running so much faster.
Will we see that this weekend? Honestly, your guess is as good as mine.
Steven Jackson (Boston College) has proven that he has a ton of raw talent, Nathan Henderson (Syracuse) is fairly underrated and super experienced and Gavin Gaynor (NC State) just put together a thrilling 1500 meter win at the Penn Relays in a new 3:40 PR.
Of that group, I really like the momentum that we've seen out of Gaynor lately. His times aren't jaw-dropping or unbelievably elite, but he's doing all of the little things right. I would not be looking forward to facing him this weekend.
In the third heat, we have Luke Tewalt (Wake Forest), Paul Specht (Wake Forest) and Wes Porter (Virginia). All three of those men have run under 3:40 for 1500 meters this season with Tewalt posting a 3:38 PR while the latter two have run 3:39 this spring.
On paper, Tewalt is faster, but Porter is probably the safer bet. In terms of this entire year, Tewalt just hasn't been terribly consistent, although he probably has the greatest upside of anyone in this field (by a lot).
To be clear, Tewalt hasn't been bad, but it was somewhat of a surprise (at least to me) when I saw him run 3:38 in the metric mile. I do think he's talented enough to win this race, but I only have so much to analyze when it comes to this Wake Forest standout.
I was also stunned to see true rookie Paul Specht run 3:39 in that same race where Tewalt ran 3:38. His combination of inexperience and youth-based upside is also something that I'll be watching over the next few days.
Porter, however, is just simply more well-rounded. He's the more consistent mile/1500 meter runner of this group and feels like the most reliable. Of course, I'm sure the Wake Forest guys are eager to prove me wrong.
The final heat will largely be headlined by Conor Murphy (Virginia) and Nick Dahl (Duke).
Murphy has just been awesome this year. He was an All-American in the mile this past winter and has run times of 1:47 (800) and 3:39 (1500) this spring. The breakout star of his team has been fairly reliable and seems to have a good understanding of tactics in most of the races that I've seen him in.
We then come to Nick Dahl who has been good this year, maybe even great, but his rate of progression hasn't kept with the general growth of the ACC.
Running 3:39 for 1500 meters this season, as well as a 1:48 PR for 800 meters is promising. And at the very least, it tells me that he can compete for gold this weekend in the metric mile.
But tactically, I thought there have been times where he could have positioned himself a little bit better. Again, he has been by no means been bad, but he hasn't quite been the first option that I often predicted him to be throughout the spring of 2022.
Luckily for him, he has a pretty easy prelim heat relative to a few others.
Also, keep an eye out for Daelen Ackley (Notre Dame). The Fighting Irish rookie has run 3:41 for 1500 meters this season and just looks sharp in general. He's been pretty consistent throughout this spring and hasn't really had a bad race.
He may be young, but he also seems to have a ton of upside which I really like.
Can Rhoden Defend His Title? Can Zahafi Fight For Gold? How Effectively Will Murphy Double Back?
The men's 800 meter field isn't quite as deep as the men's 1500 meter field (as far as true title contenders go), but there are a lot of interesting storylines to monitor.
Tarees Rhoden is the very clear-cut favorite to win gold in this event...I think. The Clemson star developed a reputation this past winter for extremely ambitious front-running, but in a lot of instances, his approach paid off.
Remember, the Jamaican middle distance ace was a 4th place All-American over 800 meters this past winter (after a DQ from Navasky Anderson) and is the defending ACC indoor champion over the half-mile distance. If he pulls away early enough and no one decides to go with him, then there's a very real chance that he'll just go wire-to-wire for the win.
And if you don't think I'm being realistic, then I would like to remind you that Rhoden has run 1:46.20 for 800 meters this season. That, ladies and gentlemen, is currently the fastest time in the NCAA so far this spring.
Of course, we can't mention Rhoden without talking about his teammate, Aman Thornton.
In a lot of ways, this fellow 1:46 (800) man is the reason why Rhoden won the ACC indoor title in the 800 meters this past winter. Without Thornton using his broad frame to keep his fellow competitors from getting to the front, Rhoden would have been in far greater jeopardy of losing that ACC title.
But now, Thornton looks like he could be primed to shine. He ran 1:46 for 800 meters earlier this season (at the same meet as Rhoden) and was the bronze medalist in this event at the ACC Indoor Championships. He's also far more experienced than some people may realize.
In fact, when I look at this field, I think he's actually favored to finish runner-up!
"Hold on, what about Conor Murphy? He beat Thornton last winter at the ACC Indoor Championships in this same exact event! Why would he not be favored for silver?"
Great question, hypothetical reader.
Murphy would maybe be my pick to win it all, but he's also entered in the men's 1500 meters. And although the prelims for those two races are split between Thursday and Friday, the final rounds for both of those events are both set to be on Saturday -- and they are less than an hour and a half apart.
The 800 meter finals would be Murphy's fourth race of the weekend. So while it's not that I don't think he's talented enough for a top finish, I think the goal is simply to get him to the finals and see how many points he can score.
And truthfully, I can't argue against that decision from the UVA coaching staff at all.
It actually makes a lot of sense, especially if the 1500 meter finals are super tactical.
Let's chat about Ayman Zahafi shall we?
Me and my fellow TSR colleagues have been very clear that we think this Miami (FL) star is one of the most naturally talented 800 meter runners in the country. And given that the former D2 All-American has run 1:47 (or faster) for the half-mile distance a total of nine times throughout his career, all while owning a 1:46 PR, our theory seems to hold validity.
However, tactics and postseason have just not been good to Zahafi.
He was a DNF at the indoor national meet this past winter, faded to 5th place at the ACC Indoor Championships two weeks before that and dropped to 15th place in the first round of the 2022 outdoor national meet.
Now, in Zahafi's defense, he did win the ACC outdoor title in the 800 meters last spring. That obviously has to counter our argument a little bit.
That field, however, was relatively weak and not anything close to what he'll face this weekend. Last spring, Conor Murphy had not yet risen to elite form and Aman Thornton was disqualified for a false start.
A top-two finish this weekend would do wonder for Zahafi's confidence as he goes in the regional and (presumably) national stages. But the last year hasn't been great as far as postseason performances are concerned and I do feel like that's a fair thing to point out going into the preliminary rounds.
Women's 5k: Who Will Double The Most Effectively?
Gosh, what an insane field to try and sort through.
Alright, give me your patience as we try to break down this race.
Let's start with the army that is NC State. They are fielding Katelyn Tuohy, Alexandra Hays, Amaris Tyynismaa, Grace Hartman, Kelsey Chmiel, Savannah Shaw and Samantha Bush in this field on Saturday evening.
It's almost hysterical how much firepower you can find in that group, huh?
Of that Wolfpack contingent, Tuohy, Tyynismaa, Hartman and Shaw are all doubling at some point throughout the weekend. And when you factor in the 1500 meter finals, then Tyynismaa, Hartman and Shaw could all be doubling back for the 5k in less than two and a half hours.
In my eyes, Tuohy, Bush and Chmiel are a pretty safe trio of women to lean on when making your predictions. Yes, Tuohy will have to race the 10k on Thursday night, but I don't know how fast I see that race being. Plus, she'll have two nights of rest before the 5k.
With both Bush and Chmiel being completely fresh against a field of women who will almost all be doubling back, I can't help but think of those two distance talents as top-five locks.
Tyynismaa and Hays are both realistic threats to be top finishers in this race as well, but Hays is a MUCH better 10k runner than she is a 5k runner and like I said earlier, Tyynismaa may be doubling back from the 1500 meter finals.
We then come to the Notre Dame women who will be fielding their own 5k squad which features Olivia Markezich, Katie Thronson, Siona Chisholm, Erin Strzelecki, Annasophia Keller and Caroline Lehman.
And for the most part, the main contenders in that Fighting Irish group are also going to be doubling back from another distance event.
Markezich and Thronson are the two main names to monitor here. In a world where Katelyn Tuohy doesn't exist, Markezich could contend for the win and Thronson could be a top-five finisher. However, trying to double back from a race like the steeplechase, which takes place the night before, is not going to be easy.
Yes, Markezich did prove that she can double back from a DMR anchor leg and be a top contender in the 3k during the winter months. But racing the steeplechase and then coming back the next day for a 5k race is far more grueling than a weekend DMR/3k double.
Of course, with a 15:33 (5k) PR, the Notre Dame star may just be flat-out talented enough to fend off the rest of the field.
It's a somewhat similar story for Virginia's Margot Appleton who is also doubling this weekend...except, she probably won't have a night of rest between her races.
The breakout distance talent is racing in the 1500 meters as well as the 5k. That means that if she makes the 1500 meter finals (and she's probably favored to do so), then she'll be racing on VERY tired legs, almost in the same way that we'll see from Amaris Tyynismaa.
So with all of these women doubling...could this race just turn into a super tactical affair?
Maybe, but with Amanda Vestri (Syracuse) in this field, I would wonder if she'll try to keep things honest.
The Orange star is racing the 10k on Thursday night, but will have two nights of rest before the 5k on Saturday evening. And after running 15:42 (5k) this past winter before earning 6th place All-American honors in that event at the indoor national meet, I would think that a somewhat honest pace by her would be enough to drop a few of those top contenders.
That's just a theory, but it would makes sense. Vestri has always struck me as an endurance-centric distance talent with limited turnover. And if nearly everyone she is racing on Saturday is going to be on tired legs, then why not tire them out more with a somewhat aggressive pace?
I'm not saying that a tactic like that will allow her to win the whole race, but it could give her a shot a top-five result...right?
Will The Men's Steeple Be As Fast As History Suggests?
I don't know why, but the steeplechase, specifically on the men's side, often becomes so much faster in the postseason. And for whatever reason, that expanded depth and mass improvement in times is usually the most prevalent on an annual basis in the ACC.
Of course, as you'll see in our predictions, Maura thinks that trend will fade this year.
Here's a crazy stat: The top-three men in this field, based on their overall personal bests, all hail from the University of Virginia: Nathan Mountain (8:34), Yasin Sado (8:33) and Derek Johnson (8:32).
No, I don't think that trio will sweep the top-three spots in this race, but...I do really like what each of those men have done over the past year.
Mountain has made terrific improvements throughout this academic calendar. He was a sub-four miler on the indoor oval and ran 3:39 for 1500 meters as well as 13:48 for 5000 meters. Overall, his momentum is sky high and despite being a sophomore, he's racing with a lot of poise.
Johnson, meanwhile, ran 7:58 (3k) and 13:37 (5k) this past winter. He's run 8:32 in the steeplechase before, but an 8:38 mark this spring at least suggests that he can return to his peak form this weekend.
The Virginia veteran has been quietly excellent since the 2022 Southeast Regional XC Championships this past fall and has far greater "boom" than "bust" potential when toeing the line for most of his races (if fantasy track existed, he would be a great pickup).
Yasin Sado, however, is actually the most proven, but maybe the biggest question mark.
The experienced steeplechaser was great throughout last spring and I sincerely thought that he could be an All-American on the national stage. But so far this year, Sado has been surprisingly quiet. He ran in three DMR races and two 3k races during the indoor track season and has only contested one 1500 meter race this spring (where he ran 3:40).
To be clear, these have largely been good performances that we've seen from Sado this year, but his lack of results makes it hard to really get a proper gauge on what we should expect from him.
In my eyes, he's a massive wild card.
Let's move to another name, Kevin Robertson, the breakout Syracuse distance talent who will also be donning orange and navy blue colors.
The Orange runner ran 8:37 over the water pits and barriers on this same exact track back in late March. He has since run 8:44 in the steeplechase at the Penn Relays, finishing 3rd overall, but we don't know what version of Robertson we will see this weekend.
Can he be the guy who is going to go back under 8:40 in this event? Will he be able to hang with an aggressive pace and a crowded front pack like he (sorta) struggled to do in Philadelphia a few weeks ago?
Your guess is as good as mine, but at the very least, Robertson is talented enough to be a main contender in this field.
The final two names who we need to highlight are actually the two men who beat Robertson in that aforementioned Penn Relays steeplechase race, Zach Jaeger (Georgia Tech) and Tom Seitzer (Notre Dame).
Jaeger ultimately won that Penn Relays battle in a time of 8:40, holding off Seitzer at the line. But as incredible as that victory was, we still have a ton of questions about the competitive prowess of this Georgia Tech ace.
There's no denying that Jaeger is talented, but he's still inexperienced at this level of competition and in this event in general. He has undoubtedly shown improvements in his overall fitness this spring, but what will he do in a high-stakes championship stage?
As for Seitzer, he may not have won that Penn Relays race, but he did all of the right things. He is a great steeplechaser who ran an 8:41 PR in that event a few weeks ago.
Positionally, he's great.
Fitness-wise, he's better than most.
In terms of experience, almost no one (except maybe Sado) can match him.
When he reaches the postseason, he can catch fire.
But does Seitzer have enough raw talent and enough upside to be a major contender for the win? If this race is going to be won in 8:35 or faster, I'm not entirely sure I see him winning gold. However, in terms of every other aspect of his resume, this Notre Dame veteran may actually be the best man in this field.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
*Predictions by Maura Beattie
*Assumes all athletes will compete in the races that they are entered in
Women’s 800 Meters
Katherine Mitchell (Boston College) - 2:02
Lindsey Butler (Virginia Tech) - 2:02
Star Price (Virginia Tech) - 2:03
Esther Seeland (Virginia) - 2:03
Natalie Varela (Miami (FL)) - 2:05
Men’s 800 Meters
Aman Thornton (Clemson) - 1:46
Tarees Rhoden (Clemson) - 1:46
Conor Murphy (Virginia) - 1:47
Rynard Swanepoel (Wake Forest) - 1:47
Ayman Zahafi (Miami (FL)) - 1:48
Women’s 1500 Meters
Margot Appleton (Virginia) - 4:10
Amaris Tyynismaa (NC State) - 4:11
Amina Maatoug (Duke) - 4:11
Alyson Churchill (Florida State) - 4:13
Esther Seeland (Virginia) - 4:13
Men’s 1500 Meters
Luke Tewalt (Wake Forest) - 3:38
Jesse Hunt (North Carolina) - 3:38
Conor Murphy (Virginia) - 3:38
Viktor Idhammer (Virginia Tech) - 3:39
Thomas Vanoppen (Wake Forest) - 3:39
Women’s 5000 Meters
Samantha Bush (NC State) - 15:42
Kelsey Chmiel (NC State) - 15:43
Katelyn Tuohy (NC State) - 15:43
Margot Appleton (Virginia) - 15:46
Olivia Markezich (Notre Dame) - 15:47
Men’s 5000 Meters
Parker Wolfe (North Carolina) - 13:45
Zach Facioni (Wake Forest) - 13:47
Karl Winter (Syracuse) - 13:47
Luke Tewalt (Wake Forest) - 13:49
David Mullarkey (Florida State) - 13:52
Women’s 10,000 Meters
Katelyn Tuohy (NC State) - 33:15
Amanda Vestri (Syracuse) - 33:24
Savannah Roark (Syracuse) - 33:25
Gionna Quarzo (NC State) - 33:33
Katie Rose Blachowicz (Notre Dame) - 33:38
Men’s 10,000 Meters
Antonio Lopez Segura (Virginia Tech) - 28:43
Paul O’Donnell (Syracuse) - 28:48
Carter Solomon (Notre Dame) - 28:49
Rohann Asfaw (Virginia) - 28:59
Zach Facioni (Wake Forest) - 29:08
Women’s 3000 Meter Steeplechase
Olivia Markezich (Notre Dame) - 9:42
Katie Thronson (Notre Dame) - 9:46
Sasha Neglia (North Carolina) - 9:53
Emily Cole (Duke) - 9:56
Sophie Novak (Notre Dame) - 10:02
Men’s 3000 Meter Steeplechase
Nathan Mountain (Virginia) - 8:42
Derek Johnson (Virginia) - 8:44
Tom Seitzer (Notre Dame) - 8:44
Kevin Robertson (Syracuse) - 8:45
Zach Jaeger (Georgia Tech) - 8:49
