What to Watch For: Cyclone Open, Simmons-Harvey Invite & Larry Wieczorek Invitational (Day Two)

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Jan 20, 2023
10 min read

Updated: Jan 21, 2023

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Hello friends! Welcome back to the greatest collegiate distance running website on the internet. The weekend is rapidly approaching / already here, so I wanted to put out a fairly quick preview highlighting some key entries that aren't from the Hokie Invitational.

Yes, the Larry Wieczorek Invitational has already begun today, but a handful of key distance races will be contested on Saturday, so we thought that we'd also chat about that meet (specifically the men's mile).

And yes, we do have predictions! However, we opted to only make predictions for the races that we highlighted below. If we tried to make predictions for each distance event in all three of these meets, then this preview would have never come out.

Alright, let's begin...

CLICK HERE FOR SIMMONS-HARVEY INVITE ENTRIES

CLICK HERE FOR CYCLONE OPEN ENTRIES

CLICK HERE FOR LARRY WIECZOREK INVITE ENTRIES

Click here to view predictions

Juul, Engel & Freeland Headline BIG 10 Mile Clash

At long last, we will finally see Anna Juul return to her ideal distance (the mile) after moving from Harvard to Michigan as a graduate transfer this past summer. The long-time veteran was out of cross country eligibility in the fall, but will return to the oval as one of the more dangerous mile talents in the entire BIG 10.

Juul is a fantastic runner who has a strong understanding of positioning and tactics. She has run 4:18 (1500) and 4:36 (mile) during her time with the Crimson and has even dipped under the 4:40 mile barrier five times throughout her collegiate career (per TFRRS).

And let's not forget, this Pennsylvania native qualified for the 2020 NCAA Indoor Championships which were ultimately cancelled to the rise of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This Wolverine graduate student is a refined racer, but she still needs to reach that next tier of fitness if she's going to be a) get to the national stage and b) be a factor on the national stage.

But the women's mile field at the Simmons-Harvey Invitational should be the perfect race for Juul to start her 2023 indoor track campaign. This is an accomplished group of contestants, but this field is also not anything that should dramatically overwhelm Juul in her first race since last spring.

One of the biggest threats to Juul in this race, and maybe the overall favorite depending on who you ask, is Ohio State's Addie Engel. The cross country superstar from this past fall is more of a long distance runner, but the Buckeye ace does hold a 4:42 mile PR.

After finishing 10th at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships this past fall, one has to think that Engel will comfortably shatter that personal best. But will she shatter it enough to beat more established mile/1500 meter talents who, even without having their best day, could still run 4:38 or 4:39?

I don't necessarily know if she will, but I certainly think that she can.

I think there's a legitimate argument for Michigan State's Lauren Freeland to be considered as the favorite in this field. The Spartan distance runner had a breakout season last spring, running a massive time of 4:14 over 1500 meters. She finished 4th in the 1500 meter finals at the BIG 10 Outdoor Championships and was two spots out from qualifying for the outdoor national meet in that event.

No one in this mile field had more 1500 meter success last spring than Freeland did. She arguably has the most momentum of any true miler in this field and may be due for a statement performance in a race that could bring out the best in her.

Other names to watch include Michigan's Kayla Windemuller and Samantha Tran. Both women showed great promise this past fall and could be due for a new mile PR come Saturday.

Michigan Men Load Up 3k

There is admittedly not a whole lot of subjective analysis to offer about the men's 3000 meters at the Simmons-Harvey Invitational. That, however, doesn't mean that the race won't be exciting or won't produce fast times.

The Wolverine group of Olli Raimond, Nick Foster, Tom Brady and Arjun Jha are all entered in this race at seed times that sit under 8:00 -- which are also their personal bests, not just generous projections.

Some may say that Tom Brady is the favorite in this field -- an understandable argument given his 7:55 PR -- but Arjun Jha and Nick Foster are the two men who I'll be watching. That duo just went under four minutes in the mile last weekend (each running 3:59) and showed moments of promise on the grass this past fall.

Jha could be primed for a big race. His recent mile effort suggests that he has significantly improved his leg speed. And when you pair that with his endurance-based strength, I feel like this former Indiana runner could slash a heavy amount of time off of his personal best.

Going back to Brady, this is also going to be a big race (and season) for him. He just had a quietly great 2022 cross country season where he placed 4th at the BIG 10 XC Championships, 3rd at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships and then 60th at the NCAA XC Championships.

To put it simply, Brady is due. He's due for a breakout race and he's due to be the next focal star of this Michigan program. The Wolverines have had solid long distance depth over the years, but Brady has star potential that we haven't fully seen...yet.

And if he can inch his way closer to the low-7:50s range this weekend, then he could be primed for another big jump in a stronger 3k field later this winter.

I also like Nick Foster and Olli Raimond quite a bit. But both of those men are predominately milers and Raimond hasn't necessarily had an amazing string of races as of late. This could be a good "get right" race for him. Foster, meanwhile, has quietly been tearing it up as of late. Don't surprised if he ends up running around 7:55ish on Saturday.

Cailie Logue Returns For One Final Year

Surprise! Iowa State veteran Cailie Logue has returned to NCAA competition. After not racing last spring and not having any eligibility left on the grass this past fall, it may have been easy to forget that this Cyclone ace was still in Ames, Iowa.

But Logue has returned to the indoor oval for one last go. Not only does she have this current season of indoor track eligibility remaining, but TFRRS also suggests that she has one more season of outdoor track eligibility remaining which we presume that she'll use this spring.

The Cyclone standout is entered in both the mile and the 3000 meters this weekend, two events that are separated by three hours. It's challenging to know if she'll actually double or if she is pacing one of those races. However, it's arguably even more challenging to know what we should expect from her.

On one hand, Logue hasn't (knowingly) raced in roughly 11 months and Saturday's fields aren't exactly crazy-loaded -- although Nicola Jansen (Bradley) and Anastasia Korzenowski (Minnesota) could prove to be legitimate threats in the mile.

On the other hand, Logue had an excellent 2021-22 academic year. She was 4th at the 2021 NCAA Fall XC Championships and ran personal bests of 2:46 (1k), 4:36 (mile) and 9:03 (3k) on the indoor oval. Prior to sitting for a year, this Iowa State star was on absolute fire, especially for someone who we have considered to be a 5k/10k specialist.

If Logue is at a similar level of fitness that she was in this time last year, and is able to build upon that talent over the next month and a half, then she is going to be a legitimate problem this winter. Maybe even a fringe All-American contender!

That, of course, is just speculation.

Iowa State Men (Maybe?) Go All-In For Mile & 800 Meters

I'll be honest, I don't really have a good idea of what the Cyclone men are attempting to do in the middle distance events this weekend...other than run fast.

Iowa State is fielding Jason Gomez, Peter Smith, Chad Johnson, Tim Sindt, Nehemia Too, Titus Winders and Gable Sieperda in the fastest heat of the mile this weekend. But over three and a half hours later, both Gomez and Smith are set to come back in the 800 meters. They'll be joined by Cebastian Gentil, Darius Kipyego and Tyler Carreon.

Drake's Isaac Basten is also entered in the fastest heat of the men's 800 meters.

If I had to guess, I would say that Gomez and Smith are pacing the men's mile. Last year, the Cyclones had Johnson, Sieperda, Too and a handful of other ISU guys run in the mile, so seeing them give this event another try at this same meet is hardly surprising.

And for as good as both Gomez and Smith are, it makes more sense for them to attack the 800 meters rather than try to seriously focus on the mile.

The Iowa State men also know that their recent half-mile efforts from back in December -- where Gentil, Kipyego and Smith ran 1:47, 1:48 and 1:48, respectively -- are probably not going to be enough to qualify for this year's indoor national meet (although Gentil may have an outside shot).

So what should we expect? Well, it's hard to say.

In the mile, I feel confident that someone will break the four-minute mile barrier. Maybe even two people will do it! But I also don't know who those athletes would be and how far under that mark they would go.

Too has run 3:39 for 1500 meters before, but some of his performances have been a little all over the place. Sieperda had the best cross country season of this entire group, but he seems to be more of a longer distance guy. Sindt has shown a lot of promise, but he's not super proven in the mile.

I could see Chad Johnson running around 3:58 this weekend. He owns a 4:00 mile PR from this exact meet last year and just ran 13:33 for 5000 meters. From an outsider's perspective Johnson is currently at the peak of his fitness and I imagine that he'll deliver on his potential come Saturday.

As for the 800 meters, I can't imagine that any of these Iowa State entrants will have a poor race, but I also wonder who will realistically put themselves in a position to qualify for the indoor national meet.

Gomez is easily the most accomplished of this group, but his 2022 winter campaign was flat-out bad before flipping the script and having a phenomenal spring season. Gentil probably has the most upwards momentum of this group, but can he continue to reach the next level on the indoor oval? Kipyego has the most upside based on his youth, but when will we see him deliver on his true potential?

I have no idea what to expect from that trio...but I think it will only be good things.

Midwest Men Set to Battle in Loaded Mile Field at Iowa

It's incredibly rare that you see you a distance-based field of over 10 names where essentially everyone looks like a legitimate contender (to varying extents). That, however, is what we're set to see at the University of Iowa this Saturday.

The Larry Wieczorek Invitational is already underway, but the men's "Pro" field (which consists entirely of collegiates) could produce numerous sub-four mile times. And yet, at the same time, a lot of these men feel like true long distance runners.

The overall favorite in this field is almost certainly Wisconsin's Adam Spencer. The Aussie mile specialist owns a personal best of 3:57 for the distance. He also ran 3:37 for 1500 meters last spring. And after a few respectable efforts on the grass, it's hard to imagine that Spencer isn't in good enough shape to go after the win and potentially match his mile PR.

Is Spencer invincible in this field? No, he's not, but he was an All-American in the 1500 meters last spring and was on the Badgers' 3rd place DMR at the indoor national meet last year. The Wisconsin sophomore has consistently shown tremendous poise in a variety of race scenarios, especially in time trial-type environments.

In other words, all signs point to Spencer thriving on Saturday.

The Tulsa men also seem to be going all-in for the mile...which is a bit surprising given that they basically already did that at the Arkansas Invitational last week. Even so, I don't totally hate that the Golden Hurricanes are continuing to refine their speed.

A lot of these guys are better in the longer distances, so for them to refine their turnover early in the season before attacking the 3k and 5k (which I assume is their plan) seems like a smart approach. Pretty much every Tulsa runner entered in the fast heat -- Michael Power, Scott Beattie, Shay McEvoy, Christian Baker, Isaac Akers and Cormac Dalton -- has a legitimate shot at running under four minutes.

Will all of them actually do it?

No, almost certainly not.

But if you went one by one through all six of those Tulsa runners, I think you could legitimately make an argument for each of them to run 3:59 (or faster in some cases) this weekend. And truthfully, I don't know how many teams around the NCAA can say that.

The Wisconsin men not named Adam Spencer, however, are a bit of a different story.

Jack Meijer, Evan Bishop, Bob Liking and Rowan Ellenberg are all clearly long distance runners. They'll be moving down in distance, some by substantial margins, to work on their turnover this Saturday.

I'll admit, if I had to choose a group of milers from either Tulsa or Wisconsin this weekend, I think I'd choose the Golden Hurricanes. But the Wisconsin men all had great cross country seasons and could easily translate their aerobic fitness to the mile tomorrow night.

Also, keep an eye out for Loras' Ryan Harvey. The 2022 D3 mile All-American holds a 4:07 mile PR (unconverted on a flat-track) and has run 3:47 for 1500 meters as well.

He may not be a major factor at the front of this race, but if he follows the quick pace and hangs on for long enough, then Harvey may put himself at/near the top of the D3 national leaderboard for the next two-ish months.