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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Women): #11 New Mexico Lobos
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 22, 2024
- 6 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
For years, the New Mexico women reigned supreme as a dominant powerhouse that racked up multiple cross country national titles and numerous podium finishes as well. But then Coach Joe Franklin shook up the NCAA coaching world when it was announced that he would be leaving Albuquerque to take the Director role at Louisville.
In turn, nearly all of his women from a title-worthy team left to finish their eligibility elsewhere. That group included Gracelyn Larkin, Maisie Grice, Ali Upshaw, Amelia Mazza-Downie, Elise Thorner and, eventually, Emma Heckel.
As a result, Coach Darren Gauson was tasked with picking up the remaining pieces. And although the first year of New Mexico's rebuild was far from pretty, the fall of 2024 promises to be much, much better.
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To be blunt, the Lobos did not have a great 2023 cross country season. Sure, we could go through race and dissect all of their performances from last fall, but that feels unnecessary given how different the team's scoring contingent is.
During the regular season, New Mexico placed 6th at the Griak Invitational before settling for an underwhelming 25th place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite. And by the time they reached the postseason, the Lobos simply lacked momentum. The team barely fended Utah State by two points to finish 4th at the Mountain West XC Championships before settling for 7th place at the Mountain regional meet.
However, in each of those races, there was always one lone bright spot: Nicola Jansen.
The former Bradley runner was brilliant throughout last fall in what felt like a true breakout season for her. Placing 2nd at the Griak Invite, 21st at Nuttycombe, runner-up at the Mountain West XC Championships and becoming a 36th place All-American established Jansen as a true low-stick star.
Jansen's rise in 2023 was a huge development for a New Mexico squad that has since set themselves up for a great 2024 fall campaign. Her reliability as a true ace is a welcomed development for a team that is bringing in a few others with strong potential to be low-sticks, but aren't established in NCAA cross country yet.
Joining Jansen are two women who did not compete for New Mexico last fall.
In fact, they didn't race in the NCAA at all.
One of those women is Pamela Kosgei, a long distance superstar from Kenya. On the grass, she secured a bronze medal at 2023 U20 World XC Championships. She is also the U20 Africa champion and the Kenyan (senior) national champion in the steeplechase.
The newest Lobo superstar came into the NCAA with a personal best of 9:35 over the barriers and water pits, a time that was run at altitude. However, she recently posted a new PR of 9:28 at the Portland Track Festival earlier this year.
It should also be noted that Kosgei is the sister of Brigid Kosgei, a multi-time champion in major marathon races and was the silver medalist in the marathon at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics.
As far as credentials and pedigree are concerned, Pamela Kosgei comes into the NCAA at a similar level that Doris Lemngole and Hilda Olemomoi once resided in (and maybe still do). There aren't many international additions who feel like as much of a "sure thing" as Kosgei does.
In fact, we have even listed her at TSR #3 in our preseason cross country individual rankings.
But Kosgei and Jansen aren't the only women who we believe could be low-sticks for New Mexico this fall. That's because Mercy Kirarei, who was introduced to the team during the winter months, has also shown flashes of potentially being a low-stick-caliber talent.
This past spring, Mercy Kirarei posted a very strong 5k PR of 15:49, a result which hints at her potential scoring value on the grass. However, she also struggled a bit in the postseason, fading hard in her two meets.
There is no denying that Kirarei is an aerobic-centric talent who clearly holds plenty of raw fitness. However, we have yet to see her race on the grass and her 5k PR of 15:49 is, for the most part, the lone highlight on her resume (although she has run 9:06 for 3k back in 2018).
To be clear, Kirarei doesn't have to be an All-American this fall in order for New Mexico to match this preseason ranking. In fact, she probably doesn't even need to be a top-70 runner. If she can stay within the top-100 at the national meet (preferably closer to the top-80), then the rest of this lineup just needs to do enough to validate being placed at TSR #11.
And given the more-than-respectable reinforcements on this team, we're feeling optimistic about the Lobos' putting together a fairly complete lineup in 2024.
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Tilly Simpson, for instance, is an incoming transfer from Michigan. Admittedly, Simpson's cross country resume is rather bare, but this is also someone who ran a promising 5k time of 16:13 on the outdoor oval earlier this year.
At the very least, Simpson is going to be valuable scoring insurance should the backend of this varsity group begin falter. And while we may not know exactly what we're getting out of Simpson on the grass, New Mexico can at least take solace in knowing that she doesn't necessarily need to be a top-100 runner. As long as she can keep the scoring stable, then that should more than suffice.
How about Klara Dess? She has found most of her success in the 1500 meters (4:18) and the mile (4:42), but she also had a few sneaky-good moments on the grass fall. She placed 86th at the Nuttycombe Invite and 12th at the Mountain West XC Championships. However, other meets like the Griak Invitational or the Mountain Regional XC Championships weren't as kind.
If Dess is going to be the team's fourth scorer this fall, then we'll need to see her get somewhat close to replicating her Nuttycombe and Mountain West results from last year. And if she does, then this team had a very good shot of outperforming this preseason ranking (assuming all else goes as expected).
We also can't forget about Natalie Bitetti, the runner-up finisher at the NCAA D3 XC Championships last fall. Her strength-based, aerobic-centric background makes her a great fit for what this year's team needs, but it's not entirely clear how much of an impact she'll have as she jumps to one of the highest levels of NCAA competition.
Someone like Peyton Schieppe feels like a very underrated x-factor. She ran 16:00 for 5000 meters back in the spring of 2024 and placed 8th at the Griak Invitational last fall. However, we haven't seen her compete since that same Griak Invitational race.
Schieppe at top form undeniably makes New Mexico a top-10 team in the country. The only issue, of course, is that she been completely absent for almost the entirety of the past year.
Speaking of former Bradley runners, Sophia McDonnell is coming off of a fantastic outdoor track season where she ran 10:03 in the steeplechase. She was also just three spots out from qualifying for the national meet.
Of course, the biggest question for McDonnell will be, can she translate that kind of performance (consistently) to the grass? And after not seeing her race last fall, that's a challenging thing to know.
Other women such as Li-Mari Dekker, Hanna Bruckmayer and Semira Mebrahtu Firezghi are all realistic candidates to crack this team's top-seven as well.
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We will fully admit, the math suggests that the New Mexico women should be ranked a few spots higher than this TSR #11 spot. A preseason position closer to TSR #8 (or maybe even TSR #7) isn't a stretch by any means.
With three possible low-sticks and way better depth than some may realize, the Lobos are a stacked team built to be exceptionally dangerous this fall. However, the rest of the NCAA -- specifically the teams ranked in our top-10 -- are either established powerhouses or have added key scoring weapons to their already-stacked team.
Simply put, it's what other teams have done, not what New Mexico has done, that has influenced the Lobos to be ranked here.
When Coach Joe Franklin left New Mexico for Louisville, we couldn't help but wonder if the Lobos were no longer going to be the aerobic-based powerhouse that they had long established over the prior 16 years.
But it's important to give credit where credit is due: Coach Darren Gauson has done a fantastic job crafting this program in his image. The aggressive recruiting has paid off greatly and his willingness to lean into the transfer portal has covered the gaps in-between.
And who knows? By this time next year, the Goliath-like distance program that we once thought was dead may have come back to life -- maybe even stronger than before.
