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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Women): #13 Tennessee Volunteers
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 20, 2024
- 6 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
There may not be a more fascinating cross country team in the entire NCAA than the Tennessee women.
Last year's squad wasn't supposed to be nationally ranked. They weren't supposed to make it to the NCAA XC Championships. They most certainly weren't supposed to do well at the national meet. But the thing about super-young squads like Tennessee is that, frankly, they don't know that they're not supposed to be that good.
And this team fully embraced that mentality last fall.
The Volunteers' thrived off of their youth-based upside in 2023 and were set to be just as dangerous this fall. Of course, then their head coach left along with a crucial scorer in Jesse Secor. But the other women? Well, they have stayed put, seemingly ready to rally around the current core that they already have.
Now, this still-young team will need to, once again, grow up faster than most NCAA distance runners. Of course, as we saw last fall, the Lady Vols are plenty capable of doing just that.
* * *
Tennessee's 2023 cross country season didn't truly kick-off until Pre-Nationals, the team's first major race of the year. In Charlottesville, Virginia, the Volunteers would face the likes of BYU, Arkansas, Virginia and Oregon -- four teams that went on to finish in the top-15 of last year's national meet.
And yet, despite being the clear underdog to those four teams, the Tennessee women still held their own. Ashley Jones (12th) offered a nice fringe low-stick result while Jillian Candelino (18th) was a pleasant surprise.
From there, veteran Kayla Gholar (29th), then-junior Rachel Sutliff (34th) and freshman Jessie Secor (43rd) closed out the scoring. While the backend of this lineup simply didn't match the national-caliber programs who finished ahead of them, Tennessee's latter-half scoring group truthfully wasn't too far off from other top teams.
In the end, the Vols secured 5th place, just 18 points behind Oregon. For the most part, Pre-Nationals was a success.
The Tennessee women later ventured to the SEC XC Championships. However, this time, there were multiple teams that seemingly felt beatable. Sure enough, that's exactly what happened.
Florida (1st) and Arkansas (2nd) were simply too top-heavy for the Tennessee women to have any chance at an upset. However, Jones, Sutliff and Secor did put together an excellent top-three scoring punch, going 10-13-14, respectively.
With Jillian Candelino (21st) and Caroline Lyerly (22nd) closing out the scoring, the Volunteers had capped a statement performance where they secured a huge 3rd place finish, defeating Alabama and Ole Miss in the process.
Momentum was on Tennessee's side going into the rest of the postseason. After expecting to be an "at-large" team in the national qualifying process, the Volunteers ended getting an automatic qualifying bid in the South region. And the national meet? Well, that's what largely prompted this ranking.
In one of the single-most impressive examples of shattering expectations, the Tennessee women put together a top-five that was void of any true flaws.
Ashley Jones (42nd) was yet again an incredibly valuable lead scorer while Jillian Candelino (72nd) and Rachel Sutliff (74th) had the races of their lives. The same could be said for rookie Caroline Lyerly (91st) while another freshman, Jessie Secor (113th), closed the team scoring relatively quickly.
In the end, the Volunteers secured a monster 6th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships, arguably the most impressive performance of the entire meet.
* * *
Where do we even start with this team?
There are so many different components and storylines regarding the Volunteers that it truthfully feels impossible to give them an accurate ranking. We'll admit, we originally had this group listed around our TSR #10 or TSR #11 positions. But after hearing that they were losing top-five scorer Jessie Secor to Colorado, we felt like it was appropriate to give Tennessee a slight bump backwards.
It also doesn't help that Coach Sean Carlson, the man responsible for accelerating Tennessee's rebuild beyond their expected timeline, has left. In turn, Coach Justin Duncan, a more-than-qualified coach from Oklahoma State, has been brought in to reassemble the puzzle that is Tennessee's cross country lineup.
The good news, however, is that a number of women from last year's national meet lineup are still set to return. That includes Ashley Jones, someone who emerged as a fringe low-stick throughout last fall. She is currently ranked at TSR #49 in our preseason individual cross country rankings.
Jones being in top form (and preferably being even better than last year) is a must for Tennessee this fall. While this roster does have a ton of promising lineup options, their scoring potency and firepower wasn't necessarily the strongest aspect of their top-seven last fall.
Thankfully, as last season progressed, Jones looked more and more like a low-stick. But if this group is going to return to the top-10 at this year's national meet, then having a second lead scorer alongside Jones will certainly help with that.
Figuring out the exact order for the rest of this lineup is tricky, mainly because Rachel Sutliff, Jillian Candelino and Caroline Lyerly are all relatively similar runners in terms of talent. The former runner is a veteran while the latter two are high-upside underclassmen. In theory, those are all great things for any team to have in the middle portion of their lineup.
Of that group, Sutliff probably had the best cross country performance of last fall by placing 13th at the SEC XC Championships. Meanwhile, Lylerly made the most progress on the track, running 33:19 for 10,000 meters. Candelino, however, was probably the most consistent on the grass relative to expectations.
If those three women are able to replicate their best results from last fall on a more consistent basis, then that will be perfectly fine. Simply having stable middle-lineup scorers in addition to a low-stick talent (like Ashley Jones) has proven to be very effective in prior seasons.
Just look at how strong the Stanford women were throughout most of last year!
* * *
Through four runners, it's hard not to like what this team brings to the table in terms of value. But who else will be in this top-seven?
If we had to guess, veteran Kayla Gholar will likely be the team's fifth and final scorer. At last year's national meet, she wasn't too far off from Jessie Secor (113th) via her 130th place finish. In fact, if you take Secor out of last year's national meet lineup and replace her scoring role with Gholar, then Tennessee still takes 6th place.
We also really like what we saw from Gholar on the track, posting times of 10:15 (steeple) and 16:05 (5k). That makes us feel a bit better that we're going to see greater consistency from the Volunteer veteran compared to last year.
We also can't forget about Lauren Tunnell, a graduate transfer from VCU. She could absolutely end up being a scorer this fall. She was undefeated through last fall, winning the (truthfully less competitive) "Brown" race at the Paul Short Run before securing the A10 individual title. She later placed 29th overall at the Southeast regional meet.
Trying to figure out exactly how impactful Tunnell will be is a slight challenge. Her track times don't reflect her true talent, but her fairly light racing schedule makes it hard to compare her to other strong names.
After Gholar and Tunnell, things admittedly become much less clear when it comes to filling the final spot of this lineup. Last year's seventh runner, Callie Tucker, is gone. And when you look at the rest of this roster, the options feel fairly limited in terms of proven long distance talents.
Women like Jaci Sievers, Andie-Marie Jones or one of Tennessee's newest recruits (i.e. Tula Fawbush and/or Rebecca O'Keeffe) could potentially find their way into the Volunteers' varsity group. Even so, the remaining options of this lineup leave us wanting more for a team that is trying to return to the top-10 of the national meet.
* * *
Last year's Tennessee team caught a hot streak and rode it straight through the postseason. When it mattered the most, the Volunteers could seemingly do no wrong.
But the fall of 2024 is going to be a bit different for this team. Not having Jessie Secor could leave this group slightly vulnerable should someone have an "off" day and not having their former coach leaves us wondering what, if anything, will change with the dynamic of this program.
This ranking is an attempt to reflect Tennessee's incredible rise throughout last fall while also acknowledging that they (probably) weren't a top-15 team until they reached the regional and national meets. In other words, our TSR #13 spot feels like an appropriate middle ground.
And yet, despite not being listed in our top-10, we can't ignore the unreal upside and potential of this program. Nearly everyone on this team has the ability to build on their performances from last fall. And even though it will be hard for everyone to replicate last year's success, the ceiling of this team does feel almost limitless.
Maybe that last part deserves more emphasis and therefore a push into our top-10. But for now, we'll keep the Volunteers at this position with the understanding that our TSR #13 spot may end up being their floor.
