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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Men): #12 Wisconsin Badgers
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 21, 2024
- 10 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
This feels...wrong.
It feels wrong to place a team as historically accomplished as Wisconsin at our TSR #12 position.
But the fall of 2024 brings new challenges that last year's squad didn't have to worry about. Losing one of their star low-sticks and a crucial scoring veteran suddenly changes the complexion of this team in a significant way.
While the Wisconsin men have collected a handful of promising long distance talents, trying to replace the scoring value of their departees isn't going to be easy. And yet, the history and reputation of this program suggests that, somehow, they'll be a top-10 squad once more come October and November...right?
* * *
The Wisconsin men kicked-off their 2023 cross country season by attending the Loyola Lakefront Invitational. There, the Badgers would face a field of teams that simply weren't good enough to match them.
Bob Liking and Jackson Sharp went 1-2 while Evan Bishop and Micah Wilson placed 11th and 14th, respectively. Rowen Ellenberg (21st) closed out the scoring. For a team that didn't have Adam Spencer, that was a fairly solid scoring contingent. In turn, the Badgers cruised to an easy 60-point win over 2nd place Iona.
Of course, their first real challenge wouldn't come until the Nuttycombe Invitational, Wisconsin's annual home meet. In theory, one would think that a team racing on their home course with thrive against their competition. That, however, didn't happen.
Jackson Sharp (5th) was outstanding once again, giving his team a potent low-stick result. Rowen Ellenberg (55th) would also post a very underrated performance while Evan Bishop (82nd) held his own. But from there, the team's next scorer didn't cross the line until 189th place, heavily inflating Wisconsin's team score and leaving them with a truthfully poor 22nd place finish.
However, that result wasn't nearly as bad as one may have thought.
Bob Liking, Adam Spencer and Micah Wilson all did not run for the Badgers that day. And if they had, then each of those men would have had a very good shot at being a scorer. In fact, here is what we said about this group after that collective effort...
"You might look at this result and think, "Gosh, Wisconsin ran poorly." And to some extent, that would be true. However, it's important to note that the Badgers were without Bob Liking, one of the top cross country runners in the entire NCAA.
If Liking had toed the line for Friday's race and finished 10th overall, then after displacement, the Wisconsin men would have finished 8th place overall in the team race with 344 points. That would have put them ahead of Villanova.
Yes, an 8th place finish in this field still wouldn't have met expectations, but it would have been much better than the 22nd place finish that the Badgers produced.
But wait, there's more!
We also didn't see Micah Wilson race, a guy who finished 14th at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational. Even if he finishes in 100th place and Liking also runs up to expectations, then this team scores around 253 points and beats Syracuse (narrowly) after factoring in displacement."
So in other words, it was actually a very strong race from the Badgers.
The BIG 10 XC Championships was admittedly not much of a challenge for Wisconsin despite Michigan entering the meet as a nationally ranked team. The Badgers put six men in the top-10 and five men in the top-seven. In other words, even if every other team in the BIG 10 combined to form one super team, they still wouldn't have been able to beat Wisconsin.
Frankly, they wouldn't have even been close.
Fast forward to the national meet and expectations were high. Wisconsin was now firing on all cylinders. They had already reintroduced guys like Liking, Wilson and Spencer to their lineup and they seemed perfectly built to earn a podium finish.
Unfortunately, the end result wasn't that.
Jackson Sharp (41st) had an "off" day, falling back likely 20 to 30 spots from where we thought he would finish. Bob Liking (83rd) simply struggled on the national stage, falling well off the top-10 result that we thought he was capable of.
Thankfully, Adam Spencer (70th) and Josh Truchon (75th) salvaged what could have been a much uglier day for Wisconsin. But with Evan Bishop recording a DNF due to illness, the next Badger to cross the line was Micah Wilson in a somewhat unexciting, but still respectable, 133rd place finish.
And yet, despite all of that, Wisconsin still walked away with a 10th place team finish.
* * *
Let's rip the band-aid off and get the bad news out of the way.
Wisconsin loses both Jackson Sharp and Evan Bishop this fall.
And to put it simply, that stings.
A lot.
Sharp was a focal low-stick ace for this team over the last few years. And even though he "only" placed 41st at last year's national meet, he had already proven to be far more dangerous than that.
Trying to replace Sharp in one offseason with no major transfers near his caliber is going to be an extremely difficult challenge. Yes, Wisconsin does have Bob Liking, but what made this team so dangerous was that they had enough depth to fully capitalize on the scoring of both of their low-stick stars.
And after seeing how Liking struggled a bit at last year's national meet, not having a second low-stick to act as a cushion would have been very rough. In fact, the Badgers would have faded to 18th place overall if you remove Sharp from last year's results.
We then come to Evan Bishop, the now-departed graduate transfer who is finishing up his eligibility with Oregon. And although Bishop was never a star low-stick, he was one of the more valuable middle-lineup scorers among nationally ranked teams.
Finishing 82nd at last year's Nuttycombe Invite was great scoring insurance for a team that was sitting a handful of key names. We also loved seeing him place 4th at the BIG 10 XC Championships. But more importantly, Bishop's DNF result last year's national meet showed us how important someone like him is.
The depth of Wisconsin's roster is extensive. Truthfully, they'll probably find a guy who can fill Bishop's empty role. But trying to also find a replacement for Sharp is going to require someone like Adam Spencer, Rowen Ellenberg, Micah Wilson or Josh Truchon taking a major leap. And while we really like all of those guys as excellent support scorers, it's hard to envision one of those men being a top-20 cross country talent this fall.
* * *
Alright, now time for the good news.
Bob Liking is way overdue for a good national meet performance. He has proven before that he can thrive in big-time, high-pressure meets (he's been incredible at the Nuttycombe Invite), but he has yet to showcase his talent as a top-15 runner on the national stage.
This isn't to say that Liking hasn't had national meet success before -- he placed 34th at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships -- but it's clear that he's capable of more. And if you're someone who looks mainly at last year's national meet results, then there is a ton of room for Liking to offer improved scoring on that specific stage.
At the very least, having Liking as the team's focal low-stick still gives this team a foundational scoring piece who they can build around this fall (before he finishes his eligibility). And if the Badgers are able to find another true low-stick, then this group may not look all too different than they did last year.
Of course, that's easier said than done.
Spencer, Ellenberg, Wilson and Truchon are all returning for another year of cross country. And while none of those men have proven to be individual standouts, each runner has had at least one moment of underrated excellence.
Adam Spencer may be known for his accolades on the track, but he has been quietly great on the grass despite racing sparingly. Last fall, for instance, the Aussie Badger placed 5th at the BIG 10 XC Championships, 6th at the Great Lakes regional meet and 70th at the NCAA XC Championships.
Those are all very strong results for any non-low-stick scorer in the NCAA. And while we don't necessarily know what Spencer's ceiling on the grass may be, his presence will still provide great stability to a team that lost two crucial pieces. The only catch is that he will likely not debut until the postseason this fall after extending his summer of racing for the Olympics.
Rowen Ellenberg is a long-time veteran of this program who has often flown under the radar in terms of scoring contributions. But let's not forget, this is someone who earned a great 55th place result at last year's Nuttycombe Invite.
Truthfully, Ellenberg's consistency could be a bit better. He did well at Nuttycombe and the BIG 10 XC Championships last fall, but seemingly had "off" days at the Loyola Lakefront Invite (21st) and the NCAA XC Championships (188th).
But don't forget, this is the same guy who placed a fantastic 45th at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships! That is a result that usually leaves us asking, "Is this guy a low-stick?" Ellenberg also placed 78th at the 2021 NCAA Winter XC Championships.
To make a long story short, we've seen how dangerous Ellenberg can be when he's in top form -- we don't need to project and hope that he actually has that talent. He will, however, need to offer slightly better consistency at that level of racing.
How about Micah Wilson? He turned into a far more valuable scorer than we expected him to be last year. The redshirt freshman earned a solid 14th place finish at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational, but went on to have a "just okay" postseason, placing 10th at the BIG 10 XC Championships and 133rd at the NCAA XC Championships.
Wilson is still fairly young, so there should (in theory) be plenty of untapped upside still remaining within him. Of course, figuring out how high his ceiling goes is the real challenge. And while he did offer nice scoring insurance last fall, Wilson will need to make noticeable improvements (along with Spencer, Ellenberg and Truchon) in order to collectively make up for the lost scoring of Jackson Sharp.
We then come to Josh Truchon, one of the more challenging middle-lineup scorers who we've had to analyze.
As a sophomore, most of Truchon's cross country season was largely unexciting, placing 26th and 25th at the BIG 10 XC Championships and the Great Lakes regional meet, respectively. But then Truchon had the race of his life at the NCAA XC Championships, producing a 75th place finish that far exceeded what we thought he was capable of.
We have no idea how to categorize this Wisconsin talent. Was that national meet performance a proper indication of his fitness? Can he translate that effort consistently to the 2024 cross country season? Was his lead-up to the national meet a more appropriate gauge of what he'll do this fall?
At the end of the day, Truchon is likely the biggest x-factor on this team as we enter the next few months. The best version of Truchon more-than-adequately fills Evan Bishop's former role as a scorer, but it's also not safe to assume that we'll get that version of him in each of his outings.
* * *
We'll admit, we're not always sure what we're going to get from some of Wisconsin's guys throughout a season. That's why their roster depth could be important to watch as they aim to find another impact scorer.
One of those men could be Logan Measner, someone who just had a brilliant spring campaign in the steeplechase. The BIG 10 steeplechase title winner ran 8:37 in the event and had a shot of qualifying for the outdoor national meet had he not sustained an injury at the East Regional Championships.
Sure, Measner's cross country resume is bare relative to the rest of his already-mentioned teammates. But running 8:37 over the barriers and water pits is not a result to ignore when talking about potential scorers for this fall.
The Badgers also added Johnny Livingstone to their roster this past winter via a transfer from Tulsa. After showing promise as a prep runner and as a freshman, Livingstone now moves to a program that perfectly fits his strength-based skillset.
Livingstone had a solid outdoor track season this past spring, running in the low 13:50s for 5000 meters. But it also feels like this former Tulsa runner is capable of offering more. Thankfully, this fall will be a good opportunity to see if the UK native will be able to emerge as a top-seven, or even top-five, come November.
Matan Ivri was brought onto the team last year with a 5k PR of 13:57 from May of 2023. The only issue, however, is that Ivri hasn't (knowingly) raced in a Badger singlet yet in any season of competition. He'll be a name to monitor, but our analysis largely stops there.
Oliver Paleen is someone who this team leaned on as a backend lineup contributor throughout last fall. However, he was kept out of the Badgers' national meet group.
Like Livingstone, we think Oliver Paleen holds great potential as a scorer for Wisconsin at some point this season or beyond. But truthfully, last year wasn't too exciting of a fall campaign for someone who also has great pedigree. Could that change in the coming months? Definitely, but until then, he'll be one of the guys fighting a spot at the backend of this lineup.
We should also highlight Archie Noakes, the transfer from Oregon.
Noakes first joined the Ducks by coming over from Australia where he produced outstanding marks of 4:01 (mile), 7:53 (3k) and 13:52 (5k) as a prep talent. On paper, he was someone who could be a high-impact name as a true freshman.
However, Noakes finished just one race with Oregon (running 8:08 for 3k) and recorded a DNF result elsewhere before not competing for the rest of the year. Now, he'll get a brand new start with a roster and a coach who have been known to develop some of Australia's best distance runners (recent names include Adam Spencer, Oliver Hoare and Morgan McDonald).
Noakes is a massive x-factor for Wisconsin this fall. If he fully translates his raw talent to the grass, then the Badgers will almost certainly be a top-10 team in 2024. That, of course, is not at all a given.
Other men such as Nick Gilles (8:58 in steeple) and Pierce Seigne (14:07 for 5k) are also names to potentially consider as lineup possibilities for Wisconsin this fall.
* * *
When you take a step back and think about it, the dichotomy of this team feels fairly unique. Wisconsin has a reputation for being a steady and reliable top-tier cross country program. However, many of the men on their current roster have left us asking, "What do we think we're going to get out of this guy?" more than two or three times.
And yet, despite the seemingly volatile cross country resumes that a few of these men have, the amount of depth on this roster may make that concern moot. The Badgers have numerous athletes who could step into scoring roles or have major breakout seasons this fall. In fact, it almost feels like a guarantee.
Of course, trying to figure out how much they'll improve by and how many other core scorers will remain in top form is the trickiest aspect of all.
Regardless, Coach Mick Byrne has been one of the best in the business when it comes to consistently crafting nationally competitive cross country lineups, especially over the last two years. This fall will not exactly be an easy season for him, but it also won't be his hardest.
And who knows? Maybe this is the team that avenges last year's group and stands on the podium come November...
