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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Women): #12 Virginia Cavaliers
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 21, 2024
- 8 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
The rise of the Virginia women over the last few years has been fascinating to watch. It has taken time, and the journey to this point has felt roller coaster-like, but the Cavaliers are now seemingly positioned to take that next leap.
We just don't know when that will be.
This fall, the goal for the UVA women will be to validate their tremendous 9th place finish from the 2022 national meet while making further progress in developing future long-term scorers. Doing so will make this group a top-10 squad, but just how deep into the top-10 can the Cavaliers go over the next few months?
I suppose we're about to find out...
* * *
The Virginia Invitational was the first major meet of the season for the Cavaliers. It also happened to be one of multiple home meets that the ladies from Charlottesville would have throughout the fall months.
Margot Appleton kicked things off with a fantastic 3rd place finish, a huge low-stick result which validated all of the success that she had on the track the year before. Behind her was a trio of surprisingly strong support scorers in Anna Workman (19th), Jenny Schilling (23rd) and Caroline Timm (27th).
With an impressive quartet all finishing within the top-30, Sophie Atkinson (51st) was able to close out the scoring with a decent result of her own. However, that backend gap would need to be closed at future races.
Regardless, Virginia snagged an excellent 3rd place finish behind only Northern Arizona and Stanford. It was a fantastic start to a season that would eventually culminate in the Cavaliers hosting the national meet.
Fast forward to Pre-Nationals, yet another meet on UVA's home course. There, the Cavaliers put together a mixed bag of results which left us at The Stride Report shrugging our shoulders and thinking, "That was just okay."
Appleton (4th) was a clutch low-stick yet again while Workman (11th) and Schilling (13th) gave Virginia a formidable top-three. But from there, gaps began to form. Atkinson (31st) had a fine outing while Timm (46th) had a bit of an "off" day compared to her Virginia Invitational performance.
The Virginia women would once again settle for a 3rd place effort. They fell to both BYU and Arkansas, although they were still able to get wins over Oregon and Tennessee. Thankfully, knowing how much better Caroline Timm could be in the future did leave us with the feeling that this team still had plenty of upside.
The ACC XC Championships were next on the docket for UVA. That meet, of course, was going to be won by NC State. However, the battle for a runner-up finish is where things became interesting.
Yet again, Margot Appleton (5th) offered awesome firepower while Jenny Schilling (10th) continued to make subtly-great improvements. This time, Caroline Timm (15th) had a very respectable rebound race while Anna Workman (20th) held her own.
However, it until freshman Gillian Bushee crossing the line 34th place for the Cavaliers (which was actually a solid result for a true rookie) to close out their scoring. In turn, Virginia had to settle for a narrow 3rd place effort, just two points behind Notre Dame.
After advancing out of the Southeast regional meet, the Cavaliers toed the line on their home course for the third time that season. And given all of the experience that they had racing and training on their home course, the expectations were high for this team to match their 9th place finish from the 2022 NCAA XC Championships.
Unfortunately, that didn't happen.
Jenny Schilling (39th) was great, capping off a huge breakout season for someone who was previously a club runner. That All-American performance was complemented by Margot Appleton (51st) who held her own, but almost certainly could have been 30 spots higher at her best.
Anna Workman (105th) had a decent enough outing while Camryn Menninger (158th) and Gillian Bushee (159th) closed out the team's scoring. But at the end of the day, that was only enough for the Cavaliers to place 15th overall at the NCAA XC Championships.
* * *
Virginia's 2023 cross country season left us scratching our heads at times. Their 3rd place effort at the Virginia Invitational was very impressive and their 3rd place outings at Pre-Nationals and the ACC XC Championships were respectable. Unfortunately, the national meet was not their best day.
Even so, there are far more reasons to be optimistic about the Virginia women going into this fall rather than pessimistic. The Cavaliers return all but one runner from their 2023 lineup and that fact alone should boost this group to a slightly higher tier based on general growth alone.
Admittedly, UVA's lone departure is tough to overlook. Anna Workman is seemingly out of cross country eligibility (she is not listed on the Cavs' roster) and she was a crucial contributor last fall.
Finishes of 19th at the Virginia Invitational and 11th at Pre-Nationals were borderline low-stick finishes. And while finishes of 20th at the ACC XC Championships and 105th at the NCAA XC Championships weren't quite as strong, Workman still offered respectable scoring value.
Thankfully, the reinforcements for UVA are plentiful and there is still a great core of women, many of whom could be viewed as underrated talents.
One of those potentially underrated women is Jenny Schilling, someone who was once a club runner until Virginia brought her onto the team. And yet, despite her NCAA inexperience, Schilling placed 23rd at the Virginia Invitational, 13th at Pre-Nationals, 10th at the ACC XC Championships and 39th (All-American) at the national meet.
If Schilling was so effective as a low-stick last fall without any prior NCAA experience, then how dangerous can she be in 2024? In theory, Schilling should have a good bit of untapped upside that she could showcase later this fall.
But maybe the most valuable aspect of Schilling's resume is the fact that she is so darn reliable. Her consistency as a low-stick should keep Virginia's floor fairly high later this fall.
The other low-stick on this team is Margot Appleton, an incredibly talented veteran who will give this squad a lethal 1-2 punch alongside Schilling (again).
Appleton is best known for her prowess on the track, running times of 4:29 (mile), 8:57 (3k) and 15:18 (5k). She has also collected numerous All-American honors on the oval.
Last fall, the UVA star earned a huge 3rd place finish at the Virginia Invitational before securing 4th place at Pre-Nationals. And after placing 5th at the ACC XC Championships, Appleton had a bit of an "off" day at the national meet, taking 51st place overall.
Despite the fairly obvious fluke that she had at the NCAA XC Championships, Appleton's value as a low-stick ace was evident at multiple major races last fall. And for a team that is aiming to crack the top-10 (or better) this fall, knowing that their focal star can still cut-off a sizable portion of points at this year's national meet should be viewed as a huge positive.
* * *
We then come to the rest of this Virginia squad which is not quite as clear-cut, especially now that Anna Workman is no longer with the team.
Caroline Timm is a true veteran who, initially, we thought was out of eligibility. However, a glance at Virginia's updated roster suggests that she will return. That is a great development for a team that will live and die by their backend scorers.
At her best, Timm is a much better cross country runner than some people may realize. A 27th place finish at the Virginia Invitational is a result that borders on the line of being a "lead scoring" performance.
Admittedly, Timm would go on to have mixed results for the rest of the season. Her 15th place finish at the ACC XC Championships was quietly great, but her other results weren't quite as strong by comparison.
If Timm is firing on all cylinders this fall, then Virginia will have a very good chance at being a top-10 team. And while we may not always know which version of her we're getting on the grass, we do actually know how effective she can be as a scorer -- there's no need to project or guess about what she's capable of.
Camryn Menninger and Sophie Atkinson are two crucial veterans. Together, they will be responsible for ensuring that Virginia's floor for success remains fairly high this fall.
The former did race much last fall, but she was subtly-great in 2022 after finishing 5th at the Panorama Farms Invitational and then 12th at the ACC XC Championships. The latter placed 46th at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships and had a more consistent presence last fall.
Both of those women have had multiple moments of promise which suggest that they can be impactful scorers this fall. The only issue, however, is that their best results are from 2022 and their performances in 2023 weren't exactly encouraging.
The best versions of Menninger and Atkinson make the Cavaliers a very exciting team. Yes, their consistency will need to be better, but even if just one of those women showcases their true talent in 2024, then that should be considered a win.
And how about the younger runners like Gillian Bushee and Tatum David? Both of those women are rising sophomores (the latter was redshirted in 2023) and the former was able to get NCAA cross country experience last fall.
Last year, Bushee placed 60th at the Virginia Invitational, 55th at Pre-Nationals, 34th at the ACC XC Championships and 159th at the NCAA XC Championships. Sure, none of those results are jaw-dropping by any means, but for a true freshman, those were encouraging early-career efforts that she can build on.
Of course, it's Tatum David who could truly boost this team to another -- that is, assuming that she'll be available to race.
The rising redshirt freshman was absent throughout last fall. She then competed in two meets during the winter months and later ended her spring campaign back in late April after the Penn Relays.
David, for those who don't know, was a high school superstar. The Illinois native boasted incredible times of 4:35 (mile), 9:48 (3200) and 16:04 (three-miles XC) during prep days. She also placed 8th at NXN back in 2022.
A healthy Tatum David running to her full potential completely changes the complexion of this team. If that happens, then the Cavaliers have a third low-stick and more than enough depth to carry this team through the postseason. Of course, the lack of racing and availability isn't the greatest sign, especially with David's prior history of injury.
Regardless, David may be a huge "wild card," but she can only add to Virginia's success from last year.
Other women such as Addison Cox or even UVA's impressive group of recruits (Stella Kermes, Tatum Olesen, Ella Woehlcke, etc.) could find their way into the team's top-seven at some point this fall. However, if we had to guess, we would say that Mary Ellen Eudaly, the team's newest transfer pick-up from Arkansas, will end up as a key backend contributor.
Eudaly, a 4:36 miler, produced a handful of respectable results for the Razorbacks last fall. The Florida native placed 40th at Pre-Nationals, 20th at the SEC XC Championships and 139th at the NCAA XC Championships. And while those aren't necessarily program-altering performances, they do show us that Eudaly can be a great safety net for Virginia should they need it.
And who knows? Maybe the former Arkansas runner continues to improve and ends up cracking the Cavaliers' top-five later this fall.
* * *
On paper, Virginia has a truly complete and balanced team.
They have two upper-echelon low-sticks, multiple experienced middle-lineup scorers who each have high ceilings, tons of younger runners with great upside and no shortage of depth. That is great roster construction from Coach Joelle Amaral and UVA's coaching staff.
It's hard to envision Virginia having a season where they truly struggle. Despite their TSR #12 preseason ranking, we would be fairly surprised if the Cavalier women end up outside of the top-15 -- one "off" day from one of their scorers shouldn't, in theory, cause a collapse like it would for a large handful of other groups.
But what is this team truly capable of? What happens if everything breaks in their favor? What happens if all of the non-low-sticks on this team realize their full potential and display it on a consistent basis?
Well, it's a bit hard to imagine, but in that scenario, the Cavaliers could very realistically emerge as fringe contenders for the podium this fall.
