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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Men): #13 Butler Bulldogs
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 20, 2024
- 7 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
Click here to read up our TSR #14 team, Harvard Crimson
I was eager to write this article, mainly because I am probably the biggest believer and proponent of what the Butler men are capable of doing this fall.
In recent years, the Bulldogs have been a very solid and nationally competitive team that have often made it to the NCAA XC Championships. In fact, back in the winter of 2021 (during pandemic-altered season), the Butler men finished 13th as a team at the NCAA Winter XC Championships.
But as we prepare for the fall of 2024, we can't help but think that the Butler men are already at that level before this season even begins, thus granting them this preseason ranking. On paper, they're an incredibly balanced squad with a low-stick veteran, a possible second lead scorer, tons of depth and plenty of upside.
With a few years of experience and lineup cohesion now under their belts, we think that the Butler men have a chance to be a top-10 team by the end of the season.
* * *
Butler's 2024 cross country season started off at the Virginia Invitational where they would face a herd of loaded distance squads. Florian LePallec (9th) had an excellent race, delivering on the low-stick potential that we knew he held. And while the rest of his teammates were a bit further back, the trio of William Zegarski, Matthew Forrester and Will Minnette went 45-47-52, respectively, to offer commendable scoring stability.
Unfortunately, their final scorer didn't cross the line until 107th place, holding their team score back from truly contending with many higher-ranked squads. Even so, Butler secured an 8th place finish, taking down the likes of Stanford, Eastern Kentucky, Wake Forest, Colorado and Iowa State in the process.
It wasn't a perfect race, but for the most part, the Virginia Invitational was a success.
The Nuttycombe Invitational, of course, would pose an even greater challenge than what the Bulldogs had seen in Charlottesville, Virginia. And to be blunt, the Bulldogs did not run well at all when they visited Wisconsin.
Florian Le Pallec (47th) had a fine outing, but he likely could have been better. Forrester (101st) and Zegarski (105th) had "just okay" races, but they could have placed around 30 spots higher (each). With Butler's final two scorers placing 149th and 186th, the Bulldogs had to settle for a highly underwhelming 24th place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite.
After seeing their momentum take a hit at the Nuttycombe Invite, the Butler men likely came into the BIG East XC Championships hungry to prove themselves. And while there was no denying that they were still a great team, it was also clear that the Villanova men boasted the better squad...
...well, except for the day in question.
In what turned out to be a fairly sizable upset, the Bulldogs took down a top-heavy lineup from Villanova by packing three men in the top-five. With Le Pallec, Zegarski and Forrester going 3-4-5, all Butler needed was a good enough backend to fend off the Wildcats. And with Will Minnette (10th) and Jesse Hamlin (14th) coming through in the cutch, the upset was complete.
Butler had defeated Villanova for the BIG East title by a fairly convincing six points.
After advancing to the NCAA XC Championships, Butler faced another large and crowded field that gave them some challenges at the Nuttycombe Invitational. And unfortunately for the Bulldogs, the end result wasn't much better.
Florian LePallec (65th) had another "fine" race while Matthew Forrester (88th) put together a very solid showing. Jesse Hamlin (89th), after mostly being a non-factor for most of the fall months, stepped up admirably despite his raw talent suggesting that he can offer more. But then Zegarski (161st) sustained an injury mid-race, forcing him to fade hard before their final scorer settled for 191st overall.
In the end, Butler would finish 21st overall. It was a decent result in the grand scheme of things, but multiple moments fall suggested that they were probably than that.
* * *
This is usually the part where we talk about all of the men who Butler lost from the year before and take a deep dive as to what kind of impact that could have. However, the only man who the Bulldogs lose from last fall is Jack McMahon, someone who likely would have sacrificed his spot in this year's lineup anyway.
With everyone else returning and a few newcomers also joining the team, it's hard to envision a season where Butler isn't noticeably better than they were last year.
What we really like about Florian Le Pallec is that he's super consistent. He never had a single "off" day last year and he even flashed signs of being an All-American-caliber low-stick after placing 9th at the Virginia Invitational.
However, outside of that first race, Le Pallec will simply need to better going into these fall months. He's a very safe lead scorer to have, but he needs to be more potent as a low-stick if Butler is going to have any chance of being a top-10 squad this fall.
That message also applies to Jesse Hamlin, a long-time veteran who has had a large handful of exciting moments on the track. Remember, this guy ran 7:44 for 3000 meters back in the winter of 2023 and was an 8th place All-American in that event, too. He also placed 8th in the 5k at this year's outdoor national meet after running a huge mark of 13:27 (5k) at the Bryan Clay Invitational following a win at the Raleigh Relays.
Hamlin's latest spring campaign was incredibly impressive. He has had great seasons before, but his skillset leaned more aerobic-centric this past spring than it ever has before. That's huge development for a Butler program that very much needs the firepower.
If Hamlin and Le Pallec both deliver on their full potential, then Butler is going to be an even scarier team than this ranking suggests. The only catch is that Hamlin, while usually solid, doesn't have much on his resume in terms of exciting cross country results.
But the two men who are arguably the most important runners on this team are Matthew Forrester and William Zegarski. This is a crucial season where they could finally break through to that next level and become some of the most impactful middle-lineup scorers in the country (relative to the rest of their team).
Throughout las fall, both Forrester and Zegarski were excellent support pieces. Finishing in the top-five at the BIG East XC Championships, along with Forrester finishing in the top-90 at the national meet, signaled that these men are at least capable of being even more potent scorers with greater experience and general growth.
Yes, Zegarski and Forrester were absent from competition this past spring, opting into a redshirt season. That, however, was likely in preparation for an upcoming fall campaign that could potentially be huge for Butler.
* * *
The quartet of Le Pallec, Hamlin, Zegarski and Forrester is likely going to be the main identity of this squad over the next few months. However, Butler's supporting cast leaves us with a lot of uncertainty, mainly regarding who is going to fill out the latter-half of this team's top-seven.
Austin Gabay is a graduate transfer from Duke who many of us at The Stride Report are fairly excited about. Gabay feels like a runner similar to Zegarski and Forrester, finishing 42nd at the Virginia Invitational and 24th at the ACC XC Championships last fall.
Sure, some of Gabay's performances on the grass have been better than others, but there is no denying that he is favored to be the team's fifth scorer this fall. Recent personal bests of 3:40 (1500), 7:58 (3k) and 13:58 (5k) don't jump off the page, but they do showcase further growth which isn't always a given with more veteran distance runners.
David Slapak was only a freshman last year and he made great progress on the track this past winter and spring. The Czech distance runner has posted times of 3:41 (1500), 7:56 (3k) and 13:55 (5k). He admittedly didn't play much of a role for Butler last fall, but he did gain experience at all of their main meets.
How about Martin Kovacech? The Bulldog veteran not only ran a fantastic time of 8:41 in the steeplechase, but he also barely missed out on qualifying for the outdoor national meet this past spring, placing 13th in that event at the East Regional Championships.
We'll admit, Kovacech hasn't had a major presence for Butler throughout his career on the grass. Even so, running as fast as 8:41 in the steeplechase indicates that he's at least capable of being a valuable contributor to his team this fall.
Newcomers such as Luke Henseler (5th at Mid-Atlantic, transfer via Pitt), Tomer Mualem (8:49 steeplechaser) and Seth Mahony (14:23 for 5k at 17 years old) have all shown some level of promise. Their resumes aren't quite as complete as some of the men mentioned above, but that doesn't mean that they won't have a shot at cracking this team's top-seven. The same can be said Matteo Rosio, a redshirt freshman who ran 14:19 (5k) this past spring.
* * *
Truthfully, there isn't much to dislike about this group. They don't seem to have any major shortcomings, at least not when we evaluate the current state their roster.
Of course, not having any glaring flaws doesn't necessarily mean that a team is perfect or unbeatable.
We still need Le Pallec to consistently deliver on his full potential and we still need to see Hamlin translate his track success to the grass. Zegarski and Forrester have been great over the last year or two, but there is clearly another level that they have yet to reach. The depth on this team is plentiful, but can Coach Matt Roe figure out which combination of men most effectively negates the scoring gaps in front of them?
Natural growth and experience should automatically elevate this team beyond what they accomplished last year. But if the Bulldogs want to be a top-10 group, then their top-four men need to reach the highest ends of their upside in order for that to happen.
13th place is the highest that Coach Matt Roe has ever finished at an NCAA XC Championship. That, of course, is seemingly primed to change this fall.
Back in 2021, I interviewed Coach Matt Roe for a piece on MileSplit.
His final message during in article? "We feel really good about our chances long-term."
Well, the long-term is now the present, and Coach Matt Roe isn't the only one feeling good about his team's chances this fall.
