TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #19 Syracuse Orange

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

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Click here to see our "Just Missed" & "Honorable Mention" teams

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Despite the confidence that we have in our research and analysis, we don't always get our preseason rankings right -- and the Syracuse men would likely agree with that statement after what happened this time last year.

Going into the 2022 cross country season, we listed the Syracuse men as an "Honorable Mention" squad. They had lost their top-three men as well as their sixth runner. The rest of their lineup simply wasn't proven enough and there was a significant lack of scoring potency set to return.

It may have seemed aggressive at the time, but we simply didn't know where the Orange men were going to get any legitimate scoring going into last year.

Of course, the Syracuse men ended up being fantastic last fall, showcasing great depth, excellent scoring reliability, veteran leadership and in-season development. Now, as the Orange enter the fall of 2023, they are faced with another series of important departures.

Except this time, we'll have learned our lesson.

* * *

The Cowboy Jamboree was the first major test of the season for the Syracuse men -- and it wasn't going to be easy. With numerous upper-tier programs headlining the field and the depth looking far stronger than any other September-time meet in NCAA history, the Orange were going to be in store for a major challenge.

But for the most part, they handled their competition very well.

In what was a clear pack-running effort, the combination of Paul O'Donnell, Assaf Harari, Nathan Lawler and Nathan Henderson went 31-34-35-41 in the overall results. And while the team lacked a focal low-stick, the non-existent gaps among their top-four scorers basically made that negligible.

With Noah Carey closing out the scoring in 62nd place, it was hard to say that any of Syracuse's scorers had a poor race. In fact, this team as a whole ran incredibly well and they were rewarded with an 8th place team finish, 21 points ahead of an Air Force squad that would end up being extremely formidable.

The Syracuse men had to be happy with their first nationally competitive race of the season. They still had to develop a true low-stick or have Carey cut down the gap ahead of him, but generally speaking, the Cowboy Jamboree was a success.

The men from upstate New York would later venture to the Nuttycombe Invitational where they validated their Cowboy Jamboree result with a similarly-impressive 13th place finish.

Nathan Lawler's 27th place finish could have been argued as a legitimate low-stick result which, in retrospect, was able to counter a few (still small) gaps that formed in Syracuse's top-five scoring group.

Even so, the final four Orange scorers of Noah Carey, Nathan Henderson, Assaf Harari and Sam Lawler all posted finishes of 67-86-92-99, respectively. And with all five men cracking the top-100 of a major meet like the Nuttycombe Invite, it was fair to suggest that this team still didn't have any legitimate lineup flaws.

Heck, that was with Paul O'Donnell not having his best race and fading to 143rd place!

But the ACC XC Championships, in theory, could have been a different monster. The field was completely different, structurally, but it was still highly competitive. Between Wake Forest, Virginia, North Carolina, NC State and Notre Dame, the Orange men were going to have their hands full with a variety of different lineups.

Or so we thought.

The Wake Forest men easily took home the title, but it was Syracuse that once again came through, this time taking 2nd place to defeat Notre Dame by a single point.

Nathan Lawler's 7th place finish further validated his role as a true low-stick while Noah Carey had another great race of his own, placing 12th overall. From there, the Orange did experience a few gaps, but they weren't devastating.

Sam Lawler (19th), Paul O'Donnell (22nd) and Nathan Henderson (26th) all held their own and gave Syracuse yet another complete team performance void of any major drop-offs in their scoring. It was a fantastic result as the team prepared for the 10k racing distance.

After advancing out of the Northeast region, the Syracuse men would field a lineup on the national stage that, as we had seen at the Nuttycombe Invite, was conducive to significant success in larger fields.

And sure enough, that's what we saw.

Nathan Lawler's 46th placer finish, while maybe not perfect, was still very solid. Meanwhile, Paul O'Donnell may have had the best race of anyone on that team (relative to expectations) with a 58th place finish.

Nathan Henderson (81st) and Noah Carey (82nd) would provide highly valuable stability in the middle portion of Syracuse's lineup before Sam Lawler crossed the line (110th), doing just enough to give the Orange a competitive team score.

That, in turn, led to Syracuse posting a strong 12th place team finish, just six points behind NC State and well ahead of where we had projected this team to be three months prior.

* * *

The same concerns that we had about Syracuse last fall are present yet again as we enter the 2023 cross country season. They still have a few key weapons, but many of their top veterans who made this program so strong last year are now gone.

However, when you step back and look at the men who are returning, plus the newcomers who are joining Syracuse later this fall, you can at least piece together a cohesive scoring group that could be plenty competitive in the coming months.

Of course, the biggest headache will be the one that Coach Brien Bell has to deal with -- recovering from the losses of Paul O'Donnell, Noah Carey and Nathan Henderson.

Those three men, as a collective trio, made up the backbone of the Orange's lineup last fall. They were (for the most part) super consistent, offered tremendous scoring stability and often kept lineup gaps at a minimum.

Sure, none of those men were true low-sticks, or even lead scorers, but their value was far greater than some people realized. And although we'd like to give Syracuse the benefit of the doubt that they'll be able to rally from those departures, putting them at a spot better than TSR #19, at least for now, would feel aggressively generous.

But unlike the fall of 2022, we can actually see an avenue for immediate reconstruction when it comes to this team's lineup in 2023. On paper, The Stride Report thinks that we can find at least five men who would be effective scoring contributors by November, maybe just as much as O'Donnell, Carey and Henderson were.

* * *

Nathan Lawler is a great name to have back. He evolved into a fantastic low-stick throughout last fall and only got better as the season progressed.

Sure, there were other teams who had better low-stick talents than Lawler, but given Syracuse's lineup structure, that didn't matter too much. And now, as we enter the fall of 2023, Lawler looks like he can not only be a true ace for the Orange, but he can also make sizable improvements and cut-off some scoring from last year.

Lawler can only improve so much at meets like the ACC XC Championships, but an improvement on stages like the Cowboy Jamboree, the Nuttycombe Invitational or the national meet could yield 10 to 15 fewer points.

And most importantly, he's reliable. For a team that is going to be looking to piece together their lineup this fall, the Syracuse men will take whatever scoring certainty they can get, especially from their top talent.

But what if I told you that Lawler may not be the only low-stick on this team? Naturally, that could be a confusing statement given that O'Donnell, Carey and Henderson are now gone.

When you look at the credentials of incoming graduate transfer Perry Mackinnon, you can see why the Orange may actually have more firepower in the fall of 2023 compared to last year.

This former Cornell runner has been a "good" cross country runner at the national level, but he hasn't necessarily been "great," either. Last fall, Mackinnon finished 13th at Paul Short before ripping off top-six finishes at the IC4A XC Championships, the Ivy League XC Championships and the Northeast Regional XC Championships.

He would later end his season with a 124th place finish on the national stage.

Based on just those results, Mackinnon should fill a key lineup gap within Syracuse's top-five. However, his role as a potential low-stick was more apparent during the spring months. On the outdoor oval, this Canadian distance runner dropped massive times of 13:33 (5k) and 28:33 (10k), ultimately qualifying for the national meet in the latter event.

And when you look at the list of men who have run those kinds of times, you'll find that most of them were All-Americans on the grass.

We still need to see Mackinnon translate his track success to cross country. After all, running 13:33 (5k) and 28:33 (10k) doesn't mean the same thing as it used to.

Even so, it would be hard to envision this former Cornell distance talent to not be a great secondary scorer for this team in 2023 -- maybe in the same way that Jesse Hamlin (Butler) or Brett Gardner (NC State) were for their respective teams last year.

But in the grand scheme of things, it's the rest of this lineup that will ultimately determine how far the Syracuse men go.

* * *

Sam Lawler and Assaf Harari are the perfect men to fill the third and fourth scoring spots in Syracuse's lineup this fall, especially for a team ranked at TSR #19.

Last fall, Harari showcased his exciting scoring potential by placing 34th at the Cowboy Jamboree and then 92nd at the Nuttycombe Invitational. However, a somewhat underwhelming effort at the ACC XC Championships led to a respectable, but unexciting, 123rd place finish at the NCAA XC Championships.

Despite slowing down just the slightest bit in the postseason, Harari still proved to be incredibly talented. His performance at the Cowboy Jamboree is hard to ignore, even if it was in the month of September. And with a year of adjusting to the NCAA, this rising sophomore could be an even more impactful scorer going into 2023.

If you don't believe me, just look at his credentials from the track. Times of 13:59 (5k) and 28:55 (10k) for a high-upside rookie, the former of which was run in the spring of 2022, should leave Syracuse plenty encouraged about what they could get out of their Israeli distance ace in the coming months.

It's a similar story for Sam Lawler, the younger brother of Nathan Lawler. Despite graduating high school in 2020, last year was the first full cross country season of Sam's collegiate career. And for someone who had barely ever raced in a Syracuse singlet on the grass before, he had a great fall campaign.

We'll admit, finishes of 73rd at the Cowboy Jamboree, 99th at the Nuttycombe Invite, 19th at the ACC XC Championships and 110th at the NCAA XC Championships don't necessarily blow you away. However, those results do showcase tremendous consistency as well as stability -- and in our eyes, that's a highly valuable aspect.

Lawler didn't race on the track this past spring, but we did see him on the indoor oval where he ran a new 5k PR of 13:52. And for a guy who should have plenty of natural growth left within him, that's a strong mark as we enter the fall months.

Of course, even if he doesn't improve, then you still have to like the quartet of scorers that the Syracuse men have assembled. On paper, they all provide great reliability and some level of potent upside.

It's the rest of this team, however, that leaves us with questions.

There are a handful of men on this roster who we could point to as potential varsity contributors for later this year. However, the two men who are impossible to ignore are incoming rookies, Connor Ackley and Benne Anderson.

On paper, that duo perfectly fits the mold of what makes Syracuse great. They are true aerobic-centric talents who thrive as the racing distances get longer. They're arguably better on the grass than they are the track.

Ackley has run 4:06 (mile), 8:51 (two miles) and 14:29 (5k XC). The Ohio native finished 18th at the 2022 NXN Championships and later improved to 5th place at the 2022 Champs Sports XC National Championships.

Anderson, meanwhile, was just as good and holds a cross country resume that is extremely similar to Ackley's. He ran times of 4:01 (1600), 8:40 (3200) and 14:29 (5k XC). He also finished 9th at the 2022 NXN Championships and 17th at the Champs Sports XC National Championships.

Simply put, these two young men are juggernauts on the grass.

The current understanding at The Stride Report is that those two freshmen are going to be redshirted. And if that's the case, then you can largely ignore this section. However, given the uncertainty surrounding Syracuse's depth this fall, we can't help but wonder if those redshirts will be lifted and this rookie duo will enter the Orange's lineup anyway.

We wouldn't totally ignore that possibility.

As for the rest of this lineup, men such as Alex Comerford, Silas Derfel, Noah Beveridge, Matthew Scrape and Kamari Miller are key names to watch. Scrape, Comerford and Beveridge have all had previous moments in their collegiate careers which suggest that they can at least be passable fifth scorers.

Of course, trying to figure out, a) who that fifth scorer will be, and b) if any of them will return to that form, is admittedly a bit of a challenge.

* * *

At the end of the day, the Syracuse men should still be plenty competitive despite losing a crucial trio of veteran scorers. They have a low-stick, a lead scorer via a transfer scenario, high-upside returners and experienced depth.

Yes, it's true, some of these men require projection and speculation. We don't know if Perry Mackinnon is going to get better on the grass after his breakout year on the track. We also don't know how much better Sam Lawler and Assaf Harari are going to be, if at all.

And with plenty of questions surrounding the make up of the second-half of this lineup, placing Syracuse at TSR #19 feels like a fair spot.

But at the same time, the Orange have a much clearer avenue towards major success this year than they did last year -- and they were still really darn good in 2022! On paper, they have the necessary pieces to be a significant problem for their ACC rivals and if their backend comes through, then they'll continue to be void of weaknesses.

Of course, that's all speculation.

We'll have to see if that's actually the case in the coming months...