TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #20 Wisconsin Badgers

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

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Click here to see our "Just Missed" & "Honorable Mention" teams

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Expectations were high for the Wisconsin women last year. The Badgers were returning a heavy portion of a successful team from the fall of 2021, theoretically giving them some of the best depth in the NCAA.

And for the most part, that was the case.

But the loss of a key low-stick going into last year made it challenging for the Badgers to stand out as much as we thought they would. They had plenty of lineup options, but some races were better than others and their consistency left room for improvement.

However, with minimal lineup losses and just-as-good depth, the Wisconsin women should remain as competitive in 2023 as they were in 2022.

* * *

The Badgers first began their 2022 cross country season at the Griak Invitational, one of the better early-season meets of the year. There, they faced top programs such as Utah, California Baptist, Michigan State, Colorado State and Ohio State...but fell to all of them.

Shea Ruhly was great in her season debut, dropping a very strong 5th place finish to act as a low-stick for the Wisconsin women. Unfortunately, she was the only true bright spot for her team. Samantha Stieve held her own in 15th place finish and Lucinda Crouch was fine in 23rd place, but the Badgers' final two scorers placed 39th and 43rd overall.

In the end, Wisconsin would settle for an underwhelming 6th place finish -- but there were a few silver linings.

Victoria Heiligenthal (39th) clearly had the potential to be better. We also didn't see key names such as Alexa Westley and Stella Gillman toe the line for the Wisconsin women that day. In other words, this was not a performance that we (or anyone) should have been looking too deeply into.

Sure enough, the Nuttycombe Invitational (which was hosted on Wisconsin's home course) yielded stronger results.

On larger stages, the Badgers' depth proved to be a key differentiating factor.

Ruhly was solid yet again, this time placing 54th overall. Meanwhile, Samantha Stieve (87th) and Victoria Heiligenthal (97th) offered great value of their own with top-100 finishes. With Lucinda Crouch (128th) and Emma Watcke (143rd) avoiding any excessive scoring, the Wisconsin women had a day to be proud of, finishing 14th overall in the team standings.

Sure, it wasn't a perfect race, and there was clearly a need for greater firepower, but in a larger field like Nuttycombe, their lineup structure worked fairly well.

The BIG 10 XC Championships, however, left us wanting more.

In a year where the conference felt deep, but not top-heavy, it was the Badgers who faded to 3rd place in the team standings. Ruhly posted a respectable 8th place finish while Stieve and Crouch placed 13th and 14th, respectively.

With their final two scorers settling for 29th and 30th place finishes, the Badgers just didn't have enough scoring to remain competitive with Michigan or Michigan State. The gap between the two halves of their top-five wasn't great to see, either.

After cruising through the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships, the Wisconsin women ventured to the NCAA XC Championships. In theory, their lineup structure was going to be conducive to a successful race -- the Nuttycombe Invitational was clear evidence of that.

In the end, the Wisconsin women gave us a result that was better than their effort from the BIG 10 XC Championships, but not as strong as what they gave us earlier in the season at the Nuttycombe Invite.

Ruhly's 94th place finish was fine, but she was clearly someone who we were hoping to be in the top-70 or top-80. Meanwhile, Stieve held her own, placing 97th, while Crouch finished 104th place overall.

Victoria Heiligenthal (149th) and Vivian Hacker (160th) closed out the scoring. And while there weren't any dramatic drop-offs in the Badgers' top-five, the lack of firepower and a true low-stick was glaring. And as a result, the Wisconsin women ended their season with a 19th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships.

* * *

It's not hard to understand or analyze last year's team for Wisconsin. They were deep, but lacked some much needed firepower. Some races were great while others were just "ok," but at least there weren't any true "bad" races (if we're ignoring Griak Invite).

And as we venture into the fall of 2023, we're not sure the story is going to be any different.

This fall, the Badgers return a heavy portion of their lineup from last fall -- six of their top-seven, in fact. And yes, they are expected to lose a key scorer in Lucinda Crouch, but the introduction of graduate transfer Maya Rayle from Harvard (who we'll discuss later) effectively negates that loss.

We'll also admit that there's some head-scratching TFRRS eligibility throughout this roster. We have every reason to believe that Crouch and Stella Gilman are the only women from last year's varsity lineups who are departing (or out of cross country eligibility), but we're not quite as confident on that as a few other programs.

Even so, this team should largely be the same as they were last year. And generally speaking, that's why they come in ranked at almost the exact same spot as where they finished at last year's national meet.

* * *

Shea Ruhly is the main focal point of this team. She was the Badgers' lead scorer throughout last fall and a fairly consistent talent at the top of their lineup.

Admittedly, Ruhly wasn't necessarily a true low-stick last fall and some of her races could have been better. It also doesn't help that we have't seen her race since late February. That's not a great sign going into a cross country season where the Wisconsin women need her to be a bit more potent.

Even so, this Badger ace was highly reliable and clearly has additional room for growth. She is probably the least concerning piece out of everyone in this lineup. That's not something that all teams can say about their lead scorers.

The secondary scorer of this team is likely going to be Samantha Stieve as long as she returns to this squad like we expect her to. She had a sneaky-strong fall campaign last year and was incredibly consistent across the board. From a value standpoint, Stieve is going to be a major name for the Wisconsin women this fall.

Sure, none of her results blew us away, but placing 15th at the Griak Invitational, 86th at the Nuttycombe Invite, 13th at the BIG 10 XC Championships and 97th at the national meet are all performances that will help Wisconsin avoid having a poor day as a team.

Not only that, but Stieve made promising improvements on the track this past year, posting new personal bests of 9:19 (3k), 16:14 (5k) and 33:15 (10k). Her fitness is clearly the best it's ever been. And although we don't know exactly how that will translate to the grass this fall, the idea that she'll be an improved scorer should be an exciting prospect for the Badgers.

The third scorer is likely going to be Maya Rayle, the transfer from Harvard who holds some excellent value.

A 90th place finish at last year's Cowboy Jamboree doesn't blow you away, but a 105th place finish at Nuttycombe is relatively more impressive. And by placing 6th at the Ivy League XC Championships as well as 11th at the Northeast Regional XC Championships, Rayle feels like the absolutely perfect replacement for Lucinda Crouch.

The former Crimson talent is also had a very nice year of the track, running times of 4:45 (mile), 9:21 (3k) and 16:09 (5k). On paper, her skillset and talent level are almost identical to the ethos of Wisconsin's distance roster.

* * *

Through three runners, we feel pretty good about what we're going to get from Wisconsin. Ruhly, Stieve and Rayle are all very solid and reliable names. They're roughly in the same tier (Ruhly may be a step higher) and showcased valuable consistency in a variety of different meets last fall.

And truthfully, we don't really have any major concerns about how the rest of this top-seven is going to be filled. However, trying to figure out who those women are going to be (and in what order) is the greater challenge.

Victoria Heiligenthal feels like the logical name to bring up at this point in our analysis. She was 97th at the Nuttycombe Invite last fall, offering great scoring value that was on par with expectations.

Unfortunately, Heiligenthal wasn't super consistent last year and the Nuttycombe Invitational was clearly her best effort of the 2022 season. That was a bit surprising given how strong she looked throughout the fall of 2021, placing 61st at Nuttycombe and 83rd at the national meet that year.

At her best, Heiligenthal can put this team closer to our top-15 rather than TSR #20. But a recent lack of consistency and a quieter year on the track makes it challenging to know exactly what she'll offer to the Wisconsin women later this fall.

We then come to Vivian Hacker and Alexa Westley, two women who were backend lineup contributors for the Badgers last fall.

In 2022, Hacker placed 160th at the national meet and 29th at the BIG 10 XC Championships, emerging as a scorer on both occasions. And while her performances weren't going to dramatically alter her's team point total, she was able to limit (most) excessive scoring.

Westley, meanwhile, struggled a bit throughout last fall. She was clearly better during the 2021 cross country season than she was in 2022. At the 2021 NCAA XC Championships, Westley placed 98th overall, but was only 171st on the same stage a year later. That was pretty much the trend for the rest of her races.

If Westley returns to top form, and she could after a great year on the track, then the Badgers could be very dangerous, especially if Heiligenthal is able to do the same thing. In that case, then maybe the Wisconsin women will be able to reach the expectations that we had set for them last year.

It should also be noted that women such as Peyton Sippy, Emma Watcke and Leane Willemse made appearances inside of Wisconsin's top-seven last fall. They'll continue to offer depth throughout 2023.

* * *

There's an argument that the Wisconsin women are ranked too low. They return pretty much everyone from a lineup that finished 19th at the NCAA XC Championships and their only scoring loss has essentially been filled by an equally-as-talented transfer.

Still, this is a team that desperately needs greater firepower. Shea Ruhly is a very underrated distance talent, but she needs more help at the top of this lineup and right now, we don't know who is going to offer that for her.

Both Alexa Westley and Victoria Heiligenthal could be primed for rebound years on the grass. And if that happens, then you're right, this ranking is too low.

But whether the Wisconsin women are ranked at TSR #15 or TSR #25 isn't as important as their proven reliability. Given the depth of this team and their lineup structure, we struggle to see how this group has a truly poor race in 2023.

And truthfully, we can't say that about a lot of teams ranked ahead of the Badgers this fall.