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TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #20 NC State Wolfpack
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 14, 2023
- 8 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
When people think of NC State and cross country, they likely imagine the Wolfpack's women's team -- and understandably so. After all, it's the women's side of this program that has evolved into a nearly-unstoppable long distance dynasty.
But the NC State men deserve plenty of recognition as well. While they may lack the same juggernaut stars and overwhelming firepower, it's their depth, seasonal consistency and underrated development that has allowed them to remain nationally competitive.
That last part shouldn't be changing in 2023.
While NC State will be challenged by two crucial departures, it's the top-half of their projected lineup and veteran experience that should carry them to yet another successful fall campaign.
* * *
We'll be honest, the first major meet of NC State's 2022 cross country season, the Joe Piane XC Invitational, was not great...at all.
The team's low-stick star, Ian Shanklin, was great as expected with a 7th place finish. He was also supported by Brett Gardner who posted a very strong 21st place finish of his own. Through two scorers, things were going fairly well for the NC State men.
But then David Vorbach settled for 43rd place while Daniel McGoey (57th) and Jake Toomey (90th) closed out the scoring. And in case it wasn't clear, the gaps in the latter-half of the Wolfpack's scoring group were far too large for this team to overcome. In the end, NC State had to settle for an underwhelming 9th place team finish, just one point behind Michigan.
There was, however, good news.
Neither Hannes Burger nor Robinson Snider toed the line for the NC State men that day. And if just one of them did race, and therefore cut down the gap from their fifth runner, then the Wolfpack men would have been far better than 9th place. In fact, they would have finished closer to 5th place.
And luckily, that theory seemed to hold plenty of validity. That's because at the Nuttycombe Invitational, the NC State men produced one of the more pleasantly surprising results of the entire meet.
Despite a minor "off" day by Shanklin, this entire team rallied incredibly well. Brett Gardner snagged a 48th place finish while teammate Ian Harrison was close behind in 53rd place. Meanwhile, Robinson Snider placed 72nd, Shanklin settled for 79th and Daniel McGoey closed out the scoring in 119th place.
Greater low-stick scoring potency would have been nice for NC State to have. But considering that Shanklin wasn't even at his best, that was a fantastic team effort. Harrison was far better than expected and Snider's inclusion in their lineup made all of the difference.
And a result, the NC State men earned a fantastic 10th place finish.
Unfortunately, the Wolfpack men would lose a little bit of their spark at the ACC XC Championships. In a deep field of top teams, the Raleigh-based men faltered to 5th place overall.
Shanklin (6th) continued to be great, Snider (14th) provided underappreciated value and Hannes Burger (18th) made his first scoring contribution of the season. However, with Ian Harrison (31st) and Brett Garner (49th) both struggling, there just wasn't enough backend support to leverage the top-20 finishes of the three veterans at the top of NC State's lineup.
This was clearly a good team, but they didn't seem to have much room for error.
After advancing out of the Southeast Regional XC Championships, the Wolfpack men would close out their season at the national meet. And it was there where NC State replicated their magic from the Nuttycombe Invitational.
Shanklin (38th) would barely snag an All-American honor while Gardner (64th) would deliver a result which epitomized his role as a secondary scorer. However, for as good as those two men were, it was Burger (76th) and Harrison (80th) who truly brought outstanding scoring value to this team on the national stage.
And with Robinson Snider (112th) closing out the team's top-five, the Wolfpack men were able to earn an 11th place team finish. It was a result that largely went underappreciated in the midst of the NC State women winning yet another national team title.
* * *
Last year's NC State team, when they all ran well, was excellent. They had a strong low-stick, a very solid secondary scorer (most times), some of the better middle lineup contributors in the NCAA and someone to close out the team's top-five fairly quickly.
And when you put all of that together, the Wolfpack men were on the fringes of being a top-10 team, nationally.
But in 2023, this team is going to have a few key differences when compared to last year's squad. In the grand scheme of things, this lineup won't look dramatically different, but the men who are leaving the roster are going to be significant losses which will be challenging to rebound from.
Not having a low-stick star in Ian Shanklin for later this fall is brutal. If you take him out of last year's results, then the Wolfpack men finish 11th at Joe Piane, 19th at Nuttycombe, 6th at the ACC XC Championships and 18th at the national meet.
And when you look at those hypothetical results, you can see why a TSR #20 ranking feels more on par for this team in 2023. Not only that, but not having Robinson Snider this fall leaves NC State without a key scorer. He was sometimes their second-best scorer depending on the meet.
It should also be noted that backend contributor, David Vorbach, is also out of eligibility.
So sure, the Wolfpack men may not be losing a ton of names, but based on this team's lineup structure last fall, those departures could end up being massive hits.
Luckily, there are plenty of returners and reinforcements on the way.
* * *
Having both Brett Gardner and Ian Harrison return to this team in 2023 is huge. Those two men weren't necessarily low-sticks last fall and you could maybe argue that they weren't even lead scorers, either. However, it's clear that this duo can absolutely evolve into those kinds of talents over the next few months.
Placing 21st at Joe Piane, 48th at Nuttycombe and 64th at the national meet (Gardner) pairs nicely with someone who finished 53rd at Nuttycombe and 80th at the NCAA XC Championships (Harrison).
However, it's the track performances that we saw from these two men this past winter and spring that have us plenty excited about their potential.
On the oval, Gardner ran times of 3:58 (mile), 13:48 (5k) and 8:37 (steeple) while Harrison ran times of 4:01 (mile), 7:53 (3k) and 13:35 (5k). Harrison also ran 7:55 for 3000 meters on a flat-track which converted to a 7:49 mark.
Together, these two men could form one of the more potent 1-2 punches in ACC this fall. Admittedly, they both struggled a bit at their conference meet last year, but generally speaking, the natural growth of both Gardner and Harrison should be able to make up for some (although maybe not all) of Shanklin's lost scoring.
However, the name who will likely end up stabilizing this lineup is Hannes Burger, a long-time veteran who is one of the more experienced long distance talents in the entire ACC. He didn't truly begin his fall campaign until the postseason last fall, but finishing 18th at the ACC XC Championships and 76th at the NCAA XC Championships gives this team a very reliable third scoring option.
Burger has always been one of the more consistent distance talents on NC State's roster. He placed 86th at the 2021 NCAA Winter XC Championships and has a numerous marks on the track (13:51 for 5000 meters and 8:51 in the steeplechase) which equate to those kinds of finishes.
If this German native wasn't returning in 2023, then we're not entirely sure if NC State would crack the top-25 portion of our rankings -- he's sincerely that important to this group.
We're massive fans of the scoring options that NC State has through three runners. Gardner and Harrison could evolve into true low-sticks while Burger offers legitimate ongoing scoring stability. Yes, we still need to see Gardner and Harrison take that next step, but they clearly have the potential to do so.
However, it's the rest of this lineup that had us turning to each other and asking, "So...who comes after these three men?"
* * *
We'll admit, the options for the rest of NC State's top-seven this fall feel a bit limited. Luckily, Coach Rollie Geiger was able to land a solid graduate transfer in Toby Gualter from Eastern Michigan.
For what he needs to be, Gualter is a great fit for this team. He's not necessarily a star, but for someone who is trying to fill the fourth scoring spot in this lineup, the former Eagle couldn't have joined this team at a better time.
In our eyes, finishes of 13th at the Louisville XC Classic, 5th at the Penn State National Open and 2nd MAC XC Championships roughly equate to a runner who is similar to Robinson Snider. It may not be a perfect match, and Gualter may not even be as good, but the value or purpose that they serve within NC State's lineup are largely identical.
Even so, the NC State men have to be thrilled. With their newest transfer, they can continue to find success and maybe even build to a point slightly above from where this ranking suggests.
Of course, it takes five men to fill out a cross country lineup...and we're not sure who that final name is going to be for the Wolfpack in 2023.
Daniel McGoey was better than some people may have realized after placing 57th at Joe Piane and 115th at Nuttycombe. However, he didn't race for the rest of the postseason and completed only four (fairly unexciting) races on the track this past spring.
Jake Toomey could make improvements after gaining valuable experience last year, but a 90th place finish at Nuttycombe was arguably his best result on the grass in 2022.
Travis Koekemoer transferred over from Campbell last year and has run 8:50 in the steeplechase. However, his cross country season was relatively unexciting. How good can he be this fall after taking a year to adjust to Raleigh?
Also, be sure to keep an eye out for JJ Malach, Kevin Antczak and Joseph Jaster (via Case Western) as well as incoming freshmen Marco Evans, Elliott McArthur and Krister Sjoblad.
* * *
Through four runners, this team looks awesome.
We are super high on both Gardner and Harrison, we feel at ease knowing that Burger is going to be this team's third scorer and Gualter makes this group good enough to the point where NC State's fifth man shouldn't devastate them
But with the depth on this year's team feeling far more limited, and no true star standing out on their roster, it's hard to rank the Wolfpack men much higher than this. From a points perspective, the math doesn't (currently) give them an argument to be too much higher.
However, just because the math doesn't suggest that now doesn't mean that this team can't reach our top-15 by October or November. If Harrison and Gardner evolve into top-50 talents, nationally, and/or someone steps up as a fifth scorer, then the Wolfpack men could be just as good as they were last fall.
Of course, until we see that, we thought that placing them at TSR #20 seemed fair...for now.
