PREDICTIONS & PREVIEWS: 2023 ACC XC Championships

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Oct 26, 2023
11 min read

Ah, yes.

The Atlantic Coastal Conference.

It's a conference that I am admittedly partial to given that my alma mater resides in Blacksburg, Virginia. Even so, the ACC has evolved into what may be the deepest and all-around best distance running conference, specifically for cross country, in the NCAA.

The fall of 2023 will be the final cross country season before the usually-mighty Stanford men and women (as well as California and Southern Methodist) join the conference. If certain teams are looking for program-best finishes, then Friday may be their best chance for a while given how formidable the Cardinal have been on the grass.

Of course, beyond what will happen in 2024, the Kolas and national qualifying scenarios could be majorly impacted by these two ACC races.

KEY NOTE: This preview was written prior to the release of individual athlete entries for each ACC team. It is possible that certain names mentioned in this preview are not racing.

Click here to see women's predictions

Click here to see men's predictions

Women's Analysis

The NC State women are clearly the best team in this field. Despite a runner-up finish to Northern Arizona at the Nuttycombe Invitational, this group should leave Tallahassee with gold come Friday.

While the Wolfpack may be expected to secure yet another ACC title tomorrow, they still have a handful of things that we would like them to show us before we dive deeper into the postseason.

After taking a stunning loss to Parker Valby at the Nuttycombe Invitational, Friday's race will be a good "get right" opportunity for Katelyn Tuohy. There are plenty of top-tier distance talents in this field, including a handful from her own team, but Tuohy should still have no issues navigating this race. A comfortable/dominant win would be a nice way to "reset" before she reaches the regional and national stages.

Amaris Tyynismaa, however, is probably the biggest name who we need to watch. The former Alabama ace entered this season as a top-10 name in our preseason rankings, but has since been absent from racing as she recovers from a summer-time injury. With no entries out at the time of publication, it is unclear if she will be racing tomorrow.

If Tyynisma is at/near top form this postseason (and assuming she races), then that should be a monumental development for a team that is trying to counter the combined depth and firepower of Northern Arizona.

And even if she's not firing on all cylinders this Friday (but still posts a respectable result), then that's fine, too! After all, this is someone who has almost always peaked for the postseason, specifically on the grass.

Tomorrow will also be another opportunity to collect data on true freshman Leah Stephens who can seemingly do no wrong this fall. A 4th place finish at the Joe Piane Invitational as well as a 14th place finish at Nuttycombe suggests that she could be a top-five finisher on this Florida State-hosted course come Friday.

We know what we're getting out of Kelsey Chmiel, but what kind of improvements could we see from redshirt freshman Grace Hartman? And has veteran ace Sam Bush made any progress in rebounding from two tough outings so far this fall?

We then come to Notre Dame, a team that has been good this fall, but has yet to showcase their full talent and potential. They were viewed as fringe podium contenders coming into this season, but have slowly begun to drift away from that status -- but they could change that tomorrow.

Olivia Markezich is great and we can't say enough good things about her. However, it's rising distance ace and fellow low-stick Siona Chisholm who could be due for a rebound effort. She was great at Joe Piane (5th), but struggled a bit at Nuttycombe (85th).

Regardless, the Fighting Irish junior is certainly capable of more and the 2022 ACC XC Championships was seemingly where she had her first big breakout race. That should spell only good things for her come Friday.

Last fall, Notre Dame gave NC State a bit of a scare at the ACC XC Championships, falling just four points of a significant upset (assuming they would have won the tie-breaker). And while we don't expect the team scores to be quite that close this time around, there is still potential for the Irish to be better than what they have shown us so far this fall.

On Friday, a lot of Notre Dame's ceiling will be determined by how well women like Andrea Markezich and Ericka VanderLende perform. If those two women showcase their full potential, and fellow teammates Grace Schager and Erin Strzelecki continue to produce great results, then the South Bend-based women should at least be somewhat competitive with the ladies from Raleigh.

Behind those two squads, it's probably safe to assume that the Virginia women are the third-best team in this field. They aren't quite the podium threats that NC State and Notre Dame seemingly are, but they are certainly a tier above the other programs in this race.

Margot Appleton has been great this season and there's not much to say about her. As long as she snags a finish within the top-seven, she'll have done her job.

However, it will be interesting to see how Jenny Schilling, a former UVA club runner, handles her first championship meet. She has evolved into a shockingly-great middle-lineup contributor who would be a lead scorer for a handful of other teams. Having her run well will be integral to the Cavaliers' success on Friday.

Luckily, the other key scorer for Virginia this season, Anna Workman, has looked really solid in both of her efforts in 2023. Finishing 19th at the Virginia Invitational and 11th at Pre-Nationals likely makes her one of the 75-best cross country runners in the NCAA this year (and maybe someone who has an argument for a top-50 spot.

And yet, despite all of that, there are still some key questions remaining when it comes to the latter-half of this lineup. Sophie Atkinson and Caroline Timm have been serviceable backend scorers for the Cavaliers, but we still haven't seen prized recruit Tatum David, veteran Esther Seeland or key scorer Camryn Menninger race this fall.

If two or three of those women toe the line tomorrow, then Virginia's potential to take down a team like Notre Dame jumps quite a bit. Of course, we don't know if those ladies will toe the line until the entries come out (and as of 1:12pm EST, they have not).

And then we come to North Carolina...oh man, what a team.

To be blunt, it's been a tough season for the Tar Heels. A team that likely had podium expectations has fallen quite a bit. Fatima Alanis and Eva Klingbeil have been fairly solid, but everyone else has not looked super sharp.

UNC didn't have their best outing at the Virginia Invitational, but given the absence of Brynn Brown and Sasha Neglia, it was hard to fault the Chapel Hill-based women. But when Brown was absent once more from the Nuttycombe Invitational and North Carolina faded yet again, it was hard to remain optimistic.

All of that being said, I can't get off of the North Carolina bandwagon, at least not yet.

Even without Brynn Brown, this team is way too talented to be an afterthought in this field. They have numerous upper-tier scoring options and there are a handful of women who just haven't had their best races yet, specifically Kelsey Harrington.

Don't sleep on the Tar Heels, I still believe in them...I think.

As for Syracuse, they've been very solid this year. Sure, they haven't blown us away, but after losing a handful of key names from their 2022 group, it's been cool to see how Coach Raynee Revard has reloaded this lineup.

For the most part, the Orange don't have a lot of lineup gaps, something that was evident at the Virginia Invitational. Their backend scorers also kept things relatively in check at the Nuttycombe Invitational.

Top low-stick Savannah Roark hasn't been her usual All-American self this fall, but she has still been plenty valuable as a lead scorer. If she returns to top form on Friday, then Syracuse could themselves favored for 4th place as long as the rest of the lineup keeps their time spread fairly tight.

Duke, Florida State and Wake Forest are other teams to watch, specifically the former.

The Blue Devils have looked pretty strong this year, offering some respectable support behind Amina Maatoug at the second and third scoring positions. However, in a top-heavy field like this, they may need a bit more firepower to stand out and snag 5th place.

Individually, this will be the Katelyn Tuohy show (shocker). Kelsey Chmiel will likely earn runner-up honors. After that, things feel a bit less certain.

You could argue that Olivia Markezich is favored for 3rd place (and she probably is), but other names like Alyson Churchill (Florida State), Margot Appleton (Virginia), Amina Maatoug (Duke) and maybe even Leah Stephens (NC State) may play spoiler if things break their way.

Amaris Tyynismaa could also be a factor in the individual race if she does run. Of course, with no recent data to analyze, it's hard to know what to expect from NC State's newest transfer weapon if she does toe the line.

Women's Predictions

Teams

NC State Wolfpack
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Virginia Cavaliers
North Carolina Tar Heels
Syracuse Orange

Individuals

Katelyn Tuohy (NC State)
Kelsey Chmiel (NC State)
Olivia Markezich (Notre Dame)
Margot Appleton (Virginia)
Alyson Churchill (Florida State)
Amina Maatoug (Duke)
Leah Stephens (NC State)
Amaris Tyynismaa (NC State)
Siona Chisholm (Notre Dame)
Gladys Chepngetich (Clemson)

Men's Analysis

The Syracuse men come into this race as the favorites -- and rightfully so.

What this group has done throughout the 2023 cross country season has been outstanding. Both Paul O'Donnell and Perry Mackinnon (a recent graduate transfer from Cornell) are translating their fitness from the track to the grass beautifully.

Not only that, but the supporting cast of Sam Lawler, Alex Comerford and Matthew Scrape have all been better than we expected, specifically the former name.

Sam Lawler's 34th place finish at Nuttycombe a few weeks ago was huge. His rise as a possible third low-stick could, a) counter some of the firepower that North Carolina has on Friday, and b) make up for his brother, Nathan Lawler, clearly not being at 100% this fall.

And if we go one step further, it also feels like Assaf Harari is due for a great race soon.

Between firepower, viable backend scorers and depth, there is no team in this field that has proven to be more complete than the Orange. You could argue that's Notre Dame's best lineup, on paper, is just as complete, but we haven't totally seen that from them yet.

In my eyes, the only team that can realistically take down Syracuse is North Carolina.

The Tar Heels have been outstanding through three runners so far this fall thanks to the services of Parker Wolfe, Alex Phillip and Ethan Strand. In fact, they may be one of the five-best scoring trios in the nation this year.

However, depth after that trio is where things have been a little shaky. Indiana graduate transfer Jake Gebhardt was plenty solid at the Virginia Invitational earlier this season, placing 37th overall, but he later struggled at Nuttycombe and faded to 160th.

With North Carolina's fifth man falling way back in their last two races, this Chapel Hill-based program can not afford to have any of their other scorers having an "off" day. If that happens, then things could get ugly.

But the ACC XC Championships are a smaller and less competitive field compared to the Virginia Invitational and the Nuttycombe Invitational. The scoring potency of Wolfe, Phillip and Strand will be incredibly valuable and the gap to their final scorer may not feel as egregious as it has in prior races.

It would take some favorable math and a few small things breaking their way, but there is a very realistic scenario where this group upsets Syracuse for the ACC title.

The battle for 3rd place, however, feels a bit more up-in-the-air. You could probably argue that the Notre Dame men are favored for bronze, but I still have a lot of questions about this team despite seeing them in two major races so far this fall.

Can Carter Solomon inch back to his low-stick form from 2022? Can redshirt freshmen Ethan Coleman and CJ Singleton crack the top-20 and stabilize this lineup behind whoever their low-sticks are (likely Josh Methner)? Can Vinny Mauri rebound after a tough outing at the Nuttycombe Invitational? Will Tyler Berg replicate his strong 2022 postseason efforts that we saw from him last year when he was with Columbia?

There are so many ways that this team can be better than what they've shown us so far this season. And to be clear, they haven't been running poorly. However, Friday's race will be a better gauge of whether or not our generous postseason assessment of them held any merit.

We then come to a Virginia, a team that has been good, but not top-10 good like we thought they would be at the beginning of the season.

The duo of Gary Martin and Will Anthony have been really promising lead scorers for this group and I don't see why that would change at the ACC XC Championships. Nathan Mountain hasn't been quite as potent of a scorer as we thought he'd be this fall, but he has still offered great lineup stability at the third spot of this lineup.

The Cavaliers have been decent behind Mountain -- Jacob Hunter, in particular, has been having a nice season and Jack Eliason was respectable at Pre-Nationals -- but a handful of other men haven't offered the scoring value that we've been hoping to see.

On paper, Virginia doesn't have firepower that stands out like a handful of other teams and their depth hasn't been dramatically better than many of the top contenders. And yet, at the same time, the Cavs don't seem to have a glaring, red-alert flaw. Their scoring group through five runners is just flat-out solid and there is still some room for improvement.

I have no idea how to gauge this team in a field like this, but I'll be fascinated to see how they approach this race compared to their aggressive front-running tactics from last fall.

Moving further down the list of contenders, I really like Florida State and Wake Forest in this race, but for different reasons.

The Seminoles showed us at the Joe Piane Invitational that when their entire top-five runs well on the same day, they are a very challenging team to take down. But at Nuttycombe, the Florida State men weren't nearly as strong and a handful of men just had classic "off" days.

In my eyes, the ACC XC Championships holds a field that is somewhat similar to the Joe Piane Invitational. If they can get all five of their scorers firing on all cylinders, then I think they can surprise some people despite what happened at Nuttycombe two weeks ago. Their firepower is arguably just as good as Notre Dame, Virginia and maybe on a perfect day, Syracuse.

As for Wake Forest, we all know how great Rocky Hansen has been, but the rest of this team has clearly not had their best races yet. All-American ace Luke Tewalt has had a slow start to his 2023 fall campaign, but he is due for a better finish.

Redshirt rookie Joseph O'Brien has been quietly excellent as a middle-lineup contributor through two major races and teammate Charlie Sprott showed us that he can race with O'Brien at the Virginia Invitational (despite having an "off" day at Nuttycombe).

With depth that is more than passable, the Demon Deacons' ceiling on Friday could be as high as 3rd place. However, a result like that would require everyone who I just mentioned running to their full potential. That's a fairly big ask for a very young team on a high-stakes championship stage.

Individually, the battle for the ACC title will likely come down to Parker Wolfe and Rocky Hansen. Wolfe got the better of Hansen by seven-ish second at the Virginia Invite while Hansen pulled ahead of Wolfe by two seconds at Nuttycombe.

In a more "mono-e-mono" matchup where the top of the field will be far less crowded with elite stars, I think I still like Wolfe. He is probably hungry to avenge his narrow loss from this meet last year and frankly, I just trust his experience more than Hansen's.

But could the Wake Forest rookie win this whole thing?

Yes, he 100% absolutely could.

I would also throw Florida State's David Mullarkey in there. He's been great through two races and could pull off an upset for silver on a perfect day.