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PREDICTIONS & PREVIEWS: 2023 BIG 10 XC Championships
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Oct 25, 2023
- 7 min read
Well friends, conference championship weekend is fast approaching. And if you've been a reader of The Stride Report for long enough, then you know that we're going to try and get out as many quality meet previews as possible.
If we didn't get to your conference, then that's likely because we didn't get the entries (for individuals) in time and/or other conferences simply held stronger competition.
Today, I'll simply be riffing, highlighting a few teams and individuals who I find interesting. And as always, be sure to check out our predictions below. Alright, let's take a look at a BIG 10 conference meet that is about to look MUCH stronger this time next year.
Women's Analysis
When it comes to the women's race at the BIG 10 XC Championships this Friday, it seems fair to say that the Michigan State women are the clear favorites. Behind them, the Wisconsin women seem to be the fairly comfortable picks to earn silver.
The ladies in green and white have looked excellent this year, sporting incredible depth at the Virginia Invitational (where they finished 7th), but then showcasing a more top-heavy scoring group at the Nuttycombe Invitational (where they finished 9th).
Most of you who read The Stride Report know that the Spartan's top low-stick, Katie Osika, is the focal point of their team and that she's been a reliable ace (yet again) in 2023. It's also been great to see secondary scorer Makenna Veen take subtle, but noticeable, steps up in her fitness this fall.
However, one of the more interesting developments was seeing typical third scorer, Kaitlyn Hynes, absent from Michigan State's lineup at the Nuttycombe Invitational. And according to the entries, she isn't expected to race on Friday, either.
Luckily, Lauren Freeland stepped up in a major way a couple of weeks ago to fill Hines' usual scoring role. That was a massive development for a squad that had a surprisingly large gap between their top-three and latter-two scorers at Nuttycombe.
Of course, let's not forget that Michigan State put 11 (!) women inside the top-100 at the Virginia Invitational. In other words, this team can beat you in a handful of different ways.
If the Wisconsin women are going to have any chance at pulling off an upset, then a few things likely need to go their way.
The most likely scenario would be that the Spartans replicate their lineup structure from the Nuttycombe Invitational and the Badgers pack most of their scorers into that gap that we mentioned earlier. And if Lauren Freeland is unable to replicate her strong performance from two weeks ago, then the chances of an upset go up even higher.
However, it would still take a significant day from all five of Wisconsin's scorers for any of that to matter. Leane Willemse has been a very pleasant surprise as the leading lady for the Badgers this fall and Alexa Westley has been promising as well. Danielle Orie has also shown scattered moments of promise throughout her career. Maya Rayle, the transfer from Harvard, will be in this lineup and I think that she can be an impact name.
Even so, with top scorer Shea Ruhly remaining absent from the entries, it's hard to see how the Wisconsin women will be able to capitalize on the very few weak points of Michigan State's lineup.
But what about the rest of this field?
Truthfully, the Ohio State women have been having a tough 2023 fall campaign compared to expectations, although you could argue that they'll be favored for 3rd place on Friday. In fact, there's a scenario where they finish runner-up on an absolutely perfect day.
From a scoring structure standpoint, Addie Engel and Daniella Santos have been excellent this fall. That, of course, is not surprising. However, the ongoing absence of Andrea Kuhn has been brutal for a team that had zero margin for error going into this fall.
The good news is that Kuhn is set to return based on the entries. And if she's able to replicate her low-stick form (which is not necessarily a guarantee), then the Buckeyes will be far more dangerous than people may expect going into Friday's race.
But if you've done the math on Ohio State's races this season, and hypothetically add Kuhn into the results, then the Buckeyes look good, but they still aren't as potent as they were last year (although they do theoretically win the Arturo Barrios Invitational).
That is likely because they have also been without Morgan Schmitt this fall, a key backend scorer who hasn't raced since the 2022 BIG 10 XC Championships. Akemi Von Scherr has been a quietly great support piece for this team, but depth has certainly been a point of emphasis for this squad over the last two-ish months.
Regardless, I still think Ohio State will be favored for 3rd place in this field as long as Kuhn can return to this squad as a serviceable third scorer. Plus, Akemi Von Scherr offers some level of stability even if a chasm of a gap opens up behind her.
Alright...now for everyone else.
If Michigan State, Wisconsin and Ohio State run like we expect them to, then it's going to be incredibly challenging for any other squad to upend those teams.
Michigan is seemingly in a rebuilding phase, Northwestern needs way more firepower, Nebraska is a bit underrated in my opinion and Penn State has a few decent names who could make things interesting.
Before we move to the men, I wanted to briefly chat about the individual title race which, in my eyes, is likely going to come down to Addie Engel (Ohio State) and Katie Osika (Michigan State). You could maybe throw Kayla Windemuller (Michigan) into that mix, but I'm not sure I have seen enough from her to say that she's on the same tier as those first two women.
Engel hasn't looked quite as sharp as she did last year, but it's important not to confuse "less sharp" with "poor." The Ohio State ace has still been plenty strong this fall and if we theoretically had a sportsbook, then I imagine that we would list Engel as the favorite.
Osika, however, has looked as good as expected. Placing 12th at the Virginia Invitational and 27th at Nuttycombe are two really good results. In fact, at the Virginia Invitational earlier this season, the Michigan State veteran was just one spot and three seconds behind Engel.
Long story, short: Engel is (probably) the favorite, but not by much.
Women's Predictions
Teams
Michigan State Spartans
Wisconsin Badgers
Ohio State Buckeyes
Michigan Wolverines
Penn State Nittany Lions
Individuals
Addie Engel (Ohio State)
Katie Osika (Michigan State)
Daniella Santos (Ohio State)
Kayle Windemuller (Michigan)
Leane Willemse (Wisconsin)
Makenna Veen (Michigan State)
Lauren Freeland (Michigan State)
Andrea Kuhn (Ohio State)
Berlyn Schutz (Nebraska)
Alexandra Carlson (Rutgers)
Men's Analysis
At the Nuttycombe Invitational, the Wisconsin men shockingly dropped to 22nd place overall on their home course. Not only that, but their arch rival, Michigan, ended up defeating the Badgers with a 15th place finish of their own.
And yet, none of us at The Stride Report were panicking for the Badgers.
That day, Wisconsin didn't field Bob Liking or Micah Wilson, two highly important top-five scorers for the men from Madison. If those two had joined the lineup and finished where they were expected to, then the Badgers would have finished around 3rd place overall and no one would be worried about them.
That's why I feel like Wisconsin, a program that is fielding their full lineup per the entries, is the very obvious and clear favorite to win the BIG 10 team title on Friday despite what happened two weeks ago.
And truthfully, the battle for 2nd place feels pretty clear-cut as well.
The Michigan men have a solid lineup -- it may actually be a bit underrated in our top-25 list -- but their lead scorers (Tom Brady and Nick Foster) aren't nearly as potent as the low-sticks that Wisconsin has (Jackson Sharp and Bob Liking).
Even so, the Wolverines do have a fairly respectable backend group in Luke Venhuizen, Owen MacKenzie, Caleb Jerma and (potentially) Zach Stewart. Those first three men offered fairly strong stability for the men of Big Blue two weeks ago on this very course.
However, as long as Rowan Ellenberg, Evan Bishop and Micah Wilson execute their race plan how they should for Wisconsin, then I don't see a scenario where the Badgers are upset by any team in this field. Truthfully, I think this is going to be a fairly dominant effort in the same way that it was in 2022.
But again, all of that hinges on Wisconsin running their top lineup, something that they didn't do at the Nuttycombe Invitational.
As we move further down in our projections, we come to the battle for 3rd place, a spot that Michigan State should be favored for...we think.
The Spartans have not been on the same tier as Michigan or Wisconsin this fall, but they have had a few encouraging moments. At the Joe Piane Invitational, the men from East Lansing posted a very respectable 5th place finish, just three points out from NC State. There, they put five men between 26th and 46th place.
But at the Nuttycombe Invitational, things were different.
Andrew Nolan (32nd) produced an excellent low-stick result, but the rest of his Spartan teammates were much further back. No one else cracked the top-120 overall spots in that race, although all five of Michigan State's scorers stayed within the top-150.
That, however, only yielded a 25th place team finish.
In a smaller, top-heavy field like the BIG 10 XC Championships, how effective could those scoring structures be? In the first scenario, a team with greater firepower could create some challenges. In the latter scenario, a team that can run as a pack could potentially take advantage of the gap between Nolan and everyone else.
That being said, the only team (not named Wisconsin or Michigan) that could potentially give the Spartans a realistic challenge is Purdue.
The Boilermakers have a sneaky-good top-two in Douglas Buckeridge and Nathan Walker as well as a respectable third scorer in Caleb Williams. The backend of this lineup would need to have a really big day in order to upset Michigan State, but after placing 4th at the Louisville XC Classic and 5th at Pre-Nationals, I don't think that's totally out of the realm of possibility.
Regardless, if I was a betting man, Michigan State would be the safer pick for bronze. They're simply more proven this season and the Spartans' backend is probably still better than the Boilermakers' latter-half scorers.
But will the race for 3rd be tighter than people expect? Yes, I think so.
Individually, this race is going to be won by either Jackson Sharp or Bob Liking, both of Wisconsin. They're just flat-out better than everyone else in this field. Other than the Badgers, be sure to look out for Tom Brady (Michigan), Nick Foster (Michigan), Andrew Nolan (Michigan State), Nathan Walker (Purdue), Evan Dorenkamp (Penn State) and Max Murphy (Iowa).
None of those men are superstars, but they're really good lead scorers for their respective teams. We should note that Max Murphy placed 20th at the Joe Piane Invitational earlier this year, but that's the only race after September 1st that we've seen from him this fall.
Men's Predictions
Teams
Wisconsin Badgers
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan State Spartans
Purdue Boilermakers
Illinois Fighting Illini'
Individuals
Jackson Sharp (Wisconsin)
Bob Liking (Wisconsin)
Tom Brady (Michigan)
Evan Dorenkamp (Penn State)
Andrew Nolan (Michigan State)
Rowan Ellenberg (Wisconsin)
Evan Bishop (Wisconsin)
Nick Foster (Michigan)
Nathan Walker (Purdue)
Micah Wilson (Wisconsin)
