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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Women): #14 Stanford Cardinal
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 19, 2024
- 9 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
When we first sat down to craft our preseason cross country team rankings, many of us at The Stride Report expected to list the Stanford women within or around the fringes of our top-10 section.
But the deeper we dove into the rankings, the more realized that other teams either made greater adjustments to their lineups or retained more talent than the Cardinal women did.
We'll admit, we're scared to be ranking the Stanford women this far back. The amount of raw talent and proven pedigree in this program is almost overwhelming. Frankly, it wouldn't surprise us if this group was fighting to be a top-six of top-seven squad in the NCAA by the end of the season.
And yet, with so many question marks still surrounding this group, we felt like we seemingly had no choice but to place Stanford at TSR #14.
* * *
The 2023 cross country season got off to a brilliant start, as expected, for the Cardinal women. At the Virginia Invitational, true freshman Amy Bunnage, the superstar youngster from Australia, grabbed a fantastic 6th place finish, proving to the country that she could be a true low-stick.
Behind her were a series of excellent middle-lineup scorers in Lucy Jenks (20th), Riley Stewart (22nd) and Grace Connolly (24th). Those were all excellent results that could be argued as low-stick performances for a handful of other teams.
With freshman Sophia Kennedy closing out the team's scoring in 32nd place, the Cardinal had put together a brilliant runner-up effort behind Northern Arizona.
Momentum was on a high for the Stanford women once they reached the Nuttycombe Invite. There, they would once again deliver on expectations by having Bunnage earn a potent 13th place finish. Meanwhile, Lucy Jenks (43rd) and Riley Stewart (46th) offered tremendous scoring stability and the same could be said for Grace Connolly (55th).
However, instead of Kennedy closing out the team's top-five, it was Zofia Dudek (72nd) who, despite not being in low-stick form, came through with a clutch performance. That gave the Stanford women an outstanding 4th place finish, further solidifying themselves as podium contenders.
But from there, the Cardinal women began to face greater opposition in the postseason. At the PAC-12 XC Championships, Bunnage came through with a massive (but somewhat unsurprising) win while Lucy Jenks (5th) gave this team a lethal 1-2 punch.
That was great scoring potency, but the backend supporting group of Riley Stewart (17th), Grace Connolly (18th) and Zofia Dudek (19th) simply left too much room between them and their leading teammates to avoid an upset. In turn, the Washington women secured a slightly surprising win over the Cardinal by two points.
After cruising through the West regional meet, the Stanford women were ready to redeem themselves on the national stage. Or at least, that's what was supposed to happen.
Amy Bunnage struggled a bit in her NCAA Championship debut, fading to 59th place despite being viewed as a top-20 All-American threat. Behind her was yet another stable middle-lineup group which featured Lucy Jenks (93rd), Sophia Kennedy (95th) and Grace Connolly (98th) while Riley Stewart (128th) closed out the scoring.
While there wasn't a lone result that truly crushed this team's score, it also felt fair to say that each of these women needed to be 25 to 35 spots better if they were going to be a podium squad. Instead, the Cardinal ended their season with a 12th place finish on the national stage.
* * *
As we venture into the fall of 2024, we find the Stanford women set to come back with a decent handful of runners who featured in their top-seven last year. However, two scorers from last year are gone -- and they were pivotal names at multiple points throughout the Cardinal's 2023 fall campaign.
One of those now-departed veterans was Lucy Jenks, a fantastic 5k talent for Stanford who was able to offer fringe low-stick scoring for this group on multiple occasions last fall. Last year, she placed 20th at the Virginia Invitational and 5th at the PAC-12 XC Championships.
However, more importantly, Jenks' often offered a high-floor finish at nearly every national meet she toed the line for.
Not having a potent and experienced scorer like Jenks is going to be a tricky obstacle to navigate around this fall. Part of the reason why Stanford was so good throughout most of last year is because they often had a highly stable group of middle-lineup contributors which almost always featured Jenks.
However, the other scorer who is gone is Grace Connolly, a long-time Stanford veteran who was quietly great last year, providing tremendous scoring reliability. She too was part of the Cardinal's foundational core of three, placing 24th at the Virginia Invitational, 55th at the Nuttycombe Invite and 98th at the NCAA XC Championships.
And to put it simply, both Jenks and Connolly are brutal losses.
But unlike a few other teams, we can actually see a somewhat realistic scenario where the scoring roles of both Jenks and Connolly are adequately filled. Maybe not entirely, but mostly. And thankfully for Stanford, they still retain their star low-stick.
I am, of course, talking about Amy Bunnage.
The Aussie distance star was brilliant last fall, placing 6th at the Virginia Invitational, 13th at the Nuttycombe Invite and winning the PAC-12 title. Yes, we'll admit, she struggled a bit on the national stage. But if a 59th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships is her floor, then Bunnage should at least be able to make up a sizable chunk of scoring at next year's national meet assuming she runs up to her true talent level.
We should note, however, that Bunnage had a large handful of ups and down on the track over the last year. She was outstanding at the tail-end of the indoor track season, running times of 8:51 (3k) and 15:11 (5k), but she didn't race at the national meet. Bunnage then put together a complete outdoor track season where she ran at the national meet, but her 5k efforts were far less exciting than her indoor PR.
Bunnage doesn't need to do anything particularly special in order for Stanford to make a certain jump or enter a certain tier. As long as the Cardinal get the same Amy Bunnage that we saw last fall, then that will suffice.
Not only that, but we are very high on Sophia Kennedy this fall. In fact, we have her listed at TSR #45 in our preseason individual cross country rankings.
The then-freshman was excellent throughout last year despite her inexperience and a few "off" days. Kennedy placed 32nd at the Virginia Invitational and 95th at the NCAA XC Championships before qualifying for the outdoor national meet in the 5k where she ran a 15:33 PR.
Kennedy feels like the perfect replacement for Lucy Jenks, at least for this year. Her growth has seemingly accelerated more than nearly everyone else in her national recruiting class. She's admittedly still young, but that also means (theoretically) that she has tons of upside.
* * *
As we look to figure out who will fill out the rest of this top-seven, we come to Riley Stewart, another highly valuable and underrated middle-lineup contributor. She was great in the regular season last year, producing finishes of 22nd at the Virginia Invitational and 46th place at the Nuttycombe Invite.
And for a small number of teams found at the backend of these rankings, Stewart would be viewed as a lead scorer in those races.
The challenge, however, is that Stewart took a slight step back in the postseason, settling for finishes of 17th, 56th and 128th at her conference, regional and national meet, respectively. Those aren't necessarily bad results, but they also don't match the fantastic performances that she posted in the regular season.
Stewart's latest winter and spring campaigns were admittedly not as strong as what we saw from her the year prior. Even so, the Stanford runner has had from May to October to reach her prior peak fitness. And as long as we get the same version of Stewart that we got last year, then the Cardinal will have three women capable of being lead scoring talents.
After Stewart, things become a bit less clear regarding what the rest of this lineup will look like. Veteran Zofia Dudek is set to return, but she has been the definition of a "wild card" throughout her career.
Remember, Dudek was a legitimate national title contender during the pandemic-altered cross country season in the winter of 2021 before fading at the national meet. She did eventually go on to earn a 20th place All-American finish at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships and run a 15:32 (5k) PR.
However, health and availability have been clear challenges for Dudek. In some seasons, she's a true star-caliber low-stick. In other seasons, she's a decent support scorer who offers respectable depth.
Simply put, we have zero idea what to expect from Dudek. Her latest track season suggests that she'll most likely replicate the performances of her 2023 fall campaign. And while her national meet showing will need to be better than it was last year, her lead-up to that meet still held signs of promise.
Trying to fill the fifth and final scoring spot for the Stanford women this fall is largely why we have this team listed at TSR #14. While the Cardinal could absolutely assemble a passable backend, it would still take a fairly significant jump from one or two women in order to make up for the lost scoring of both Jenks and Connolly.
It also doesn't help that Abi Archer, a key depth piece from last year, is also gone. Ava Parekh looks like a great name to potentially step into this Stanford's scoring group. A 49th place finish at last year's Virginia Invitational shouldn't be brushed aside as insignificant -- that's a great performance that most nationally ranked teams would love to have.
Unfortunately, the rest of Parekh's season wasn't quite as strong and she hasn't raced since the Boston U. Season Opener back in early December. That's not exactly a super encouraging sign going into this fall, but she could be preserving her eligibility for the upcoming year.
Audrey Suarez is a very solid name, especially when it comes to the 5k. She boasts a 16:13 PR and has flashed a few moments of promise on the grass throughout her career. The only issue? She has competed just twice since late April of 2023 -- once in cross country and once on the outdoor oval.
How about Nicola Hogg? She earned a quietly great 7th place finish in the "Open" section at last year's Nuttycombe Invite, finishing near/alongside a few women who went on to be scorers for their team on the national stage.
Admittedly, Hogg's 2023 season ended after a somewhat tough outing at the PAC-12 XC Championships and she hasn't raced since February. Even so, we've at least seen what she's capable of when she's firing on all cylinders.
Julia Flynn is another name to consider given that she's run 9:35 for 3000 meters. But truthfully, she is more of a miler who has yet to toe the line for any collegiate cross country races.
Of course, the biggest and maybe most important member of this entire roster is Irene Riggs, arguably the single-best domestic distance recruit from the Class of 2023.
Riggs was a borderline megastar in high school, thriving on the grass and running jaw-dropping times of 9:50 (two miles) and 16:02 (5k XC). And yet, the elephant in the room is the fact that we haven't seen Riggs race in a Stanford singlet...at all.
If Riggs makes it back to top form going into this fall, then we're looking at someone who could realistically be an All-American. In that scenario, then Stanford is absolutely a top-10 team that may end up being just as good as last year.
But...will we even see her race this fall? I suppose we'll just have to wait and find out.
* * *
On paper, Stanford looks like they could be one of the most volatile teams in the nation this fall. Bunnage feels like a true lock to be a standout low-stick, Kennedy is brimming with untapped upside and we feel plenty confident in what Stewart can offer to her team this fall.
But after that trio, this squad has a ton of different ways where they could either jump into podium contention or struggle to match this preseason ranking.
Dudek could be an All-American or a backend depth piece this fall. Irene Riggs could also be an All-American-caliber runner or not even run this season. Hogg, Suarez and Parekh have had a few moments of promise, but their recent racing history has been highly limited to say the least.
The possible outcomes are seemingly endless for the Stanford women going into this fall. Their history of long distance excellence is extensive and there is enough pedigree on this team to reenter the top-10 portion of our rankings. However, their current roster depth seems thin and a few crucial scorers have major question marks next to their names.
And yet, we can't shake the sense that this team will find a way to make us look incredibly foolish come November.
