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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #15 Oregon Ducks
- Conor Daly
- Aug 18, 2024
- 8 min read
Written by Conor Day, edits & additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
It wasn’t all that long ago that the men of Oregon failed to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
How long ago, you may ask? Well, just last year, actually.
And the wildest part? They weren’t even close.
Yes, that’s right. The Oregon Ducks, arguably America’s premiere track and field program, did not even earn a berth on the line to fight the nation’s top-31 teams in fall of 2023.
Of course, if we thought the same would be true this year, then we wouldn’t have ranked the west coast powerhouse at this spot. There have been numerous exciting developments in Eugene as of late which suggest that this year’s team will be head and shoulders above last year’s group...right?
* * *
Aside from a largely insignificant 6k in early September, the Oregon men opened up their 2023 season at their very own Bill Dellinger Invitational. There, Quincy Norman had a nice 2nd place run and it was similarly encouraging to see middle distance specialist Elliott Cook place 7th.
But outside of that duo, there were no names that particularly stood out as ready to contribute at the level that that Ducks needed. In fact, we’d go as far as to say that their third runner, Abdinasir Hussein, had a poor day relative to expectations.
Of course, when you look a little deeper, a loss to Cal Poly turned out to be of little concern given that many of Oregon’s top runners were racing unattached. If you rescore the meet by counting Oregon’s unattached runners, then they win with a comfortable score 24 points thanks to top-10 runs from unattached athletes such as Simeon Birnbaum, Josh Edwards and Archie Noakes.
Birnbaum, in particular, showed incredible promise by placing 3rd, only seconds out from the win. That was a huge result for someone who was expected to be more of a talent on the track than the grass.
One noticeable aspect of Oregon’s racing schedule last year is that they did not race very often, skipping out on big-time regular season opportunities. The team did not line up again until the PAC-12 XC Championships. And this time around, we saw coach Jerry Schumacher run many of his youngsters that he previously entered unattached such as Josh Edwards, Archie Noakes and Connor Burns.
While the latter two didn’t finish as top-seven names for the Ducks, but it was another story with the former. Josh Edwards earned a fantastic 6th place finish in that race as a part of a very strong trio that led the way for the Ducks. Teammates Elliott Cook (5th) and Quincy Norman (7th) had strong days themselves, joining Edwards in the top-seven.
Unfortunately, the same can’t be said about the rest of the team as the remainder of Oregon’s scorers were in the 20s. That gave the team some stability on the backend, but their pack as a whole needed to place higher in the race for the Ducks to find success.
Ultimately, the Ducks settled for a "just okay" 3rd place finish. It was encouraging to see the front three trio of lead scorers emerge, but there remained questions about what the backend of this lineup would look like.
These questions were exploited during the West Regional XC Championships, a day that most Oregon fans would prefer to forget.
Elliott Cook maintained his strong form with a 10th-place finish, a nice low-stick result which gave him an individual berth to the NCAA XC Championships. But the rest of the team’s scorers just couldn’t keep up.
Josh Edwards, Quincy Norman and Connor Burns went 34-39-45 in the overall results which was significantly further back than the team could afford, especially with Edwards and Norman projected to finish with Cook. Their fifth man, Guiliano Scasso, placed 70th to close out a rough day for the Ducks.
Outside of Cook and Burns, it was a poor team performance. Oregon placed 7th overall in their region, a far cry from qualifying for the national meet. Elliott Cook did qualify for the national meet as an individual where he placed 114th. And while that effort capped a strong season for him, any jubilation was masked by an overall sentiment of disappointment.
* * *
So...how do we justify a ranking this high for a team that was so ordinary last fall?
Well, the thing that’s going to be different this fall is the fact that the Oregon men have landed three key transfers who can almost certainly change the trajectory of this team.
We are, of course, talking about Devin Hart, Evan Bishop and Evan Dorenkamp.
Out of those additions, Hart is the most accomplished of the bunch. His resume is highlighted by an 11th-place run at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships, an incredible result that very few men can boast. Even more so, Hart is a national qualifier on the track and holds a red-hot 28:07 (10k) personal best.
The former-Longhorn also differs from the others in that he has already been at Oregon for a semester. And while we wish we could give you a glamorous report of his spring season, it was definitely underwhelming, to be frank.
Hart was unable to run close to his personal bests and he struggled against PAC-12 and regional competition. That ended his season on a sour note with a pair of tough outings at the West Regional Championships.
We don’t mean to bash Hart nor could we ignore the fact that he is wildly talented. An 11th place finish on the biggest stage in college cross country is a result that should be taken very seriously. While a drop in form this past spring isn’t ideal, it could be the product of moving across the country and be a non-existent problem this fall.
And truthfully, Hart at 80% still gives the Ducks a true low-stick that they were lacking last year (depending on how you interpret Elliott Cook's results). His presence alone will give this team a massive injection of scoring.
We then come to Evan Bishop, a name that has not yet shown the upside of Hart, but is still plenty accomplished in his own right, especially on the grass. The veteran from Wisconsin once placed 83rd at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships.
That’s a no-joke result.
His 2023 cross country season was on track to be even better than his last as his 4th place finish at the BIG Ten XC Championships suggests. But from there on, Bishop was unable to showcase his fitness, not competing at the regional meet and recording a DNF at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships after being seriously ill in his lead up to that race.
While we’ve only seen Bishop in action twice since the fall, he’s a similar name to Hart in that he’s simply too talented to overlook, although his consistency could be better.
About how about Evan Dorenkamp? Unlike the previous two men, he’s known better over the middle distances. But don’t be mistaken: the three-time national meet qualifier (on the track) is competitive on the grass, too.
Dorenkamp’s resume from last fall is highlighted by an underrated win at Lehigh’s Paul Short Run, a 17th place result at the BIG 10 XC Championships and a 16th place finish at the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships.
While those marks don’t scream “elite low-stick”, they’re still sneaky-good marks which make Dorenkamp favored to be a steady and stabilizing scoring contributor for an Oregon program that could use just that.
When it comes to returners, Elliott Cook looks to continue his successes on the grass. He is, after all, coming off of the track season of his life, highlighted by a runner-up finish in the 1500 meters at the outdoor national meet. He also ran 3:33 for 1500 meters at the Olympic Trials, making it to the finals where he placed 8th. And as we mentioned before, he’s a fairly stable name on the grass which is rare to find in middle distance-centric names.
Through four runners, you can begin to see how dangerous of a nucleus the Ducks have. They have four highly experienced veterans, one of which is a low-stick while the three others should provide highly valuable and stable scoring that Oregon simply did not have last fall.
Josh Edwards and Quincy Norman are two more names who will increase the Ducks’ floor this fall. They’re not names who will throw down flashy performances, but they are necessary contributors for Oregon to have a complete lineup.
However, Edwards isn't listed on the Ducks' updated TFRRS roster. And if he's not with the men of Eugene anymore, then that's a tough, although certainly not devastating, departure.
* * *
In addition to the names who we’ve previously mentioned, the Oregon men have many more athletes who hold the potential to be breakthrough names for them, although that’s far from a guarantee.
We are, of course, talking about a pair of rising sophomores and were some of the most prized recruits in their class, Connor Burns and Simeon Birnbaum.
Burns tends to have the build of a true long distance star, recording more impressive marks the further the race. In his prep days, not only was Burns a 3:58 miler, but he was the then-high school national record holder in the 5k with a massive 13:37 performance.
At the collegiate level, his 29th place finish at the PAC-12 XC Championships and 45th place finish at the West Regional XC Championships, while passable, were not necessarily what we thought he was capable of.
Birnbaum, on the other hand, tends to be an athlete who more closely resembles Elliott Cook’s skillsets. He entered college with elite personal bests over 800 meters and 1500 meters of 1:47 and 3:37, respectively. Even so, Birnbaum was the 7th place finisher at NXN, suggesting that he could be a problem for his competitors on the grass as well.
In fact, he delivered a great result in his first-ever 8k at the Bill Dellinger Invitational where he posted a 3rd place finish. Unfortunately, that was the freshman’s final race of the cross country season as Birnbaum sustained an injury shortly after. But it’s this performance that suggests that the youngster has the potential to be as good as any of his returning teammates on the grass.
However, maybe just as importantly, there are a handful of young steeplechasers on this roster who could be contributing members to the Ducks this fall. Giuliano Scasso and Benjamin Balazs placed 24th and 25th at the PAC-12 XC Championships last fall and have since run 8:49 and 8:45 in the steeplechase, respectively.
But just like Josh Edwards, we don't see Giuliano Scasso listed on Oregon's TFRRS roster.
Let’s also not forget about Spain native Sergio Del Barrio who has ran a jaw-dropping mark of 8:39 for the event prior to joining the Ducks. Considering that we have not seen him put on an Oregon singlet yet, his status is a bit more unknown, but we can’t overlook his potential upside, either.
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Amidst all of Oregon’s performances last fall was one factor that we need to address: It was Jerry Schumacher’s first season in charge of the historic program.
We should not fail to forget that he has been incredibly successful leading the Bowerman Track Club to numerous national records and Olympic medals. He is, after all, responsible for guiding Wisconsin to their 2005 national title along with numerous national meet runner-up team finish as well.
Whatever this season comes to be, we’re willing to stand by this arguably optimistic ranking of the Oregon men. Well...for now. Sure, they're highly highly variable, but they also look completely different compared to last year. There is less reliance on younger talents and their are more a few more proven cross country talents who can bring great value to this team despite some of their less-than-ideal departures.
And given the elite history and reputation of this program, we struggle to believe that the Ducks won't be hungry to redeem themselves in 2024.
