TSR's 2024 D3 "Way Too Early" NCAA XC Preview (Men's Teams)

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Jul 11, 2024
9 min read

Updated: Jul 21, 2024

I have become increasingly more fond of the Division Three distance running scene over the years. The talent among the top stars of the division has seemingly jumped tenfold and the team battles, as best evidenced by last year's national meet, have never been closer.

This year in particular feels like it could be a fairly dynamic landscape among the Division Three men's teams. With a large handful of veteran stars departing and a slew of up-and-coming names now having a chance to shine, this may be one of the more fascinating seasons of D3 cross country that we've had on our hands for quite some time.

NOTE: Any analysis offered in this article is not meant to be an indication of where an athlete or team will or will not be ranked in our preseason lists as new information is constantly flowing in. Any eligibility mentioned below is based off of TFRRS and any feedback that coaches have been able to offer us. We also could not get to ALL nationally relevant teams in this article. Just because a team was not mentioned does not necessarily mean that they are less relevant than other teams which were highlighted.

This is usually the part of the article where I talk about the top teams from last year. And generally speaking, one of those top-tier teams from last fall is often primed to emerge as the national title favorite the following year.

But...is that going to be the case this year? Allow me to explain.

The Pomona-Pitzer men, the reigning cross country national champions, took home an upset win at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships. After a less-than-encouraging performance at D3 Pre-Nationals last fall, the idea that the Sagehens would be able to rebound at the national meet was a stretch.

Of course, we all know how that ended.

However, the real challenge for Pomona-Pitzer will begin in 2024. That's because they have lost Lucas Florsheim, Derek Fearon and Colin Kirkpatrick from their national meet lineup. That's three of their four All-Americans. It's unclear if Ian Horsburgh, a top-70 finisher from the 2022 national meet, will return, although we're led to believe that he will not.

Thankfully, Cameron Hatler is set to return as a low-stick-caliber All-American and Jack Stein has shown subtle signs of promise. And while there are a few other developmental names who could help, there are still a ton of major scorings gaps on this team, enough to leave me scratching my head about what this team will do in 2024.

And what about UW-La Crosse? They were only a single point behind Pomona-Pitzer at the national meet. But trying to posit that the Eagles are the national title favorites is a tricky conversation to have. It's doable, but it requires plenty of projection.

Yes, the Wisconsin-based men have a slew of up-and-coming talents, many of whom had breakout years on the track. It also helps that they won't be underclassmen anymore. Even so, losing both Ethan Gregg and Isaac Wegner leaves the UW-La Crosse men without any returning All-Americans. In fact, no one else on that team finished in the top-50 at last year's national meet.

How about North Central? The Cardinals had tons of great low-sticks last year. With some of the best firepower in the nation, surely some of those names will return in 2024 and make them contenders once again...right?

Well, not quite. The North Central men lost a handful of lead scorers from last year's squad. Those departures include Andrew Guimond, Braden Nicholson and Connor Riss. Thankfully, Max Svienty and BJ Sorg are set to return, giving this team a fairly solid core to build around for later this fall.

Things don't get too much better when we introduce the Williams men to the fold. They lose their top low-stick in John Lucey as well as a key support scorer in Nate Lentz. The Ephs will also no longer have a few veterans who contributed to the team's backend depth.

And Wartburg? The 5th place team at last year's national meet? Well, TFRRS says that they return six of their top-seven from last fall. The only catch is that their sole departure is Christopher Collet, the team's lone All-American.

Although, in their defense, Tyler Schermerhorn was not in the Knights' national meet lineup last fall and he turned into one of the biggest breakout distance stars in D3 this past spring. He may not be able to replace all of Collet's scoring, but he may be too far off, either.

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Now, to be clear, none of this is to say that these five teams can't contend for NCAA gold come November. Pomona-Pitzer, UW-La Crosse, North Central, Williams and Wartburg are all traditional powers when it comes to Division Three distance running. From a historical perspective, seeing one of these teams emerge with a national title later this year would hardly be shocking.

And yet, despite everything that I said above, I think I would actually say that UW-La Crosse is this year's national title favorite. Yes, I would choose the team that has no returners who were among the top-50 finishers at last year's NCAA XC Championships.

Will my fellow TSR writers feel the same way when our rankings are crafted next month?

I suppose we'll just have to wait and find out...

What I haven't told you about this team is that although Gregg and Wegner are gone, guys like Joey Sullivan, Grant Matthai, Adam Loenser and Aidan Matthai are all set return. That quartet went 59-63-64-76, respectively, in last year's season finale. Of course, the story of this team goes much deeper than that.

Each of those returning men who I just highlighted all emerged as individual All-Americans on the track earlier this year, either at the indoor national meet or the outdoor national meet. And in an era that has been historically stacked in the distance events, that's an incredible feat, especially for four men who weren't even cross country All-Americans.

But wait, there's more!

Jayden Zywicki and Mason Brown are also coming back. And yes, you guessed it, they were ALSO All-Americans on the track this past winter and/or spring.

The Eagles have a ton of depth that is now plenty experienced on the nation's biggest stages. And while they may not all be stars later this fall, that may not matter. Based on how much scoring other teams have lost, UW-La Crosse may only need four those men to fully translate their track success to the grass.

Of course, the Wartburg men have a similar argument when compared to the Eagles. That's because the top returners for the Knights this fall -- Sam Schmitz, Jacob Green and Jack Kinzer -- went 48-51-61, respectively, at last year's national meet. And if you look at how this collective group fared throughout the season, you'll likely find that Lance Sobaski and Shane Erb were just as good as those three until the national meet where they had "off" days.

And again, Tyler Schermerhorn was not in that lineup! That's a big deal!

Sure, the Knights weren't quite as potent as UW-La Crosse was on the track earlier this year. Even so, this midwest powerhouse has a lot of really strong scorers who seemingly run fairly well next to each other. I don't know if I see any glaring weaknesses at a brief first glance.

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When looking at the next few teams, I can't help but feel pretty good about where the Carnegie Mellon men are at in their roster lifecycle.

Yes, I'll admit, I don't love the fact that they lose a lot of their backend depth. That isn't the most encouraging development for a team that didn't have an All-American last fall and was relying on having a gap-less lineup.

Even so, this program will bring back Colin McLaughlin, Ryan Podnar and Matthew Coyle for the upcoming season. That's a sneaky-good trio who all placed inside the top-60 at the national meet. Their overall fall campaigns in 2023 were also accurate indicators of how they would fare at the national meet (actually, they were slightly better).

With a small handful of sneaky-good recruits as well as an experienced veteran in Aleksei Seletskiy, I'm not terribly concerned about Coach Tim Connelly putting together a nationally competitive group in 2024. However, if they want to compete for the podium, then they'll their aforementioned top-three to become more potent low-stick scorers.

When we come to teams like RPI and MIT, it's admittedly hard to get too excited given how many key losses they have. For RPI, TFRRS is somewhat inaccurate as they will be losing Corey Kennedy (who is headed to Colorado State) as well as Mitchell Dailey and Jason Gibbons.

And the MIT men? Well, they lose their entire top-three...and Henry Hardart (who was way better throughout last fall than what his national meet effort suggests). They have a great recruiting class and a few solid reinforcements, but trying to rebound from so much lost scoring is going to give Coach Riley Macon one of the more interesting roster challenges of his career.

It's hard not to like Lynchburg. They were excellent on the track and return many of their core pieces who helped them place 9th at last year's national meet. The biggest loss, of course, is Frank Csorba, an invaluable member of the Hornets' program who tragically passed away earlier this year. His cross country eligibility was expected to expire after last fall.

Of course, when you look at the other top cross country teams in Division Three, nearly all of them are losing substantial low-stick scoring as well. And with Lynchburg bringing back the trio of Sam Llaneza, Chasen Hunt and Tor Hotung-Davidsen, you can still imagine a scenario where Coach Jake Reed finds enough reinforcements to (potentially) be a top-five team.

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Speaking of low-sticks, let's chat about UW-Whitewater, a team that could absolutely improve upon their 10th place finish from last year's NCAA XC Championships.

Christian Patzka and Gunner Schlender were outstanding for the Warhawks last fall. Those two men made up what was probably the best 1-2 punch in the country last fall and they will almost certainly enter this season with that same status. But for as good as that duo is, the UW-Whitewater men will need to find much greater depth if they want to contend for the podium.

Luckily for them, that's a real possibility.

Dan Anderson, the 78th place finisher at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships, is set to return and the same can be said for Chris Allen, the team's fourth scorer on the national stage. There is also still uncertainty if Craig Hundley will be back this fall. But if he is, then he could end up being a pivotal piece to UWW's puzzle. He was, after all, the 14th place finisher at the always-competitive Augustana Interregional.

With a handful of youngsters showing long-term promise on the track, you can begin to see how this UW-Whitewater squad could give their opponents a few problems this fall.

Also, how about George Fox? This program has slowly been improving over the years and the fall of 2024 could end up being a massive statement season for them.

Despite what TFRRS may say, the Bruins only lose one runner from last year's team. The problem? That runner was Peyton Weiss, their 24th place cross country All-American.

And yet, when you look at who does return and the overall structure of this team, it's hard to say that they are really all that different that Carnegie Mellon. Similar to the Tartans' trio of Colin McLaughlin, Ryan Podnar and Matthew Coyle, the GFU trio of Austin Gappa, Adam Petersen and Alex Mills all cracked the top-75 at last year's national meet.

Now, admittedly, you could make the argument that the George Fox men exceeded expectations at last year's NCAA XC Championships. They were having a solid 2023 fall campaign, but having four men in the top-75 in their season finale was probably not something that they were favored to do.

Even so, with a quietly great recruiting class and Aidan Arthur making strong progress on the track, the George Fox men are seemingly primed to only go upwards in 2024.

Alright, I think my time has come to an end. Like usual, here are a few "quick takes" on a few other squads that caught my attention...

I really like the Johns Hopkins men this year. I think Emmanuel Leblond is fairly underrated in terms of his low-stick scoring impact and Connor Oiler, an 8:59 steeplechaser, got hurt before the NCAA XC Championships last fall. With a few key returners, a solid transfer and a VERY good recruiting class, I would not take the Blue Jays lightly in 2024.

I think the NYU men got overlooked last fall given how strong their women's team was. But this group only loses one runner from last fall and they're no longer propped up by a bunch of inexperienced sophomores. Keep that in mind when they toe the line later this year.

Amherst was a fairly young squad last year. Don't be surprised if they produce one or two breakout individuals this fall.

I don't know how, but despite losing Mason Ratkovich, Andrew Blelloch and Nick Taubenheim, as well as Hayden Beauchemin who is studying abroad this fall, I can't help but think that Coach Marina Muncan will keep this team flirting with the top-10, nationally.

St. Olaf no longer has the services of Will Kelly, their focal low-stick, as well as one or two others. That said, this is a fairly experienced team with solid depth. If they can find another low-stick talent (which is easier said than done), then I wouldn't expect the Oles to look that much more different than they were last year.