TSR's 2024 D2 "Way Too Early" NCAA XC Preview (Men's Teams)

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Jul 8, 2024
8 min read

Updated: Jul 21, 2024

Coffee? Check.

13 different TFRRS tabs open? Check.

An unfathomably long list of emails that I still haven't read? Also check.

It's now Division Two's turn to get a "way too early" preview for the still-distant 2024 cross country season. Feel free to join me as I throw around some thoughts about what we could potential expect in the D2 realm later this fall...

NOTE: Any analysis offered in this article is not meant to be an indication of where an athlete or team will or will not be ranked in our preseason lists as new information is constantly flowing in. Any eligibility mentioned below is based off of TFRRS and any feedback that coaches have been able to offer us. We also could not get to ALL nationally relevant teams in this article. Just because a team was not mentioned does not necessarily mean that they are less relevant than other teams which were highlighted.

Do we potentially have an NCAA title rematch for the ages on our hands?

I say that because both the Wingate men and the Colorado Mines men seemingly return many of their core distance stars from last fall.

In fact, when it comes to the former squad, they return everyone (per TFRRS) from last year's national meet lineup which gave them NCAA gold. And while the Orediggers do lose a pair of backend veterans in John O'Malley and Andrew Kaye, their top-four from the national meet seemingly remain.

Coach Chris Siemers at Colorado Mines has shown time and time again that he can develop some of the best depth in the nation. If there's a team not to worry about this fall when it comes to finding backend lineup replacements, it's Colorado Mines.

And yet, despite having four All-Americans from last fall, three of whom were in the top-16, the overwhelming firepower of Wingate looks like it could be even BETTER than it was last year! That's because the Bulldogs return all five of their All-Americans, two of whom were top-10 national meet finishers. It also feels fair to say that guys like Titouan Le Grix and Ricardo Barbosa have only gotten better since then.

But let's take this another step further: What would happen if Coach Pol Domenech were to continue adding more international distance stars this offseason like he has in past years? Are we now looking at all-time elite Division Two cross country team?

I don't think that's entirely out of play right now.

Speaking of teams returning tons of firepower, the East Central men should continue to be a massive problem for their opponents this fall. Strictly according to TFRRS, the Tigers return their top-six men from the national meet and five of those returners finished in the top-43 of the national meet (four being All-Americans).

The East Central men came out of nowhere last fall as a handful of international names flooded their roster, many of whom came from the JUCO ranks during the prior winter season. Now, with a small army of All-Americans expected to return, what should we expect from Coach Steve Sawyer?

Does he have the room/resources to add another name or two? If so, how impactful could those new names be? And even if East Central doesn't add any new high-impact men, then how much better can we expect their returning scoring core to be in 2024?

* * *

Let's chat about the 4th place team from last year's national meet: West Texas A&M.

The Buffaloes lose one All-American, Louis Moreau, from their 2024 podium squad. And for a team that had a significant gap after their five scorers last fall (beyond just the national meet), having just one gap in their top-five could be pretty challenging to fix.

There is no denying that Enrico Oddone improved on the oval this past year. His projected progression should help West Texas A&M chip away at the lost scoring of Moreau. But if there are no major additions to this team in 2024, then Adrian Legarreta (who placed 114th at last year's national meet) is going to have to be the guy who takes that next step up.

Thankfully for West Texas A&M, that's a realistic possibility. Legarreta did, after all, run 29:43 for 10,000 meters this past spring.

It absolutely blows my mind that we have already discussed four teams and none of them were Adams State, Grand Valley State or Western Colorado. If you had told me that five years ago -- heck, maybe even three years ago -- that none of those three teams would be on the podium at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships, I would have shamelessly laughed at you.

And now, not only did those teams not make the podium last fall, but two of them lose at least one major low-stick ace from last year!

Long-time powerhouse Adams State loses their top-three men from last year's national meet (which featured two All-Americans) as well as James Dunne, the 12th place finisher at the RMAC XC Championships. Western Colorado, meanwhile, loses their superstar distance talent, Simon Kelati, to a graduate transfer situation.

Now, in fairness to both of those teams, there are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic about upcoming fall campaigns of these two RMAC stalwarts.

Adams State still has a true superstar in Romain Legendre and Kidus Begashaw had some underrated performances over the last year. And while we don't know the exact details of their recruiting class (yet), we do know that it's supposed to be one of the Grizzlies' better incoming groups of the last few years.

As for Western Colorado, they still return most of their core from last year. That includes two All-Americans and three men who finished in the top-75 at the NCAA XC Championships. And given Coach Jen Michel's history of development, it's hard to see this team going backwards from last year.

As for Grand Valley State, they lose two scorers in Andrew Hylen and Cal Yackin (per TFRRS) which is far from ideal. Even so, the Lakers should have more than enough reinforcements to make up for any major lineup gaps. And based on their history (as well as their current roster), depth is probably the least of this team's worries.

That said, the GVSU men MUST find greater firepower going into 2024. If they don't, then they simply won't be able to scare for the podium. The Lakers had two All-Americans last year, but no one cracked the top-30 at the national meet. And frankly, that wasn't all too surprising when the national meet results were tallied last year.

* * *

Alright, now that we have discussed the traditional powers and last year's podium teams, let's jump around to a few other programs that I think could be fairly interesting. I don't necessarily believe that these are the next-best teams for this fall, but I do think that they are fun groups to chat about.

I really like the Lewis men this year. Just like I mentioned with the Butler men and the Utah women, I think the Flyers have a chance to boast a very complete lineup. They are my personal sleeper team for this fall.

Yes, it's true, Lewis struggled at last year's national meet, fading to 21st place overall. But if you followed that team throughout the 2023 season, then you'd realize that this squad was closer to the top-10 than they were the fringe of the top-20.

Despite what TFRRS may suggest, the Illinois-based distance program only loses Daniel Arimi and Payton Goudreau from last year's national meet squad. Not only that, but they have also added Gavin Jenkins to the team, an 8:44 steeplechaser who originally joined the team last year (as a transfer) with an injury.

That latter name is a big-time addition. If Jenkins can end up providing some firepower to this team -- and Lewis certainly needs it -- then there's a good chance that the Flyers can be a top-10 squad come November. The depth and much-needed experience that Lewis gained last year should give them a fairly high floor for this fall. However, their ceiling for success will mostly rely on how much upfront scoring potency that Coach James Kearney can develop.

Another team that I really like this fall is Augusta. They finished in 15th place at last year's national meet, significantly outperforming our expectations at The Stride Report. And the best part? They return all but one man from their lineup, including their entire top-four.

And you know what else? All six of those men are expected to be seniors (per TFRRS) going into this fall. That fact alone makes me feel like the Jaguars will be a fairly safe and reliable team in our pre-meet predictions come October and November.

Of course, just like Lewis and Grand Valley State (albeit, to different extents), Augusta must find more firepower and identify one or two true low-sticks. Avery Jaynes and Brandon Martin are really solid lead scorers, but they'll need to graduate to a new tier this fall if this squad is going to be among the top-10 in the country.

There is one additional team I found that largely follows the same "numerous returners, tons of depth, needs more firepower" blueprint: Western Washington.

The Vikings will return six men from their national meet lineup which placed 16th overall at the 2023 NCAA D2 XC Championships. And just like Lewis, this team was probably better than what their season finale from last fall suggested.

Losing Andrew Osin, one of their top scorers from last fall, is a tough hit for a team that needs the firepower. He provided some great value alongside Ryan Clough and Kevin McDermott. And yet, there is good reason to believe that this team will just be as talented as they were last year -- maybe even more so.

Part of that is because McDermott had a tremendous year on the track. He looks like he has reached a new tier of fitness. Ttruthfully, it would be a surprise if he was not an All-American later this fall.

But the other, and arguably more important, development is that George Karamitsos is set to return to this lineup in 2024! He sat out of Western Washington's 2023 fall campaign, but he did place 83rd at the NCAA XC Championships back in 2022.

We're still waiting on a handful of coaches to get back to us regarding the eligibility of their upcoming team. So for now, let me close out this one-sided conversation with a few rapid-fire thoughts about a few other teams...

Colorado Christian's scoring is probably going to be carried by three or four men like usual. And somehow, Coach Jon Poag is going to make that select group a top-10 team at some point this fall. I feel like you can just pencil that in now.

I wish I had time to go more in-depth on the Alabama-Huntsville men. They are going to be sneaky-good this fall. I actually think they'll be just as good as their squad from the 2020 COVID season which trounced a strong Lee (Tenn.) team twice that year.

The Catawba men are going to be better than you expect this fall...despite them losing their top runner from last year. They just need one breakout name to give them a scoring spark.

If you want to follow a deep sleeper team, then I would monitor Florida Southern. They do lose a few names, but their upside seems fairly high now that their younger guys have gained some valuable experience.