TSR's 2024 "Way Too Early" NCAA XC Preview (Men's Teams)

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Jul 6, 2024
10 min read

Updated: Jul 21, 2024

Ah, yes.

Cross country.

My favorite time of the year.

Unlike track and field, there is far more volatility (for distance running) during the fall months. Cross country allows us to focus on both the individual and team battles. And for the latter, with seven different runners battling for five scoring spots on each team, the variable nature of each lineup leaves us with far more subjective analysis to offer.

With so much to talk about, I wanted to begin putting pen to paper (or fingers to keyboard) and provide an early look at what the 2024 cross country season may look like. Yes, it's still early and yes, we're still waiting to hear back from coaches on who is returning (and being added). Even so, I thought it would be a good idea to dip our toes into the water and chat about a few items for later this fall.

Today, we'll start with the Division One men.

NOTE: Any analysis offered in this article is not meant to be an indication of where an athlete or team will or will not be ranked in our preseason lists. Eligibility is based off of TFRRS and any feedback that coaches have been able to offer us. We also could not get to ALL nationally relevant teams in this article. Just because a team was not mentioned does not necessarily mean that they are less relevant than other teams which were highlighted.

Alright, so...we all agree that the Oklahoma State men are the national title favorites, right?

According to TFRRS, the only runner who they lose from their 2023 lineup is Alex Maier, their fifth scorer at the NCAA XC Championships who placed 15th overall. Sure, that's only one guy who was a backend scorer, but trying to find someone else who can be a top-20 name in the NCAA isn't exactly easy.

Thankfully, Maier is just one runner and the Cowboys have tons of depth. Adisu Guadia placed 50th at the cross country national meet last fall and showed during the spring that he can be an All-American in 2024. We also saw Will Muirhead place 84th at last year's national meet. If he improves, then the backend portion of this lineup could end up being even better than it was last year.

Of course, like every year, Coach Dave Smith seemingly pulls a top-tier cross country talent out from nowhere and injects that athlete into his lineup. And with Alex Maier now gone, he should have enough scholarship money to land one more key name if he chooses to go the international and/or transfer routes (again).

Simply put, Oklahoma State looks like the ultimate juggernaut as long as they are able to get to November completely healthy. But part of the reason why they look like such heavy favorites this fall is also because the Northern Arizona men have lost a significant portion of their scoring core.

* * *

Nico Young is now gone after turning pro and TFRRS suggests that Drew Bosley, Aaron Las Heras and Brodey Hasty are all out of eligibility as well. That is A TON of lost scoring for one team in one offseason.

The good news for the Lumberjacks is that The Stride Report has recently learned that the NAU men might be adding a very crucial scoring piece to their roster soon. While nothing is yet official or signed, that key piece could pair well with the return of multi-time All-American Santiago Prosser as well as Colin Sahlman, Cael Grotenhuis and Corey Gorgas.

On paper, that above group (with some development and maturation) could still contend for a podium spot if everything breaks their way. However, trying to match the raw firepower of Oklahoma State admittedly feels like a stretch, at least based on how their roster is currently constructed.

But you know what team MIGHT be able to match Oklahoma State's firepower?

Perennial cross country powerhouse, BYU.

The Cougars are seemingly primed to have a lethal group of scorers who may not be too far off from the Cowboys' top-five this fall. Veteran star Casey Clinger is set to return after redshirting last fall and he looked great while racing unattached this past year. Throw in 8:13 steeplechaser James Corrigan (a 2024 Olympian) with Joey Nokes, Creed Thompson, a healthy Davin Thompson and Aidan Troutner and you get a STACKED lineup where five (or maybe even six) men could be All-Americans.

Oklahoma State still has more potent firepower than the Cougars do, at least on paper. But if the Stillwater-based men slip up this fall, and BYU is able to stay healthy, then I would not be totally shocked if the Cougars return to the top of the podium.

Other teams such as New Mexico, Arkansas and Iowa State, along with the possibility of Wisconsin and North Carolina, could also be in contention to reach the podium.

Both the Arkansas men and New Mexico men (who we'll talk about later) have tons of firepower, especially if Peter Maru is available for the former this fall. Meanwhile, Iowa State peaked beautifully last year and now returns most of their men. North Carolina is seemingly one more transfer piece away from replicating the scoring prowess of their 2023 lineup (or close to it) and Wisconsin only loses one runner from their 2023 team if Evan Bishop does stay (although their lone departure would be low-stick Jackson Sharp).

It seems like those five teams are in the hunt (or should be in the hunt) to land one more key name this offseason. If one of them does that, then that team will likely be favored to reach the podium. And more importantly, if that team is Arkansas or New Mexico (or even Alabama), then the idea of the Razorbacks or the Lobos actually contending for the national title wouldn't be totally unrealistic (although it would still be a stretch).

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Let's just randomly chat about a few other teams that have caught my attention when looking at the returners. These aren't programs that I expect to make the podium or even crack the top-10, but there were a handful of projected lineups that I found fascinating.

I think Butler could end up being way better than most people realize. Florian Le Pallec is coming back despite what TFRRS says. With Jesse Hamlin, William Zegarski, Matthew Forrester, David Slapak and Martin Kovacech all set to return, and incoming transfer Austin Gabay having some sneaky-good credentials, the Bulldogs may be one of the more balanced teams in the country this fall.

Sure, this team isn't perfect. Butler will need more reliable firepower next to Le Pallec this fall. Hamlin's consistency has fluctuated at times and Zegarski needs to truly take that next step up from being an impactful middle-lineup contributor to a key lead scorer.

Even so, in a year where a lot of teams lose critical names, I can't help but look at Butler and think, "What exactly is their weakness?" We'll see what my fellow TSR writers think when we finalize our team rankings.

Has anyone been able to figure out Alabama yet? I'm not sure that I have.

The raw talent on this roster is awesome. Not only do Victor Kiprop and Hillary Cheruiyot return, but they also add Dennis Kipruto as well as Dismas Korir. Together, that quartet could end the fall months as All-Americans.

But while the math suggests that the Crimson Tide may be a top-10 team, we still don't fully know what we're getting from Kipruto or Korir on the grass yet. We know that they're talented, but as we have all learned from prior seasons, coming from overseas and racing against NCAA competition is not an easy transition to make. Plus, will Hillary Cheruiyot be able to get past his postseason woes and crack the top-40?

The men from Tuscaloosa have a super high ceiling, especially with their depth still looking pretty solid compared to year's past. However, their top men will need to deliver on expectations when it matters the most to fulfill what we think their potential is.

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I think it would be odd if we didn't touch on Wake Forest, a program which has more or less been called, "The team of the future."

Rocky Hansen is back and healthy. And by the time the fall months roll around, he'll have a shot at returning to the same form that made him a top-10 finisher at both the Virginia Invitational and the Nuttycombe Invite last year.

Of course, Hansen is not necessarily the pivotal deciding factor in how the Demon Deacons will perform this fall. Instead, it's names like Joseph O'Brien, Charlie Sprott, Gavin Ehlers, Hunter Jones and many other youngsters who will need to make leaps in their fitness in the coming months.

It also doesn't hurt that Wake Forest landed JoJo Jourdon, a superstar recruit from Utah who has a 3:59 mile PR and was the 2023 NXN champion.

All four of those returning men who I just listed gained national meet experience last year despite having only freshman eligibility (per TFRRS). In fact, the first three men cracked the top-150 of the national meet (O'Brien finished 81st). And with a recent history of star-laden recruiting classes, the Wake Forest men seemingly have a small army of ready-to-bud low-sticks who could make this squad a major problem for their competitors in November.

That, however, assumes that the core members of this team will continue to make progress in their fitness throughout the year. It also assumes that Rocky Hansen can stay healthy and it further assumes that his teammates will be able to overcome their relative inexperience as sophomores.

But maybe the biggest and most important name of anyone on this roster is Luke Tewalt, a Wake Forest veteran who has been a true low-stick in the past.

During the fall of 2022, Tewalt had a great season, eventually placing 22nd at the NCAA XC Championships. However, since the spring of 2023, the Wake Forest talent simply hasn't been at his best. Tewalt still came through as a middle-lineup scorer for the Demon Deacons last fall, but it was fairly clear that he was not at 100%.

If Tewalt is able to return to peak form and get past the last year of setbacks, then having him as a low-stick for a team that should only get better will be massive for Coach John Hayes.

Alright, let's move to a completely different area of the country: Colorado.

What on Earth is going to happen with this team? While I have yet to hear about any Buffaloes entering the transfer portal, that could theoretically still happen depending on when a new coach is hired (athletes get a 30-day period to enter the transfer portal if their head coach leaves).

But for now, let's assume that all of these athletes are coming back. That leaves the Buffaloes with All-American Austin Vancil as well as other key names such as Noah Hibbard, Kole Mathison, Isaiah Givens, James Overberg, etc. (all according to TFRRS).

And to be blunt, that is not an exciting team.

Now, I do think that this squad can be better than last year. But even if Kole Mathison steps up to be the scorer that we know he can be, there simply needs to be more support and more firepower in this lineup. There is, however, a potential good piece of news for Colorado that could come from all of this chaos.

Adding a new coach from a nationally competitive program could mean that certain athletes from the coach's former program will follow him or her to Boulder. If that happens, then the Buffalo men could end up being a good bit better than some may expect them to be -- maybe even a lot better.

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Speaking of former PAC-12 teams that we have no idea what to think about, what is the direction of the Oregon men this year?

Last fall, the Ducks hardly raced. And when they did, they were very underwhelming, specifically in the postseason where they placed 7th at the West Regional XC Championships. That wasn't supposed to happen to a team that came into the fall listed within the top-10 of our rankings.

The Ducks do return Elliott Cook, someone who could evolve into a sneaky-good low-stick on the grass. He has proven that he can be more than just a miler if called upon. But this squad just lost a large handful of men to transfer scenarios, including Izaiah Steury, Archie Noakes, Abdinasir Hussein and Cameron Stein.

And yet, those departures may not matter a ton this fall. That's because the Ducks landed Evan Dorenkamp via Penn State (who won Paul Short last year) and a star-caliber low-stick in Devin Hart from Texas. Dorenkamp will be an excellent stabilizing scorer and has the potential to match much of the value that Cook has.

Of course, it's Hart who is the biggest x-factor in this whole conversation. The 11th place finisher from 2023 NCAA XC Championships was brilliant last year, looking like one of the most dangerous front-runners in the country.

Admittedly, Hart hasn't looked quite like himself this year. He has still held his own in a handful of races, but other efforts have not been all that good.

If Hart returns to the form that made him a legitimate star last fall, then Oregon should see their 2024 fall campaign end very differently. That, of course, is not to say that there aren't still concerns with this team. There is still plenty of youth and inexperience among the most crucial members of this roster and guys like Connor Burns and Simeon Birnbaum still need to deliver on their high school pedigree.

Simply put, this is a crucial season for Oregon to right the ship and get back on their trajectory to be a podium team in the next few years.

Let's wrap up this discussion by talking about New Mexico, a program that has begun to put some serious funding into their men's track and field and cross country squads. That investment is certainly showing with Habtom Samuel dominating the NCAA and other guys like Evans Kiplagat, Lukas Kiprop and Vincent Chirchir finding great success over the last year as well.

In theory, all four of those men have the potential to be All-Americans this fall. Samuel can win the national title and Kiplagat was already a top-40 finisher at the NCAA XC Championships last year. And after seeing Kiprop run 7:47 (3k) and Chirchir run 28:19 (10k), there's an argument for them to be considered as low-sticks as well.

New Mexico is just one piece away from truly being a podium team -- and it's fair to suggest that they may not be done recruiting. Sure, there are still some questions about Kiprop's consistency and what Chirchir can do on the grass, but the aerobic talent is undeniably present in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

If the Lobos land one more long distance star (or even a stable backend piece), then they will be a massive problem for pretty much any team in the country. Yes, even for Oklahoma State, BYU and Northern Arizona...