TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #3 Colorado Buffaloes

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

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Click here to see our "Just Missed" & "Honorable Mention" teams

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As we reflect on the 2023 offseason and all of the craziness that happened, it seems fair to say that the Florida women stole the show. No distance program in the country made a leap in their ability to be nationally competitive like the Gators did.

Of course, the Colorado women were far more established than the Florida women were before the summer began. And in terms of newcomers, you could make the argument that the Buffaloes were just as productive in the transfer portal over the last few months as the Gators.

Now, as we venture into the 2023 cross country season, the Buffaloes will have a shot at returning to their podium-caliber ways. One of the most historic distance running powerhouses now looks like they have a legitimate shot at returning to the top-four on the national stage and potentially battling for NCAA gold in November.

However, if that's going to happen, then this team needs everyone to stay healthy and have their best races on the same day. And in that scenario, a TSR #3 ranking probably isn't good enough for the Buffaloes.

* * *

Expectations were high for the Colorado women going into last fall. They returned a veteran low-stick in Emily Covert, they brought in two big-time transfers in Bailey Hertenstein and Ella Baran and their supporting cast was very solid.

In our eyes, we thought a shot at the podium was a realistic goal for this group in 2022.

The first true challenge that this team faced last fall came at the Cowboy Jamboree. There, we would see how this new-look lineup fared against other juggernaut distance programs from around the NCAA.

Through three runners, the Buffs looked strong as Bailey Hertenstein, Emily Covert and Ella Baran went 11-16-17, respectively. Sure, each of those women could have been slightly more potent with their low-stick scoring, but that was still an excellent trio of results.

But from there, Colorado would experience a bit of a drop-off as their final two scorers settled for placements of 58th and 60th place overall. Those were by no means bad efforts, but Colorado was then forced to settle for a 4th place team finish.

Overall, the Cowboy Jamboree was a solid start to their season, but there was clearly more work to do. Unfortunately for Colorado, the Buffaloes didn't see many more improvements from their squad at the Nuttycombe Invite.

In Madison, Wisconsin, Hertenstein gave her team a lethal 5th place low-stick result while Emily Covert got by with a strong 29th place low-stick finish of her own. And with Ella Baran in 47th place, the Buffaloes were able to remain competitive through three scorers. However, yet again, the team's final two scorers were too far back, finishing in 108th and 117th place.

In the end, Colorado placed 9th overall in a race where we though they were capable of flirting with a top-five finish. Their lead scorers were solid, but we still wanted to see more from Covert. Their backend also needed a bit more stability and there was no sign of the team's top sophomore, Hannah Miniutti.

Despite their solid, but relatively unexciting, regular season campaign, Colorado would venture to the PAC-12 XC Championships where they likely had their best race of 2022.

On that stage, Hertenstein was incredible, snagging the overall win while Covert made promising improvements to take home 3rd place. And with Ella Baran posting a fantastic 7th place result of her own, Colorado's low-sticks had never looked so potent.

With Kaitlyn Barthell earning a sneaky-good 16th place finish, Colorado was comfortably ahead of Utah. However, with their final scorer placing 42nd overall, the Buffs actually tied with the Utes for the team title!

In the end, Colorado won the tie-breaker and secured gold to take down a very good field of rising distance programs. It was a massive confidence booster for a squad that likely came into the fall with podium expectations.

After navigating through the Mountain Regional XC Championships, the Buffaloes would end their season on the national stage. And while they didn't necessarily have a poor race, it was also not their best effort.

Hertenstein (5th) capped off an incredible season on the grass while Baran (30th) had one of the best postseason peaks of any All-American at the NCAA XC Championships. Gabrielle Orie (78th) had a surprisingly great race, posting one of her best performances of her career to snag the third scoring spot in this lineup.

However, Covert (105th) struggled in her season finale while Barthell (129th) cut off the scoring as the team's fifth runner. In the end, the Boulder-based women finished 11th overall in the team standings, a disappointing end to a season that held so much promise.

* * *

Trying to analyze and explain the narrative around Colorado this fall isn't easy. They are (likely) going to look much more different than they did last year and there are numerous ways that this team could reach the podium.

Just one or two runners could dramatically alter the trajectory of this program.

Yes, it's true, the Buffs do lose both Kaitlyn Barthell and Gabrielle Orie from last year's lineup. Those were two veterans who often plugged the fourth and fifth scoring spots for Colorado last year.

For most cross country teams that struggled with depth, those would be concerning departures. Of course, Colorado isn't like, "most teams." That's because this squad brought in one of the best transfer and recruiting hauls of any team in the nation this past offseason.

And the main low-stick scorers from last year -- Bailey Hertenstein, Emily Covert and Ella Baran -- are all set to return!

But the main challenge that this team will face in 2023 isn't a lack of firepower and it's probably not going to be a lack of depth. Consistency isn't even a major issue. Instead, it's the health and availability of nearly everyone who is projected to make this team's top-seven.

On paper, this squad is talented enough to win the team national title in November. We firmly believe that. However, in order for that to happen, everyone in this lineup needs to be firing on all cylinders by the time they reach the national stage.

* * *

Let's begin our conversation with Hertenstein, the former Indiana runner who evolved into one of the more dominant cross country runners in the NCAA last fall.

The long distance star has predominately contested the 1500 meters on the track, but it's clear that her aerobic-centric strength is the greatest aspect of her resume. Her Cowboy Jamboree race was solid last fall, but 5th place finishes at both Nuttycombe and the NCAA XC Championships, as well as a PAC-12 individual title, left her as one of the most valuable women on the grass in 2022.

At her best, Hertenstein is a juggernaut star and legitimately one of the best low-sticks in the country. And yet, it feels like she is often overlooked. That may have to do with her fairly modest outdoor track campaign this past spring.

Earlier this year, Hertenstein mentioned in an Instagram post that she had dealt with a "series of minor injuries," during the winter months and that had ultimately affected her efforts on the oval. Does that mean that we should expect her to be fully healthy this fall?

After running 4:13 (1500) back in May, that seems like a fair assumption to make.

We then come to Ella Baran, a woman who is ranked at TSR #29 in our preseason individual rankings. The former Division Three star, who joined the Buffaloes from Johns Hopkins last fall, evolved into a legitimate ace over the last year.

After a few strong, but unsurprising, results in the regular season, something clicked with Baran where she finished 7th the PAC-12 XC Championships and 30th at the national meet. Following that, she ran times of 8:57 (3k) and 15:33 (5k), qualifying for both the indoor and outdoor national meets.

Colorado has been able to help Baran realize her true talent, but her fitness still needs more refinement. Even so, if she can take her postseason results from last fall and build upon them going into the 2023 cross country, then she should be yet another excellent low-stick option.

And then there is Emily Covert, a Minnesota native who is no longer a high-rising youngster. Instead, she's an experienced veteran with a ton of talent who also holds plenty of uncertainty as we enter the 2023 cross country season.

In the spring of 2022, Covert qualified for the outdoor national meet over both the 5000 meters and the 10,000 meters. She eventually finished 4th overall to earn All-American honors in the latter event after running 32:30 (10k) earlier that spring.

With a 31st place finish at the 2021 NCAA Fall XC Championships on her resume, expectations were incredibly high for Covert last fall. And while she had moments of brilliance (like placing 3rd at the PAC-12 XC Championships), her season as a whole was fairly underwhelming. She was clearly not at 100%.

Covert would later disclose that she had a "minor injury" during the fall and then in the winter, she contracted mononucleosis (also known as mono).

But now, we're expecting that Covert's bad luck is behind her. And by using a redshirt outdoor track season to regroup and hit refresh, there is plenty of potential for Covert to return to her All-American ways.

Does her recent racing absence and ailments leave us a little concerned? Yes, they do, but we could say that about a lot of women on this team. And based on an April 2nd interview with The Running Effect, Covert sounded fairly positive about where her fitness was at during the spring months.

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In our eyes, those are the core returners to watch for Colorado this fall. However, it's everyone else on this team, specifically the newcomers, who could potentially put this squad at the very top of the podium in November.

Let's just jump right into it: Natalie Cook is now a Colorado Buffalo.

That's not something that you expected to read prior to this past summer, did you?

As many of you know, Cook was a freshman megastar last fall for Oklahoma State. She won the Cowboy Jamboree in her collegiate debut and placed 7th at the NCAA XC Championships. The now-former Cowgirl star would later run 15:24 for 5000 meters on the indoor oval back in December.

However, injuries during the winter months clearly affected Cook who rarely raced. And after announcing that she would sit out for the outdoor track season, the rookie ace entered the transfer portal.

We'll admit, seeing Cook land with the Buffaloes was a bit of a surprise. Colorado is traditionally viewed as a mileage-heavy program and Cook is coming off of an injury that kept her out of competition for most of the winter and all of the spring.

To be clear, it would be unfair to generalize a reputation and assume that training adjustments wouldn't be made for Cook or anyone else. It was just a surprise to see her end up in Boulder.

We haven't seen Cook race since March and we haven't seen her put together a complete season since last November. On paper, she is someone who can give the Buffaloes enough firepower to contend with the top-two teams in our rankings, but we just don't know what her current fitness status is like.

If she's just as good as last fall, then we might as well put Colorado down as a podium lock...if they aren't already at that point.

Another key transfer to highlight is Samree Dishon, a fantastic low-stick scorer for the New Mexico women last fall. She opted to enter the transfer portal prior to the departure of Coach Joe Franklin who left the Lobos for Louisville.

Last fall, Dishon placed 13th at Joe Piane and then 8th at Nuttycombe. Those were outstanding results that deserved major respect. However, her race at the Mountain Regional XC Championships was surprisingly poor. And while she did rebound at the national meet, we thought this former Lobo could have been better than a 36th place All-American.

We didn't see Dishon race after the month of April, and that's not super encouraging to see. Even so, we view Dishon as one of the more stable names of this roster -- it's more likely than not that she'll give Colorado yet another true low-stick to rally around this fall.

And now for Marlee Starliper, yet another surprising transfer who joined Colorado earlier this this year just after the NCAA Outdoor Championships.

Starliper was a former high school superstar who committed to NC State. However, countless injuries have plagued her collegiate career. She has only been able to put together one full season of competition during her time in the NCAA.

When Starliper was racing and at 100%, she ran a 5000 meter personal best of 15:36, qualified for the 2022 outdoor national meet and finished 12th at the 2022 Joe Piane XC Invitational.

And those are great, low-stick-caliber results!

But truthfully, after years of racing absences, we're not heavily banking on Starliper playing a major role for this team in 2023. Of course, if she does run and put together a full season of competition, then Colorado won the lottery. At the very least, adding this former Wolfpack runner leaves this team with tons of upside and virtually zero downside.

This article is already longer than I thought it would be, so let's wrap up with a few other women to keep an eye on.

Karrie Baloga is an incoming recruit who was a true star in high school. The New York native holds personal bests of 4:37 (mile), 10:27 (3k steeple), 10:07 (two miles) and 16:49 (5k XC) from her prep days. She also placed 5th at the 2023 USATF U20 XC National Championships and later posted an incredible 13th place finish at the U20 World XC Championships.

This incoming rookie sits at TSR #47 in our preseason individual rankings. And while she does have immense talent, the winner of the 2022 Champs Sports XC National Championships is still young and inexperienced. She'll be a major x-factor for this team over the next few months.

Other names to watch include Abbey Nechanicky (a star recruit from Minnesota), Katie Doucette (one of the better D2 distance runners from Western Colorado) and Hannah Miniutti (a strong scoring option in 2021 who was injured last fall).

Each of those women have legitimate potential to contribute to this team in 2023.

* * *

The main messaging with this team is simple: If everyone stays healthy, then there is a very realistic chance that this squad wins a national title in Charlottesville, Virginia. In fact, we would even say that they have greater firepower than our TSR #2 team and better depth than our current TSR #1 team.

The Buffaloes are sincerely that good.

But with Hertenstein, Covert, Miniutti, Cook and Starliper all struggling with injuries (to varying extents) over the last year, putting any bets on this team in the month of September admittedly feels risky.

Some people may suggest that this team deserves our TSR #2 spot. And frankly, we wouldn't argue with you. In terms of raw talent, this roster isn't just good, they're scary good. If everyone comes together and has the best season that they're capable of having, then you're looking at a borderline historic lineup this fall.