TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #4 Florida Gators

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

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Click here to see our "Just Missed" & "Honorable Mention" teams

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Three months ago, we would have laughed at anyone who ranked the Florida women in their nationwide top-five going into the 2023 cross country season.

But as we enter the month of September, it's the Gators who are doing the laughing.

In my eight and a half years of covering this sport, I don't know if I've ever seen a distance roster improve in a single offseason by as much as the Florida women did this past summer. Back in early June, it was highly unlikely that we would have even ranked the Gators in our top-25 team rankings.

Nowadays, they're entering our preseason list at TSR #4.

A team that once rallied around a singular low-stick as their focal superstar now has four high-octane standouts who are among the absolute best runners in the NCAA on the grass. And with a still-developing backend, Coach Will Palmer has dramatically changed the identity of Florida's distance program.

And now, he could be gunning for the national title.

* * *

Admittedly, it doesn't feel like there is much point in reviewing Florida's 2022 cross country season. This team is going to look borderline unrecognizable in terms of the scoring personnel that they're going to field in 2023 compared to last fall.

However, reflecting on this team's 2022 fall campaign should still be helpful when it comes to understanding the magnitude of their rise going into the next few months.

Despite toeing the line for a few early-season rust-busters, the Florida women didn't field a fully loaded cross country lineup last fall until they reached the Arturo Barrios Invitational. It wasn't the most competitive regular season meet, but the field did feature strong teams such as Ohio State and Lipscomb.

In that race, Parker Valby dominated. She easily pulled away from Buckeye standout Addie Engel and put together one of the most impressive solo performances of the season. After her, the Gators had Vasileia Spyrou and Jordan Shapiro post respectable 6th and 7th place finishes.

Through three runners, the Florida women were actually tied with Ohio State, a nationally ranked team that built a reputation around how good their top scoring trio was last fall. That had to feel good for the Gators who weren't expected to contend with their BIG 10 counterparts.

That, however, would be the end of the good news for Florida. With their final two scorers finishing 46th and 48th overall, the Gators had to settle for a 3rd place finish. It wasn't necessarily a great team result, but defeating Texas A&M by a heavy margin was nice to see.

At the SEC XC Championships, the scoring structure of Florida's lineup was largely no different. Valby (1st) was clearly the best in the field, Shapiro (14th) put together another respectable race and Spyrou (20th) deserved credit for another solid outing.

But with their final two scorers dropping to 58th place and 67th place overall, the Gators simply didn't have the necessary backend support to compete with the top teams in the field. In the end, that meant Florida had to settle for a 5th place finish.

And the South Regional XC Championships?

Well, there were no surprises there, either.

Valby (1st) was awesome, Shapiro (13th) capped off an underrated season and Spyrou (26th) held her own. The team's final two scorers would cross the line in 62nd and 69th place, leaving Florida as the 7th place team in their region.

Florida would not qualify for the national meet, but Valby would advance, individually. Once there, she went on to finish runner-up to Katelyn Tuohy in a wildly entertaining race.

* * *

Gosh, where do we even begin with this program? This is usually the part of the article where we talk about the women that a team loses from their 2022 squad and what structural changes that we could expect from their lineup in 2023.

Of course, no distance program in the NCAA had a more significant roster revamp than Florida did over the last year. Trying to go through those details for the women of Gainesville would seem a little silly and inconsequential.

Instead, let's just start with Parker Valby, one of the single biggest names in collegiate distance running.

The Florida megastar has been elite for over a year now, holding personal bests of 8:49 (3k) and 15:20 (5k). She also has a runner-up finish at the 2022 outdoor national meet (5k), a runner-up finish at the 2022 cross country national meet and she won the 2023 national title over 5000 meters this past spring.

If you're a subscriber to this website, then you likely know who incredible Valby is. Trying to express how insanely talented she is with a few paragraphs probably wouldn't do her justice. Of course, the only cautionary aspect surrounding Valby is something that has been an issue since she first came into the NCAA: her health.

Valby has battled injuries for over the last year. She has been absent from competitive seasons in the past and she has raced through injuries as recently as this past spring.

And yet, despite that, Valby still won the 5k national title back in June and has emerged as the clear second-best distance runner that the NCAA has to offer.

Despite the incredible newcomers set to join this team in 2023, the Florida women must ensure that they keep Valby, a) healthy enough to race, and b) fit enough so that she is at least be a top-10 finisher on the national stage.

For the other low-sticks on this team, being available (while remaining in All-American form) isn't as much of a concern. And after seeing Valby get through the spring months with a lingering leg injury, it's fair to wonder when we'll see her race this fall and what kind of fitness she'll be in.

Of course, if she was able to run 15:25 for 5000 meters and win a national title with an ongoing injury, then in theory, Valby should be good to go by the time we reach October and November...right?

* * *

Ok, we've got our Valby discussion out of the way. Let's talk about everyone else.

Coach Will Palmer went to work as soon as he got to Gainesville, Florida, specifically in the transfer portal. There, he was able to land three major All-American talents in Flomena Asekol, Amelia Mazza-Downie and Elise Thorner, the former of which he used to coach at Alabama.

Asekol joins Florida as a graduate transfer and one of the best three-season threats in the nation. Not only has she run 4:32 in the mile and been a 3rd place All-American in that event (this past winter), but she's also been a true star on the grass.

The former Crimson Tide runner finished 29th at the 2021 NCAA XC Championships and then improved to 14th place at the 2022 version of the national meet.

Admittedly, most of Asekol's best performances on the grass have come on the national stage. Make no mistake, she was still a top-50 runner throughout last fall, but placing 18th at Joe Piane, 10th at the Alabama Crimson Classic and 7th at the SEC XC Championships are results that don't typically translate to a top-15 finish on the national stage.

But as long as Asekol records another top-30 finish on the national stage, then it's largely not going to matter what her regular season results look like. In that scenario, Florida is still a podium team as long as everyone else runs up to expectations.

Of course, if the Gators want to legitimately compete for the national title, then Asekol will likely need to be a touch better than that.

And then there is the former New Mexico duo of Amelia Mazza-Downie and Elise Thorner. Had Coach Joe Franklin not left the Lobos to join Louisville as the team's newest Director of Track & Field and Cross Country, then you probably wouldn't have seen the Florida women ranked at this spot.

Over the last few years, Mazza-Downie has emerged as one of the best pure aerobic-centric athletes in the NCAA. This past year, she ran new personal bests of 15:18 (5k) and 32:07 (10k). In total, she has collected eight All-American finishes between all three seasons of competition and one of those honors came from last fall where she finished 22nd overall.

We currently have Mazza-Downie listed at TSR #10 in our preseason individual cross country rankings. We think the 6k distance is the perfect race for her and we also believe that she has elevated her fitness to an entirely different level since November.

If this Aussie distance star gives Florida a second top-10 runner in the country, then a TSR #4 ranking may be slightly too conservative for this group.

As for Elise Thorner, she isn't quite as potent as Mazza-Downie is on the grass, but she is still exceptionally talented. The multi-time All-American steeplechaser had a very solid 2022 cross country season. She was 20th at Joe Piane, 25th at Nuttycombe and 40th on the national stage, securing the final All-American honor of the meet.

Currently, we have Thorner listed at TSR #41 in our preseason cross country rankings, a spot that is generally on par with how she performed throughout last fall. For a team that is looking to make the podium, replicating the season that she had in 2022 will be more than enough.

However, if the Gators want to compete for a national title, then they would likely benefit from Thorner taking a step up and making further improvements on her fitness. If she evolves into a top-25 runner in the country then...how good does Florida's fifth runner need to be to win NCAA gold?

* * *

Through four runners, this team is STACKED. There might be only one program in the NCAA this fall that has a better top-four than they do.

However, this team is still very limited on depth. That is largely what holds this group back and forces us to place them at TSR #4. If just one of the Gators' top-four runners have a poor day, then the chances of this team being on the podium drops dramatically. They will have very little margin of error.

But the difference between this year's Florida squad and last year's Alabama team (which were both coached by Will Palmer) is that the Gators have depth that we feel slightly more confident about. Yes, their backend group requires some favorable projections, but they also hold plenty promise.

Allison Wilson is another transfer from Alabama. And although we haven't seen her race in a college singlet since the spring of 2021, there is still a ton of optimism about her potential for this fall. She did, after all, run 16:05 for 5000 meters (unattached) this past spring.

If that 5k result can be built upon and translated to the grass, then you're looking at a team that is closer to being ranked at TSR #2 rather than TSR #4. However, there just isn't enough proven evidence (yet) that Wilson can be a top-100 runner in the NCAA.

That could very easily change, and in that scenario, Florida is probably one or two spots higher, but we just don't know if that will happen.

Be sure to also monitor Aussie rookie, Sayla Donnelly. The 18-year old recruit is more of a middle distance talent with times of 2:03 (800) and 4:19 (3k). However, by holding a 9:20 (3k) PR, this overseas youngster could add valuable depth to this squad in 2023.

The Gators are also bringing back Jordan Shapiro and Vasileia Spyrou from last fall, two women who were among the top-10 finishers at the Arturo Barrios Invite and top-20 at the SEC XC Championships. If they can just replicate their results from last year, then this team will never have a truly poor race.

Of course, we're more interested in this team's upside than their downside.

* * *

Our rough math suggests that, barring any surprises, the Florida women could roughly score 70ish points through their first four runners at the NCAA XC Championships (give or take a few). Based off of last year's national meet results, then their final scorer would have to place around 117th (or better) to snag 3rd place.

That's a fairly reasonable goal for a podium team's fifth runner to have, but it's also not something that we can comfortably say will happen for certain. And more importantly, if just one runner in this team's top-four has an "off" day, then we're not super confident that the Gators can match their TSR #4 ranking.

That latter concern holds even more emphasis considering the season-to-season health of Parker Valby. Again, we don't have any reason to believe that she won't race this fall or be in top form, but it's also fair to remain cautious.

Of course, at this point, we're just being nit-picky. There may not be a more exciting team to watch this fall than the Florida women. They are loaded to the brim with firepower and the backend of their lineup has solid upside.

Depending on how much you believe in the next three teams in our rankings, the Gators could realistically win the national title in November.

And no, we don't think that's an exaggeration.