TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #3 Oklahoma State Cowboys

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

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Click here to see our "Just Missed" & "Honorable Mention" teams

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The ending to last year's NCAA XC Championships was the wildest I've ever seen. Having two programs tie for the national title is unheard of and obviously, it made for a much more dramatic and entertaining meet.

But while everyone gave praise to the Northern Arizona for winning gold after such a rocky regular season (deservedly so), it was the Oklahoma State men who had to feel heartbreak. Despite racing on their home course, the Cowboys came up less than one point short of history.

10 months after that race, Coach Dave Smith and his team have sustained losses -- highly important ones at that. And yet, this group still looks like they are positioned to make another serious run at NCAA gold.

With multiple distance stars set to return and key newcomers potentially ready to make an impact, the Oklahoma State men could end up making the fall of 2023 their revenge season.

* * *

Last fall, Oklahoma State kicked-off their competitive efforts on their home course at the Cowboy Jamboree. The main goal was to shake off the rust, but the meet was also plenty competitive with Northern Arizona, BYU and Stanford headlining the field (along with the Cowboys).

In that race, Alex Maier led the way with a statement victory, sending an early-season message to his fellow contenders that he was also going to be in the mix for gold in November.

However, behind him was the bigger surprise.

Victor Shitsama was a multi-time All-American coming into the season, but his 3rd place finish was incredible. No one expected him to place as highly as he did. The 'Pokes also had Rory Leonard earn a very solid 17th place finish to give the team a very potent and stable scoring trio. However, from there, gaps would begin to form.

Jonas Price would settle for a still-strong 43rd place finish while Will Muirhead closed out the team's top-five with a 55th place efforts. Sure, those backend results weren't perfect, but they were still respectable performances.

With Isai Rodriguez and Fouad Messaoudi not in the lineup, and Ryan Schoppe having an "off" day, Oklahoma State could only be happy with how they performed, placing 4th overall behind three other national title contenders.

The top Cowboy scorers wouldn't race again until the postseason, but Schoppe did toe the line once more at the Weis-Crockett Invitational for redemption. There, he placed 7th overall in what was a respectable rebound race. Muirhead took 12th place.

At the BIG 12 XC Championships, a full lineup returned to the grass, this time with Isai Rodriguez and Fouad Messaoudi. But frankly, whether Oklahoma State had that duo or not largely didn't matter -- they easily cruised past Iowa State and Texas.

There were, however, some interesting results.

Rodriguez settled for 5th place in what was essentially his seasonal rust-buster while Messaoudi took home 6th place. That was a solid effort, but it didn't tell us a whole lot about his true potential. Shitsama, meanwhile, had a surprising "off" day and took 15th place, a stark contrast to his 3rd place result from the Cowboy Jamboree.

Even so, the Oklahoma State men advanced through the Midwest Regional XC Championships with zero issues. It was the national meet where the already-discussed drama occurred.

On their home course, Maier, Rodriguez and (surprisingly) Messaoudi were flat-out incredible. That trio went 5-8-12, respectively, in the overall results. Messaoudi was easily the biggest shock of that group given how little we had seen of him up and to that point.

With Shitsama (31st) and Leonard (32nd) putting together incredible All-American results of their own, the Oklahoma State men scored just 83 points. Of course, so did the Northern Arizona men. And as we mentioned earlier, it was the Lumberjacks who won the tie-breaker and therefore won the national title.

Oklahoma State would settle for silver.

* * *

Let's get the bad news out of the way: Isai Rodriguez is gone and so is Rory Leonard. The former is out of eligibility and the latter returned to the UK to run for HOKA.

It would be one thing if just Rodriguez had left or just Leonard had left. But both of those men are gone, leaving Oklahoma State with one less elite low-stick and with one less All-American backend scorer.

For a team that is trying to remain in the national title hunt, we can't ignore those losses. Those departures will leave this team with a fearsome three-headed scoring monster, but it's not like this squad had BYU's depth last fall.

At the national meet, Oklahoma State's sixth runner at the national meet was Ryan Schoppe who finished 53rd overall and their seventh runner was Will Muirhead who placed 140th overall.

With that pair of losses, it's clear that this team needed reinforcements to pair with their backend returners. Of course, Coach Dave Smith clearly knew that. And while we don't perfectly know what the second-half of this varsity lineup will do this fall, we do know that the Cowboys are still going to be a problem for anyone who toes the line against them.

* * *

Alex Maier is likely going to be the focal name of this lineup in 2023. He was beyond fantastic last fall, winning the Cowboy Jamboree and placing 5th at the NCAA XC Championships. He looked like a more refined and mature runner who had truly reached the "elite" tier of the NCAA's top distance stars.

However, during the winter months, Maier seemed...off, but only by the slightest bit.

That sounds ridiculous when you look at the times he ran -- 7:43 (3k) and 13:11 (5k) -- and the fact that he was a two-time All-American at the indoor national meet. But by the outdoor track season, it was clear that this veteran was not at 100%.

While Maier did run under 29:00 (10k) three times last spring, he never ran faster than 28:30 for that distance and only barely qualified for the outdoor national meet in that event where he placed 21st overall.

Make no mistake, Maier is far better and way more talented than what you saw from him this past spring. If he hits the refresh button, then he should be just as potent this fall as he was throughout 2022. And if that's the case, then Oklahoma State should have some comfort in knowing that.

Then there is Fouad Messaoudi, a far more challenging name to discuss given that he only raced twice last fall. The Moroccan standout finished 6th at the BIG 12 XC Championships and then 12th at the NCAA XC Championships. Those two results aren't similar to each other in terms of how impressive they are, leaving us scratching our heads when it comes to setting expectations for him this fall.

Of course, everyone knows how incredible this Oklahoma State distance star was on the track this past winter and even in the early parts of the spring. The Cowboy ace was, somewhat clearly, the most valuable distance runner in the NCAA when it came to indoor track and he won the 3k national title, showing an incredible refinement in his tactical skills.

Despite a tough ending to his outdoor track season, Messaoudi still produced personal bests of 3:35 (1500), 3:55 (mile) and 7:41 (3k). And after being ranked at TSR #7 in our preseason individual rankings, we don't really have a reason to not be high on this Cowboy star.

And then there is Victor Shitsama, a perplexing runner who gave us a variety of different performances last fall. He was outstanding at the Cowboy Jamboree (3rd), struggled at the BIG 12 XC Championships (15th) and then matched preseason expectations at the NCAA XC Championships (31st).

Shitsama is easily one of the more reliable All-American scorers that a team can have on their cross country roster. He has earned national meet finishes of 34th (winter of 2021), 29th (fall of 2021) and 31st (fall of 2022). If Oklahoma State wants to contend for the national title, they would greatly benefit from him taking a step closer to the top-20.

That, of course, feels like it's plenty possible for Shitsama. After an outdoor track season where he ran 8:30 in the steeplechase and earned All-American honors, we gave this Oklahoma State standout a bump in our preseason rankings by placing him at TSR #22.

* * *

We believe that Oklahoma State has three of the 22-best men in the NCAA as we head into the 2023 cross country season. As far as scoring trios are concerned, the 'Pokes should have no issues later this fall.

The rest of this lineup, however, is where things get tricky and where questions start getting asked. There is a ton of outstanding talent that can fill out this team's top-seven, but we don't know with exact precision what they can offer on the grass.

Ryan Schoppe is the other key returner to watch this fall. He struggled at the Cowboy Jamboree (98th), had decent rebound races at the Weis-Crockett Invite (7th) and the BIG 12 XC Championships (7th) and then had a solid showing on the national stage (53rd).

But on the track, Shoppe was outstanding. He ran times of 3:55 (mile) and 7:41.99 (3k) during the winter months before going to the outdoor oval where he ran 13:37 (5k). His spring campaign wasn't nearly as strong as what he did during the indoor track season, but it was apparent that this Texas native had taken another step up in his fitness.

Truthfully, we have no idea what to expect from Schoppe this fall. He was listed in the "Just Missed" section of our preseason individual rankings, but if Oklahoma State wants to be in contention for the national title, then they need him to reach All-American status.

The good news is that Schoppe is clearly talented enough to do that. We don't have to bank on any additional natural progression with him -- we already saw that in the winter. Of course, actually delivering on that potential is a different story.

We then come to Laban Kipkemboi and Adisu Goade, two international recruits to Oklahoma State's 2023 roster. Both of these men have an immense amount of talent, but it's unclear just how good Kipkemboi is and how either of these men will translate their success to the cross country course.

Kipkemboi is someone who we know very little about. The current understanding is that this guy can toe the line for pretty much any distance and be majorly competitive. His rumored personal bests are somewhere around 3:38 (1500), 13:45 (5k) and 8:35 (steeple), but we can't confirm those marks and truthfully, we don't think we ever will be able to.

But do you know who else was an elite Kenyan rookie who came into the NCAA last fall without us knowing much about them? Billah Jepkirui, someone who is now one of the top women in the nation and someone who runs for Oklahoma State.

Kipkemboi is a major wild card. But if he's as good as Jepkirui was last year, then the Cowboys may have found their fourth All-American star.

As for Adisu Goade (Guadia), he's a 20-year old Israeli who has run fantastic times of 13:49 (5k) and 28:17 (10k). We're still learning more about him, but this is also someone who finished 6th at the 2022 European U23 XC Championships back in December.

In our eyes, we think Goade could very easily be the fifth (or even sixth) All-American talent on this team. He'll need to continue developing, but he feels like a perfect fit for an Oklahoma State team that needs true heavy-hitters in the longer distances to fill out their lineup.

As for everyone else, names like Jonas Price, Alex Stitt, Christopher Middleton-Pearson and Will Muirhead have shown tons of promise over the last year. Each of those men have subtly improved in recent seasons and one of them (likely Price) could be due for a breakout fall campaign. If that happens, then depth won't be a concern for Oklahoma State.

There are also a ton of excellent distance recruits entering this program. Names like Ayden Granados, Jacob Deacon, Hamish Hart and Keegan Thomas have all thrown down quite a few head-turning distance marks. If one of those men pop this fall, then the Cowboys will have more firepower than they know what to do with.

* * *

On paper, the Oklahoma State men have the potential to win a national title this fall. That, however, requires a handful of things breaking their way.

Maier has to shake off whatever happened to him this past spring.

Messaoudi has to prove that his national meet performance from last fall wasn't a fluke.

Shitsama needs to take a (small) step up in his All-American efforts on the national stage.

Schoppe needs to make a jump into the All-American range.

Both Kipkemboi and Goade need to translate their raw talent to the NCAA.

And the best part? It's very realistic that all of that will happen for the Cowboys.

In our eyes, Oklahoma State's talent could end up being just as good as the top-two teams in our rankings. And with revenge on their minds from last year, we wouldn't want to bet against a motivated cross country squad with plenty of distance running weapons.