TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #16 Arkansas Razorbacks

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

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Click here to see our "Just Missed" & "Honorable Mention" teams

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Death, taxes and the Arkansas women having a competitive cross country team.

These are the guarantees in life.

Admittedly, the Lady Razorbacks didn't have their strongest fall campaign in 2022. They were unable to meet preseason expectations, they lacked depth and certain scorers never delivered on their potential like we thought they would.

And yet, despite all of that, it would be a mistake to say that the Arkansas women had run poorly. All things considered, they actually held their own fairly well. But as we enter the fall of 2023, the ladies from Fayetteville will be tasked with figuring out a way to improve the scoring structure of their varsity lineup.

* * *

The Arkansas women began their 2022 cross country season at the Cowboy Jamboree, a race which turned out to be one of (if not the) most competitive September-time meets in NCAA history. And at certain points of their lineup, the Razorbacks looked overwhelmed.

Isabel Van Camp had a huge race to secure a monster 10th place finish, giving the Razorbacks a true low-stick to lean on. Meanwhile, then-freshman Mia Cochran would have an outstanding race in her own right to place 24th.

Through two runners, things were looking good for Arkansas.

But then Sydney Thorvaldson settled for a 44th place finish. And while that was far from a bad result, we thought she could have crossed the line potentially 10 to 15 spots higher. It also didn't help that the final two women in this lineup ended up placing 80th and 93rd, sending Arkansas tumbling back to 9th in the team standings.

While maybe not their best effort, it was hard to put too much stock into this performance. The Razorbacks had a strong top-two, could probably get more firepower out of Thorvaldson and were likely capable of improving their backend.

After cruising through the Chile Pepper XC Festival where they put five women in the top-15, the Razorbacks ventured to the Nuttycombe Invite. It was a venue that would prove to be more challenging than what they saw at the Cowboy Jamboree.

In Madison, Wisconsin, we saw Van Camp thrive. A 10th place finish was massive for a team that needed to make up for their backend scoring deficiencies. And when paired with the efforts of Thorvaldson (78th) and Cochran (80th), this Arkansas team was primed to make some noise...or so we thought.

We wouldn't see the final two Razorback scorers cross the line until 180th and 195th place. Those two results ultimately sent their team score crumbling back to 19th place, just three points shy of Michigan State.

And the SEC XC Championships? It was more of the same thing. Van Camp (4th), Thorvaldson (11th) and Cochran (12th) were great. The rest of this lineup, however, didn't crack the top-20, although no one was surprised to see this squad finish runner-up behind a loaded Alabama team and ahead of Ole Miss.

After cruising through the South Central region, the performances that we saw from the Razorbacks at the NCAA XC Championships largely epitomized their season as a whole. They had a respectable top-three, but the second-half of their lineup left us wanting so much more.

Van Camp's 48th place finish could have been better, but that was far from a devastating result. Cochran, meanwhile, threw down a great 64th place finish and had tons to be proud of. As for Thorvaldson, she settled for 113th place. That, admittedly, wasn't a great finish, but for what Arkansas needed, it was a passable result.

But their final two scorers? Well, they finished 178th and 211th.

The Razorbacks would finish 21st overall in the final standings.

* * *

In many instances, this team is going to be largely no different than they were last year, specifically in terms of where their scoring is coming from. And yet, the areas where they did make adjustments could yield far stronger results this fall.

Arkansas' top-three runners -- Van Camp, Cochran and Thorvaldson -- are all set to come back in 2023. But their typical fourth and fifth runners from 2022? Well, they're both gone, either via expired eligibility (Gracie Hyde) or a transfer situation (Taylor Ewert).

Losing your final two scorers from a team that was already struggling (a lot) with depth is far from ideal. But in actuality, the net scoring differential really shouldn't be all that damaging. Whoever the Razorbacks are able to find to fill the fourth and fifth spots of their lineup with should at least be able to fill the roles that Hyde and Ewert left behind, at a minimum.

And even if they can't, then we were certainly wouldn't expect them to be much further off.

There are also a few key names entering this team who could make a significant impact on the Razorbacks over the next few months. Yes, some of those women require some favorable projections, but having the backend of this lineup refreshed with a mix of high-upside and stable distance talents is exactly what this team needs.

Plus, the national stage left plenty of room for both Van Camp and Thorvaldson to be better. So when you pair that potential with the newcomers and the plethora of up-and-coming youngsters on this roster, then you can see why we opted to rank this team at TSR #16.

* * *

Isabel Van Camp isn't necessarily as straightforward of a name to analyze as you'd think. In the spring of 2022, she was fantastic over 5000 meters, running a personal best of 15:35 en route to an All-American honor.

And as we detailed above, she was a lethal standout star on the grass throughout most of the 2022 cross country season.

Yes, Van Camp struggled slightly on the national stage, but it was an injury this past winter that has taken her out of competition since then. The uncertainty that comes with that injury, specifically regarding her fitness and availability, leaves us a bit more on the cautious side about expectations for her going into this fall.

Even so, if this star low-stick is just at 90% of her top fitness this fall, then that'll be more than enough to carry this team yet again going into October and November.

However, the bigger name to watch may be Mia Cochran, the rising sophomore from Pennsylvania who showed tremendous promise as a rookie last fall. With finishes of 24th at the Cowboy Jamboree, 80th at Nuttycombe, 12th at the SEC XC Championships and 64th on the national stage, Cochran has the chance to be a true low-stick star in 2023.

Of course, that entire premise hinges on the idea that Cochran continues to grow and improve. We haven't seen her race since February which doesn't exactly bring us a ton of comfort, but her talent is undeniable and we would even argue that her upside is among the best in the NCAA.

We're very big fans of the runner that she could be this fall and beyond.

And then there's Sydney Thorvaldson, a sometimes head-scratching distance talent who very clearly thrives in the longer races, but has had moments of inconsistency.

Last fall, she was "just ok" at the Cowboy Jamboree, solid at both the Nuttycombe Invite and the SEC XC Championships and then slightly underwhelming on the national stage. She did, however, have a great year on the track, running 15:41 for 5000 meters and finishing 12th over that distance at the outdoor national meet.

As we have mentioned numerous times in past articles, we will continue to reiterate our belief that Sydney Thorvaldson is one of the more naturally talented, aerobic-centric distance talents in the NCAA.

However, up until this past spring, we hadn't seen her deliver on that potential in its entirety.

Some people may think that we robbed her of any kind of mention in our preseason individual rankings -- and we wouldn't totally disagree with you. But consistency, as well as the production of top results that we know that she is capable of, are what we need to see from Thorvaldson this fall.

But if she turns into the low-stick ace that we believe she can be, then it won't matter what the rest of this lineup looks like -- Arkansas will be better than TSR #16.

* * *

Alright...now for the rest of this lineup.

The Arkansas women did add a middle distance standout in Tiana LoStracco to their roster (as a transfer) earlier this year. And with personal bests of 4:39 (mile) and 4:10 (1500), you would think that this former Bradley runner could offer some scoring value to this cross country team in the coming months.

However, this is someone who was 33rd at the Bradley Pink Classic and 42nd at the Midwest Regional XC Championships. And even with improvements, LoStracco's impact may be no different than Hyde or Ewert from last fall.

But what about Laura Taborda? She ran for Ole Miss last fall before quickly transferring over to the Razorbacks. She also ran 9:50 in the steeplechase this past spring, making her a key name to watch as we enter the fall months.

At the very least, Taborda gives the Razorbacks a veteran presence with some scoring insurance. If she's able to fully translate her success from the barriers to the grass, then this may end up being a conservative spot for the Arkansas women. And even if she doesn't, then she'll at least offer greater reliability from a backend scoring perspective.

And yet, despite all of the names who we have listed in this article, it's incoming rookie Paityn Noe who is arguably the most important woman to monitor on this year's Arkansas team.

The Iowa native was a true star at the high school level, specifically over the past year. On the track, she ran phenomenal times of 4:43 (mile), 9:25 (3k), 10:03 (two miles) and 16:04 (5k). This is also someone who placed 10th at the NXN Championships last fall as well as 3rd at the Champs Sports XC National Championships.

Simply put, Noe could be a true ace as soon as this year.

If that happens, then you can forget about any concerns that we have about depth for Arkansas. In a scenario like that, this team will be loaded with enough firepower where support scoring will be an afterthought.

However, if you look at Arkansas' recent cross country rosters from the last few years, which has been loaded with youngsters, you'll find that some of these underclassmen have been a bit "hit-or-miss". Sure, Mia Cochran was excellent as a freshman, but there have been plenty of former prep stars who have yet to fully translate their success to the NCAA.

Of course, to be very clear, that doesn't mean that they won't eventually reach that point -- the Razorbacks, after all, have produced numerous collegiate superstars before. But before we rank the Arkansas women any higher, we want to see what kind of impact Noe is going to have on this team.

We do believe that she'll be able to cut-off a significant amount of points compared to last year and that's largely why we have this group ranked at TSR #16. We don't, however, have a good idea of just how many points Noe will be able to cut-off on a consistent basis.

And if one of those many still-young distance talents finally makes a leap in their fitness, then you're looking at an Arkansas team that is (probably) ranked inside of our top-15 fairly comfortably.

* * *

There are a lot of ways that the Razorbacks could be dramatically better than this ranking once we reach October and November. And yet, there are still a ton of questions surrounding this team which are holding us back from ranking them any higher.

What is the status of Isabel Van Camp? Will Mia Cochran take that next jump? Can Sydney Thorvaldson fully translate her recent success to the grass, consistently? Does Laura Taborda's introduction to this team dramatically change their scoring structure? What should we expect from Paityn Noe in her first year with Arkansas? Are there any other still-young distance talents who could have a breakout season?

In case you can't tell, this team isn't easy to analyze.

By ranking them at TSR #16, we're giving the Arkansas women a slight nod of approval. Despite there being a few scenarios where this team could struggle, there are also a handful of ways as to how this team could be better than last fall.

Of course, knowing the history of this program, we may regret not placing this team higher by the time that the national meet rolls around.