TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #16 Portland Pilots

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

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Click here to see our "Just Missed" & "Honorable Mention" teams

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I know what some of you are probably thinking.

"Garrett, this team didn't even qualify for the national meet last year! How are they still ranked as high as TSR #16 in your 2023 preseason rankings?"

Yes, it's true, the Pilots shockingly didn't make it out of the West region during the 2022 cross country season. A team that was comfortably viewed as a top-20 program throughout last fall chose a poor time to have the worst race of their season. And as a result, they were omitted from the NCAA XC Championships.

But make no mistake, that lone effort was largely just a fluke, at least in our eyes it was. Last year, this team was extremely deep and plenty consistent. They ran very well at the Nuttycombe Invitational and their team should be just as good in 2023 as they were in 2022.

In fact, they may even be better.

* * *

Unlike a few other teams, the Portland men didn't truly begin their competitive season until the Nuttycombe Invite where they fielded a full lineup. The Pilots entered the Wisconsin-hosted meet with a squad that had plenty of depth which, in theory, was going to benefit them in a field as big as that.

Sure enough, things went well for the Pilots. The 1-2 punch of Matt Strangio (38th) and Bradley Peloquin (43rd) wasn't overwhelming as far as scoring was concerned, but they were a great lead duo who got this team off to a strong start.

With veteran Jakob Kintzele snagging a valuable 65th place finish and Zak Kirk taking home an 82nd place finish of his own, the Pilots looked excellent through four runners. However, with their fifth runner dropping back to 142nd place, there was only so much that this team could do if they wanted to stay within the top-10.

Even so, the Portland men settled for a still-great 11th place team finish and had all seven of their men finish within the top-152 spots. All in all, it was a successful business trip.

And then there was the West Coast Conference XC Championships. It was a meet that Coach Rob Conner hadn't always put a ton of emphasis on, yet it was one of the more competitive iterations of the meet in recent history.

BYU trounced their competition with ease while Gonzaga put in a strong effort of their own, led by Wil Smith's 3rd place finish. That low-stick result is what ultimately gave the Bulldogs an edge over the Portland men who had no one place higher than 10th, but had their fifth scorer cross the line in 22nd place.

Truthfully, the West Coast Conference XC Championships was a tough race to gauge. The BYU men were clearly the best team, but Gonzaga had given us a few up-and-down performances earlier in the year -- and that result didn't make things any easier.

And then the West Regional XC Championships happened.

To be blunt, the Pilots just weren't good on the regional stage. Peloquin (17th) and Strangio (18th) held their own, but greater firepower closer to the top-10 would have been helpful. And with the final three scorers of this lineup going 31-44-46 in the overall results, the Portland men simply had too many lineup gaps to deal with.

As a result, the Pilots placed 7th overall as a team. With both California Baptist (5th) and Boise State (6th) not advancing to the national meet, the Portland men didn't even have the opportunity to "push" a team into the NCAA XC Championships via the Kolas calculator.

That was ultimately the end of Portland's 2022 cross country season.

* * *

Trying to rank Portland this summer was a little tricky. How do we evaluate this team for the fall of 2023 compared to last year? The Pilots only had three nationally competitive meets to analyze last fall and each of those showings produced results of varying magnitudes.

They were clearly a top team in the NCAA at the Nuttycombe Invite, but their performance at the West Regional XC Championships wasn't good...at all.

To make matters even more complicated, this team is losing both Jakob Kintzele and Zak Kirk from their 2022 lineup. Those were two key names for Portland who offered great scoring stability for a program that had a great top-two, but a sometimes-variable backend.

And yes, losing those two men makes it difficult to justify a ranking higher than TSR #16.

However, the addition of an underrated transfer and the return of key names, some of whom raced very sparingly last fall, should allow this group to remain nationally competitive in 2023.

Yes, they'll need more certainty as to who is filling out their top-five and greater firepower would be nice to have. But as a collective whole, this group should once again be a top team in the NCAA this fall.

* * *

Matt Strangio and Bradley Peloquin proved to be a great 1-2 punch throughout 2022. Sure, they weren't low-stick stars, but they were strong lead scorers who were generally pretty reliable.

The nice thing about both Strangio and Peloquin is that they both have room for growth. Placing 38th and 43rd at Nuttycombe and then 17th and 18th at the West Regional XC Championships are nice results, but a jump in fitness could axe a chunk of points.

Strangio, in particular, is someone who could emerge as an All-American talent later this fall. On the track, he was incredibly consistent, running times of 3:39 (1500) and 13:30 (5k) earlier this year. He only got better as the winter and spring seasons progressed.

We've seen nationally competitive potential in Strangio since his high school days and we believe that he can be an even more potent low-stick this fall than he was in 2022. Of course, we still need to see that fully translate to the grass this fall.

But after those two, who is going to fill the next few scoring spots in this lineup? Losing Kintzele and Kirk, after all, aren't departures that we can just passively ignore.

Luckily, Coach Rob Conner was able to land a veteran graduate transfer in Thomas Chaston via Colorado State. The former Ram was a lead scorer for his team last fall, placing 16th at the Griak Invitational, 61st at Nuttycombe and 4th at the Mountain West XC Championships.

We're not expecting Chaston to be as good as Strangio or Peloquin over the next few months. We do, however, anticipate that he'll be just as good as Kintzele, and maybe even better. Admittedly, his performance at last year's national meet wasn't great, but he was very consistent outside of that showing.

It also didn't hurt that he ran 8:47 in the steeplechase this past spring.

Chaston is going to be extremely valuable when it comes to filling the gaps left behind by Kintzele and/or Kirk. He's just as experienced as those two men were and he's arguably already more accomplished on the grass than they were last year.

But...who is taking the fourth spot?

Enter Jonas Gertsen.

We'll admit, he wasn't great on the grass in his two meets last year. However, this veteran is someone who finished 64th at the 2021 NCAA XC Championships. He also ran 13:46 (5k) and 28:45 (10k) this past spring.

Whatever was holding Gertsen back last fall didn't seem to be an issue just a few months ago. And given his history of national meet success, we would expect this long distance standout to return to his 2021 form, or at least close to it.

No, that's not guaranteed to happen, but it seems highly likely given what he has done in the past. And if he turns out to be even better this fall than we are anticipating, then you're looking at a team that could get fairly close to the top-10 portion of our rankings.

* * *

On paper, this team is going to look no different, structurally, through four runners than they did last year. But the rest of this lineup leaves us with just as many questions as we had at the end of the 2022 cross country season.

Daniel Abadala is a JUCO transfer who was redshirted last year. However, with a 28:51 (10k) PR from this past spring, it feels like he could make legitimate contributions to this team at their fifth scoring spot.

Estanis Ruiz was a star steeplechaser in the spring of 2022 during his time with Loyola-Marymount. But after a very quiet fall campaign and a less exciting 2023 outdoor track season, it's hard to know what we will get from this steeple specialist later this fall.

Ahmed Sado is a former Division Two runner for Adams State who also ran at the JUCO level. He ran 8:42 in the steeplechase this past spring (which was super encouraging to see), but his impact for this team last fall was fairly minimal at times.

Yes, Sado was the occasional scorer for the Pilots last fall, but he wasn't that much better than the sixth or seventh runners on Portland's team. Could that change after a successful year on the track?

Other runners such as Nolan Hosbein, Chris Anderson and Teddy Buckley could also find themselves in the Pilots' top-seven later this fall. Each of those men have shown subtle signs of promise in the longer distances which they could build upon this fall.

* * *

Last year, we ranked the Portland men at TSR #14. And after their race at the Nuttycombe Invitational, that looked like a very fair and accurate preseason ranking.

But trying to balance that effort with their concerning effort at the West Regional XC Championships has proven to be a challenge for The Stride Report. And yes, Portland lost two highly important veteran scorers, but there are two others who should be perfect replacements for them...we think.

Given all of the pros and cons associated with this team, it feels like a TSR #16 ranking is a fair middle-ground. The Pilots are clearly better than what we saw at the tail-end of their 2022 fall campaign, but their firepower could be slightly better and closing out their scoring a bit faster could do wonders for this team.

Regardless, there are numerous men on this Portland roster who could end up as varsity contributors, or even scorers, by November. This team has a highly accomplished and experienced coach in Rob Conner and it seems like most of these men will only get better in 2023.

If that's the case, then maybe last year's preseason ranking is a more accurate spot for the 2023 version of the Portland men.