TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #17 Harvard Crimson

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

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Click here to see our "Just Missed" & "Honorable Mention" teams

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If you've been a reader of The Stride Report for the past year, then you may be having a bit of déjà vu when it comes to Harvard and this spot in our rankings. That, of course, is because we ranked the Harvard men at TSR #17 going into last fall.

Admittedly, the Crimson didn't deliver on their preseason expectations in 2022...well, not until the national meet. Harvard boasted an elite scoring duo last fall, but depth was a major challenge for them on every stage.

In 2023, the narrative surrounding this team will be no different. They have a ton of firepower, but it's the latter-half of their scoring group that will likely limit how much success the Crimson men can/will have.

And yet, at the same time, this year's version of Harvard's cross country squad will likely feature greater upside. They may have a few more varsity options and maybe a more concrete middle lineup contributor or two.

* * *

After beginning their season with a few low-key battles in the northeast, the Harvard men ventured to Stillwater, Oklahoma. There, they toed the line for the Cowboy Jamboree, a meet that would prove to be a massive challenge for a team that was clearly limited on depth.

Unsurprisingly, Acer Iverson (6th) and Graham Blanks (13th) were fantastic. Those two men valiantly fought with some of the best distance talents in the NCAA. And as long as they ran well, this group had a shot of being nationally competitive.

Of course, that 1-2 punch only made up 40% of Harvard's scoring lineup.

Senior David Melville finished in 64th place which was a decent result, but the final two men in the Crimson's top-five were much further back. With the final two runners in this lineup placing 117th and 144th, the Harvard men dropped all the way back to 13th place in the team standings.

The Crimson easily defeated a limited Washington squad (14th), but they weren't all that close to a Texas team (12th) that was listed one spot behind them in our 2022 preseason rankings.

But surely things would be better at the Nuttycombe Invitational...right?

Unfortunately, the answer to that question was "no."

Iverson (8th) and Blanks (26th) delivered great results as expected. However, with Melville settling for 140th place and gaps forming after him, Harvard was pushed back to 21st place. They were 12 points out from 20th place Michigan, but a ways off from the rest of the field.

Simply put, the Crimson needed to offer greater support to Iverson and Blanks if this team was going to be as nationally competitive as we thought they could be during the preseason.

Things didn't get any easier at the Ivy League XC Championships where Princeton edged out Harvard for the win by three points. Yes, Iverson and Blanks went 1-2, but with the smaller field size dulling those low-stick efforts, the Tigers were able to pack in more men between certain portions of the Crimson's lineup.

It was a loss that largely summarized the hurdles that the Harvard men were having throughout last fall.

After advancing through the Northeast Regional XC Championships (where both Melville and Shane Brosnan ran fairly well), the Crimson men would return to Stillwater, Oklahoma for the national meet. And despite struggling to stay nationally competitive for most of the season, it was the final meet of Harvard's season where they looked plenty dangerous.

Blanks had the race of his life, finishing 6th overall in one of the biggest performances of the meet. Iverson, meanwhile, had a slight "off" day, but still salvaged a very encouraging 50th place finish.

The rest of their lineup, admittedly, still wasn't super potent. They were, however, able to offer some level of support. With Joe Ewing (152nd) and Shane Brosnan (156th) holding their own, the Harvard men were able to place 17th overall in the team standings despite their fifth scorer settling for 190th place overall.

In the end, the Crimson finished at the exact same spot as where we had ranked them during the summer months.

* * *

Much like the Alabama men, this isn't a tricky team to figure out.

The Harvard men have two incredibly potent low-sticks, but a highly questionable backend which leaves them extremely vulnerable more times than not. And with David Melville acting as the lone departure from this team's national meet lineup, scoring support has never been a bigger deal for the Crimson men than it is now.

However, everyone else on this team is set to come back. Not only that, but Melville wasn't even a scorer for Harvard at last year's national meet. This roster has already proven that they can be nationally competitive without their middle lineup veteran.

With a heavy slew of elite youngsters set to join this team later this fall, many of which are long distance and cross country specialists, Harvard could end up having a much more stable string of 3-4-5 scorers later this year compared to last.

Yes, that does require a handful of men stepping up and/or improving on their 2022 efforts, but that seems far more possible in 2023 than it did this time last year.

* * *

We don't really need to spend much time on Acer Iverson and Graham Blanks.

For the most part, we know that they are going to be incredible.

Yes, Blanks could have been slightly better in certain races leading up to last year's national meet and Iverson was far better during the regular season than he was at the NCAA XC Championships. But even if those two men have perfect seasons throughout the entirety of this fall, that largely won't make a massive difference in Harvard's final point totals.

Alright...now let's talk about everyone else.

Shane Brosnan was a high school star from the Class of 2022. At the prep level, he finished 7th at the Eastbay XC National Championships and 13th at the Garmin RunningLane XC National Championships, running a 5k PR of 14:25 in the process.

Simply put, this dude was a long distance stud as he entered his first year at Harvard.

Admittedly, much of the 2022 cross country season forced Brosnan into a quick and tricky assimilation to collegiate competition. He may not have been fully ready to tackle the top ranks of the NCAA at times, but by the postseason, he began to show promise.

Finishing 29th at the Northeast Regional XC Championships and 156th on the national stage aren't results that are going to blow you away. But given his youth and inexperience, Brosnan was plenty respectable -- and truthfully, that's all that Harvard needed.

We wouldn't see Brosnan race during the spring months, but new personal bests of 4:05 (mile) and 8:08 (3k) indicated a step in the right direction for him. With a massively valuable year of growth, all-star pedigree and recent (but subtle) progress, this is likely the guy who could make or break this team in 2023.

And then there's Joe Ewing, a guy who is more a miler (owning a 3:58 PR), but posted a 152nd place finish at last year's national meet. It's a similar story for teammate Vivien Henz, a 3:57 miler who placed 12th at last year's Ivy League XC Championships and later 190th at the national meet.

We'll be honest, we're not expecting any jaw-dropping efforts from Ewing or Henz on the grass this fall. However, greater consistency could contribute to cutting off some of the excessive scoring that Harvard dealt with last fall.

Other key names to watch include Reed Pryor, Ben Rosa and Noah Ward.

Pryor ran 8:50 in the steeplechase this past spring, Rosa made decent improvements over the longer distances by running 14:10 over 5000 meters and Ward ran 4:02 in the mile during the winter months.

Of that group, a high-upside talent in Reed Pryor is the biggest name who we're monitoring. If he breaks out like we think he could, then this is going to be an extremely scary team to deal with, especially if the same thing happens with Brosnan.

* * *

Based strictly on returners, the Harvard men have a decent number of options to fill out the rest of their varsity lineup. But truthfully, all of those runners require a heavy amount of favorable speculation in order to justify this ranking.

Sure, one of them will likely prove to be better than expected, but Graham Blanks and Acer Iverson are going to need more help if this group is going to be a top-20 team in the country over the next few months.

And that's where Harvard's recruiting class comes in.

This Ivy League program is bringing in one of the best collections of high school distance talents in the NCAA this year. However, the focal name of this incoming rookie class doesn't hail from the 'States or even Canada.

Instead, he's coming over from Hungary.

Ferenc Kovacs is a rising overseas distance star who has posted some seriously impressive times for someone who is only 19 years old. He also spent a year at a boarding school in Virginia from 2021 to 2022, getting valuable experience racing against top high school competition before returning back to Hungary.

With times of 1:49 (800), 3:39 (1500), 14:08 (5k) and 8:47 (steeple), this European ace looks like he could be a legitimate, high-impact third scorer for a Harvard team that desperately needs the help.

And if you're not sure how those times are translatable to the grass, just know that Kovacs finished 14th overall at the 2022 U20 European XC Championships back in December.

In our eyes, this Hungarian runner still has plenty of youth-based upside. That, in turn, could also make him the guy who elevates the Crimson men beyond TSR #17.

Of course, it's not just one guy who makes up one of the best distance-based recruiting classes in the country. It's highly possible that one of the other incoming Harvard freshmen are able to step into a varsity role for the Crimson later this month.

Owen Bosley, the younger brother of NAU ace Drew Bosley, has run 8:54 for 3200 meters.

Sam Burgess has posted times of 8:21 (3k), 8:58 (two miles) and 14:38 (5k XC). He also earned an excellent 7th place finish at the Champs Sports XC National Championships this past fall.

Charlie Ortmans has run 8:54 (3200) and 14:29 (indoor 5k) while also earning key wins and top finishes on a handful of competitive stages.

Ethan Aidam is more a developmental piece, but surprisingly big PRs of 4:21 (1600) and 9:26 (3200) from this past spring suggest high-end growth over the long-term of his career.

So even in a world where Kovacs isn't the immediate standout scorer that we think he can be, there is still a possibility that one of those true freshmen will crack Harvard's top-five. And with another layer of scoring protection, you can begin to see why the Crimson's cross country team is ranked at TSR #17.

* * *

Despite placing 17th at the 2022 national meet, it would be misleading to say that the Harvard men were the 17th-best team in the country last fall. For the most part, they simply weren't deep enough or consistent enough to be viewed as a top-20 program.

And truthfully, this team isn't going to be much different than they were last fall.

But the more and more I look into this roster, I can't help but be encouraged by all of the lineup options that they have. There are so many talented youngsters and returners on this team who could easily have breakout seasons. In fact, I'm absolutely guaranteed that one of these men (not named Iverson or Blanks) is going to have an unexpectedly great year.

Of course, it's the final two positions of this lineup that carry a heavy amount of uncertainty.

By November, the Harvard men could be in a position where they are struggling to say afloat and possibly be on the verge of missing the national meet. They could also end up in a spot where they are on the fringes of being a top-10 team in the country and preparing themselves for a 2024 campaign that could be historic.

In our eyes, few teams have more variability this fall than the Crimson men.