TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #15 Alabama Crimson Tide

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

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Click here to see our "Just Missed" & "Honorable Mention" teams

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Last year, the Alabama women had a team that was loaded with elite firepower. In essentially every race, they had the best top-four in the country (even at the national meet). As a result, the Crimson Tide landed on the podium and seemed positioned for an exciting future for the 2023-24 academic year.

But then the winter months hit.

And with the change of seasons came roster changes as well.

With former distance coach Will Palmer leaving the program for Florida, and top stars transferring out (while others finished their eligibility), the Crimson Tide seemingly looked like a shell of their former selves.

And yet, despite that, this team has somehow positioned themselves to be in more of a "reloading" stage rather than a "rebuilding" phase.

In 2023, we aren't expecting the Alabama women to remain as the podium-caliber threats that they were last year. Even so, with their returners and newcomers, this team should remain plenty competitive by the time we reach October and November.

* * *

The Crimson Tide women began their 2022 fall campaign at the Joe Piane XC Invitational, an early-season meet where fellow podium and title threats such as NC State and New Mexico would match up against Alabama.

However, through a heavy portion of the race, it looked like the women from Tuscaloosa had a legitimate shot at taking home an upset win. That didn't happen in the end, but Alabama had to be happy about their effort.

Mercy Chelangat and Hilda Olemomoi gave the Crimson Tide women a lethal scoring duo by placing 2nd and 3rd in the overall results, respectively. Meanwhile, Amaris Tyynismaa (15th) and Flomena Asekol (18th) held their own with performances that would typically make them "lead scorers" for other nationally competitive teams.

Alabama's final scorer, Elka Machan, is where the scoring took a jump up after she finished 32nd overall. But all things considered, and based on expectations, that was a much better fifth scoring result than we were expecting to see out of her.

As a result, Alabama snagged a 3rd place finish, just two points out from New Mexico.

That, however, would be the last nationally competitive meet that the 'Bama women toed the line for until the SEC XC Championships. And even on the conference stage, the Crimson Tide were largely unfazed by their competition -- they were just flat-out better.

Chelangat, Olemomoi, Tyynismaa and Asekol went 2-3-5-7 to give Alabama an insurmountable lead over their opponents. And with Machan producing a 19th place finish, the Arkansas women would have needed to cut their point total by more than half to battle for the conference title.

After cruising through the South Regional XC Championships, Alabama's juggernaut roster toed the line for the NCAA XC Championships. On that stage, they were expected to compete for a podium spot and, if everything went perfectly, maybe the national title.

Unsurprisingly, the Crimson Tide quartet of Olemomoi, Tyynismaa, Asekol and Chelangat were phenomenal, going 6-9-14-16 in the overall results. Machan didn't have her best day in 155th place, but that was still enough to give the Crimson Tide an outstanding 3rd place team finish, just 26 points off of New Mexico.

* * *

Everything that you know about the Alabama women from last year...needs to be forgotten. The Crimson Tide are going to look very different this fall compared to 2022, both in terms of personnel and scoring structure.

Yes, losing Coach Will Palmer to the Gators this past winter was brutal for this team, but it was also just the start of the challenges that Alabama has since faced.

Prior to Palmer's exit, the Crimson Tide also lost former high school star Sam McDonnell to the transfer portal. Then, Amaris Tyynismaa took her talents to NC State before Flomena Asekol followed Palmer to Florida earlier this summer.

And with Mercy Chelangat now out of eligibility, the Crimson Tide were left with just one of their four star low-sticks from last fall, Hilda Olemomoi.

At one point, this team didn't look like they would even be ranked going into this season. Alabama had only one true low-stick remaining and for a squad that was already limited on depth, it was hard to see them forming a cohesive scoring group by November.

So what they did they do?

Well, they reloaded.

Sure, we're not expecting the Crimson Tide to steam roll their opponents like they did last fall. But given their collection of new talent and rising distance runners, we feel confident in the options that they have to ultimately match their TSR #15 ranking.

* * *

There's truthfully not much to talk about with Olemomoi. She was elite since day one last fall. The former JUCO runner never had a bad race and easily became one of the most feared long distance talents in the country.

On paper, there's not much more that she can do. Sure, she didn't win any races last fall, but any improvements that she can offer in 2023 would be marginal. The point differential would make an extremely minimal impact.

Even so, having someone as reliable as her to be the focal point of your lineup is extremely encouraging. For an Alabama team that can't afford their top women to have any "off" days this fall, knowing that Olemomoi is always going to get two to six points has to bring this team some level of comfort.

But what if we told you that Olemomoi isn't expected to be the only Alabama low-stick?

That's because in the wake of losing Chelangat, Tyynismaa and Asekol, the Crimson Tide coaching staff was able to able to bring in Kenyan distance star, Doris Cherop.

The overseas distance talent is currently listed at TSR #24 in our preseason individual cross country rankings. That, however, is a shot in the dark. We truly don't know what to expect from this new Alabama low-stick this fall.

During her time overseas, Cherop has run 9:35 in the steeplechase (at altitude) and 14:40 for 5000 meters on the roads (no, that's not a typo). Those are incredible marks that, admittedly, likely signal for this incoming rookie to be just as good as Olemomoi.

Of course, we usually take a cautious approach here at The Stride Report. That 14:40 (5k) PR was run on the always-faster roads in a race that is historically quick. It's also hard to know how her steeplechase mark will translate to the grass.

And in her only cross country race of 2023, Cherop placed 54th over 10,000 meters on the grass. With that result, you can see why we're a little conflicted as to what the expectations should be for her this fall.

Despite the uncertainty, there is still a ton of raw talent within this soon-to-be Alabama runner. She is undeniably an All-American favorite and it feels like she has the potential to replace Tyynismaa or Asekol as soon as this fall.

But even if she doesn't, then that shouldn't be a major deal as long as she is able to emerge as the All-American that we believe she can be.

* * *

Through two runners, the Alabama women are seemingly in a good position. However, as we've seen beforehand, this team will only go as far as their depth allows them to. And while we do think the scoring options for this team are fairly solid, it's also hard to know how good some of these women will be in 2023.

One of the names who catches my attention the most is Joy Gill, a high-upside transfer (who is still very young) from Incarnate Word. The rising sophomore had a quietly great year on the grass last fall, emerging as one of the more underrated distance runners in the south.

After toeing the line for a few unexciting early-season meets, Gill snagged a solid 8th place finish at the Arturo Barrios Invitational. In that race, she took down Ohio State's Andrea Kuhn, someone who went on to place 75th on the national stage.

Following a win at the Southland Conference XC Championships, Gill would secure an 8th place finish at the South Central Regional XC Championships. Unfortunately, she would be the first woman out of qualifying for the national meet, individually.

Even so, the 2022 cross country season was a great fall campaign for someone who was still so young. Admittedly, the competition that Gill faced last year wasn't the strongest, but all things considered, she held her own incredibly well.

Gill doesn't need to be a low-stick or even a lead scorer for this team in 2023. She simply has to replicate the caliber of her performances from last year on a more consistent basis. We love the potential growth that Alabama could get out of her. And in many ways, Gill is the reason why this team is ranked at TSR #15 (instead of TSR #20).

The Alabama women also brought in McKenzie Hogue as a transfer from Samford. She's a solid distance talent has had decent success across all three seasons.

With personal best times of 4:19 (1500) and 16:32 (5k), this incoming Crimson Tide runner will be a nice option to have at the backend of this lineup. She placed 27th at the South Regional XC Championships last fall and was also the 15th place finisher at the Louisville XC Classic (Gold race).

Much like we explained with Joy Gill, the Alabama women don't need Hogue to be a true star. And honestly, they don't need her to even be as good as Gill. But if this former Samford runner can replicate her best performances on a more consistent basis, then that should be enough for this team to get by.

It's a very similar story for Elka Machan. Alabama's fifth scorer from last year was the clear outlier as far as scoring is concerned compared to the team's juggernaut quartet. But all things considered, she actually ran quite well.

Placing 32nd at the Joe Piane XC Invitational is a much better result than some people may realize and a 19th place finish at the SEC XC Championships is fairly solid as well. Sure, Machan probably needed to be a bit better if Alabama was going to capitalize on their full potential last fall, but for a team ranked at TSR #15 this year, she's a great scoring fit.

And if Machan ends up being better this fall than she was last year, then you're looking at someone who could elevate Alabama to a ranking beyond this spot.

There are a handful of other women who could place themselves in Alabama's varsity lineup this fall. However, it's hard to know exactly what their impact will be.

Jami Reed is a long-time veteran who has run times of 4:38 (mile) and 9:19 (3k) on the track. However, her cross country success has been fairly limited. She did place 6th overall at the SEC XC Championships back in 2020, but hasn't come all that close to returning to that fitness since then.

We're not sure if we'll see that version of Reed again, but if we do, then this is a team that will be among the top-10 in the NCAA later this fall.

Other women such as Lilly Walters and Crawford West are high-upside youngsters who could be due for a big year. Now that their rookie campaigns are behind them, the younger core of Alabama's roster could develop even further and even produce a breakout name.

That may be a year away from happening, but it's plenty possible in 2023.

* * *

All things considered, the Alabama coaching staff did a fantastic job rebuilding the scoring structure of this team in just a few months. Losing numerous superstars and your coach is never an easy thing to manage.

And yet, this team still has two true low-sticks, a couple of proven veterans and high-upside youngsters -- the latter of which give the Crimson Tide potential to be even better than their current TSR #15 ranking.

Alabama's newest distance coach, Nick Stenuf, will still need to develop the talent around him. We still need to see if Cherop can (fully) translate her fitness to the grass and the success of this team will likely hinge on how good Joy Gill can be in 2023.

But as we do some rough math and projections with this team, the numbers suggest that this group fits in at the middle portion of our rankings. They aren't going to blow you away, but they'll also be better than you may expect after losing a trio of All-Americans.

Of course, only time will tell if our preseason assessment is correct.