TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #15 Washington Huskies

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

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Click here to see our "Just Missed" & "Honorable Mention" teams

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The Washington men were a (somewhat) tricky team to rank during summer of 2022. However, they were even more challenging to rank during the fall months. And now, as we enter the 2023 cross country season, ranking the Huskies has never been more difficult.

This team lost a small handful of highly important scorers from a 2022 varsity lineup that, at times, underwhelmed. And yet, this is also a team with an unreal amount of talent that they should be able to translate to the grass.

We also don't want to ignore the extensive history of success that the Washington men have been able to produce in recent years. Betting against Andy Powell is never a good idea.

Balancing the departures with the history and potential of this group is a delicate game of analysis that left us scratching our heads when crafting our rankings for this summer. That's why a middle-ground ranking at TSR #15 seems like a fair spot for this program...right?

* * *

The Washington men began their 2022 cross country season at the Cowboy Jamboree. They entered the loaded September-time meet with high expectations after being listed inside of The Stride Report's top-10 portion of our preseason rankings.

Unfortunately, this team barely looked like a top-20 squad on that stage.

Luke Houser was the lone bright spot for this team. His 22nd place finish was a strong result that gave the Huskies a borderline low-stick to rally around. However, from there, the rest of the heavy-hitting scoring that we expected to see from this group never showed up.

Veteran Isaac Green (81st) was the only other distance talent to crack the top-100 while Sam Affolder placed 104th overall to be the team's third scorer. With Evan Jenkins (115th) and Joe Waskom (124th) closing out Washington's top-five, it was hard not to be a little concerned with this team's 14th place finish, over 100 points back of a Harvard team that placed 13th.

Yes, it's true, the Huskies didn't field low-stick star Brian Fay in that race. But even if he had run and finished 10th overall, then the Washington men would have placed...14th overall (after factoring in displacement).

Simply put, it was an ugly race from Washington.

Luckily, things would look a little bit better at the Nuttycombe Invitational. Fay would return to the lineup and offer a very solid 34th place finish. Meanwhile, Green gave this team underrated scoring stability with a 52nd place finish of his own. Houser later settled for a 73rd place finish which wasn't his best race, but he still gave his the Huskies a solid top-three.

But from there, the gaps began to form.

Affolder's 114th place finish wasn't necessarily terrible and the same could be said for Waskom who placed 128th. Even so, Washington as a collective whole could have been a better in a handful of areas.

Regardless, the Huskies salvaged a 15th place team finish. For a group that had struggled so much at the Cowboy Jamaboree, that was a step in the right direction. It was also nice momentum to have going into the postseason.

Sure enough, Washington continued to make subtle improvements, this time at the PAC-12 XC Championships. Fay (8th), Green (11th) and Houser (15th) gave this group a very sturdy trio of scorers while Affolder (23rd) and Waskom (24th) did just enough to get by.

And while it may not have been a perfect race, it was arguably their best team effort of the season. That, in turn, led to Washington placing 3rd overall and taking down an Oregon team that had beat them at Nuttycombe.

Fast forward to the NCAA XC Championships and you could argue that this team had their best race of the 2022 cross country season.

Fay landed at 13th place overall to give Washington a massive low-stick scoring boost that they had been searching for all season long. Houser, meanwhile, finished 42nd on the national stage to effectively give the Huskies yet another low-stick.

Those two men, however, would be the final names to crack the top-100.

Luckily, Isaac Green was able to complete what was a very underappreciated cross country season with a 104th place finish of his own. But after him, the final two Washington runners, Waskom and Ed Trippas, settled for placements of 164th and 168th, respectively.

The national meet was easily the most spread out that the Huskies' lineup had been all season long, but their firepower was also at its peak. That, in turn, led to the Washington men earning a 14th place finish to end their season.

* * *

If you read the seasonal recap above, then you know how incredibly valuable both Brian Fay and Isaac Green were to the Washington men. In a lot of instances, they were the top-two runners for this squad who carried a ton of the Huskies' scoring value.

And generally speaking, they were very reliable.

But now imagine losing both of those men from last year's team.

With that information, it's fair to question how Washington could be ranked at TSR #15 after losing two of their three most important scorers from last fall. And based on how this team's top-five was structured, a lot of their most potent scoring was consolidated to the top-three men in their lineup.

It also doesn't help that backend contributor, Ed Trippas, is also out of cross country eligibility.

But the return of Luke Houser as a low-stick is a nice building block to have. The rest of the returners in this lineup should also be able to improve this fall. However, it's the incoming youngsters and a high-potential transfer who could allow this team to replicate their postseason efforts from 2022.

And yes, this ranking does require some favorable speculation for the Washington men, possibly more than others. However, given the mass number of departures from other top teams around the country and the history of this program, it feels borderline criminal to rank the Huskies any lower than this going into the fall of 2023.

* * *

Let's start with Luke Houser, a name who sparked some debate when we were crafting our preseason individual cross country rankings earlier this summer.

At TSR #39, this Washington veteran is expected to be the main low-stick for this team over the next few months. His extensive experience and career-long consistency has been highly encouraging to see. However, he hasn't always showcased the upper-end firepower on the grass that Brian Fay did last year.

On the national stage, Houser has finished 51st and 42nd. He also finished 10th at the 2021 PAC-12 Winter XC Championships and placed 27th at the Cowboy Jamboree. But then there are other times where he would fade just a bit, placing 73rd at Nuttycombe and 15th at the 2022 PAC-12 XC Championships.

To be clear, it's rare for Houser to have a truly poor race on the grass. At the very least, you know that you're going to get some scoring value out of him. And after seeing him run 3:52 (mile) and 7:48 (3k) this past winter, it wouldn't be surprising to see this Husky ace be even more potent as a low-stick ace in 2023.

And if he's able to replicate his best performances on a more consistent basis, then you're looking at someone whose scoring value can almost perfectly replace Brian Fay.

But as far as true low-sticks and lead scorers go, Houser is the only certainty that the Washington men seemingly have. In order for this squad to replicate and build upon their efforts from last year, Coach Andy Powell is going to have to pair someone else with Houser.

That runner, however, may be someone who wasn't on this team last fall.

I am, of course, talking about Tyrone Gorze.

The true freshman from the state of Washington is one of six or seven rookies who we believe could find major success this fall if he immediately translates his fitness to the NCAA.

The long distance juggernaut is someone who has run 4:05 (mile), 8:04 (3k), 8:36 (3200) and 13:45 (5k) and 29:00 (10k). And yes, you're reading that last mark correctly. Gorze, as just a high schooler, ran a 10k on the track in a time of 29:00, less than 0.20 seconds from cracking a milestone collegiate barrier.

We have Gorze listed in the "Honorable Mentions" section of our preseason rankings. We sincerely believe that this rising freshman is built for the collegiate cross country realm. He was, after all, the 3rd place finisher at the NXN Championships last fall.

We're not necessarily saying that Gorze has to be an All-American this fall (although that would certainly help). But if he can replicate the best performances of Isaac Green from last year, then that will go a long way for the Huskies.

And in our eyes, that's an extremely reasonable ask for someone as talented as himself.

* * *

Truthfully, the next five men in this lineup could seemingly be in any order. There are so many runners who offer varying levels of upside, proven talent and consistency. It's a weird and unique mix of names, but together, it's hard to envision them not being competitive this fall.

Ronan McMahon-Staggs is an incoming transfer from UCLA. He recently announced his decision to join the Washington men last week. If he's eligibile to race this fall (and we think he is), then he could be the key piece who helps the Huskies build on their postseason efforts.

An outstanding breakout indoor track season last winter led to McMahon-Staggs producing numerous sub-four mile marks. He ultimately ended his winter campaign with an outstanding 3:54 PR in the event.

Last fall, McMahon-Staggs placed 15th at the Weiss-Crockett Invitational, 28th at the PAC-12 XC Championships and 21st at the West Regional XC Championships. Those results may not blow your mind, but for someone who could be a scorer on this team, those are respectable efforts.

But more importantly, this former UCLA runner was clearly more fit in the winter and the spring than he was last fall. It seems entirely fair to suggest that he'll be even better this fall than he was last year.

The only issue is that we have no idea by how much.

We then come to Sam Affolder, Joe Waskom and Leo Daschbach, a trio of returning veterans who offer differing kinds of potential.

Affolder was a fine varsity runner for the Washington men last fall. Some of his races were better than others, but placing 114th at Nuttycombe and 23rd at the PAC-12 XC Championships show promise. Having him for this season will at least give this team some decent scoring stability.

Waskom, meanwhile, didn't have his best cross country season. However, his 2021 fall campaign was noticeably better, especially when he finished 99th at the NCAA XC Championships.

We're not sure which version of Waskom we'll see this fall, especially with the World Championships taking priority for him over 1500 meters. But if he is able to return to his 2021 form, then the Huskies have a chance to be better than TSR #15.

And then there's Leo Daschbach, a former high school megastar who has dealt with some challenging injuries over the years.

Last fall wasn't a great season for Daschbach who never had any true impact on his team. However, this is someone who has finished in the top-15 at the PAC-12 XC Championships twice in his career. He is also coming off of an outdoor track season where he ran new personal bests of 14:15 (5k) and 28:51 (10k).

If that latter result translates to this fall, then Washington may have some special brewing. If Tyrone Gorze needs a year to develop, then Daschbach could still come in and return to his freshman or sophomore year form, effectively filling his role.

One other name to monitor is Thomas Diamond, a very strong distance talent from Australia. The 19-year old runner is coming to Seattle with a 7:57 (3k) personal best. However, that result is a slight outlier compared to his other 3k efforts and it was run in March of 2022.

Diamond is still a question mark for TSR as far as what his expectations should be this fall. He's clearly talented, but being able to replicate the fitness from his 3k effort over 8k and 10k on the grass is an entirely different challenge.

Regardless, he's clearly fit and could easily contribute to this team in 2023.

Other names to keep an eye on include rookies Will Schneider and Cruize Corven as well as returning sophomores James Crabtree, Evan Jenkins and Jamar Distel.

Third-year talent Nathan Green, who was a star in the middle distances this past year, also had great success on the grass as a high schooler. However, he has yet compete during a collegiate cross country season. He has also never contested an event longer than the mile during his time in the NCAA.

* * *

Last year, we listed the Washington men at TSR #7. Admittedly, that ranking hinged heavily on the idea that the Huskies' track success would translate to the grass. It also relied on numerous underclassmen playing key roles for this team.

In 2023, we're taking an identical approach to how we're ranking this team. Except this time, we're moving the Huskies to a spot that was more on par with where they were last year.

The core of what made this team competitive in 2022 is essentially gone. And with so much importance being placed on two departures (Fay and Green) throughout last fall, we have to recognize that improvements from others are simply for the goal of replacing the lost scoring.

And yet, when you do a deep dive through this roster, it feels like there are endless ways that this team could be better. Nearly every Washington runner who we could see this fall has the potential to be noticeably improved.

Of course, we still need that speculation to be validated. And until then, we thought placing this team just inside of our top-15 was a respectful nod to their history despite their losses.