TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #22 Butler Bulldogs

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

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Click here to see our "Just Missed" & "Honorable Mention" teams

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It shouldn't be a surprise that the Butler men are, once again, expected to be a nationally competitive team during the fall months. And yet, it feels like the Bulldogs continue to be unfairly overlooked.

Butler is a team that has quietly developed athletes more effectively than a handful of top programs, at least relative to expectations. They've also been the home to multiple top distance talents and usually boast respectable depth.

In 2023, the Butler men should, structurally, be no different than they were last year. Their goal, however, should be to continue their encouraging growth while countering one, admittedly challenging, scoring loss.

* * *

The first true test of Butler's 2022 cross country season came at the Joe Piane Invitational, a meet that turned out to be deeper than it had been in the past.

While in South Bend, Indiana, the Bulldogs were led by top star Barry Keane who produced a very strong 9th place finish. That low-stick result was then beautifully complemented by Jesse Hamlin who secured a 16th place finish of his own.

With Matthew Forrester placing 24th overall, the Butler men were quietly great through three runners. They had a true low-stick, a very strong secondary scorer and a stable third man. However, from there, depth was a bit of a challenge. With the final two scorers on this team placing 55th and 76th, the Bulldogs could only climb so high in the team standings.

And in the end, Butler placed 6th overall, losing a tie-breaker to Charlotte, but taking down a rising Cal Poly team. It was a strong team effort, but it felt like this group was capable of more.

The Indianapolis-based distance program later ventured to the Weiss-Crockett Invitational (also known as Pre-Nationals). There, they battled against Montana State and California Baptist, two teams that had fairly complete and balanced lineups.

Barry Keane (2nd) was excellent as expected and Jesse Hamlin (5th) continued to be a standout name. Gaps began to form after that top duo, but Matthew Forrester (21st) and Evan Byrne (26th) at least held their own. However, with the team's fifth scorer settling for 47th place, the Bulldogs had to settle for a 3rd place finish.

And in retrospect, that was a missed opportunity to earn Kolas points.

They did, however, take down an Arkansas team that was essentially locked-in to earn an automatic qualifying spot out of the South Central region.

The BIG East XC Championships was more of the same. Keane secured the win, Forrester held his own in 11th place and Hamlin had a slight "off" day for 16th place. From there, six different Butler men crossed the line between 30th and 36th place.

Sure, that was a solid team effort, but conference rivals such as Villanova, Georgetown and Providence were simply better than the Bulldogs that day.

A 4th place team finish at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships, led by a 1-2 finish from Keane and Hamlin, would ultimately end up being enough for the Butler men to advance to the national meet. And on that stage, the Bulldogs debatably had their best race of the season.

After years of numerous attempts, Barry Keane finally delivered an All-American performance on the grass with a 17th place finish. The Bulldogs also saw Jesse Hamlin produce a 119th place finish. And while that result was far from ideal, the Butler men were still able to keep the rest of their scoring group within the top-185 spots.

In turn, the BIG East program finished 21st overall at the NCAA XC Championships, capping off a solid, but not necessarily fantastic, fall campaign.

* * *

Unlike a few other teams in our rankings, it's not hard to figure out what we should expect from this group in the fall of 2023. That's because the Butler men return everyone from 2022 varsity lineup...except for one runner.

That lone departure is Barry Keane, the low-stick star who largely drove the success behind the Butler men last fall. In nearly every meet that the Bulldogs toed the line for, the Irish distance star delivered time and time again.

Without him, the complexion of this team looks noticeably different.

Naturally, many of you may be asking, "Well then how on Earth is Butler ranked at TSR #22? There's no way they should be ranked this high if they lose Keane, right?"

And in most cases, we would agree with you!

The difference, however, is that the Butler men have since added a graduate transfer in Florian Le Pallec to their 2023 roster for the upcoming fall season. The former California Baptist runner may not be the same focal star that Barry Keane was, but he's debatably going to be a top-60 runner in the NCAA this fall.

If you don't believe me, then look at his summer racing resume. Not only did he run 13:29 for 5000 meters, but he also validated that effort with a separate 13:30 mark over the same distance.

On paper, Le Pallec isn't expected to be the same low-stick star that Keane was. However, by simply adding him to Butler's lineup for this fall, the Bulldogs' scoring structure shouldn't be changing all that much.

Sure, we're not expecting this Frenchman to produce the same scoring potency that Keane once did, but his inclusion in this top-seven will negate a very heavy portion of Keane's lost value. Maybe not all of it, but certainly a nice chunk of it.

And then there's Jesse Hamlin, a name who was listed as an "Honorable Mention" name in our preseason individual cross country rankings. The rising distance standout was far from perfect last fall, but efforts at Joe Piane, the Weiss-Crockett Invitational and the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships suggest that he can be a legitimate low-stick for the Bulldogs in the fall of 2023.

Of course, Hamlin needs to be more consistent this fall than he was last year. On major stages that mattered the most (i.e. the BIG East XC Championships and the NCAA XC Championships), we didn't see the version of Hamlin that we were hoping to.

Luckily, this Butler standout has made massive improvements since then. Not only did he run 7:44 for 3000 meters this past winter, but he also earned 7th place All-American honors in that event at the indoor national meet.

Yes, it's true, Hamlin was completely absent from the 2023 outdoor track season. But to have the winter campaign that he did was outstanding. And in our eyes, it's hard to see Hamlin not being one of the better secondary cross country scorers in the NCAA later this fall...right?

* * *

Behind that duo is where we have a bit more of an open conversation.

Will Zegarski is a name who we are very high on. Despite redshirting his freshman year, this rising distance talent gave us plenty of reasons to be excited. Why is that? Well, as a true freshman, this Ohio native ran an outstanding time of 13:47 for 5000 meters. And while his consistency was a little all over the place last spring, the talent is undeniably present.

With so much upside, Zegarski is the guy who could send this Bulldog cross country team into a completely different (and better) tier. His high school resume suggests that he's at his best on the grass and his pedigree as a prep runner makes his rise as a (soon-to-be) nationally competitive name relatively unsurprising.

If this redshirt rookie ends up delivering on his exciting upside, which is admittedly not a guarantee, then Butler will be much better than TSR #22 in our team rankings.

And then there's Matthew Forrester, a key returner who ran 8:49 in the steeplechase and 13:56 over 5000 meters this past spring.

Generally speaking, Forrester was a very solid cross country scorer for the Bulldogs last fall, although some of his efforts were clearly better than others. He was great at Joe Piane, was not nearly as exciting at the Weiss-Crockett Invitational, fared well at the BIG East XC Championships and wasn't as sharp in the postseason when the racing distance moved up to 10,000 meters.

On a team that is filled with high-upside and high-potential distance standouts, we can at least rely on Forrester to provide some respectable scoring stability for Butler this fall, even if his consistency could be improved. He is another name who can also make strong improvements in 2023, but unlike a few others, we at least have a good baseline for him in terms of expectations.

Of course, we're only four names into this projected lineup. If Butler is going to have a more complete lineup this fall, then they'll need, a) someone to replicate Barry Keane's scoring role (which we've already addressed), b) less scoring gaps than last year, and c) some of their younger guys to continue making improvements.

One of those high-upside young guys to watch is David Šlapák, a Czech distance talent who has shown tremendous promise.

The overseas talent has run 3:43 for 1500 meters, 8:00 for 3000 meters and 14:17 for 5000 meters. However, maybe more importantly, this is a guy who has experience on national and world stages, specifically at the U20 World Championships and the Euro XC Championships.

Šlapák still needs to make significant improvements if he's going to be a reason why Butler improves upon their national meet success from last year. That upside, however, is hard to ignore. And based strictly on his current resume, he should be able to emerge as a respectable backend contributor.

And then there's Martin Kováčech, yet another distance talent from the Czech Republic who is also joining Butler this fall.

Admittedly, Kováčech's track resume is somewhat limited for a guy who could be a backend scorer this fall. However, this overseas runner did post a very strong steeplechase time of 8:47 back in July, giving us pause as to what the expectations should be for him in 2023.

The good news is that Kováčech has made steady progress. He has also run near his steeplechase PR multiple times, effectively validating his 8:47 mark from earlier this year.

Together, both Šlapák and Kováčech hold great potential. Of course, given their relative inexperience in the NCAA, it's hard to know what they can truly do this fall. We're not expecting these Czech distance talents to be superstars, but can they at least tighten the latter-half of Butler's scoring compared to last fall?

Be sure to also keep an eye on Jack McMahon later this fall. Admittedly, the former Davidson runner wasn't amazing last fall, but after running 13:55 for 5000 meters this past spring, one has to believe that he'll make strong contributions to this team in 2023.

* * *

When we look at the potential lineup candidates for Butler this fall, it's not hard to imagine the Bulldogs being an absolute nightmare for their opponents in a best case scenario. If everyone who we just mentioned delivers on their potential, then we could be legitimately looking at a team that is flirting with the top-10 a few months from now.

Of course, that kind of projection would require essentially everyone to deliver on their upside and to match expectations. And truthfully, that's asking for a lot.

Florian Le Pallec needs to prove that his two incredible 5k efforts can help him negate the loss of Barry Keane. Jesse Hamlin needs to show that his breakout indoor track season was no fluke and translatable to the fall months. Will Zegarski needs to lean on his track success from this past spring and not let his collegiate inexperience affect him.

Matthew Forrester is better than people realize, but will he be more consistent? David Šlapák and Martin Kováčech are talented enough to be scorers for this team, but to what extent? Jack McMahon was more of a backend piece for Butler last fall, but can his 5k PR translate to a strong fall campaign?

Trying to rank the Butler men essentially boiled down to an algorithmic-based question: What is the net benefit (or net loss) of losing Keane, adding Le Pallec, returning everyone and banking on their upside?

We can't confidently answer that, but it should give you an idea as to why we placed the Bulldogs at TSR #22 in our preseason cross country rankings.