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TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #24 Furman Paladins
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 10, 2023
- 7 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
In the fall of 2019, the Furman women finished 9th overall at the NCAA XC Championships.
And it was incredible.
That, however, was ultimately the pinnacle of the Paladins' recent rise. Since then, the women from Greenville, South Carolina have undergone a rebuild of sorts. Coach Rita Gary has aggressively recruited a handful of promising young high school stars in recent years, effectively creating an entirely new foundation built around long-term success.
Now, after a handful of key developmental years, the Furman women feel like a group that should be all grown up. And in 2023, we're about to find out if that's the case.
* * *
The 2022 cross country season was admittedly a challenging one to gauge for the Furman women. Certain meets were better than others, but each performance required context.
In their first major test of last fall, the Paladins easily took care of business at the Louisville XC Classic, handling a West Virginia team (which would qualify for the national meet) with ease. With star low-stick Bethany Graham finishing runner-up and Abigail Robertson snagging 5th place, the Furman women showcased great up-front scoring.
Jenna Mulhern (10th), Meghan Ford (11th) and Megan Marvin (16th) eventually closed out the scoring and the South Carolina-based program was able to post just 44 points. That was enough to take down the Mountaineers by 48 points.
Of course, far greater challenges (in far more competitive fields) lied ahead.
The Nuttycombe Invitational would prove to be a different animal for the Furman women. Graham (30th) still emerged as a great low-stick, but Robertson was the only other woman to crack the top-100, earning a 91st place finish. After those two, the gaps throughout the rest of Furman's lineup were admittedly concerning.
In the end, the Paladins settled for a 22nd place finish. And while that effort was far from perfect, it was also hard to ignore the fact that the Furman women were actually within striking distance of teams that placed as high as 18th (Michigan State).
If this mid-major titan was able to produce that kind of result after such a tough outing, then maybe there was still reason to be optimistic.
After a top-six sweep of the Southern Conference XC Championships, the Paladins ventured to the Southeast Regional XC Championships. There, they were faced with a deep field of top programs such as NC State, North Carolina and Virginia. Truthfully, no one was going to blame the Paladins if they were unable to beat any of those three teams.
That's why it should have come as no surprise that the Furman women settled for a 4th place team finish. They comfortably beat an underrated Duke team, but they were still a good 20+ points out from being competitive with Virginia.
Graham (5th) continued to be great, Robertson (15th) was reliable yet again, Mulhern (32nd) held her own despite being a rookie and both Marvin (41st) and Emily Little (43rd) closed out the team scoring fairly quickly.
There was potential that the Furman women would still qualify for the NCAA XC Championships despite a 4th place result at their regional meet. However, an incredibly wild Kolas scenario left the Paladins out of the national meet.
At the West Regional XC Championships, Oregon State and California Baptist tied. But since Oregon State won the tie-breaker, they were able to get in front of CBU in the final team standings. This meant that the Lancers pushed the Beavers into the national meet.
If California Baptist had won the tie-breaker instead of Oregon State, then the Lancers would have advanced to the national meet and the Furman women would have been the next (and last) team selected, not the Beavers.
* * *
At a quick glance, it may be easy for people to write off the Furman women as we venture into the fall of 2023. They weren't great at a major meet (Nuttycombe) and they didn't make it to the NCAA XC Championships.
Surely a TSR #24 ranking is too high...right?
Well, maybe, but that also depends on how you view certain results.
The West Virginia women were far from perfect last fall. They admittedly had a handful of scoring challenges within their lineup. But to be so easily trounced by Furman should have spoken to the aerobic ability of the Paladins.
It should also be noted that the Furman women didn't have their best race in Madison, Wisconsin at the Nuttycombe Invitational. And yet, despite that, Coach Rita Gary's squad was still within reasonable reach of some nationally competitive teams (points-wise).
The Southeast Regional XC Championships may not have produced any surprising results, but that meet also didn't give us a reason to dislike what Furman had done. And if the Paladins hadn't been the unlucky recipients of a brutal Kolas scenario, then would your feelings about them be different if they had been on the national stage last fall?
Make no mistake, the Furman women aren't going to be fielding a varsity lineup void of flaws. This is a team that needs greater scoring potency as well as someone to bridge the two halves of their scoring group.
Luckily, the Paladins lose only one woman from last year's team of scorers. That sole departure is Megan Ford, although she didn't even race after the Louisville XC Classic. If you're just looking at meets like Nuttycombe and the Southeast regional meet, then everyone on this team is returning -- and that's something that almost no other program can boast.
* * *
Having Bethany Graham as a true national-caliber low-stick is huge. She is the engine that makes this Furman cross country machine go. However, it's not just the fact that she's a top talent that makes her so valuable -- it's the fact that she's so darn reliable despite racing at such a competitive level.
The nice thing is that, unlike other teams, Furman doesn't have to worry about Graham delivering top results. Yes, her TFRRS profile suggests that she hasn't finished a race since a 5k effort back in December. But as far as her cross country resume is concerned, she's as solid as they come.
And then there's Abigail Robertson, a rising distance talent who was a pleasant surprise as the Paladins' secondary scorer last fall.
Much like Graham, it's the consistency and reliability of Robertson that made her so valuable. Sure, not all of her performances blew us away, but she clearly showed tons of potential and never truly struggled regardless of the stage.
The nice thing about Robertson is that, despite her role as the team's second-best scorer, she still has plenty of room to grow. A jump in her fitness would likely have a larger scoring impact than if Bethany Graham made a jump in her own fitness (i.e. the Law of Diminishing Marginal Returns).
But after those two women, things get interesting.
How good do we think Jenna Mulhern is going to be this fall? What is a reasonable expectation for this Pennsylvania native? Improved, but still the team's third scorer? On par with Robertson? Better than Robertson? A true low-stick?
Inexperience certainly played a role in how much of an impact this now-rising sophomore was going to have last fall. That, of course, is not as much of an issue for Mulhern who was very solid on the indoor oval (9:18 for 3000 meters), but clearly a bit "off" during the spring months.
Truthfully, it feels like the success of this team, if they replicate their performances from last year, is going to hinge on what Mulhern does. If she makes a jump, then this team is going to be far better than some people realize.
The best part is that even if that doesn't happen, I still don't see much downside if this former West Chester Henderson High School runner simply returns to the same form as last fall.
* * *
We feel pretty good about what the top-three of Furman's cross country squad is going to look like this fall. However, it's everyone after that trio that leaves us scratching our heads and shrugging our shoulders.
Based on last year's results from the grass, Megan Marvin (a 4:37 miler) seems to be a likely scoring option. Emily Little also cracked the Paladins' top-five last fall, but some of her races were better than others. Sierra Bower is someone who holds so much great potential, but we're still waiting for her to fully deliver on that.
Carly Wilkes was only a freshman last fall and may be primed to make the sophomore leap. Madelynne Cadeau didn't have her best cross country season ever in the fall of 2022. However, she was 29th at the 2021 Southeast Regional XC Championships and has national meet experience.
But the backend lineup options don't stop there for Furman.
Kaylie Armitage was redshirted last fall, but made steady progress on the track. Nicole Matysik is a veteran and seems due for a jump in her fitness. Camryn Wennersten is more of a middle distance runner, but a rising sophomore with a 4:43 mile PR could mean that she's the next Megan Marvin of this team.
Do any of these women have resumes that blow you away? No, maybe not, but I just listed eight women who could crack Furman's varsity lineup this fall and I wouldn't be surprised by any of them.
In fact, by a simple probability standpoint, I would imagine that at least one of these women makes significant improvements going into this fall and emerges as a high-impact scorer. And if/when that happens, the rest of this lineup doesn't need to do anything special -- they just need to close out the scoring reasonably early.
* * *
Yes, a good portion of Furman's ranking at TSR #24 relies on this group making collective improvements. In our eyes, the Paladins should simply be better with a year of competition under their belts.
Sure, none of that is guaranteed, but when we look back at last year's results, we can't really find a reason to be majorly concerned about any of their performances. And truthfully, I'm not sure we ever got a perfect understanding of just how good the Paladins were last fall.
But the last few years of development are now behind us. The foundation that Coach Rita Gary has established is now firmly set at Furman. The opportunity for growth has never been more present. The depth on this team is seemingly endless.
Now, the only thing left to do is for the Paladins to go out and execute.
