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TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #21 Michigan Wolverines
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 13, 2023
- 7 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
The Michigan men have been a hard team to dislike in recent years.
Ever since Coach Kevin Sullivan took over the distance group, the Wolverines have found greater consistency at the nationally competitive level. Their depth has been very solid and a handful of standout names have evolved into low-sticks.
Sure, some cross country seasons have been better than others for Michigan and last year left us wanting the slightest bit more. Even so, the men of Big Blue have been one of the more steady and reliable distance groups in the NCAA over the last few years -- and we don't expect that to change in 2023.
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The 2022 cross country season admittedly got off to a rocky start for the Michigan men at their first major meet of the year, the Joe Piane Invitational. There, the Wolverines would have their top scoring duo of Nick Foster and Arjun Jha place 15th and 22nd, respectively -- a strong pair of results to lead their lineup.
But from there, gaps began to form throughout the Wolverines' top-five. Oli Raimond (47th), Zach Stewart (56th) and Luke Venhuizen (77th) held their own, but as a collective group, there were too many excessive points being added. As a result, Michigan placed 8th overall, well behind the likes of Charlotte (5th), Butler (6th) and Cal Poly (7th).
There was, however, good news.
The Wolverines didn't field top scorer Tom Brady in that race. And in theory, he would have been up with both Foster and Jha. If Brady had toed the line and placed 18th overall, then after displacement, the Michigan men would have settled for 5th overall, a result that was much more on par with expectations.
However, things wouldn't get any easier at the Nuttycombe Invitational.
On the home course of their conference rival, the Wolverines produced a mixed bag of results. Jha (46th) and Brady (56) weren't necessarily amazing, but they were still plenty solid. From there, a fairly large gap began to form with Raimond (123rd) and Stewart (133rd) snagging the third and fourth scoring spots.
Jozef Meyers closed out the scoring with a 175th place finish.
The Ann Arbor-based men would go on to finish 20th in the team standings. And while it wasn't a "bad" result, it certainly left us wanting more. Of course, just like the Joe Piane Invitational, this performance required context.
Both Nick Foster (192nd) and Luke Venhuizen (201st) simply had poor races. If Foster had simply placed 40th overall, then you're looking at a 15th place finish which would have been a highly unsurprising (and fairly decent) result for the men of Big Blue.
Still, it was becoming increasingly more clear that this team needed everyone to run their best on the same day -- they couldn't afford their top scorers to have an "off" race.
Admittedly, there wasn't much to discuss when it came to the BIG 10 XC Championships or the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships. On the conference stage, the Wisconsin Badgers were simply too much for Michigan to handle, although the Wolverines did settle for a comfortable 2nd place finish. And at the regional level, Michigan took 3rd place, doing enough to advance to the national meet.
Unfortunately, the scoring inconsistency that I mentioned earlier turned out to be a major challenge for the Michigan men at the NCAA XC Championships.
Tom Brady (60th) had a respectable race, but after him, there were massive gaps that sent the Wolverines' team score skyrocketing. With no one else finishing in the top-150 and only three men in the top-220 spots, the Michigan men had to settle for a not-so-great 29th place finish.
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There's good news and bad news when it comes to this year's lineup for Michigan.
The good news is that the Wolverines are expected to return all but one man from their 2022 varsity group. They have also added an underrated transfer and a couple of very strong upper-tier distance recruits.
The bad news, however, is that Michigan's lone departure (who is out of cross country eligibility, but will still be racing on the track) was also one of their most valuable distance talents last fall. I am, of course, talking about Arjun Jha.
Losing Jha is brutal. As we saw last fall, having just one lead scorer on this team (Foster, Brady or Jha) not have a good race could crumble Michigan's overall point total. And while there is still room for the Wolverines to have success without him, their margin of error this fall will likely be fairly minimal.
And yet, contrary to what I just said, this team may actually be more stable in 2023.
With everyone else returning, Foster taking a leap in his fitness on the track (which hopefully leads to improved consistency) and key additions joining the team, the Michigan men should be a more cohesive group this fall compared to last year.
Of course, it all starts with Foster and Brady.
When it comes to Brady, we largely know what we're going to get from him. He's not quite a low-stick, but he's certainly someone who can be classified as a lead scorer. And most importantly, he's reliable. Brady has been a two-time top-80 finisher on the national stage and delivered respectable results throughout last fall.
As the veteran enters his final year of cross country eligibility, it seems fair to suggest that we already know what his ceiling is. That said, his recent personal best of 13:36 for 5000 meters this past winter was highly encouraging to see. And if he continues to build upon that kind of fitness, then maybe we'll regret saying that Brady is just a "lead scorer" and not a "low-stick".
However, the name who many of us at The Stride Report will be watching this fall is Nick Foster. After an inconsistent 2022 cross country season, the Michigan veteran became a far more refined distance talent on the track.
During the winter months, Foster ran excellent times of 3:56 (mile) and 7:53 (3k). He even qualified for the mile finals at the NCAA Indoor Championships and showed an exceptional amount of tactical refinement in his racing abilities.
That success for the indoor oval later translated to the outdoor track season where Foster continued to look like a different runner, running personal bests of 1:48 (800) and 3:38 (1500).
Foster showed us at Joe Piane last fall that he can be a legitimate lead scorer for the Wolverines during the fall months. And if he improves, he can be a true low-stick as well. However, consistency was a major issue for this Michigan standout last fall and it'll need to be remedied if Kevin Sullivan's squad is going to match (or exceed) this ranking.
And yet, at the same time, Foster looked great on the track. He looked far more poised and seemingly held greater control of his fitness. His 3k effort was also a nice result when evaluating his aerobic prowess.
It's fair to have questions about what kind of role Foster will have on this team in the coming months. But it's also fair to point to his last year of competition and suggest that he'll be a more complete cross country runner later this fall.
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When it comes to the rest of this team, it feels like you could list four to five names and have them be in any order for Michigan's lineup this fall. However, potentially the most impactful name of that group didn't even race for the Wolverines last fall.
Enter Owen MacKenzie.
The former Duke runner isn't necessarily a star, but he is very solid. Yes, he struggled at Paul Short last year, but he was also the 77th place finish at Nuttycombe and he was a top-20 finisher at the always-deep Southeast Regional XC Championships.
Michigan doesn't need MacKenzie to be a juggernaut name for them this fall. They simply need him to replicate his Nuttycombe effort from last year on a consistent basis -- or at least something close to that. Doing so would allow the Wolverines to have far more wiggle room if someone has an "off" day.
No, MacKenzie doesn't fix all of the scoring challenges that Michigan had last fall, but he at least softens the loss of Jha and gives the Wolverines one more name who they can (probably) rely on later this year.
We also feel like there is potential for both Oli Raimond and Zach Stewart to have greater scoring impacts on this team in 2023 than they did last year.
Stewart, for instance, placed 8th at the BIG 10 XC Championships last fall. He was also a top-60 finisher at the Joe Piane Invitational and, in comparison to some of his teammates, never had a truly poor performance.
It's a very similar story for Raimond who saw a bit more fluctuation in his results throughout the season than Stewart. He also struggled a bit on the national stage, but generally speaking, he was a valuable top-five scoring piece who is a great option at the fourth or fifth spot of this lineup (especially if MacKenzie steps up like we think he will).
There are plenty of other names who could absolutely make an impact on this team come October and November.
We really liked the rookie campaign of Luke Venhuizen. He was far from perfect, but it's clear that he is naturally talented and a true long distance runner. The rising sophomore should only get better now that he has a year of experience.
Jack Spamer is a veteran who ran 8:52 in the steeplechase this past spring. His cross country resume is limited, but he has the potential to put himself in Michigan's top-seven.
It feels like James Gedris is also due for a breakout season, although I'm not sure that's the first time that I've said that. The same goes for Colton Yesney.
We also can't forget about Heath McAllister (via Canada) and Nathan Lopez, two high school studs who could be instant contributors for Michigan this fall. McAllister has run 8:50 for two miles while Lopez has run 8:44 for 3200 meters.
Not only could we see both of these men inside of the Wolverines' lineup, but this rookie duo could give their team a surprise scoring boost for those who aren't aware of their resumes.
* * *
On paper, the Michigan men have all of the necessary personnel to be successful. They have multiple lead scorers, good-enough middle lineup contributors and a decent mix of youngsters and veterans.
A few of these men hold great upside as well!
The only thing that can truly limit this group is a lack of consistency from key scorers. Certain runners will simply need to be more reliable as the 2023 cross country season unfolds. In fact, Michigan doesn't even need everyone to reach new levels of fitness this fall, they just need to know what they're getting when they toe the line.
And given their recent history, as well as their returners for this fall, we wouldn't be surprised to see a more stable contingent of scorers toeing the line for Michigan come November.
