TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #4 Colorado Buffaloes

Colorado should not be ranked this high.

No team that loses so many high-octane scorers and so much depth should still be ranked in the top-five of any national list.

And yet, when we sat down to construct these rankings, we found ourselves in awe about how good the Buffaloes could be in 2022. They have added numerous national-caliber transfers, bring back a true superstar, boast sneaky-good depth and hold an underrated youngster who could be due for a breakout year.

When we stepped back and evaluated their scoring options for the upcoming fall months, we couldn't help but wonder if this Colorado team was going to be even better than they were in 2021...and that's a scary thought for any program that has to line up next to them.

* * *

Following a 7th place finish at the NCAA Winter XC Championships, a result that failed to deliver on podium expectations, the Colorado women decided to give themselves an early-season test at the Cowboy Jamboree to kick off their fall cross country season.

On the Oklahoma State cross country course, the Buffaloes toed the line against the Cowgirls in what would ultimately come down to a two-team race. In fact, no one outside of Colorado or Oklahoma State finished inside the top-10 overall spots.

Through the first four finishers, it looked like the Cowgirls were going to easily runaway with the win. The Oklahoma State women went 1-2-4, giving them an overwhelming amount of scoring potency that Colorado would need to fend off with even better depth.

And sure enough, that's exactly what happened.

Emily Covert broke up Oklahoma State's top-three with a 3rd place finish. She was eventually followed by a string of teammates such as Abby Nichols, India Johnson, Rachel McArthur, Kaitlyn Barnhill and then-freshman Hannah Miniutti who went 5-6-7-9-10, respectively.

And despite Oklahoma State's Kelsey Ramirez forcing her way into 8th place, Colorado proved to be the more complete team. In the end, the Buffaloes would score 30 points to earn the overall win, just three points better than their BIG 12 foes.

But for as impressive as that result was, many more challenges lied ahead for Colorado in much larger fields that held more than just Oklahoma State.

At Pre-Nationals, the Buffalo women toed the line against some of the more underrated teams in the country. Utah, Florida State, Ole Miss, North Carolina and Arkansas had all proven to be nationally competitive (some more than others) at varying points throughout last fall.

Utah, after all, had upset the Buffaloes in 2019 at Joe Piane and had proven to be a formidable team once again in 2021.

But Colorado had almost zero issues with the other teams in this Pre-Nationals field.

This time, it was Abby Nichols taking home a statement win while Covert offered a huge scoring spark with a 5th place finish. And with veteran India Johnson placing 9th overall, there wasn't any other program in the race that could come close to matching the scoring potency of the Buffaloes.

A 16th place finish from McArthur and a 23rd place finish from Miniutti was extremely impressive, giving Colorado a scoring-five that featured a jaw-dropping amount of firepower and outstanding depth.

The PAC-12 powerhouse walked away from Tallahassee with a score just 54 points, an incredible total of 94 points better than runner-up Utah.

With such a monumental and dominating win, the Colorado women had to be feeling good. Not only were they positioning themselves as podium favorites, but on a perfect day, they had a realistic shot at taking down the likes of NC State, New Mexico and BYU for the national title.

Fast forward to the PAC-12 XC Championships and things were going just as smooth. Nichols, Covert, Johnson and McArthur took four of the top-five spots while Miniutti closed out their scoring in 12th place.

With just 24 points, Colorado put together one of the most dominant performances of the entire season in what was (supposed to be) one of the best distance running conferences in the NCAA.

A national title, while far from a given, seemed plenty realistic for the Buffaloes.

After cruising through the Mountain region and returning to Tallahassee, the Colorado women, in theory, had a lineup that stacked up fairly well in comparison to the other powerhouses in this field.

But in theory is not always the same as in reality.

Nichols ended her phenomenal cross country season with a fantastic 8th place finish. Meanwhile, Emily Covert held her own, securing a clutch 31st place All-American result. But after those two women, the Buffaloes wouldn't have anyone else earn a top-40 honor.

McArthur finished 54th overall while India Johnson placed 58th. And with DeGenero placing 76th, there just wasn't enough All-American or top-50 scoring potency for Colorado to truly contend for the national title.

Still, the women from Boulder were able to salvage a 4th place podium finish, a result that, as unbelievable as this may sound, was maybe their "worst" race of the season.

* * *

For as good as the Colorado women were in the fall of 2021, expecting them to look anything like that in 2022 would be a mistake. This program loses an entire contingent of Buffalo veterans who made up the nucleus of scoring for this team last fall.

Abby Nichols is now gone.

Rachel McArthur is now gone.

Micaela DeGenero is now gone.

Madison Boreman is now gone.

India Johnson is...maybe gone, but probably back?

To put it simply, almost the entirety of Colorado's identity from last fall has just vanished.

Trying to go through and explain how much value each of these now-departed distance stars gave the Buffaloes last fall would lead to a never-ending article. All you need to know is that all of those women were good. Really good.

Of course, Coach Mark Wetmore and his coaching staff didn't just sit back and let their elite scoring potency dwindle away with no backup plan.

Instead, they went to the transfer portal.

Enter Bailey Hertenstein, the former Indiana superstar who is a multi-time All-American on the grass and an excellent runner on the track. Our TSR #18 runner earned a 2nd place finish at the BIG 10 Winter XC Championships before going to NCAA Winter XC Championships and throwing down a huge 28th place All-American finish.

Before that, in 2019, she placed 31st at the national meet.

The 4:35 miler, who has also run 15:38 for 5000 meters, is a massive addition. She is almost as close as you can get to being a guaranteed low-stick and there's still room for her, in our eyes, to improve her scoring value on the national stage.

As far as talent is concerned, it's hard to compare Hertenstein to any of the women who have since left this program. She's not necessarily at Nichols' level, but she's probably capable of offering better scoring prowess than McArthur, DeGenero and Johnson did, at least on the grass.

Of course, Hertenstein alone can't fill all of the gaps in this lineup.

And Colorado knew that.

If you are strictly a Division One reader, then allow us to introduce you to Ella Baran, one of the fastest distance runners that the Division Three scene has ever seen.

The former Johns Hopkins runner, who is going Colorado as a graduate transfer, had a huge breakout year on the indoor and outdoor ovals this past winter and spring. With times of 4:40 (mile), 9:13 (3k) and 15:49 (5k), Baran has the chance to be a high-impact scorer for the Buffaloes in the coming months.

Of course, trying to figure out how her D3 credentials will translate to the D1 level is admittedly a challenge. Baran has very clearly been at her best on the track, but her times also indicate that she could at least be a top-70 runner at the national meet come November.

After all, this is someone who finished 9th at the D3 cross country national meet last year.

And if Baran's momentum follows her to Boulder, then maybe she could even be a top-50 runner when the season is over.

Regardless, this former Blue Jay ace will be one of two key x-factors on Colorado's roster. This team's success will likely hinge on how she performs this season.

* * *

We then have Emily Covert, another superstar much like Hertenstein who is arguably better, yet still has greater national meet potential.

There is no question that Covert, on paper, is one of the 10-best women's distance runners in the country this fall. Placing 3rd at the Cowboy Jamboree, 5th at Pre-Nationals and 2nd at the PAC-12 XC Championships was enough to put Covert at TSR #7 in our preseason individual rankings.

The fact that her 31st place All-American finish was arguably the "worst" result of her 2021 fall cross country season is beyond impressive. In our eyes, she could still offer at least 15 less points for Colorado at this year's national meet.

Between Covert and Hertenstein, we feel confident that the Colorado women have two bonafide stars. Their scoring potency should give the Buffaloes a massive edge in whatever field they are in and Baran should be able to offer promising stability in the middle portion of this lineup.

However, the second x-factor on this team who we will be monitoring is Hannah Miniutti.

The rising sophomore had an excellent year as a true freshman on the grass. Placing 10th at the Cowboy Jamboree, 23rd at Pre-Nationals, 12th at the PAC-12 XC Championships and 85th at the national meet was huge for a rookie.

Miniutti later went on to run 16:08 (5k) and 33:49 (10k) on the outdoor oval, promising times which show sustained success across seasons.

We have Miniutii listed as an "Honorable Mention" in our preseason individual rankings. However, depending on how much stock you want to put into youth-driven upside, one could argue that this still-young Colorado ace could have made it into our top-50.

If this Georgia native can build on her success from last year, then she (and her team) could be extremely dangerous this fall. And even if she doesn't, then she still offers excellent scoring support and depth.

Watch out for this sophomore.

Transitioning from underclassmen to veterans, let's also be sure to keep an eye on the performances that we see out of Gabrielle "Elle" Orie this fall.

The former Cornell runner came to Colorado as a graduate transfer a few seasons back and has quietly done very well ever since donning a black and gold singlet. This past spring, Orie ran 16:07 (5k) and 10:03 (steeple), the latter mark being good enough to send her to the outdoor national meet.

The recent surge in Orie's times is extremely encouraging. Let's not forget, this is someone who placed 90th at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships. If she's notably better now than she was three years ago, then what does that mean for her 2022 cross country campaign?

We don't know the answer to that question, but we have to think that Colorado is optimistic about Orie's chances of being a scorer this fall.

And how about India Johnson, the former Michigan State runner?

When we reached out to Colorado asking for eligibility, we were told that last year's TFRRS results were accurate. In those results, Johnson was listed as a senior. Therefore, we left her out of our preseason individual rankings.

But Colorado has since released their 2022 roster and sure enough, Johnson is listed there.

If Johnson is, in fact, coming back (and we do trust their roster), then that is a massive development for the Buffaloes.

Last fall, Johnson placed 58th at the NCAA XC Championships. That, however, was probably her least impressive result that she posted last fall and during the winter cross country season.

Not only did this NCAA veteran finish 6th at the Cowboy Jamboree, 9th at Pre-Nationals and 4th at the PAC-12 XC Championships, but she also finished 4th at the BIG 10 Winter XC Championships and 35th at the NCAA Winter XC Championships.

That is a STACKED resume.

In pretty much every cross country race that Johnson toed the line for last winter and fall, she was a top-40 runner in the NCAA. If she is racing this cross country season, then it would be more surprising if she wasn't an All-American than if she was.

Be sure to also keep an eye on women like Kaitlyn Barnhill, Annie Hill and Elizabeth Constien. Those three runners have all shown some encouraging signs in terms of development. One of them could be due for a breakout season and at a bare minimum, they could all offer excellent depth.

* * *

Having high school megastar and 4:11 (1500) runner Addy Wiley decommit and venture to Huntington University just the other week was admittedly a tough blow for the long-term hopes and goals of this Colorado roster.

Still, this year's team is absolutely incredible. They have so much firepower and far greater depth than some people realize. There are, however, a few (very minor) aspects of this team that we need to be cautious about.

We have no idea how Ella Baran will translate her D3 success to the D1 level.

We don't know if Gabrielle Orie will effectively translate her track success to the grass.

There's no guarantee that Hannah Miniutti will make the freshman-to-sophomore jump.

It also wasn't great that Covert and Johnson had their "worst" races of the 2021 fall cross country season at the national meet (even though they were still pretty darn good).

But if those are the biggest concerns that we have for this team, then we feel comfortable about placing the Buffaloes at TSR #4 in our preseason individual rankings.

And frankly, this the last program in the NCAA that I would ever want to doubt.