TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #5 Colorado Buffaloes

Death, taxes and the Colorado men being one of the best teams in the country.

There's not a whole lot of flashiness when it comes to this year's Colorado men's squad. As far as our preseason individual rankings are concerned, they don't have anyone in a top-40 spot and their recent recruiting classes, while talented and promising, don't necessarily hold instant-impact names like Stanford and Northern Arizona do.

But Coach Mark Wetmore and the Colorado coaching staff have seemingly never been concerned about anything other than what is in front of them. The blue collar program has leaned on depth throughout its historical dominance and that won't be any different in 2022.

With a roster that is loaded with numerous graduate transfer stars and one massive x-factor, the Buffaloes will once again be aiming for a podium spot three months from now.

* * *

After an admittedly disappointing end to their winter cross country season, one that saw the Buffaloes finish 14th at the NCAA Winter XC Championships, the PAC-12 powerhouse ventured to the fall months with a revamped roster and a fresh mindset.

Colorado's first challenge of their season came at the Cowboy Jamboree, a top-heavy invitational hosted on Oklahoma State's course in Stillwater, Oklahoma. There, the Buffaloes would face fellow juggernaut programs such as Northern Arizona, Oklahoma State, Texas and Tulsa.

Superstar veteran Eduardo Herrera secured a clutch runner-up result to give the Buffaloes a scoring edge that matched the other top teams in the field. He was followed by Notre Dame graduate transfer Brendan Fraser who placed 8th (in one of the best races of his career) as well as Mississippi State graduate transfer Stephen Jones who placed 12th.

But with Georgia Tech graduate transfer Andrew Kent placing 20th and Western Colorado graduate transfer Charlie Sweeney placing 23rd, the Buffalo men just didn't have enough scoring potency to match the Lumberjacks.

NAU would go on to win the meet with 40 points, but Colorado actually tied with Oklahoma State at 62 points. But unfortunately for the Boulder-based men, the Cowboys got the tie-breaking edge.

Still, this was a solid start to the season. There was clearly room for this team to improve and matching the Oklahoma State men point for point was extremely encouraging to see.

Pre-Nationals would be the next stop on Colorado's resume. And not only would they lose to Northern Arizona once more, but they would also tie for the runner-up spot again!

This time, however, they got the edge.

Herrera did his thing and landed a 7th place finish, a result that was hardly surprising given his caliber of talent. Behind him, he was flanked by Brendan Fraser (23rd) and Austin Vancil (24th), two men who put together a solid string of middle lineup finishes.

And with the fourth, fifth and sixth Colorado runners crossing the line in 36th (Kent), 38th (Sweeney), and 40th (Jones), the Buffaloes were able to close out their scoring just in time to hold off the Arkansas men who settled for 3rd place after the tie-breaker.

On paper, Colorado didn't have the most exciting firepower, but their depth was flat-out incredible. Herrera was a great low-stick, Fraser and Vancil posted two highly underrated results and the Buffaloes' supporting cast was phenomenal.

But how would this lineup structure translate to the postseason? How would this lineup fare against regional rivals who held top-five scoring structures that were significantly different than what Colorado had?

Well, as it turns out, the Buffaloes' lineup would hold up fairly well at their conference meet.

In what was an overwhelmingly dominant display of combined depth and firepower, Colorado didn't just win the PAC-12 title, they took it home convincingly.

The combination of Herrera, Vancil, Kent, Sweeney, Fraser, Jones and Hornecker went 3-6-7-11-12-13-17, respectively, in the overall results. And on a day where Colorado was just better than their competition, they took home team gold with 32 points, a score that was 13 points better than Stanford, a favorite for the national meet podium.

After a monumental victory and a comfortable national qualification out of the Mountain region, all eyes were on the Colorado men to emerge as a podium team in Tallahassee. Their lineup structure and their PAC-12 dominance, in theory, favored a top-four finish on the national stage.

Unfortunately for Colorado, a podium finish never came to fruition.

Herrera's 24th place finish was excellent, especially since he had struggled to earn All-American honors in past national meets, but he was closer to a top-10 or top-15 runner in the country.

Andrew Kent, however, put together a promising 45th place finish of his own, showing the country that he was peaking for the postseason better than anyone else on his team.

The rest of Colorado's scoring five did well, but they didn't flex the same All-American talent or top-50 potential that they had displayed at the PAC-12 XC Championships. Jones placed 62nd, Vancil placed 70th and Fraser closed out the scoring in 85th place.

While all five scorers did finish in the top-90 spots of the national meet, the Buffaloes had only one All-American and a total of two men in the top-50 overall spots. With limited firepower, Colorado had to settle for an 8th place team finish.

* * *

As we enter the fall of 2022, what was true about Colorado last year is still true about Colorado this year: They might be the single deepest cross country team in the country. Or at the very least, they have the most interchangeable lineup in the NCAA.

But the similarities are also true for the Buffaloes' firepower. The Colorado men were limited, at times, in terms of low-stick scoring behind Herrera. And after losing their superstar talent to expired eligibility, that firepower is going to be even more limited in 2022.

Herrera was a true star last year. He was a consistent front-runner at the top of the Buffaloes' lineup who gave this depth-laden team a legitimate edge. Not having him return in 2022 theoretically limits this team's upside going in the months of September, October and November.

Or, to be more straightforward, Colorado just lost a lot of scoring. Plain and simple.

The Buffaloes aren't expected to return Stephen Jones, either, a quality backend scorer throughout the entirety of last fall. And while Jones' departure isn't ideal either, this Colorado roster is still deep enough where they should be able to find an adequate replacement for him in the coming months.

It's a similar story for seventh man Alec Hornecker who was previously in an All-American in past cross country seasons.

So...who does Colorado return?

* * *

The theme of Colorado's 2022 cross country team is tons of depth and an unknown amount of firepower depending on what your definition of "firepower" is.

The Buffaloes don't have single man listed in the top-40 of our preseason individual rankings. They do, however, have two guys listed in our top-50, one man listed in our "Just Missed" section and one runner listed as an "Honorable Mention".

Andrew Kent is our highest ranked Colorado runner in our preseason individual rankings at TSR #43. The former Georgia Tech standout joined the Buffaloes last year, bringing with him a resume that was good, but not yet great.

That, however, all changed in the last academic calendar.

Kent started his 2021 fall cross country season slowly by placing 20th at the Cowboy Jamboree and then 36th at Pre-Nationals, But then his momentum began to build.

The graduate transfer notched a huge 7th place finish at the PAC-12 XC Championships and was just five spots out from All-American honors at the national meet (placing 45th).

But if two top-end finishes on the grass don't excite you, then maybe his track times will. Kent was beyond incredible on the oval, running outstanding times of 13:28 (5k) and 28:15 (10k).

The collegiate veteran could be so much better than TSR #43 by season's end. In fact, that individual ranking is probably closer to his floor than his ceiling. Of course, the big unknown with Kent is that we don't exactly know how much better he'll be on the grass later this fall.

But if he can be anything like Herrera was in 2021, then that would be huge.

Austin Vancil, who sits at TSR #44, may be one of the 10 most underappreciated distance runners in the nation right now. As an underclassman, the rising Buffalo star never had a poor race, finishing 24th at Pre-Nationals, 6th at the PAC-12 XC Championships and 70th at the national meet.

Certain races of Vancil's could have been slightly better, but it's clear that this fourth-year junior exudes firepower that he hasn't fully delivered on the grass. And that's not just speculation, either. Vancil did, after all, throw down excellent times of 7:55 (3k), 13:49 (5k) and 28:16 (10k) earlier this year.

Like Kent, we believe that Vancil can be a fringe All-American ace, and maybe even better than that. Of course, we just need to see it first before we make any major declarations about the future prospects of this Colorado team.

Let's now move to Brendan Fraser, a former Notre Dame runner who ventured to Colorado as a graduate transfer. While Fraser had modest success with the Irish, he became one of the most valuable lineup scorers that the Buffaloes had throughout last fall.

Outside of Herrera, Fraser may have been the most reliable scorer on Colorado's cross country squad last fall. He had an incredible 8th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree, secured a 23rd place result at Pre-Nationals, finished 12th at the PAC-12 XC Championships and was 85th at the national meet.

We listed Fraser in the "Just Missed" section of our preseason individual cross country rankings, but there was a very real argument that he should have cracked our top-50.

And while we do believe that he's going to be the Buffaloes' most reliable scorer yet again, it's his ceiling for a top-40 or top-50 finish at this year's national meet that could truly dictate if this is a podium team.

Charlie Sweeney is the last big-name returner who we need to highlight. The former Division Two star from Western Colorado showed markable improvements throughout last fall. Some of his races were better than others, but the opportunity to be one of the best fourth or fifth scorers in the nation later this fall is very much there.

Sweeney had an up-and-down fall season. Placing 23rd at the Cowboy Jamboree and 124th at the national meet weren't bad performances, but they certainly could have been better. However, seeing Sweeney place 38th at Pre-Nationals and 11th at the PAC-12 XC Championships was far more encouraging.

And if you weren't sure how to feel about Sweeney's fluctuating results on the grass, then you should also know that he went on to run 13:37 (5k) and 28:33 (10k) later in the year.

Much like Kent, Vancil and Fraser, what we've seen from Sweeney, on paper, absolutely suggests that he can be an All-American. Whether or not that actually happens is an entirely different story.

* * *

The four men we just highlighted are all returners from last year.

Three of those four men also happen to be graduate transfers from different schools.

But in 2022, this projected lineup will feature four men who are graduate transfers, not three.

That's because Wisconsin veteran Seth Hirsch will be finishing his eligibility with the Buffaloes later this fall -- and that's an exciting development for a team that likely has podium expectations.

Hirsch was a high school superstar who, truthfully, had a somewhat slow start to his college career. However, over the last few seasons, the former Badger runner began posting some fairly respectable finishes and marks.

Last fall, the Wisconsin standout placed 13th at the BIG 10 XC Championships and 84th at the NCAA XC Championships, one spot ahead of current teammate Brendan Fraser. Last fall was, without question, the best overall cross country season of Hirsch's career.

But we should note that Hirsch actually finished higher at the 2021 NCAA Winter XC Championships where he earned a fantastic 58th place finish. And when you pair that result with recent personal bests of 7:59 (3k), 13:47 (5k) and 28:49 (10k), one has to think that an All-American honor is within Hirsch's reach this fall.

However, what if I told you that there is a man on this Colorado roster who may end up being this team's best runner in 2022? What if I told you that he wasn't a graduate transfer and that he was actually better than Herrera was at certain points during a past cross country season?

In this case, I am talking about Kashon Harrison, the 2019 freshman phenom who was beyond incredible during his first season of collegiate competition. In his first year with the program, Harrison placed 11th at Pre-Nationals and 7th at the PAC-12 XC Championships. He later placed 90th at the national meet.

At his best, Harrison was a top-30 name in the country in the fall of 2019.

However, an injury and extended absences, some of which are for unknown reasons, have kept Harrison off of the starting line for cross country. His performances on the track have been limited and admittedly nothing spectacular.

But after such a long time since his last race on the grass, one has to wonder, "Is this the season where Kashon Harrison returns? And if he does, how will he perform?" Those are fair questions to ask and truthfully, we don't know the answers. But if Harrison does, by some chance, return to the starting line this fall and is firing on all cylinders, then this team may as well be a lock for the podium.

As for the rest of this roster, there are numerous men who could easily crack this top-seven.

Who those men will be?

Well, I'm not even sure if Colorado knows.

The Buffaloes brought in a huge and highly accomplished distance-centric recruiting class last year. Trying to analyze that group would be an exhausting effort, so here is a link to a past recruit rankings article.

Be sure to also keep an eye on Jace Aschbrenner, a rising collegiate veteran formerly from Newbury Park High School. He has run 7:56 (3k) and 13:52 (5k) on the track. When it comes to the grass, he could be due for a break out.

Hunter Appleton, Paxton Smith and Noah Hibbard are also underrated talents as well.

* * *

Trying to analyze this Colorado team is fairly simple. We know that they'll be good and we know that they're deep. Most of these men are extremely experienced and they don't have much downside, if any.

There's also a good chance that someone breaks through and becomes an All-American this fall. In fact, there are probably five to six men on this roster who could realistically be All-Americans by end of this cross country season.

But there is no guarantee that any of those men will actually deliver on that All-American potential. And even if two or three men do crack the top-40, then how many close to a top-30 finish will they realistically get?

And while Kashon Harrison is a nice name to consider for this year's lineup, not actually knowing his status for this fall makes it impossible to properly factor him into Colorado's ranking.

But if each of these men improve only in the slightest bit, then their collective progress as a whole could put Colorado onto the podium without much of an issue. And with a high floor that could limit excessive scoring, the Buffaloes can only go upwards in the eyes of The Stride Report.

Now the only question is...by how much?