TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #4 BYU Cougars

And here we are, ladies and gentlemen. The first team in The Stride Report's preseason cross country rankings that sits in a podium spot.

Armed with one of the best scoring trios of the country, the BYU men will likely capitalize on their elite firepower by producing a strong supporting cast like they seemingly do every year.

And while it would usually be concerning to not know exactly what the second-half of a team's lineup is going to look like, we don't have that same sense urgency for BYU. Coach Ed Eyestone's history of producing overwhelming depth has left us largely unfazed about BYU's backend uncertainty this fall.

But let's not confuse uncertainty with a lack of talent.

Because as most of us know, BYU has plenty of that.

* * *

After a fine, but less-than-ideal end to their winter cross country season, where the Cougars placed 7th at the national meet, BYU entered the fall months with renewed optimism and similar firepower.

The men from Provo, Utah would truly start their 2021 fall season at the Roy Griak Invite in Minnesota, an early test against some highly respectable programs. Teams such as Iowa State, Michigan State and Minnesota would take aim at the Cougars, looking to measure themselves against the distance running powerhouse.

But through four runners, no one in this field could touch BYU. Conner Mantz secured a clutch individual victory while fellow superstar Casey Clinger finished 4th. And with Aidan Troutner and Brandon Garnica placing 6th and 7th, not even Iowa State could match the Cougars' scoring potency despite the Cyclones putting four men in the top-10 as well.

However, BYU's fifth man, Lucas Bons, did falter to a still-strong 16th place finish. Iowa State's fifth runner, Ezekiel Rop, was five spots ahead in 11th place. Although the BYU men had a better top-four, the Cyclones weren't completely out of contention with their fifth man closing out their scoring so quickly.

Still, BYU came out with a one-point victory over an Iowa State team that would prove to be much better throughout the 2021 fall season than some people expected them to be.

And while the latter-half of the Cougars' lineup could have been better, there was still a lot to be happy about for the BYU men.

The next test for Coach Eyestone's squad would come at Pre-Nationals, a much larger field that was significantly more top-heavy than what the Roy Griak Invitational offered. And while BYU would hold their own, fellow juggernaut distance programs would prove to be just as good.

Mantz unsurprisingly secured a victory and Clinger was fantastic once again, this time earning a clutch 8th place finish. But those results, for as good as they were, weren't super surprising. It was the second-half of this scoring group that would ultimately determine BYU's success.

Brandon Garnica continued to prove that he belonged in the "low-stick" conversation by earning a very underrated 19th place finish, giving BYU three men in the top-20. However, from there, gaps began to form.

Lucas Bons held his own with a 35th place finish, and that was on par with a few of the other fourth scorers in this field. But with the Cougars fifth man placing 68th overall, that backend vulnerability proved to be too much for BYU.

Unsurprisingly, Northern Arizona took home the team title. But after the Lumberjacks, things got tight as far as scoring was concerned.

The Colorado men and Arkansas men simply had too much scoring support for BYU to keep pace with. While the Buffaloes and the Razorbacks tied at 128 points, it was the Cougars who were three points away, settling for a very narrow 4th place team finish.

For the most part, it was hard to be too upset about that result. Yes, teams like Colorado and Arkansas were beatable opponents, but it's not like either of those programs blew the BYU men out of the water. The Cougars still had a lethal scoring trio and a very solid scorer at the fourth position of their lineup.

While their backend gaps would need to improve, the idea of a podium finish in November was still very much there.

After cruising through their conference and regional meets, BYU prepared themselves for the national stage. We knew that they had some of the best firepower in the country, but would their supporting cast be good enough to put them on the podium?

Unfortunately for BYU, the answer to that question was, "No."

Like clockwork, Mantz took home individual gold while Clinger placed 8th. No team at the national meet had a better 1-2 scoring punch than the Cougars did.

But with Garnica placing 54th overall, the scoring potency that the BYU men needed to earn a podium finish simply wasn't there. And with their final two scorers placing 102nd and 118th in the final results, there was only so much that Mantz and Clinger could do.

When the points were tallied, BYU settled for a relatively modest 7th place finish, just three points ahead of Colorado and nine points behind Tulsa. It was also the same exact finish that the Cougars had earned at the winter cross country national meet just eight months prior.

* * *

It's hard to believe that BYU's 2021 fall cross country season was arguably their "worst" fall campaign of the last few years. After all, this is a group that still took down the eventual national meet runner-up finishers in Iowa State and ultimately placed 7th in Tallahassee.

Let's also not forget, they had two men in the top-10 at the NCAA XC Championships, including the individual national title winner!

So if that was a "down year" for BYU, then one has to think that a podium finish is more than a fair projection for the Cougars going into the 2022 season.

Of course, for some people, that may be hard to imagine. After all, this team does lose the single-best cross country runner in the nation.

The departure of Conner Mantz, at first glance, is devastating. Firepower was essentially what got BYU through the fall of 2021. Removing Mantz from BYU's 2022 roster theoretically compounds their issues at the backend of their cross counry lineup.

Of course, we wouldn't rank BYU at TSR #4 without good reason.

And that reason comes in the form of Christian Allen.

The former Weber State superstar is finishing his eligibility with the Cougars as a graduate transfer this fall. Since the fall of 2019, Allen has evolved into a truly elite name and one of the best national meet performers in the country.

After an extremely modest 2019 regular season, Allen stunned the nation with a monster 14th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships. But with the rise of the pandemic, as well as becoming a husband and a father, Allen was relatively quiet, leaving us to wonder if his 2019 national meet performance was just a fluke.

Spoiler: It wasn't.

Last fall, Allen placed 6th at Joe Piane, 32nd at Pre-Nationals, 3rd at the BIG Sky XC Championships and then 16th at the NCAA XC Championships. Not only that, but he went on to run 13:36 (5k) and 28:26 (10k) on the indoor and outdoor ovals, respectively.

Over the past year, Allen has validated his breakout 2019 national meet performance in an unbelievable way. He has firmly established himself as a true star across all three seasons and he has proven on more than one occasion that his best performances often come on the national stage.

Is Allen expected to be as good as Mantz was last year?

No, likely not, but he doesn't have to be. If Allen was donning a BYU singlet at last fall's national meet, then the difference between him and Mantz would have only been 13 points.

And when it comes to damage control, you can't do much better than that.

Of course, Allen may not even be the best runner on his team in 2022. That's because Casey Clinger is back for another year after proving to be one of the more reliable low-sticks in the country last year.

Cinger's string of elite results, including a top-10 finish at the national meet, should make him the perfect complement next to Allen.

But frankly, that's as far as our analysis goes. While Clinger did have a fantastic outdoor track season, running 13:23 (5k) and 28:16 (10k), any improvements that we could see from him on the grass this fall would be marginal.

Instead, the real x-factor of this team is Brandon Garnica.

The BYU veteran, who is currently ranked at TSR #38 in our preseason individual rankings, is clearly one of the more talented distance runners in the nation. Finishing 7th at Roy Griak and 19th at Pre-Nationals last fall puts him in the true front-runner conversation, as do personal bests 13:26 (5k) and 28:19 (10k).

There is no denying that Garnica is an exceptional distance talent. However, he has yet to deliver an All-American honor that he is very clearly capable of producing.

Garnica did not make BYU's national meet lineup in 2018, finished 42nd at the national meet in 2019, was a DNF at the winter cross country national meet and then finished 54th at the fall cross country national meet.

To be clear, none of those results (where he actually finished the race) are bad. In fact, most teams would be thrilled to have someone like Garnica as their true front-runner.

But in order for BYU to make the podium this fall, Garnica needs to be in the top-40 of the national meet results (at a bare minimum). Ideally, he'll be in the top-30.

* * *

Now for the rest of this team.

Lucas Bons is hard to dislike. After a monumental breakout year on the track during the 2021 winter and spring seasons, this up-and-comer proved to be a sneaky-good cross country scorer as well.

The 3:55 miler has also run 3:37 for 1500 meters and 7:55 for 3000 meters. On the grass, Bons was 16th at Roy Griak and then 35th at Pre-Nationals, results that are inline with other top-tier fourth scorers in the country.

However, a 102nd place finish at last fall's national meet, while far from bad, isn't going to be enough for BYU to get on the podium. In order for BYU to crack the top-four, Bons will need to be closer to the top-70 or top-80 in Stillwater, Oklahoma three months from now.

The good news is that his track times and past performances on the grass suggest that he can at least reach that point. But much like Garnica, we still need to see if that actually happens.

And then there is Aidan Troutner who is in a somewhat similar boat.

Troutner has made slow but steady improvements over the last few seasons of competition. Finishing 6th at Roy Griak was extremely encouraging and placing 68th at Pre-Nationals was a fine result as well.

However, the national meet results that we have seen from Troutner over the last year haven't been great. At the winter and fall national meets, the BYU runner finished 125th and 175th, respectively.

There is very clearly a ton of untapped potential that Troutner has not yet put on full display. A few of his performances on the track and his regular season results on the grass are promising, but a top-100 result at the national meet needs to be the bare minimum for him in 2022.

Based strictly on returners from last year's national meet, both Bons and Troutner are going to be in BYU's top-five later this fall. However, the Cougars have plenty of men other than their national meet returners who could have key scoring roles in the coming months.

Take, for instance, Kenneth Rooks.

The steeplechase superstar was flat-out incredible this past spring, running 8:22 in the steeplechase and showing off tremendous consistency throughout the season. Rooks ended his outdoor track campaign with a 6th place All-American finish at the national meet.

At a bare minimum, Rooks should be a top-five scorer for BYU this fall. His steeplechase PR also suggests that he has All-American potential.

The only problem, however, is that Rooks doesn't appear to have any cross country results on his resume. As far as his collegiate career on the grass goes, it's virtually nonexistent.

Rooks has given us every reason to believe that he can be a major impact scorer for the BYU men in 2022. His outdoor campaign was simply too good for him to not have a role in this lineup.

But without knowing exactly what we're going to get from him over these next few months, saying with absolute certainty that he puts BYU higher than TSR #4 feels challenging.

Another breakout BYU runner on the track this past year was Joey Nokes, an outstanding distance-centric talent who thrived in the 5k and the 10k this spring. With recent personal bests of 13:55 (5k) and 28:37 (10k), Nokes has become one of the NCAA's more pleasant surprises.

Nokes did toe the line for a few cross country races last fall, but his impact was minimal. He wouldn't truly find his groove until he reached the outdoor oval.

It seems fair to say that Nokes is a completely different runner now than he was this time last year. Of course, much like Rooks, trying to figure out how Nokes' newest personal bests on the track will translate to the grass is a guessing game that I don't think anyone can win in the month of September.

As for the rest of this squad, the youngsters on this team could end up playing a key role later this fall. Incoming freshman Isaac Teeples was maybe the most underrated recruiting pickup from the Class of 2022. In fact, Coach Eyestone has even said that Teeples, "has the chance to impact [his] 2022 team."

The Washington native has run 1:52 (800), 4:05 (mile), 8:55 (3200) and 14:23 (5k XC). Teeples also finished 10th at the Garmin RunningLane XC National Championships last fall, giving us even more reason to believe that he could be a top-seven contributor, or even a top-five scorer, for the Cougars this fall.

Other names like Davin and Creed Thompson, both from the Class of 2021, were high school standouts as well. Davin, in fact, already made appearances in BYU's lineup last fall. He also ran 8:57 (steeple) and 29:03 (10k) this past spring.

* * *

Everything about this year's BYU team suggests that they'll be just as good, and likely even better, than they were in the fall of 2021.

The introduction of Christian Allen almost entirely nullifies the loss of Conner Mantz.

Casey Clinger is an extremely reliable low-stick.

Brandon Garnica is majorly overdue for an All-American performance.

Both Rooks and Nokes could be major breakout stars later this fall.

Bons and Troutner, at the very least, add excellent supporting depth.

There are also a ton of youngsters who could shine with their high-upside talent.

There are a lot more things that can go right with this team than can go wrong. And truthfully, the only reason why BYU isn't ranked higher is because we simply believe that the next three teams in our rankings are just better.

But by the time we reach November, it wouldn't at all surprise us if the Cougars end up being better than TSR #4 in our cross country rankings.