Three Sentences Or Less: 2023 Nike Outdoor National Championship Preview

Written by Donald Speas, additional commentary and edits via Garrett Zatlin

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Surprise! While we wrap up a few other pieces of content on the collegiate side, our always-ambitious high school specialist Donny was able to put together a monster, distance-based meet preview for this year's Nike Outdoor National Championships!

Below, we highlighted and analyzed five key names in each of the boy's and girl's distance races. Unfortunately, we couldn't possibly cover everyone, but you will still find plenty of in-depth detail on the top names in each of these fields!

Let's begin...

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NOTE: This article was crafted prior to performances that have taken place at separate national meets around the country.

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Girl's Distance Fields

800 Meters

Madison Shults (CO)

Madison Shults comes into this race sporting a 2:04.28 PR over 800 meters, the fastest of anyone in this field. She also holds great versatility thanks to her 55.76-second performance for 400 meters and a 17:11.50 PR for 5000 meters on the grass. It will be very hard for anyone to drop Shults in this race and even harder to out-sprint her.

Tessa Buswell (CA)

Tessa Buswell has a ton of momentum right now. She finished 4th at the California State Championships in the 800 meters (higher than anyone else entered at this meet) while matching her 2:08 PR and just ran a mile PR of 4:51.11 at the HOKA Festival of Miles meet. If Buswell can keep this hot streak going, then she may have an outside shot at the national title in this event.

Amelia Everett (MA)

Amelia Everett has proven that she has a solid understanding of how to tactically handle championship stages, finishing on the podium at high-caliber meets such as New Balance Indoor Nationals and last year's rendition of Nike Outdoor Nationals. She may not have run as fast as she has in prior seasons, but you can certainly never count her out due to her “clutch gene”.

Georgia Jeanneret (CA)

This California junior really hit her stride this spring, earning personal bests in each event that she attempted, as well as playing key roles on her school's relays. Georgia Jeanneret enters this field as somewhat of a high-upside wild card. Regardless, she definitely knows how to win, having picked up victories at the APU Meet of Champions and the Sound Running HS Invite earlier in the year

Calia Lyons (TX)

Calia Lyons is one of the younger athletes in this field, but by no means inexperienced, especially on the national stage. During last year’s rendition of this meet, the Texas native contested three events (the 400 meters, 800 meters and the mile) and set personal bests in all three races! This season, she has elected to cut the mile and put all of her chips on the shorter distances. The combination of her high potential, experience at this meet and fresher legs will make her a very strong competitor come Saturday afternoon.

Mile

Gioana Lopizzo (CA)

This isn’t Gioana Lopizzo’s first time at Nike Outdoor Nationals, having placed 3rd as a member of her school's 4x1600 meter relay last year. The California runner has been sneaky-good in every meet that she has contested this year, but never quite broke the tape when it matters the most. With outstanding personal bests of 9:59.08 (3200) and ran 4:47.76 (mile) this spring, there’s a small (but not impossible) chance that we see Lopizzo change her perennial runner-up narrative.

Allura Markow (CA)

There’s not much to dislike about Allura Markow who has a well-rounded resume, has thrived in past experiences on the national stage, and perhaps most importantly, she holds the top seed time in this year’s championship mile race (4:44.56). If this University of Oregon signee can make this race an honest one straight from the gun, then don’t be surprised if she comes home with the national title.

Landen LeBlond (AZ)

The 2023 outdoor track season has been an epic one for Landen LeBlond as she has set new personal bests in all of her individual events, highlighted by a huge mile PR of 4:44.60. The only knock against LeBlond is that she has never competed at a national meet before. In other words, this Arizona native will be balancing her incredible raw fitness and her inexperience later this weekend.

Chloe Huyler (NV)

Chloe Huyler could have just cruised to her pair NIAA 1A state titles, but she instead set new personal bests. The Nevada native has reset her 1600 meter PR in her last three attempts at that distance and we don’t see a reason why her 4:51.84 PR should survive this weekend, especially after coming down from elevation. This will be Huyler's first national meet and it is by far the highest quality meet that she has ever competed in, giving this sophomore a great opportunity to gain valuable long-term experience.

Elizabeth Leachman (TX)

A true freshman with a clutch gene...what’s more interesting than that? Elizabeth Leachman has raced sparingly this season, only toeing the line four times so far this spring, including a DNF result over 3200 meters at the Texas State Championships. On the positive side, this freshman holds a flashy 4:47.28 mile PR and is a proven winner, making her plenty dangerous if some runners aren't careful.

Two Miles

Sophia Kennedy (IN)

The daughter of American legend Bob Kennedy, Sophia Kennedy has come into her own and this two mile battle has the potential to be the crowning achievement of her incredible high school career. The Indiana native comes into this race with the fastest seed time (10:00.56), multiple top finishes at previous national meet and she scratched the mile to presumably focus on this race. This is likely her race to lose, but we’ll find out on Saturday night.

Jane Hedengren (UT)

Some observant fans may be a little surprised at seeing Jane Hedengren entered in this two-mile field as she has built her national reputation primarily as a miler. Even so, let's not forget about Hedengren's 2nd place performance over 3000 meters at the Penn Relays back in April where she only lost to our current TSR #3 senior recruit, Karrie Baloga. This weekend, the Utah native will be coming down from altitude and if the race breaks right, she could get an opportunity to use her phenomenal finishing speed.

Paityn Noe (IA)

Paityn Noe is a proven championship performer, placing in the top-12 at three separate national meets in the last calendar year (NXN, Champs Sports and NBIN). This spring, her consistency has been rewarded with a pair of state titles and a new mile PR of 4:43.37. We don't have a ton of data on Noe over the two-mile distance, but her 9:28 (3k) PR from earlier this spring was highly impressive and her consistency has been truly elite.

Jaelyn Williams (CA)

Another freshman who runs fast when it matters most, Jaelyn Williams has been gaining experience and slowly building her resume, having contested this event (or its equivalents) a whopping 11 times this season! Like I mentioned before, she definitely knows how to run fast when it counts, having run a two-mile PR of 10:11.01 to finish 4th at California State Championships. Admittedly, that much racing over this long of a season is something to keep in the back of your mind, but with her current momentum, the sky is the limit for Williams.

Sophia Rodriguez (PA)

Sophia Rodriguez, a legitimate 8th grade girl, first burst onto the national scene through various social media posts after running some very impressive times this winter. She has raced sparingly this spring, but recently posted an incredible 5k PR of 16:22.30...again, as just an 8th grader! Rodriguez is very similar to a few of the other younger runners in this field in that we don’t know fully what to expect of her, but it will almost certainly be entertaining to watch.

5000 Meters

Paityn Noe (IA)

While we don't have a ton of two-mile or 3200 meter data on Paityn Noe (although she has run plenty of 3k races), this is the 5000 meters, and I’m a firm believer that this future Arkansas Razorback is better at this distance than in any other race. After placing 3rd at the Champs Sports XC National Championships this past fall and holding a 16:48 (5k) PR, I'd argue that Noe is the national title favorite at this distance.

Emily Wisniewski (OR)

Emily Wisiniewski may just be a sophomore, but she has clearly realized that her future lies in the longer distances on the track (although she is by no means a "bad" middle distance runner, holding a mile PR of 4:52.94). The Oregon native captured state titles in the 3000 meters and on the grass, as well as an individual birth to the NXN Championships. This will be her first official attempt at a 5k race on the track, and if she can translate even just a little of her prowess from the grass, then she will do just fine.

Jade Rypkema (MN)

An individual national meet qualifier on the grass, Jade Rypkema has a unique edge on the rest of this 5000 meter field as she only opened up her outdoor track season on April 28th. When she finally did toe the line, this Minnesota native made sure to waste no time, running PRs of 4:54.27 (1600) and 10:35.02 (3200). Many of her competitors have been racing since early March, meaning that Rypkema's fresher legs may very well be the difference between a 5th place finish and a 2nd place finish.

Taylor Isabel (MN)

After a solid, but not spectacular, cross country season where Taylor Isabel only dipped under the 18-minute barrier once for 5000 meters, this Minnesota runner seemed to take her fitness to a different level on the oval. Perhaps more importantly, she ran her 3200 meter PR (10:40.77) at the MSHSL State Championships to finish runner-up to the aforementioned Jade Rypkema. If Isabel can keep that upwards momentum going this weekend, then don’t be shocked to see her run a big PR and possibly even flip the script against her in-state rival.

McKenna Kozeluh (ID)

McKenna Kozeluh is similar to a lot of her competitors in this 5000 meter field in that she has never done an official 5000 meter race on the track. One of the elements that helps set Kozeluh apart is her winning ways on the grass, emerging victorious in seven out of her nine races from last fall and successfully defending her state cross country crown. Kozeluh could make for an interesting wild card during Friday Night’s race as her fitness has seemingly not been fully tested yet.

2k Steeplechase

Raygan Peterson (UT)

The top returner from last year’s Nike Outdoor National Championships in this event, Raygan Peterson mostly flew under the radar amongst the loaded competition in Utah this spring. To give a little bit of context, Peterson holds a stellar 1600 PR of 4:56.26 (which she ran at elevation), but only finished 5th at her regional meet. What helps give Peterson an edge over her steeplechase competition is experience, holding an All-American finish from 2022 which could prove to be massively valuable this weekend.

Sydney Collier (WA)

Sydney Collier is no stranger to the national stage, having contested the 5000 meters at national meets both last summer and this past winter, but this will be her first time competing in the steeplechase at this level. The Washington native certainly belongs in this field, holding a 7:12.99 PR in the event and just recently winning a local USATF tune-up meet. I’m giving her the edge over the rest of the girls in the 7:10 to 7:16 PR range due to her experience at past national meets and the fact that she has never lost a steeplechase race…

Avery Murphy (MA)

On paper, Avery Murphy seems perfect for this event as she won the MIAA Division Six state meet in the mile and picked up an all-state award in the 400 meter hurdles. In theory, her skillset between those events should translate to the barriers and water pits. Murphy has only competed in one 2k steeplechase race before, winning by 17 seconds and running a 7:16 PR, so there's no telling what she could do when she’s placed in a competitive field such as this.

Chloe Elbaz (CA)

Chloe Elbaz has been a hurdler as far as back as 4th grade and somewhere along the way, she picked up the distance events, making the 2k steeplechase her hypothetical best event. Sure enough, Elbaz won the USATF Junior Olympics title in this event last summer with an excellent time of 7:05.99. After a recent 7:05.00 PR earlier this season, we don't see why this California freshman can’t continue her hot streak and sneak under the seven-minute barrier.

Margraert Thompson (TX)

As the only competitor entered with a seed time under seven minutes, and someone who also holds some of the fastest flat track PRs in this field, one may ask if Margraert Thompson is the national title favorite in this event? Although Thompson is undeniably talented, we should also note that she has not competed past May 21st of any prior season and she has yet to compete at any national meet. Still she has a wealth of steeplechase experience which should, in theory, make her the slight favorite to take home this year’s 2k steeplechase national title.

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Boy's Distance Fields

800 Meters

Kaleb Nastri (OH)

The current national leader over 800 meters (at the time of writing) has excellent foot-speed, holding a 400 meter PR of 48.33 seconds which perfectly complements his half-mile PR of 1:48.31. If the race comes down to the last 100 meters, then I don’t see a world in which Nastri should lose. Oh, and one more thing, Nastri hasn’t lost an individual event throughout the entirety of this outdoor track season….

Alex "Charles" Leath (AL)

The third and final entrant in this field with a sub-1:49 (800) PR, Alex Leath rose onto the national scene this past winter after a huge 2nd place finish at New Balance Indoor Nationals, but was relatively quiet this spring until he secured a pair of victories at the AHSAA State Championships. One unique racing aspect that makes Alex Leath so dangerous in this field is that his teammate and 1:50 (800) man, Max Armstrong, is also in the championship race. Will there be any team tactics at play in this field?

Tyler Matthews (AZ)

A national meet first-timer, Tyler Matthews has a well-rounded set of personal bests that will theoretically keep him in contention for this race no matter how it plays out. His only loss of the season came at the hands of our TSR #5 senior recruit, Aaron Sahlman, at the Arcadia Invitational. Based on his 1:48.72 (800) PR, it’s unlikely that Matthews' floor is much lower than an All-American finish, so it’s certainly possible that we see the Arizona junior break the tape on Saturday.

Jackson Heidesch (IA)

If you didn't know him before, then you probably know Jackson Heidesch now following his sub-4:00 mile performance at the HOKA Festival of Miles. Before that, this Duke signee was known for his spectacular double at New Balance Indoor Nationals where he won the mile national title and finished runner-up in the two-mile. Admittedly, Heidesch isn’t known as an 800 meter runner (he holds a PR of 1:54.38), but it's clear that his raw talent could will him to a sub-1:50 mark if everything goes absolutely perfect for him.

Collin Boler (NJ)

It's undeniable that is incredibly talented and boasts ton of range, but seeing him entered in the 800 meters, the mile and the two-mile this weekend is certainly ambitious. The 800 meters is the first of those three events and frankly, we have no clue what he may do. With a 1:50.90 (800) PR and some untapped upside still within him, this future Princeton runner feels like a major wild card this weekend.

Mile

Leo Young (CA)

Leo Young has been mostly racing in college and professional fields this spring, an approach that earned him the top seed time in this race via his 3:39.39 (1500) mark (converted to 3:56.95 for the mile) which he ran at the Bryan Clay Invite earlier this season. Between him and his brother, Leo has faster foot-speed, effectively making him the national title favorite depending on what racing aspects you value.

Lex Young (CA)

The recently crowned high school 5000 meter record holder has had a very similar outdoor track season to his brother, racing mainly in college and professional fields. With a national high school 5k record of 13:34.96, it's clear that Lex could absolutely win gold if that fitness translates to the mile distance. I’m giving the status of "national title favorite" to his brother, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if Lex is the first runner across the line.

Rocky Hansen (NC)

The most consistent distance runner in the Class of 2023, Rocky Hansen has run between 4:01 and 3:58 in the mile four separate times this year! Outside of the mile, he has also run personal bests of 1:51.73 (800) and 8:34.78 (3200). The odds are stacked against him as far as his chances to win gold, but his unreal consistency on stages like this undoubtedly make him a factor.

Connor Burns (MO)

Connor Burns has recently developed a reputation for making ambitious goals and bold predictions before his races, but given his recent success, he has earned every right to do so. This season, Burns has run 8:41.67 for 3200 meters and set a then-high school national 5000 meter record of 13:37.30, a record that lasted three weeks and was later taken by Lex Young. Burns vs Young will be one of the many subplots taking place on Sunday evening.

Simeon Birnbaum (SD)

Outside of the Young twins, Simeon Birnbaum has a fairly convincing argument of being the best high school distance runner in the country this spring following wins at HOKA Festival of Miles, Drake Relays and the Arcadia Invitational (en route to an 8:34 PR for 3200 meters). The future Oregon Duck has an extremely impressive mile PR of 3:57.53, his kick is arguably the best in the country, he’s got a ton of momentum right now and he hasn’t lost a race this season. If anyone is going to beat the Young twins, then it’s going to be Birnbaum.

Two Miles

Collin Boler (NJ)

As previously mentioned in our above 800 meter section, Collin Boler is attempting an extremely ambitious weekend triple and the two-mile is the second event of his triple, coming roughly four hours after the 800 meters. Naturally, a key aspect as to how he fares in this race will be how quickly and effectively he recovers. Boller is certainly not a bad aerobic runner, but his strong suit is definitely his kick which can go toe-to-toe with nearly any athlete in the country.

Weston Brown (MT)

Weston Brown was something of a mystery this year as he bursted onto the national scene with an 8th place finish at the NXN Championships back in the fall and then heavily delayed his college commitment until April. But now that Brown has been on our radar this spring, we've seen the Montana native run 4:09.91 in the mile and 8:48.24 for 3200 meters. The Princeton signee thrived the last time that he was on this big of a stage and with no clear-cut national title favorite in this field, Brown has as good of odds as anyone to win gold.

Will Conway (IN)

Will Conway perfectly fits the archetype of the "wild card" in a race such as this -- you never quite know what you're going to get from him. When he’s having a good day, he can hang with a good number of the top guys in the nation, sporting PRs of 4:05.72 for 1600 meters and 8:57.22 for 3200 meters. Admittedly, his times throughout this season have seen fairly significant fluctuations, but I'm certainly not counting out a podium finish for the Tennessee commit.

Noah Breker (MN)

The 2022 Champs Sports XC Championship runner-up finisher has left no doubt on what his best track event is, running between 9:05 and 8:51 over 3200 meters this season. This weekend will be Noah Breker's hardest test and best competition that he has faced since New Balance Indoor Nationals where he placed 9th in the two-mile with a mark of 8:53.47. In a wide-open field, Breker's championship experience and elite PRs seemingly position him for a gold medal effort this weekend.

Landon Heemeyer (ID)

Nobody would fault Landon Heemeyer for ending his season after a controversial 3200 meter disqualification at his district meet. But after winning his appeal, Heemeyer ended up securing the Idaho state title for 3200 meters over 4:04 miler, Tyler Sainsbury. After that win, Heemeyer’s momentum must be on an all-time high and if this race is won in the 9:00 to 9:05 range, then there is no reason why Heemeyer doesn’t have an outside shot at the win this weekend.

5000 Meters

Byron Grievous (NH)

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the most underrated distance runner in the Class of 2024, Byron Grievous. While certain names like Danny Simmons, Clay Shively and Patrick Koon garner plenty attention, we don't often hear much about the guy who has run 3:52.50 for 1500 meters and 8:51.00 for two miles. When you combine those marks with a 12th place finish at the NXN Championships from last fall, then you could argue that Grevious is the odds-on favorite in the field, especially if he can recapture his winter form.

Tate Underwood (TX)

According to Athletic.net, Tate Underwood stopped officially competing for his high school this year, instead competing for the prestigious Celerity Performance Club. So far, that change hasn't negatively affected Underwood who ran times of 9:08.03 for 3200 meters and 14:42.60 for 5000 meters. Expect him to front-run Friday's race as his results indicate that he doesn’t have much raw turnover and instead far greater aerobic prowess.

Joshua Chu (CA)

Joshua Chu is no stranger to racing the 5000 meters on the nation’s biggest stages after having placed 12th at New Balance Indoor Nationals this past winter. With a 9:00 (3200) PR, this California native has the potential to be very competitive, although his times in that event have been a little all over this place in 2023.

Joshua Bell (CA)

Another underrated junior, Joshua Bell holds one of the better 3200 meter personal bests in this field, boasting an 8:55.52 mark. On big stages, Bell has been quietly excellent, placing 19th at the 2022 Champs Sports XC Championships, finishing 6th over 3200 meters at the California State Championships and winning the Mt. SAC XC Invitational. He’s never officially competed on the track over 5000 meters, but his success on the grass and over 3200 meters indicate that he will be a force to be reckoned with.

Franco Parra (TX)

Defending national champion Franco Parra is another junior class athlete who deserves more attention than he has received. He’s not just the defending national champion, but he’s also the top seed in the event with a 5k PR of 14:32.69. Admittedly, the Texas native has been a bit quieter this spring, recording times of 4:20.16 for 1600 meters and 9:24.16 for 3200 meters, but his success and experience from last year are hard to ignore.

2k Steeplechase

Garrett Mackey (OR)

It’s not often that you see someone post a perfectly flat number in a race, but Garrett Mackey managed to do exactly that, running 6:00.00 in the 2k steeplechase a couple of weeks ago which gave him the top seed time at this meet. This Oregon-based distance runner is a “steeple unicorn” of sorts -- an athlete who, although solid on the flat track, is nowhere near as good as his steeple performances may indicate. Despite a lack of flat track times, don't be surprised if Mackey’s experience over the barriers and water pits carries this future Colorado Mines Oredigger to a national title.

Caleb Woolford (UT)

Another “steeple unicorn,” Caleb Woodford has seemingly found a way to distinguish himself amongst the deep Utah high school ranks. In his very first steeplechase, Woolford ran 6:13.05 in this event (at 5300 feet, nonetheless). Factoring in the steeplechase’s learning curve and the untold benefit of coming down in elevation, we don’t see a reason why Woolford shouldn’t be viewed as a potential national title contender.

James Butler (TX)

A member of the competitive Celerity Performance Club, James Butler is another steeplechase rookie who finds himself in the fast heat at Nike Outdoor Nationals. Similarly to the aforementioned Caleb Woolford, his upside and inexperience over the barriers make him a wild card who holds a vast number of possible outcomes for his race this weekend.

Benjamin Seidman (OR)

If the other runners on this list are steeplechase rookies, then Benjamin Seidman is the definition of a steeplechase veteran. This will be his third year competing in the steeplechase and he has certainly shown that he belongs, finishing 3rd at the Oregon Relays in a PR of 6:10.84. Seidman has been very consistent over the barriers and for that reason, combined with his experience, I think he’s a safe bet to finish in the top-half of this field.

Brady Bliven (OR)

Brady Bliven holds some of the fastest flat track PRs in this group, running 1:52.72 for 800 meters and 3:55.28 for 1500 meters. However, he only holds a 2k steeplechase PR of 6:21.63, albeit it was his first attempt at the event. If the Vanderbilt signee's second attempt at the steeple goes smoother than the first time, then he’s one of the last people who I would want to face coming off of the final water barrier.