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The Group Chat: Tracking Transfers (Part Two)
What kind of impact will Anthony Russo have on the Notre Dame men in the fall of 2021?
Maura: The Fighting Irish will not only be getting stronger on the women’s side in the fall of 2021, but they will also see new depth on the men’s side with the addition of Anthony Russo. It’s hard to know where Russo will fall in Notre Dame's lineup given how deep their roster already is. Still, he should be seen as someone fighting for a varsity spot.
Russo has seen tremendous growth over the last few seasons at Penn. At the 2018 national cross country meet, Russo placed 187th, but greatly improved upon that mark the following year when he placed 89th. He consistently scored valuable points for the Quakers and showed poise on the most important stages like the Ivy League Championships, the Mid-Atlantic Regional Championships and the NCAA Championships.
Notre Dame is already a team that could finish within the top-five at the NCAA Championships and when you consider that the Irish only lose Kevin Salvano next fall, Russo and the rest of his future teammates could continue their dominance of the ACC and solidify ND's spot on the podium.
Garrett: I like Russo a lot and his ability to potentially be a scorer is exciting. However, I’m not sure that the Notre Dame men suddenly get drastically better with him on their roster. The Fighting Irish are at a point where they are going to be fighting with the likes of Northern Arizona, BYU, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Tulsa and Oregon for one of the four podium spots.
Yes, Russo will certainly provide his new team with additional depth, but trying to match the up-front firepower of those squads will still be a challenge. Unless Russo has a huge breakout year, I’m not sure he is going to be an All-American candidate who gives the Fighting Irish an edge over those respective teams.
Ben: I agree with Garrett that Russo is a nice pickup, but it is hard to pinpoint exactly how he will help an already loaded Notre Dame team beat other top podium contenders.
I’ve mentioned this before about other transfers, but I think the best part about Russo’s arrival to South Bend is that he gives coach Sean Carlson another lottery ticket. What do I mean by lottery ticket? Well, the more lottery tickets you have, the more likely you are to win the prize.
Notre Dame now has another top runner who, on the right day, could be their winning ticket. Is it likely that he finishes as an All-American? Not really, but when you combine his odds with the odds of other Irish runners like Josh Methner, Jake Renfree and Andrew Alexander, then the likelihood of one of them finishing in the top-40 at Nationals has increased.
With three more All-American candidates in Yared Nuguse, Dylan Jacobs and Danny Kilrea, Notre Dame could solidify their spot on the podium with someone making a big leap and giving the Irish a fourth All-American. Russo could very well be that runner.
Eric: I really like what Ben said about Notre Dame winning the lottery. Generally speaking, Russo isn't expected to make a huge difference given how much talent already is on that roster. That, however, doesn’t mean that Russo can’t have a positive impact. He isn’t a talent like Yared Nuguse, Dylan Jacobs, Danny Kilrea and (maybe) Josh Methner, but there is always the chance that he breaks out and exceeds expectations.
When she joins the Buffaloes in the fall of 2021, where will Gabrielle Orie rank in Colorado’s varsity cross country lineup?
Maura: After a strong postseason in 2019, highlighted by a 90th place finish at the national cross country meet, the Cornell graduate transfer could find herself among the top five scorers for the Buffaloes next fall. Orie owns strong personal bests of 16:20 (5k) and 10:13 (steeplechase), times that should comfortably place her within the varsity portion of this cross country lineup.
The Buffaloes have a strong reputation when it comes to developing their athletes and Orie could be another success story if she properly acclimates to the altitude as well as Mark Wetmore’s training philosophy.
Garrett: I’m not sure I have a great answer to this, mainly because I don’t think we really know what this Colorado lineup is going to look like. Ultimately, I think Rachel McArthur, Abby Nichols, Emily Covert, Holly Bent and Annie Hill could be ahead of Orie when she joins the team.
If I had to guess, I would imagine that the eventual graduate transfer will be the fifth or the sixth runner on this team. However, if she is able to carry her momentum from last winter all the way into the 2021 cross country season, then I could see her being the third or even the second scorer in this Colorado lineup.
Ben: This a great question because, like Garrett said, there is so much uncertainty when it comes to Colorado’s lineup in general. Ultimately, I think Orie will end up being the team’s fifth scorer. Bent was 43rd at NCAA’s last year while McArthur and Nichols finished ahead of Orie at the 2019 national meet.
That said, Orie has improved a lot in the last year, and even on this talented Colorado team, she could end up being one of their top two runners by November.
Eric: Colorado keeps on winning in the transfer market as yet another runner wants to see why Boulder is so special. This time, it's Cornell ace Gabrielle Orie. When you consider that she won't be joining this team until next fall, it seems fair to suggest that she is going to be playing catch up, especially at altitude. That, however, is not to say that she can’t come into this program and immediately have an impact.
I do think that Orie will be in Colorado's top seven throughout the 2021 cross country season, it’s just unclear how high she can climb in that lineup. Regardless, I’m excited to see how both her and Abby Nichols adjust to Wetmore’s training, as well as the altitude.
Who is one under-the-radar transfer from this winter offseason that you don’t think is getting enough attention?
Maura: Washington is (eventually) getting a strong graduate transfer from Princeton in Sophie Cantine. The Ivy League veteran owns personal bests of 4:21 (1500), 4:41 (mile) and 9:23 (3k). On the grass, Cantine has posted respectable finishes and had her strongest season in 2018 when she led her team to the NCAA Championships, finishing 117th overall in the individual race.
At Washington, Cantine will be joining a unique mix of veterans and underclassmen who will only challenge the eventual graduate transfer to improve. Her biggest impact will likely be seen on the track given her personal bests, but she could also be a key member on the grass depending on who returns to the team next fall.
Garrett: I think Sommer Herner leaving UMKC for Kansas is a fairly notable development. Herner was proving to be a talented middle distance runner who was able to secure conference titles in the WAC last winter in both the 800 meters and the mile (she also finished 2nd in the 3000 meters).
Her times aren’t wildly impressive, but she’s clearly a great tactician and what she has accomplished as an underclassmen has been encouraging. I could see Herner making a significant leap in the BIG 12 over the next couple of years.
Eric: She’s not a name who is going to completely change a program, but Quinn McConnell going from Furman to Colorado State is definitely someone who isn’t getting any attention. McConnell is a Colorado native who is familiar with altitude, so I see no reason why she can’t be an integral part of the Rams' roster for the next few years.
As an 800/1500 runner, she will likely train with Bailee Carr who owns a personal best of 2:10 for 800 meters which is just two seconds off of the time that McConnell ran in high school. This isn't to say that McConnell won’t contribute during cross country, I just think she will have more of an impact on the track.
Ben: Jasmine Fehr heading east and landing at Tennessee is a very nice pickup for the Volunteers. With Katie Thronson and Sydney Seymour running well this fall, the women of Knoxville showed some exciting potential.
Adding Fehr, who is coming from Portland, potentially gives the Volunteers another scorer in their lineup. The former Pilot has run times of 2:09 (800) and 4:21 (1500) on the track and even has national meet experience in cross country.
While she might not be the Volunteers' top scorer, she gives them more depth and another valuable lineup option within their top five.
On paper, which program would be the best fit for these distance runners who are currently on the transfer portal?
Garrett: Outside of the obvious Florida State choice, I think Ole Miss could be a good option for Phillips. The Rebels are a southern-based middle distance program who would likely rally around his great mile prowess and potentially develop him into a true cross country threat. On paper, I think that would be a great fit.
Maura: I see Virginia Tech being a solid option for Phillips. The Hokies traditionally have great depth in the mile as seven men ran under 4:05 during the 2020 indoor season. That kind of depth is right in Phillips’ wheelhouse given his 4:02 mile PR.
Developmentally, Virginia Tech provides the opportunity for Phillips to become a top scorer on the track and a potential contributor on the cross country course.
Ben: I like the Ole Miss and Virginia Tech fits for Phillips as well, but how about Indiana? The Hoosiers have churned out some great middle distance talents who can compete on the grass as well. Phillips would thrive next to guys like Matthew Schadler and Teddy Browning.
Eric: With recent success in both the mile distance (Oliver Hoare) and longer distances (Morgan McDonald), why not give coach Mick Byrne an untapped talent like Phillips? It seems like that would be a win-win for both sides. The only question is: could you see a Florida native going to Wisconsin? Considering he was just at Syracuse, yes, I could see it happening.
Garrett: I mentioned Florida State as a theoretical option in a Blue Oval Podcast episode, but I feel like Portland would be a better fit. The Pilots haven’t been afraid to go after graduate transfers before and they already have a handful of underrated talents on their roster.
Adding someone like El-Sandali to their lineup would give this team a major boost in scoring and could really put Portland in a position to do something special come next fall. Their team is generally on the older side, so the best time to go all-in on a talent like El-Sandali would probably be now.
Maura: I could see El-Sandali finishing his eligibility at Arkansas. The current transfers on that roster have already formed a cohesive and talented lineup, so it seems fair to say that El-Sandali could find a role in that varsity group. Not only that, but we also don't know which returners will be available for Arkansas come next fall. If just one spot becomes available, then the Razorbacks would be able immediately fill their scoring gap with El-Sandali.
Ben: I think Virginia would be a good fit for El-Sandali. The Iona ace would give the Cavaliers another true front-runner to race alongside Rohann Asfaw assuming he returns next fall. Coach Lananna’s rebuild of Virginia would certainly be accelerated with El-Sandali on the roster and it would certainly help to have another established veteran guide the youngsters on this team.
Eric: I think the Colonels from Eastern Kentucky are a possible destination. They are distance-oriented program like Iona with an emphasis on cross country which has been El-Sandali’s bread and butter throughout the years. Given EKU's unique emphasis on the longer distances and their willingness to add international athletes to their roster (El-Sandali is Canadian), it's not too much of a stretch to think that the eventual graduate transfer could be racing in the OVC one day.
NOTE: Foster is currently looking at Oklahoma State, Portland, OIe Miss and Washington
Maura: Knowing which schools Foster is considering obviously make this guess a little easier. I expect Foster to choose Washington over Oklahoma State, Ole Miss and Portland. After running shiny personal bests of 14:00 (5k) and 28:40 (10k), Washington seems to be a good fit thanks to the success coach Andy Powell has had with transfers and underdeveloped runners.
It will be interesting to see how Foster’s new track success translates over to the cross country course and I believe that Washington’s past results will give Foster the chance to grow and vie for a potential All-American finish.
Ben: While he doesn’t fit the bill of a typical Ole Miss runner, adding Foster would be a huge pick up for the Rebels. With three top-tier runners already on their roster, Mississippi needs to improve the backend of their lineup in order to improve their chances of a top-10 finish at the NCAA Championships. Putting Foster in that varsity group gives the Rebels the perfect piece to fill out their fourth or fifth scoring option.
Eric: It's extremely hard to think that someone who is familiar with the Ole Miss team won't be going to Ole Miss...but I'm going to choose another school anyway. Oklahoma State provides the better fit as Foster as he is more of a 5k and 10k guy. He would fit right in with Ryan Schoppe, Alex Maier, Victor Shitsama, Ryan Smeeton and Isai Rodriguez as they could use another talented runner in an effort to further solidify their position on the podium (assuming that those veterans return next fall).
Garrett: I couldn't agree more with Eric. Ole Miss is my prediction for where he'll actually end up, but the Oklahoma State men need depth after their top five. I think we would be lying if we thought that Dave Smith wasn't going to pounce on the opportunity to bring in a 28:40 10k runner seemingly out nowhere.
Maura: Brown is a difficult runner to gauge given that he has yet to compete in the NCAA due to the pandemic. Brown, a stud out of high school with personal bests of 8:54 (3200) and 14:51 (5k), as well as a 3rd place finish at the 2019 NXN Championships, should ultimately have his pick of programs.
I see Texas being a potential fit for Brown. The Longhorns are a team on the rise and have a good mix of veterans and underclassmen who could push Brown to improve and reach the exciting potential that we saw from him in high school.
Ben: Brown would be a good fit for any team especially since he has not used up any of his eligibility yet. While I’m not sure if he would actually look here, I do think that Kentucky would be an awesome place for him to develop.
The Wildcats freshmen class is currently led by Matt Duvall who was spectacular this past fall. Adding Brown would give them a talented young core to build around over the next few years as they become a nationally relevant team. For Brown, it would be a low pressure environment where he could grow at the same pace as the rest of the roster.
Eric: If I were Caleb Brown from the state of Ohio, where would I go? If I wanted to stay in the midwest and BIG 10, I would look at Michigan and Indiana. If I wanted to go south to the SEC, then I would go to Tennessee or Arkansas.
Arkansas is loaded this year and likely will be next year. As a result, that would theoretically give Brown a chance to reestablish himself without any pressure of being a scorer. Separately, Tennessee is looking to build upon the recent successes of their program and they would surely be interested in someone like Brown who could be the marquee name of their younger core.
Michigan and Indiana are always competitive and could use another stud to bolster their programs which have recently lost (and will eventually lose) key veterans.
Garrett: I absolutely love the idea of Brown going to Kentucky for the same reasons that Ben mentioned. However, if I had to choose a different school, I would argue North Carolina. It would be hard to pass up a budding distance powerhouse which has already secured some of the best young talents in the nation, both last year and this year.
Maura: I hope that we see some family ties play a role here for Lomong, resulting in him going to Northern Arizona. Both of his brothers, Lopez and Peter, had tremendous success out in Flagstaff. Admittedly, Alex Lomong is more of a middle distance ace, boasting a personal best of 1:47 for 800 meters. When it comes to relays and scoring diversity, Lomong could give the Lumberjacks a significant scoring boost on the track.
Ben: Garrett mentioned this on the podcast, but Lomong to Texas A&M would be a great fit for both sides. The Aggies would get a high-caliber who fits their roster structure while Lomong gets to train with some of the best middle distance runners and coaches in the country.
Eric: Both are a big stretch, but could you see Lomong in Eugene or Seattle training with the Ducks or Huskies? Both are established middle distance programs and have added a plethora of talented 800 meter runners over the past few years. Both teams could use someone like Lomong who would bring a strong veteran presence to their half-mile groups.
Garrett: Texas A&M would be the obvious and most ideal fit for Lomong. Other programs like Penn State, Mississippi State and Iowa State would be the other options. In fact, I really like the idea of the Iowa State Cyclones adding Lomong to their roster.
Many of their top middle distance runners are nearing the end of their eligibility, but they will soon be bringing in top high school star Darius Kipyego.
Depending on when he transfers and which Iowa State veterans return for next year, having someone like Lomong would help the Cyclones sustain their excellence in the middle distances. At the same time, he could also mentor and guide a young star in Kipyego.
