The Group Chat: D1 NCAA XC Championship Preview

TSR Collaboration
Nov 17, 2022
22 min read

Well, ladies and gentlemen, the NCAA XC Championships are fast approaching and we will soon be able to conclude what has been a wild season of action and analysis. Below, we assembled a Group Chat article that is one of the longer previews that we've had in a while.

Predictions are coming soon...

Women's Preview

Let’s just get this question out of the way: Katelyn Tuohy or Parker Valby? Why?

Maura: Looking at their performances this fall, Katelyn Tuohy has run tactically and has broken away from her competition late in her races for the win. On the flip side, Parker Valby has often thrown down the hammer early and has won her races by large margins.

These two women make it hard to choose who will win the title, especially because we don’t have a head-to-head race to analyze. However, I’m leaning towards the title going to Tuohy.

The NC State ace has raced in much deeper fields than the Florida superstar, namely Joe Piane and Nuttycombe. Tuohy has also been able to use her 4:06 (1500) speed to pull away from fields over the last 1k of her races. That finishing strength will be unmatched on Saturday.

Of course, the Gator ace won’t go down without a fight. Valby has superb endurance under her belt and grinds from the get-go, but there’s just something about Tuohy that gives her the edge in my mind.

In the end, Tuohy is my pick to win the whole thing, but it’s going to come down to the final straightaway if I had to guess.

Gavin: I’m pretty big on the idea that you have to see it to believe it.

While this is the boring answer, until proven otherwise, I am keeping Katelyn Tuohy as the individual title favorite. Yes, there is another cross country national champion in this race, and it’s neither of these women (it's Mercy Chelangat), but there’s been little reason to believe that anyone but Tuohy or Valby will win this race, all things equal.

Of course, Ceili McCabe fans might have something to say about that.

Tuohy's average margin of victory in her four races this season, which all came at elite fields such as Joe Piane, Nuttycombe, the ACC XC Championships and the Southeast Regional XC Championships, has been 9.5 seconds. And each victory has been between five and 12 seconds.

Talk about metronomic consistency.

Parker Valby would likely be the title favorite in any other year as she has blown out nearly every field that she’s contested after a delayed start to her season. I think she’ll push Tuohy and perhaps finish closer than anyone else has this season, but the Wolfpack ace seems to be the more likely first-time individual cross country national champion.

Ben: Listeners of the Blue Oval Podcast will know that I have been waffling about this decision for weeks. My head tells me to never pick against Katelyn Tuohy. She can win any type of race and hasn't given us a reason to doubt her.

How about a sit-and-kick affair?

The NC State star has run 4:06 in the 1500 meters and can match anyone on the grass over the last 800 meters.

What about fast from the gun?

Well, Tuohy has run 15:14 for 5000 meters and hasn’t come close to losing a cross country race all season long.

All of that being said, there is something in my gut that's telling me that Parker Valby could actually pull off the upset. She lost to Tuohy by almost two seconds at the outdoor national meet in the 5000 meters, but Valby had not put together a full week of running until May 14th that season.

The Florida star has clearly been healthy for much longer this season, and I can’t shake the feeling that her ability to stack mileage will end up being the difference maker in this race.

I am curious to see how Valby decides to approach Saturday's contest. Will she try to run away from Tuohy early-on? Or will she wait until the last kilometer? Tuohy won’t be easy to drop, but if anyone can do it, then it's Parker Valby, and that's who I'm going with.

What percent chance would you give each women’s team to win the national title?

Maura:

72% NC State. Come on, they're heading to the national meet as the reigning champions and have two individual title contenders (one who is far more probable than the other) in Katelyn Tuohy and Kelsey Chmiel. The rest of the Wolfpack just needs to do their jobs...although Marlee Starliper's absence is a little concerning.

15% New Mexico. The Lobos have unmatched depth on their roster and their lead scorer could change at any meet. Even so, there are still a few holes. Samree Dishon didn’t have a stellar race last Friday and Elise Thorner didn’t race at all, two women who could be game-changers depending on how they perform.

10% Oklahoma State. The Cowgirls have elite firepower with Taylor Roe, Natalie Cook, Billah Jepkirui and Gabby Hentemann. They will also be racing with the home course advantage this weekend. However, with a lack of certainty as to how strong their final scorer will be, it's tough to give them a higher chance compared to teams that have more complete lineups.

3% Alabama. The Crimson Tide may have the best top-four in the NCAA via Mercy Chelangat, Amaris Tyynismaa, Hilda Olemomoi and Flomena Asekol. However, their fifth scorer, Elka Machan, is likely going to be too far back to give Alabama a chance at pulling off the upset.

Gavin:

70% NC State. The odds of the Wolfpack faltering are slim with two veritable top-five women and perhaps five women who are capable of being in the top-50. It’s not impossible, but rather implausible that the ‘Pack, even if not at full strength, finish anywhere but at their peak.

10% Oklahoma State. I think the Cowgirls have as good of a chance as any to topple NC State, which isn’t much. They have the requisite low-sticks so long as Natalie Cook continues to contradict her NCAA inexperience with top finishes.

The biggest question is whether their last scorer, likely Gabija Galvydyte or Stephanie Moss, can give Oklahoma State a fifth All-American and capitalize on any drop-offs from those favored ahead of them. Plus, they’ll have the familiarity of racing on their home course.

10% New Mexico. I’m not as high on the Lobos as a few others are. I think they lack a supreme low-stick this year and I think they could finish on the back-half of the podium. That said, they probably have the highest floor out of any of these teams. You could even argue that their scorers are more stable than what the Wolfpack have.

5% Alabama. The Crimson Tide probably have the highest ceiling of any team outside of NC State, but there’s also a lot of uncertainty here. Hilsa Olemomoi has never competed in an NCAA XC Championship race before while Amaris Tyynismaa may not been fully at her peak form that we saw during winter of 2021 (although she isn't far off).

Even so, I think this team’s improved backend scoring gives the Crimson Tide a strong shot at a podium finish and perhaps more.

Ben:

55% NC State. It seems like I am a little lower on the Wolfpacks' chances of repeating than everyone else. They definitely deserve to be the team with the best odds, but NC State against this field is a tough argument, especially with Starliper's status up in the air.

If we see the absolute best from the Wolfpack, then this isn’t a contest, but we have yet to see them really put it together all on the same day. Going up against teams with so much depth and/or firepower, the NC State women will need to hope that their fourth and fifth scorers are in an All-American range.

Luckily, they have plenty of backend scoring options in the form of Brooke Rauber, Gionna Quarzo and Nevada Mareno.

30% New Mexico. While the Lobos do not have the stellar low-sticks that NC State, Oklahoma State and Alabama enjoy, they do have the most complete lineup. If they can have five women finish between 15th and 30th (and that is definitely a possibility), then they will be the ones bringing home the national title this year.

10% Oklahoma State. The biggest uncertainty that I have for the Cowgirls is if their relative lack of inexperience by some of their top women will be offset by their home course advantage.

Natalie Cook is one of the most talented runners whom I have ever covered, but this is her first NCAA Championship race. How will she respond? The same can be said about Kenyan rookie, Billah Jepkirui.

I trust Taylor Roe and Gabby Hentemann with my life and believe they will run well, but Oklahoma State will still need their two freshmen and a fifth runner to deliver big-time in order to win this title.

One of Sivian Aeurbach, Gabija Galvydte or Stephanie Moss will need to step up and run the race of their life this weekend for Oklahoma State to win the title in Stillwater.

3% Alabama. With Chelangat, Olemomoi and Tyynismaa, the Crimson Tide can go head-to-head with any of these teams through three runners. Flomena Asekol is a solid fourth option, but I think it will be hard for this team to score under 100 points (which is likely what will be needed to win) with Elka Machan finishing outside of the top-60.

2% Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish’s formula for an NCAA title is for them to run exactly how they ran at the ACC XC Championships while hoping that a few other teams struggle. If they run like they did when they only lost to NC State by four points, then this team can win it all if everything breaks prefectly for them.

That admittedly doesn’t seem likely to me as it is hard to duplicate the best race of your season twice, but we do need to acknowledge that it is at least a possibility.

Among the nationally qualified women’s squads, how many tiers of teams are there? And what would you name each of those tiers?

Maura: I think there are three tiers:

The “we are legitimate podium contenders” tier.
The “we don’t have the firepower, but we have the depth” tier.
The “we are here to prove the haters wrong” tier.

Gavin: I’d say four tiers:

Legitimate title contenders -- they boast firepower and depth.
Flawed podium contenders -- they have high-end depth or firepower, but they are also without a solid backing to their varsity lineup.
Top-half traditional powers -- programs again contending for a top-10 to top-15 finish.
Upstart programs who are trying to finish in top-25.

Ben: I'll say seven tiers.

"Championship or bust"
"As long as we run to 90% of our potential, we will be on the podium"
"If 17 things go our way, we could possibly sneak into the top-five"
"A top-10 finish sure would look good as we continue to build our program"
"Our new or newish coach will make us better next year, right? Right?!"
"The BIG 10 and Toledo tier of mystery"
"Big fans of the Kolas system"

Which women’s team has the most to prove?

Maura: The Northern Arizona women have been living in the shadows of their men’s program over the last decade. However, after some steady progress, this looks to be their year. The Lumberjacks have been dominating races this fall, finishing among the top-three at the biggest meets of the season.

With the sudden rise of Elise Stearns, this team has a potential top-10 individual finisher. So long as Annika Reiss is back in this lineup, and their bottom-three scorers do their part, a podium finish is extremely possible.

And yes, I know what you’re thinking, "Why does a team ranked in the top-five have the most to prove?" Well, it’s because the NAU women have the opportunity to show that they are just as strong and deep as their men's team.

Gavin: New Mexico. They rightly should feel like they have a chance for the national title after tying with NC State at Nuttycombe, but they’ll have a couple of fully-realized contenders trying to pull them back.

New Mexico is arguably deeper than any women’s team in the nation, but they need to put a woman or two in the top-15 to feel safe about maintaining their top-half podium status. That's because the top tier of teams entering this race appear to be more top-heavy than usual when you think about Oklahoma State and Alabama.

Ben: I agree with Maura, it’s the NAU women. I have fully bought into this team, but the next step in their evolution is to either land on the podium or come really close. This is a team that has shown some amazing flashes, but they need to put it together when it counts the most and vault this program to another level.

Which women’s team are you rooting for? Why?

Maura: Not gonna lie, the Virginia women came out of the woodworks this fall. I, like many, weren’t expecting the Cavaliers to be a nationally ranked or to be a national qualifying team in 2022...but here we are.

This team dropped some respectable finishes at smaller scale meets leading up to the ACC XC Championships, but then they truly caught me by surprise with their 3rd place finish in what may be the best conference in the nation this year.

The strong running by sophomores Sophie Atkinson, Margot Appleton and Mia Barnett, combined with the addition of transfers Camryn Menninger and Esther Seeland, effectively gives the Cavaliers a dependable scoring group that can all finish fairly close to one another.

That's very important to have in a field as large as the national meet.

I’m liking what Virginia is bringing to the table this weekend. And even though they might not be vying for a title, a top-20 finish for a team that wasn’t picked to qualify for the national meet during the summer months would be considered a major success.

Gavin: Colorado State. I’m biased because one of my best friends goes to school there, but I’ve always held a deep respect for the Rams’ program and culture.

They’re not the biggest name in their own state, nor do they pull in elite recruiting classes, but CSU is an all-business program that consistently competes at a high level and is capable of knocking off bigger names while finishing close to the middle portion of the standings.

Ben: I’ve been a big fan of Georgetown all season long. They remind me a lot of an NBA team who went out to free agency and addressed all of their biggest needs.

The Hoyas went out to the transfer portal and brought in great additions to fill out their roster. Grace Jensen has been perfect for this team and Katy-Ann McDonald has been really strong as of late. With an internally-grown talent in Chloe Scrimgeour showing tremendous progress this fall, this is now a very complete team and I’m excited to see them finish within the top-10.

If you were forced to bet your entire life savings on a single team outperforming their current TSR ranking, which women’s team would that be?

Maura: As you are all well aware, a teacher’s salary isn’t bringing in the big bucks, but the Oregon women are worth my life savings.

It was hard to gauge what the Oregon women would look like heading into the fall, especially considering there was a major coaching change. However, the Ducks have taken off this season, thriving off of momentum following each race.

We currently have Oregon ranked at TSR #13 heading into the NCAA XC Championships. But, after their 11th place performance at Nuttycombe, their 3rd place finish at the PAC-12 XC Championships and their 2nd place at the West regional meet, who's to say that the Ducks can’t slip into the top-10?

The women of Oregon have firepower upfront with Izzy Thornton-Bott, but will need to rely on the backend of their roster to help my dreams of them finishing 10th (or better) stay alive.

Gavin: There’s more room for error the further you go down the standings, but I’m going to pick a team that probably won’t be contending for a top-10 finish.

That would constitute cutting their ranking in half, after all.

Michigan State won the BIG 10 XC Championships (!) and are ranked at TSR #20. Now, admittedly, that conference isn’t the strongest it's ever been on the men’s or women’s side this year, but that kind of postseason performance means something as the Spartans took down a host of similar-level rivals.

The Spartans weren’t incredible (18th) at Nuttycombe or at their regional meet (4th), but they did what they had to do in the latter and still took down a host of eventual national qualifying teams in the former.

Katie Osika should give Michigan State an All-American (or close to it), and the supporting cast is better than that of other teams towards the bottom of this field. I think they’re a safe bet to finish in the top two-thirds of this race on Saturday.

Ben: I am terrified to pick any of the BIG 10 teams, so I’ll go with Colorado State who are listed at TSR #16. With their depth, they have a very realistic shot of being a top-10 team. Other programs will drop back because one of their top women will underperform, but the Rams have enough depth to outlast a bad day from one or two of their runners.

List three women who are NOT inside our XC Top 50 rankings and give us three-word descriptions as to why they will be All-Americans on Monday…

NOTE: Yes, we're counting hyphenated words as one word...work with us here.

Maura:

- Kelsey Harrington (North Carolina): Third national meet

- Danielle Santos (Ohio State): Lurks in shadows

- Siona Chisholm (Notre Dame): Irish’s new gem

Gavin:

- Ruby Smee (San Francisco): Quiet returning All-American

- Haley Herberg (Washington): Gutsy front-running veteran

- Nevada Mareno (NC State): Team race field-tilter

Ben:

- Ella Baran (Colorado): Colorado’s best story

- Ericka Vanderlende (Michigan): Has the talent

- Siona Chisolm (Notre Dame): Rewatch ACC Championships

Give us one bold prediction for the women’s race on Saturday.

Maura: The winning team will be decided based on a tie-breaker.

Gavin: Three teams among the horde of PAC-12 squads finish in the top-10.

Ben: NC State gets upset.

Men's Preview

Is there a true individual national title favorite on the men’s side? If so, who is it? And how many individual title contenders are there?

Maura: No.

In my mind, there are seven legitimate contenders this weekend.

Oklahoma State’s got two contenders in Alex Maier and Isai Rodriguez, and these guys will benefit from knowing the course like the back of their hand.

The Stanford trio of Cole Sprout, Ky Robinson and Charles Hicks have team title aspirations on their minds and likely know that their scoring potency will be needed in order to fend off a deep BYU squad.

Nico Young of Northern Arizona will be going after his first (yes, his first) individual national title on Saturday. This talented runner is worthy of winning gold, but whether or not he actually executes is the biggest question.

BYU's Casey Clinger will be dropping down in altitude and will be breathing that fresh air on a tough course at Oklahoma State. The star veteran exerted just enough energy to ensure that his team would qualify for the national meet and after finishing 24th (2017), 13th (March 2021), and 8th (2021) on this stage, one more improvement to the top is in the works.

And that brings us to my sixth contender, Wisconsin ace Bob Liking. The weather is calling for a high of roughly 40° at race time, something Liking is used to in the midwest. The BIG 10 champion was 4th at Nuttycombe and races like a real veteran.

Gavin: No, and that’s why this race is so interesting.

The individual race will be just as fun to watch as the team battle, and I think there’s double-digit men who could take the crown on an absolutely perfect day.

Nico Young is the biggest favorite in my eyes, but I’ve gone back-and-forth between him and Charles Hicks for my top pick, and I’d probably take the field over both of them.

Look for them to be joined by Victor Kiprop, Ky Robinson and Alex Maier toward the front of the field. The winner will most likely come from that group of five.

Ben: I agree with Maura and Gavin that there is no clear individual favorite. Charles Hicks is my pick, but I won’t argue with you if you believe that it should be Alex Maier.

Like Gavin, I think three other men besides those two could take home the title: Nico Young, Ky Robinson and Victor Kiprop.

You could make an argument for Drew Bosley, Bob Liking or Casey Clinger, and I think one of them will likely finish in the top-five, but I don’t think they have enough to take home the title.

From a legacy perspective, who would gain the most by winning the individual national title?

Maura: The last time Tennessee’s Dylan Jacobs competed at a national meet, he won the 10k title, donning the colors of Notre Dame. This time around, the senior is in the orange of the Volunteers and is looking to back up his NCAA title victory, this time on the grass.

If Jacobs can win it all this weekend, then he will prove that following Coach Sean Carlson to Rocky Top was the right move. It would also validate his gold medal from the spring, effectively etching his name among the elites of this era.

Admittedly, Jacobs hasn't won a race this season, so a top-three (or maybe even a top-five) finish might still be enough to accomplish all of that from a legacy perspective.

Gavin: I think the man with the greatest chance of winning the title also has the most to gain in terms of his legacy. Perhaps that will drive him to accomplish the feat.

Nico Young is one of the most well-known runners in the NCAA, and for good reason. He’s delivered on his promise as a generational recruit who has been even faster than most expected -- and that's impressive given the bar that was set for him.

Now, in his third year, he needs to capitalize on a relatively wide-open field and notch his first title to cement his status among the NAU and NCAA distance running greats. He’ll have his work cut out for him, but he's been getting increasingly stronger with each passing race.

That’s not easy to do when you start toward the very top of the NCAA ranks.

Ben: I agree with Gavin. Young has mostly delivered on all of the promise that made him one of the greatest high school runners ever. An NCAA title would elevate his already-strong NCAA career to another level and could propel him to even greater heights than we previously expected.

What percent chance would you give each men’s team to win the national title? Give us a brief explanation.

Maura:

50% Stanford. The Cardinal are relying on Cole Sprout -- one of the Three Musketeers who will race alongside Charles Hicks and Ky Robinson -- being healthy enough to tackle a 10k race on an extremely difficult course. If he comes through, then Stanford should win...right?

29% BYU. The Cougars could see all seven of their varsity runners earn All-American honors, a feat that would surely turn heads. The firepower that the Cougars bring to this field, from top to bottom, is also very solid. If they can replicate anything remotely close to their 1.9 second top-five time-spread from Nuttycombe, while their top men deliver on expectations, then victory will almost surely be theirs.

16% Northern Arizona. Do I even need to go into detail about the dynasty that the Lumberjacks have created? With five national titles in the last six years, a seventh title is on the table for NAU. However, this might be their hardest title to earn yet, especially given their regular season woes.

5% Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have an advantage here seeing as how they get to compete on their home course. This team could probably draw the course in their sleep. The Cowboys' tool box is full of veterans, sheer firepower and reliable backend depth. What’s not to like?

Gavin:

40% Stanford. It feels almost heretical to say that the Cardinal have a greater chance than not of finishing outside of the top spot. I think they’ve decisively been the best team this season, but they’re far from a lock to win the national title.

They’ve exceeded their dark horse preseason billing and have emerged as the team to beat. But that’s an unfamiliar position for a program that’s been excellent, but hasn’t finished on the podium since 2017.

25% BYU. Stanford is a strong, but not overwhelming, favorite. However, it shouldn’t qualify as a surprise if the Cougars win, at least not compared to their 2019 triumph over NAU. Despite having several new additions in their scoring rotation, the BYU men may have a higher floor than the Cardinal. However, they need most of their varsity lineup within the All-American or top-50 range to win the title.

20% Northern Arizona. On paper, the odds of NAU winning a sixth title in seven seasons feels slim. But that pedigree makes them hard to count out, especially when the Lumberjacks have a number of returners from past championship lineups.

Nico Young and Drew Bosley provide as good of a 1-2 punch as any, but I’m not sure 100% confident that there's another All-American here. Still, I wouldn’t be shocked if a couple of men emerge and the Flagstaff stars find themselves back where they’ve so often been.

14% Oklahoma State. The host school’s title chances continued to take a hit each time All-American ace Shea Foster doesn’t toe the line this season. The Cowboys still have a wealth of options, especially with Isai Rodriguez returning, and are capable of winning a title on their best day.

However, they don’t have the same depth that Stanford or BYU have or the established consistency of the Lumberjacks. Still, a third-straight podium finish appears likely, and the potential for anything greater will be determined by whether or not Fouad Messaoudi or Ryan Schoppe can fully realize their talent and emerge as an elite backend scorer.

1% Other. Hey, you gotta leave the door open for something wild in a world where NAU is no longer the favorite and the two teams that didn’t finish on the podium the past two seasons have the best odds.

Ben:

45% Stanford. Cole Sprout not running last weekend makes me a little uneasy. Coach Ricardo Santos says that he has been running, but I'm nervous that we won’t see the best version of Sprout which cuts down on Stanford’s margin of error.

Yes, their depth looks better than ever, but they need two men to have their best races ever at an NCAA XC Championship to pull off this title. I think they will, which is why Stanford is the favorite, but there are a few moving pieces for them and this year’s contenders are arguably just as loaded.

30% BYU. This is by far the safest team. Despite fielding half of a lineup that is somewhat inexperienced, this team has the most depth of any program I have ever seen. They legitimately could have seven All-Americans.

The Cougars will be spotting Stanford points through three runners, but with Garnica, Troutner and the Thompson brothers, they have great options to round out their last two scoring spots.

If Stanford slips up at all, my bet is for the Cougars to take advantage.

15% Northern Arizona. This is out of respect for Coach Mike Smith and the program. They have not looked like a title winner this year. Bosley and Young have been great, but no one else has been consistent. They have plenty of talent, but they need them to all run at their best this Saturday to have any chance against BYU or Stanford.

10% Oklahoma State. Home course advantage paired with a strong top-four gives the Cowboys a decent chance. If their fifth runner can be a top-50 guy, then they have a shot.

Can Fouad Messaoudi or Ryan Schoppe step up to fill that void? Even if they do, Oklahoma State will need one of the top-three teams to fall off a bit, largely because they will struggle to compete with Stanford's and BYU’s top-four.

Which men’s team has the most to prove?

Maura: The Tennessee men have a lot to show this weekend. Was the move from Notre Dame to Rocky Top the right move for Coach Sean Carlson? Can Dylan Jacobs and Yaseen Abdalla lead the Volunteers to the top-10? Will this team on the rise take down Notre Dame, the previous home of Carlson and Jacobs?

There are a lot of "what ifs" for the men of Tennessee as the back-half of their top-seven haven’t competed on the national stage. But right now, they are checking all of the boxes which signal that their backend inexperience won’t be an issue.

Gavin: Notre Dame. They entered the season as an ACC title contender and a podium threat despite losing their head coach and numerous top scorers. Despite some ups and downs since then, including dropping to 4th place at their conference meet, the Fighting Irish are surprisingly still in a position to realize their wildest preseason dreams.

A podium finish is probably a bridge too far, but I was surprised when going through my individual rankings and then calculating the scoring range for the Irish's backend scorers. Notre Dame, at least on paper, has as good or a better lineup than any second-tier team.

That’s without placing anyone in All-American range besides Carter Solomon. This team has been held back by inconsistencies all season long, but they could realistically not skip a beat if at least most of their scorers run near their potential.

Ben: Fair or not, Air Force has the most to prove. They showed at Nuttycombe that they are a podium contender. And while I don’t think that they need to finish in the top-four to prove that their mid-season race was not a fluke, I think we can expect them to finish in the top-seven and that would effectively validate their surprise result.

A performance like that would push this program forward in a meaningful way.

Which men’s team are you rooting for and why?

Maura: They aren’t the best in the field and aren’t up there challenging for a podium finish, but I will always root for the Utah State Aggies. I think my brother, who competed for Utah State, would disown me if this team wasn’t my pick. But regardless, the Aggies are always on my radar as they are a true middle-of-the-pack team who could catch some people off guard.

Gavin: I’m rooting for Oregon to accomplish a top-half finish and generate some momentum entering next season. I have no ties to the program, but the sport is more fun when the blue bloods are at their best, and things are trending upward for the most historic distance running program in the NCAA since hiring legendary coach, Jerry Schumacher.

Ben: This one is easy for me. I’m rooting for Gonzaga. They have suffered plenty of missteps on the regional and national scene over the past few years, but this year, it finally looks like it could all come together.

Wil Smith and Yacine Guermali look like they will be All-Americans while James Mwaura is rounding back into top form. They have solid options at the fourth and fifth spots in their lineup, and if the race goes well, they can finish in the top-10.

If you were forced to bet your entire life savings on a single team outperforming their current TSR ranking, which men’s team would that be?

Maura: My cat will be left with little food if the Villanova men don’t outperform their current TSR #11 ranking. However, a jump into the top-10 may only be achieved for the Wildcats if All-American talent, Haftu Strintzos, rebounds from an underwhelming regional performance and brings his "A" game at the NCAA XC Championships.

The rest of this lineup has been impressive, but I’m banking of Strintzos to help me out here.

Gavin: I’m pretty much in lockstep with Garrett on how he ranked these teams, but I think the safest pick given the parameters of this question is Arkansas. That’s because the Razorbacks aren’t even ranked in our top-25, and I have them landing on the fringes of the top-20 this weekend.

Low-stick star Patrick Kiprop has arguably underwhelmed a bit this season, but he still has a strong chance at earning All-American honors. Plus, we saw this team’s laudable depth, and perhaps some frontend verve, at the SEC XC Championships when they surprisingly tied Tennessee for the runner-up spot.

Another performance like that would help the Hogs exceed their ranking with ease.

Ben: Gonzaga is the easy answer for me, but I also think that Washington will surpass their TSR #18 ranking. Brian Fay will be an All-American and the Huskies have too much talent not to have a few men within the top-100. That is a recipe for a top-half finish at the national meet.

List three men who are NOT inside our XC Top 50 rankings and give us three-word descriptions as to why they will be All-Americans on Monday…

NOTE: Yes, we're counting hyphenated words as one word...work with us here.

Maura:

- Seth Hirsch (Colorado): The Wetmore Factor

- Matthew Richtman (Montana State): Hamilton’s right-hand man

- Tom Brady (Michigan): Super Bowl champ

Gavin:

- Josh Methner (Notre Dame): Fighting Irish x-factor

- Izaiah Steury (Notre Dame): Nation's top rookie

- Parker Stokes (Georgetown): Experienced steeplechase superstar

Ben:

- Zach Facioni (Wake Forest): Proven NCAA star

- Yacine Guermali (Gonzaga): Breakout national performance

- Thomas Boyden (Stanford): Stanford title clincher

Give us one bold prediction for the men’s race on Saturday.

Maura: Casey Clinger of BYU will follow in the footsteps of Conner Mantz and will make it a three-peat for the Cougars by winning the individual national title.

Gavin: Gonzaga doesn’t put anyone in the top-50, but still meets lofty preseason expectations by finishing in the top-10 to top-15 range.

Ben: BYU, Stanford and Oklahoma State make up 35% of the All-Americans.

Open Mic: Floor is yours, say whatever you'd like

Maura: As much as I like my fellow TSR writers, the Slack channels will be muted and avoided until the afternoon hours so no one ruins the races for me. Friends and family will also be pushed to the side until after race time. Can’t a girl watch NCAA’s in peace?

Gavin: This is the most exciting men’s team title race in recent memory. And if Valby can truly push Tuohy, then the women’s individual title race should be even more entertaining than the more unpredictable men’s race.

Unfortunately, I’ll be covering bad BIG 10 West football in a below-freezing locale trying to refrain from feverishly refreshing the NCAA Championships live results feed.

Ben: Unlike these two, I’ll be glued to my laptop as I watch what should be two iconic races. I can’t remember a time when both the individual and team titles on the men's and women’s sides have been so competitive and compelling. I’m eager to watch and hope it comes down to the wire.