TSR's 2022 D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Men): Update #4

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Nov 15, 2022
13 min read

NOTE: These rankings are based on how a team fared throughout the entirety of a season, not just how they ran at the NCAA XC Championships or at a singular meet.

KEY

(Unranked):

Was not ranked in our last update.

(#/#):

First number indicates how much the team has moved in the rankings.

The second number indicates where the team was ranked in our last update.

ANOTHER NOTE: The Stride Report does not typically put much ranking weight on the regional results. Oftentimes, certain teams will not place much emphasis on these races and will simply run with the goal of advancing to the national meet. This is not to say that all regional results are negligible (as you'll see below). However, you may notice less movement within our top-25 lists than usual.

25. Portland Pilots (-10 / 15)

This ranking may be somewhat controversial.

I'm also sure that both Arkansas and Princeton are fuming at the fact that they were ousted from our rankings while a team that didn't qualify for the national meet remains in our top-25.

We heavily debated whether or not we should have kept Portland in our rankings. Finishing 7th overall at the West Regional XC Championships was...bad. Really bad. I'm not even going to try to analyze their lineup structure simply because I don't believe that Friday's race was representative of this team's true talent.

The one thing keeping the Pilots in these rankings is the fact that they finished 11th at Nuttycombe. That kind of result doesn't just happen by accident and it's hard to ignore that they defeated a handful of teams in that race who are now listed in our top-20.

Is this the right decision? Honestly, I don't know.

But if we're ranking a team based on their entire season, then it seems appropriate to place Portland at TSR #25. Of course, that could very easily change depending on how unranked teams perform at the national meet.

24. Colorado State Rams (-2 / 22)

Seeing Colorado State record a 6th place result at the Mountain Regional XC Championships, nine points behind Montana State and 66 points ahead of Utah State, left us shrugging our shoulders and saying, "Yeah, that seems about right."

Thomas Chaston (11th) ran fairly well and Mason Brown (16th) has been solid as well. The rest of the lineup was a bit more spread out, but there weren't any massive gaps that someone can point to and say, "That's the problem."

Ultimately, the Rams' success at the national meet will be determined by how well their back-three scorers perform.

23. Virginia Cavaliers (Unranked)

How on Earth do we rank the Virginia men?

Their season as a whole has had quite a few ups and downs. They held their own at the Panorama Farms Invitational, but then they faltered hard at the ACC XC Championships.

Finishing runner-up at the Southeast Regional XC Championships was a huge result for a UVA team that was going to be in major trouble if they had to rely on Kolas points for national meet qualification.

Justin Wachtel (3rd) looks like he's at his best the longer the race becomes while Derek Johnson (10th) was a nice surprise in that second scoring role for the Cavaliers.

With Yasin Sado, Rohann Asfaw and Will Anthony packing up to finish 22-23-25 in the overall results, the Cavaliers were able to flex a balanced lineup that guaranteed them a spot to the national meet.

If they run like that on the national stage, then UVA is going to probably finish in the top-17. The problem, however, is that this team has shown moments of inconsistency this fall and the youth that is scattered throughout their lineup does leave room for volatility.

22. California Baptist Lancers (-4 / 18)

Just because the California Baptist men didn't qualify for the national meet doesn't mean that they ran poorly on Friday or that they aren't deserving of a ranking.

Yes, the Lancers did finish 5th overall at the West Regional XC Championships, but we knew that a result like that was plenty possible. And the fact that they finished only four points behind Oregon should go to show how talented they truly are.

Admittedly, CBU probably needed their low-sticks to be a bit more potent in terms of scoring. They didn't have anyone in the top-10 while every other team in the top-six at least had one top-10 finisher.

It's a bit of a bummer to see the Lancers out of the national meet, but they had a very solid season. They took down the likes of Colorado State, Butler and Arkansas this fall while also finishing with one point of Montana State.

And for that reason, they'll stick around at TSR #22.

21. Ole Miss Rebels (Unranked)

Let's just be blunt. The Ole Miss men, relative to expectations, were flat-out bad during the regular season. They crumbled to 15th at the Cowboy Jamboree and had an arguably even worse race at the Panorama Farms Invitational when they settled for 7th.

However, at the SEC XC Championships, the Rebels showed a moment of brilliance. Anthony Camerieri (6th) looked like a true low-stick, Chris Maxon (9th) was a pleasant surprise, Cole Bullock (13th) looked stronger than he did during the regular season and both Shane Bracken (17th) and Aidan Britt (20th) were able to quickly close out Ole Miss' scoring.

The Rebels were just one point away from tying both Tennessee and Arkansas. They were also a mere five points behind Alabama, the winners.

But I'll admit, I questioned whether or not the Rebels would be able to replicate that kind of performance as they moved up to 10k -- and they did.

At the South Regional XC Championships, the Ole Miss men put together one of the more clutch performances that we've seen this season. They had four men in the top-18 and their fifth runner was good enough in 32nd place to get the Rebels the second automatic qualifying spot.

In the process, they took down the SEC champions, Alabama, by five points.

On most occasions, a team that has the same resume that Ole Miss has this fall probably wouldn't be listed in our rankings. But it's impossible to deny that the Rebels are a completely different team now than they were one month ago.

They have been competitive with some of the top teams in the country on multiple occasions and they recently proved that their big performance at the SEC XC Championships, even if it was a 4th place result, was no fluke.

I said this in an earlier article, but I don't know if any team is peaking better than Ole Miss is going into the national meet.

20. NC State Wolfpack (0 / 20)

There really isn't a whole lot to talk about here.

The NC State men finished 4th at the Southeast Regional XC Championships last Friday, but it was clear that they were still among that upper-echelon of teams in that field.

The Wolfpack flexed a lineup that was incredibly well balanced. The gaps between all five of their scorers was never less than five places and never more than eight places. And frankly, that kind of steadiness, even its unexciting, will likely help NC State on the national stage.

19. Oregon Ducks (0 / 19)

We thought that a larger field would theoretically benefit Oregon in the same way that it did at Nuttycombe. That, however, was not the case on Friday.

The Ducks placed 4th overall the West Regional XC Championships, well behind the Washington men and only a handful of points ahead of California Baptist.

We all know how great Aaron Bienenfeld (2nd) is, so there's not much to talk about there. It was also nice to see Abdinasir Hussein (16th) and Quincy Norman (20th) separate from that backend pack to be the Ducks' second and third scorers.

Even so, with the final Oregon scorers crossing the line in 50th and 55th place, the Ducks just didn't have enough scoring support to put themselves in contention with the top-three teams.

The Ducks were outstanding at Nuttycombe earlier this year and the NCAA XC Championships mirror that mid-season mammoth of a meet. If Oregon runs like they did back in October, then they should leave Stillwater, Oklahoma fairly happy.

But based on recent results, I'm not entirely convinced that they'll run that well again.

18. Washington Huskies (+3 / 21)

The Washington men look like they are truly beginning to find their rhythm as we enter the national meet. After a slow-ish start to their season, the Huskies have rallied in the postseason and have begun to develop some serious momentum.

A 3rd place finish at the PAC-12 XC Championships was a solid step in the right direction, but we felt that Oregon's performance at Nuttycombe still held more weight. But with the UW men getting a more comfortable win over Oregon last Friday, it's time to put the Huskies back in our top-20.

Brian Fay's individual victory was very promising and Luke Houser (9th) looks like he's beginning to deliver on his true potential. While the final three scorers did fall back to finishes of 28-32-35, that was actually much better backend support than what we saw from Oregon, CBU, Boise State, Portland and Cal Poly.

The Huskies' lineup is slowly beginning to find some cohesion. If one name from that backend group makes a jump up, then Washington could have a phenomenal result on Saturday.

17. Gonzaga Bulldogs (+5 / 22)

Despite what their 10th place result at the Cowboy Jamboree suggests, that was actually a fairly strong performance for the Gonzaga men. Sure, their Nuttycombe result was far from great, but they were also very clearly better than that.

A win over Portland at the West Coast Conference XC Championships helped their stock, as did the return of James Mwaura. And after landing a runner-up finish at the West Regional XC Championships, it's hard to see how this team doesn't go anywhere but up...right?

16. Montana State Bobcats (+1 / 17)

Montana State placing 5th overall in the Mountain region ahead of Colorado State was probably one of the most predictable performances in the country on Friday. It's nice to see Duncan Hamilton and Matthew Richtman earning a pair of top-five finishes, but there was a somewhat large-ish gap from them to the final three Bobcat scorers.

I'm not looking too heavily into this result for Montana State, but I continue to have a hard time figuring out what their lineup structure is truly like.

I'll admit, a TSR #16 ranking feels a bit high for Montana State. But when I look at their resume and compare it to other teams behind them, I don't know if anyone else has been more impressive than the Bobcats.

15. Alabama Crimson Tide (-1 / 14)

Here's the thing: I'm not exactly concerned that Alabama finished 3rd at the South Regional XC Championships. However, I am becoming increasingly more concerned about Eliud Kipsang who faded to 28th place on Friday.

For a team that has to rely so heavily on their entire top-three running well, having Kipsang struggle before the national meet isn't a great sign.

At the same time, certain performances deserve context. There was apparently some considerable contact made early in the race and that was why Kipsang ran like he did. If that doesn't happen, then we're likely not having this conversation.

Not only that, but Jacob Harris continues to be an incredible scoring asset for Alabama this fall following his 15th place finish on Friday. He is peaking beautifully throughout this postseason.

If this supporting cast wasn't the strongest that it's been in the Dan Waters era, then I would be more concerned about the prospects of this team at the national meet. But for now, they'll settle in at TSR #15.

After all, they were the SEC champions...

14. North Carolina Tar Heels (+2 / 16)

If we're going to be completely honest, I'm not sure how I feel about the North Carolina men being ranked at TSR #14. However, they won the Southeast regional title on Friday and the other teams behind them just haven't impressed me as of late.

Some people might think that this team runs through Parker Wolfe. And to some extent, they may be right. However, I would argue that this team actually runs through Patrick Anderson.

The Pennsylvania native earned an outstanding 2nd place finish at Paul Short, struggled at Nuttycombe and was just okay at the ACC XC Championships. I don't think it's a coincidence that following a strong 6th place finish from Anderson at the Southeast Regional XC Championships, the Tar Heels win the title.

The backend scoring combination of Will Coogan, John Tatter and Marshall Williamson have generally been pretty solid and reliable this season, minus one or two "off" days.

When you add in Ethan Strand and Crawford Hope, there are seven men on this roster who can realistically be scorers for UNC at the national meet. I don't know if all seven of them will run to their full potential on Saturday, but that's fine as long as five of them do.

And for that reason, I think it's fair to place UNC at TSR #14 going into this weekend.

13. Tennessee Volunteers (0 / 13)

Tennessee's performance at the South Regional XC Championships was how they were expected to race at the SEC XC Championships. Going 2-3-9-12-19-21 last Friday gives the Volunteers one of the most complete six-man lineups in the country.

They have elite firepower in Yaseen Abdalla and Dylan Jacobs, some of the best middle-lineup contributors in the country via Nate Kawalec and Karl Thiessen and proven backend support scorers in Eli Nahom and Jacob Lewis.

When this lineup is firing on all cylinders, it's going to be really hard to take them down. They just posted 39 points and easily trounced two highly respected teams in Alabama and Ole Miss.

The Volunteers may be one of the last teams who I would want to face going into Saturday.

12. Syracuse Orange (0 / 12)

No surprises here. Syracuse easily cruised through the Northeast Regional XC Championships despite only having six men finish the race. But truthfully, that didn't really matter, especially with all six of their runners cracking the top-30 and three men putting themselves in the top-11.

I don't know if Syracuse's ceiling is as high as a few other teams going into the national meet, but they probably have one of the highest floors in the NCAA, meaning that I struggle to see a scenario where they run poorly on Saturday.

11. Villanova Wildcats (0 / 11)

The Wildcats were supposed to dominate the Mid-Atlantic region and they did. They put six men in the top-15 and had three men in the top-eight.

But even if this result was expected, it is still so encouraging to see Villanova have six men who can legitimately emerge as a scorer or any given. Their margin for error is far greater now than we thought it would be at the beginning of the season.

That said, I have one minor concern and one encouraging development.

The good news is that Marco Langon, a true freshman, finished 4th overall during Friday's race, proving that he can be more than just a supportive backend piece.

The bad news is that Haftu Strintzos, the dynamite low-stick from last fall, finished 15th at the MId-Atlantic Regional XC Championships. And after a modest result at Nuttycombe, we've been left wanting a bit more scoring potency from this Aussie ace.

10. Colorado Buffaloes (0 / 10)

Coach Mark Wetmore always understands that the Mountain Regional XC Championships are simply a scrimmage before the real test. We're not going to pull any major insights from the Buffaloes when look at their most recent results.

Going 7-12-19-21-38-39-60 largely mirrors the lineup structure that we've seen from the Colorado men throughout most of this season. That said, if everyone on this team runs their absolute best on the national stage, then their ceiling could be a top-five or top-six finish.

That's admittedly a bit overly optimistic, but the talent is very clearly there.

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0 / 9)

8. Wisconsin Badgers (0 / 8)

I'm lumping these two teams together given that they both raced at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships and went 1-2 in the final results, respectively.

It's extremely obvious that both the Badgers and the Fighting Irish were just going to run in packs and prepare themselves for the national meet.

Notre Dame's top-two men finished 5th and 6th while their bottom three scorers crossed the line by going 15-17-18. As for Wisconsin, they went 8-9-10-11-12-13 and crossed the line together.

I do want to note that Notre Dame's third runner in this meet was Jake Renfree who has been admittedly struggling lately. It was really nice to see him put together a respectable result.

Alright let's move on...

7. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (0 / 7)

Yes, the Wake Forest men did finish 3rd in the Southeast region instead of finishing in the top-two, but I'm hardly concerned.

I say that because Aaron Las Heras, who is at his best in the 10,000 meters, settled for a 20th place finish on Friday and crossed the line alongside teammate, Thomas Vanoppen.

And with six men in the top-31, which is better depth than any other team in this field, I don't know why I would be concerned about a team that crushed most of these programs at the ACC XC Championships just a couple of weeks ago.

6. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (0 / 6)

The Tulsa men tied the Oklahoma State men for the Midwest regional title with the Golden Hurricanes getting the edge. That was largely because they went 3-4-5-6 through four runners, but then had their fifth scorer settle for 31st place overall.

Nothing that we saw from Tulsa on Friday told us anything that we didn't already know. As long as we saw Shay McEvoy toe the line and hold his own (after not racing at the AAC XC Championships), then I wasn't going to look too deeply into these results.

5. Air Force Falcons (0 / 5)

The Air Force men finished a comfortable 4th place overall at the Mountain Regional XC Championships, surprising no one by crowding the top-32 with six different men, although their top finisher was no higher than 10th (Ryan Johnson).

There's good news and bad news when it comes to the Falcons.

It also just so happens that the good news is the bad news...and vice versa.

We have not seen Nick Scheller at all this season. It's highly unlikely that he comes back at the national meet, but if he does, then he could make this team scary-good.

We also haven't seen Luke Combs or Scott Maison since Nuttycombe. And while those two absences are concerning, a potential return from one (or both) of these men would only boost Air Force's chances of earning a podium finish.

The number of varsity options on Air Force's roster is probably more than almost any other team in the country with the possible exception of BYU. While not having key names from earlier this season or past seasons is concerning, the possibilities of what this team could do if/when they return makes the Falcons somewhat of a sleeping giant.

4. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (0 / 4)

Is Northern Arizona better than what they showed us at the Cowboy Jamboree and at Nuttycombe? Yes...probably.

At the same time, I can't act like their Mountain region win was a major statement or a signal about their chances to win the national title.

Seeing Raff and Hasty run well was nice, but they've been on that stage numerous times before and there really isn't much of a correlation between regional results and how they eventually perform on the national stage.

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys (0 / 3)

The Cowboys were clearly just trying to do enough to advance to the national meet and they still ended up tying with Tulsa for the top spot. They put six men in the top-17 and their bottom four runners from that group were all within five seconds of each other.

The only note that we should make is that Shea Foster, a former cross country All-American, seems to truly be out for this season. That's a tough loss, but the Cowboys still have plenty of firepower that they will be challenging for other teams to match at the national meet.

2. BYU Cougars (0 / 2)

Much like Northern Arizona, we shouldn't put much stock into these Mountain region results, at least not for BYU. They put four men in the top-13 and opted to (presumably) rest both Thompson brothers as well as Aidan Troutner.

The Cougars have far greater aspirations than a good showing at their regional meet.

1. Stanford Cardinal (0 / 1)

A comfortable win in the West region for Stanford left no one surprised, although the Cardinal didn't have Cole Sprout. Coming into the weekend, the Colorado native had been logging fairly limited mileage on Strava and doing a lot of bike work.

It's important that we don't overanalyze things like this, especially since some of Sprout's recent runs that he has listed on Strava have been a bit more encouraging. Still, for a team that needs their top-three men to be firing on all cylinders, we can't help but be a little curious.