Predictions & Previews: 2021 D3 Outdoor National Championships (3k Steeple)

Women

Kevin: I debated picking between Aubrie Fisher and Melissa Rowland in my head for a while before making this prediction, but ultimately what it came down to was Fisher’s versatility and performances in other events compared to Rowland. The cross country All-American, 16:57 (5k) and 2:16 (800) pedigree suggests flexibility and a great balance between strength and speed.

While Rowland’s rise has been nothing short of incredible, it is unclear if she's the same title contender that Fisher is. Fisher is also more battle tested and has appeared at bigger meets more often which is not necessarily a big advantage, but it can be on occasions like this one.

Emma Malooly of Wisconsin-LaCrosse is somebody who I see outperforming her seed, as is Connecticut College’s Tarvis Hintlian. Malooly has the eighth-fastest seed time while Hintlian is seeded 10th.

In Malooly’s case, she has been highly consistent in her performances since the return to competition this winter, and her steeple races this season were within one second of each other. The steeple may be unpredictable, I just don’t see her having a bad day or blowing up, and she may be able to take advantage of other runners dropping back to move forward into a higher scoring position.

Hintlian’s last competition before this season was the 2019 outdoor season. After a two-year layoff, she has been able to make big breakthroughs in the steeple, dropping from 11:38 in April to 10:55 three weeks later.

That 10:55 came in a quad meet where she defeated Anna Slager who went on to run the third-fastest time in the country. Despite only running in smaller, in-conference meets, Hintlian has faced great competition, and she has not backed down from it, so I think she can will her way to one of the All-American spots.

Brett: With her strong resume behind her, Aubrie Fisher is the favorite in my book for the national title this weekend. She has been running strong all throughout the season and has currently never lost a steeple in college -- that streak could very well continue this weekend.

Right with her though are two women from Tufts: Melody Rowland and Anna Slager. It will be quite interesting to see if some team tactics come into play, as those two could easily take the race by the horns and make it their own. If they can seize the opportunity and the cards fall right, we could potentially see a 1-2 finish for Tufts.

On another note, this will be the first year in awhile that DIII hasn’t had a prelim for the steeplechase, so this final could play out a lot differently than previous years at the National meet. With lots of fresh legs, it really wouldn’t surprise me to see a fast race from the get-go and lots of new PR’s established.

Hannah: When the NCAA chose to narrow the D3 fields down from 22 to 17, they also eliminated the prelims for the steeplechase. Now, there is a lot of debate on why the NCAA did that (they argue COVID precautions, but are letting up to 8000 fans in), but eliminating the prelim helped Aubrie Fisher.

Fisher is doubling in the steeple and the 5k, so without a prelim she is able to save some energy for her other two events. I gave Fisher the win here as the only races she has lost this year was an 800 at Drake Relays and a 4x400. She was a triple winner at the 1500, 5k and steeple at the American Rivers Conference meet and has just been on a tear this year.

Her 2:16 (800) PR tells me she will be very hard to run away from at the end of this race. Even though Melissa Rowland has the fastest seed time, I am picking Aubrie Fisher to win this event.

Someone who I am picking to outrun their seed is Paige Allemann from UW-Steven’s Point. In only her second-year of running the steeple, she has made huge improvements. At the North Central Last Chance meet she dropped an 18-second PR to run 10:55 and qualify for Nationals.

That shows that she can run well when the pressure is on (as she was out of qualifying before this race) and that she is peaking at the right time. Look for Allemann to team up with conference rival Emma Malooly from UW-LaCrosse and try to break into that top-eight.

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Men

Brett: Considering Wilkinson’s unbelievable 8:44 performance at the MIAC conference meet, this will pretty much be a good battle for 2nd place. There are many names not to be counted out, but Wilkinson is leaps and bounds ahead of the field. I think many people would be shocked if someone not named Matthew Wilkinson takes home the national title.

It seems as though all three of us have a nice mixed bag of predictions between Collet, George, O’Brien and Jones for the 2nd and 5th place spots behind Wilkinson. All four of these guys ran impressive steeples throughout the regular season, not needing to run at last chance meets.

Hannah: Carleton’s Matthew Wilkinson is far and away the favorite for this event. He has run the NCAA #3 All-Time mark in Division 3 history with an 8:44.01. That is 0.23 away from the Division 3 record. Let’s all be on record breaking watch Friday afternoon.

I can see a large group running together as Wilkinson runs away with it. I think the group of Neil O’Brien of Trine, Andrew George of UW-Oshkosh, Jonah Jones of Wheaton, Christopher Collet of Wartburg and Lucas Caminiti of Edgewood will pack up and run together most of the way until the last 300 meters where we will see who has the leg speed to run away from the group. We’ve seen that O’Brien has some speed from the 1500 and so does George.

The steeplechase is always an unpredictable event and we’ll see who can keep their composure and not make any mistakes, especially in the last lap as a national title and All-American status is on the line.

Kevin: Picking anyone other than Carleton's Matthew Wilkinson to win this would be a crime. He ran 8:44 at the MIAC Championships in what was basically a solo run. I don't see anyone making it difficult for him in the final.

The real battle is for 2nd place and I have picked Neil O'Brien of Trine in that spot. He comes in with the fourth-best seed time at 9:06.98, but I think he has an edge over some of the other competitors in the field due to his foot speed. Last week at a last chance meet, he ran 3:50.86, which would have qualified him for the 1500 at Nationals, but he scratched in favor of the steeple. Anything can happen in the steeplechase, but if the chase pack is together late, I think O'Brien is the most likely to come out of it.

Another guy that I think will outperform his seed is Christian Patzka of Wisconsin-Whitewater, as he is my only All-American pick for this event seeded outside the top-eight. The freshman is coming off of a highly impressive indoor campaign where he ran 8:26 for the 3000, as well as a 4:14 mile.

His 9:10 seed time came in his most recent race at the Augustana Final Qualifier, so he appears to be peaking at just the right time and All-American honors are very feasible.