Predictions & Previews: 2021 D3 Outdoor National Championships (10,000 Meters)

Women

Brett: It’s been a long time coming for Parley Hannan. Ever since her extraordinary rise to the upper-echelons of D3, she hasn’t had a chance to earn a national title on the track. Now, a year and a half later, this will be her first opportunity to strut her stuff and compete hard for a title.

It won’t come very easy though, as Kassie Rosebum is the defending national champion in this event from two years ago. These two ladies are head and shoulders above the rest of this field and I think it’ll be a terrific battle. I’ll give the nod to Hannan in this scenario, but it’s going to be a very close race.

Otherwise, I think there will be some great competition for the rest of the field. Danielle Page, Alex Ross, Clara Mayfield and Genna Girard all have run well under 36-minutes in the 10k and should all have a nice battle with the rest of the field.

Hannah: In the first of two battles between Kassie Rosenbum and Parley Hannan, I have Hannan taking the win.

Hannan’s 34:12 was run at RIT and she beat 2nd place by four minutes while Rosenbum had a lot more competition during her 34:19 at Drake Relays. These two are the class of the field and one of them will be the national champion.

There is not a lot of national experience in this field, due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, Carina Collet and Rosenbum are the only two returners from the last championship 10k that we had in 2019. Collet is a veteran on the national stage and brings that extra edge into this meet.

In 2019, Collet was one spot outside of All-American honors, finishing 9th. She’ll be looking to avenge that loss by finishing in the top-eight this time around. This will be Collet’s fourth 10k of the season, so she should be pretty dialed in. Her 35:41 PR is from 2018, but if this race gets out hot because people are chasing Hannan and Rosenbum, then it is sure to go down.

Kevin: Reigning 10k champion Kassie Rosenbum will face a very competitive challenger in Parley Hannan. Those two should be able to pull away from the rest of the field and duke it out on their own, but they may want to wait to move as they are both doubling back in the 5k two days later. I think somebody will start to throw the hammer down around the 8k mark and whoever moves first will hold on for the win.

It will be a great matchup, but I have to give the slight edge to Rosenbum. She is the defending champion and there is something to be said for knowing how to win a particular event at a meet like this.

Outside of those two, one prediction I have that may appear to be a hot take is Sophia Wolmer of Amherst finishing in the top-five. Yes, she is only seeded 10th and has no national championship experience., but she has also only run one 10k in her collegiate career, and the largest meet she has run in this year has been a quad meet.

She definitely has potential to take a step up when the stakes are higher, as do a lot of NESCAC runners who have only faced competition in conference.

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Men

Brett: For me personally, this is the race I’m most looking forward to this weekend. The depth of the D3 10k is absolutely nuts this year and there are many names to consider in this race.

First off, I’d like to be the first to say it: Lucas Mueller is BACK! After some struggles the last few seasons, Mueller has come back into good form this outdoor season, running 14:30 (5000) and 29:46 (10k) in some impressive efforts. He’s the reigning national runner-up in this event from 2019 and I’d credit that experience to help him a lot this weekend. This will be a good continuation of his comeback story.

Alex Phillip has been on an absolute tear this outdoor season, not having lost in any 5k or 10k he’s raced. He’s had some great battles with Hunter Moore of Otterbein and also has teammate Jamie Dailey with him in this race, and I have a good feeling he’ll capitalize on the opportunity to race against the rest of D3. He had some speedy last laps at the OAC conference meet which serves him well for the national setting.

This will be Joe Freiburger’s fourth 10k of the season, which is honestly rather impressive. He’s a guy we’ve been talking about for quite some time now and he’s shown that he can run fast solo (29:36 10k) as well as in a fast field (14:00 5k). Now, to bring it all together, can he close well with the field? If so, he’s extremely deadly and has a good shot to take the title.

Kevin: Anything can happen in a 10k, especially this year. 10 guys have run under 30 minutes leading up to this meet, as opposed to just five in 2019. I think that top seed Jared Pangallozzi will hold on for the win, but there are a bunch of runners who could make things interesting.

Joe Freiburger will always be in the race -- keep in mind that while his seed time is only 29:56, he did run 29:36 earlier in the season, which would move him to the third seed if it were officially counted. He has run 14:00 in the 5000 meters, and while that won’t necessarily translate to a 10k, it proves that he can perform at an elite level with the nation's best.

Once it gets into late May, and the weather starts to heat up, there are a lot of shake ups with the 10k placement, but those are almost impossible to predict. What that does mean is that it is almost certain that someone seeded a little further back will claim an All-American spot.

I believe that amongst the guys outside the top-eight on the accepted entries, Matthew Sayre is the most likely to do that. When he ran 30:01, it was a win by almost two minutes. He can likely perform at an even higher level when facing a championship field and hold his own very well in this event.

Hannah: Like Brett and Kevin have mentioned, this field is historically deep and we could see this come down to a last lap sprint which would be brutal after 30 minutes of racing in the North Carolina heat only to finish in 9th place.

I went the predictable route and took the man with the fastest seed time as my winner. Now, there are a few reasons that I think Jared Pangallozzi will come out on top in this race.

For someone who was already All-American material, Pangallozzi came off a year of no racing and immediately set a 5k PR of 14:27. He followed that up with his 30:20 (10k) PR at the Virginia Challenge (where he should have been in the invitational race). That was the last 10k that he finished and he has only raced twice in the six weeks since.

That doesn’t worry me as he did not need to race as he had already scored his qualifier. His last race was a 3:52 1500 which points to him sharpening up his speed heading into this national meet. I think Pangallozzi has the strength to hang on if it’s a fast race and the speed to win if the race becomes slow and tactical.

After Pangallozzi I think there are 14 or 15 men who will be fighting for the last seven All-American spots. Watch out for Joe Freiburger of Wartburg, Hunter Moore of Otterbein, Frank Csorba of Lynchburg and Alex Phillip of John Carroll who I have earning double All-American honors in the 10k and the 5k.