Predictions & Previews: 2021 D3 Outdoor National Championships (5000 Meters)

Women

Brett: Enter Ana Tucker: She’s one of the few top names in D3 who hasn’t had a national meet opportunity on the track thanks to COVID, but now will be the time for her to shine. She’s running this race fresh, unlike many of the others in this race, which gives her a nice advantage. However, she has Parley Hannan to deal with, one of the best women runners D3 has ever seen.

If this race gets out hot, especially by Tucker’s doing, it could let the race fall into her grasp. Though, that can be rare on the third day of the national meet. Hannan is still on a better level than anyone else in D3 currently in the 5k, so she’s my pick to win it.

In comparison to the 10k, this race will be a whole lot closer. Names like Kassie Rosebum, Ella Baran, Danielle Page, and Isabel Cardi all can do some serious damage when it matters the most. I think many of the All-American spots will be up for grabs and will likely come down to the final stages of the race to determine them.

Kevin: Parley Hannan will win the women’s 5000 at D3 Nationals. That is not at all a controversial statement, but I do think it will be tighter than anticipated. Ana Tucker and Kassie Rosenbum should provide some competition to make it just a little bit difficult for Hannan.

Tucker has taken the next step up this year from a fringe All-American to a national title contender. The sophomore is still rounding into her own and is certainly capable of staying within reach for at least the majority of the race.

Rosenbum is a competitor who likes the big moments, as she showed with her surprise victory in the 10,000 at the NCAA Outdoor Championships in 2019. She has since gone on to prove that that performance was no fluke, and she continues to contend for titles. Her seed time of 16:45 came in a solo effort where she won by almost three minutes, so it looks as though that time does not truly reflect her actual ability.

If anyone beats Parley Hannan, it will either be Ana Tucker or Kassie Rosenbum.

Hannah: It will be shocking if anyone but Parley Hannan wins this race. I know we talk about her a lot, but it is all deserved. Her 16:17 mark is NCAA #6 All-Time in D3. She won’t be facing Emily Pomainville, who has the second-fastest time in this event, as she is focusing on the 800 and 1500.

Hannan has only raced one 5k since her 16:17 in early March and in that race she went 16:58 to win by almost a minute at the AARTFC Championships. I think Hannan has this locked up.

That doesn’t mean the rest of the race won’t be exciting. Like Kevin and Brett mentioned, Ana Tucker vs Kassie Rosenbum battle will be very interesting.

However, I think Ella Baran can use her 4:26 (1500) speed to shock them all. She, most likely, will be doubling back from the 1500 final three hours before this race, but two 1500 races in your legs is nothing compared to the 10k fatigue that many of these women will have to deal with. Her 16:40 (5k) PR proves that she can stick with the top women and if it comes down to a 200 meter sprint at the end, Baran has the best chance to come out on top.

Danielle Page from Tufts, Isabel Cardi from Dickinson, Helen Dolan of Hamline, Fiona Smith of St. Benedict, Aubrie Fisher from Wartburg are all members of the sub-17 club. They all have a fighting chance of duking it out for the last four All-American spots.

---

Men

Brett: It’s really hard to bet against Wilkinson in this scenario, but the major difference here will be that he only gets one day of recovery after the steeple, while the 10k guys get two days of recovery before this final. I still don’t think that’ll make a difference though. His solo 13:58 (5k) was simply absurd. I’ll still peg him as the favorite.

It’ll be tough for a lot of the guys doubling back from the 10k, but I think that many of the main contenders for both have shown they can double well, and kick hard. In that case, it serves Phillip and Moore well, as shown from their impressive 5k/10k double at the OAC meet with hard closes.

Pangallozzi is also a name not to count out, especially with his 3:52 (1500) speed and his overall prowess on the D3 level, and the same notion can be said for Freiburger as well -- they should both fare very well in this race.

For the few fresh guys in this race, being Sam Craig (U. of Chicago), Spencer Moon (Simpson (Iowa)), Maximilian Sparks (Lynchburg), and Jack Whetstone (Emory), this could be their chance to do some damage on the rest of the field doubling back from the 10k. It would not surprise me to see a few of these guys earn All-American spots, even though their seeds are lower.

Hannah: I think this race could go one of two ways. The first way is Matthew Wilkinson and Joe Freiburger break away from the field and have a head-to-head battle, especially over the last mile. Their times of 13:58 and 14:00, respectively, are the class of the field and if they want to run fast, I'm not sure anyone can hang on.

The second way is these guys are tired from their other events and choose to run a tactical race. They save their energy and let someone else in the field lead the charge. Wilkinson and Freiburger would then try and run away with it at the end.

If they do go that way, they might want to watch out for Hunter Moore of Otterbein. He is doubling back from the 10k, but he has some good finishing speed. At the Baldwin Wallace teammate he ran 4:14 in the mile to beat teammate and 1500 national qualifier Cal Yackin.

I am curious how Alex Phillip of John Carroll will race. We all have him in our top-five, with Brett putting him at 2nd. He started the season hot with PRs in the 800, 1500, 5k and 10k in the first three weeks. Unfortunately, over the last month he has DNF’d in three separate races. The only races he did not DNF in May were incredible races against Hunter Moore. He ran 14:30 in the 5k and 29:45 in the 10k at the OAC Championships. He seems to be very up and down and I am not sure what Alex Phillip we are going to get on the line.

Kevin: Matthew Wilkinson vs Joe Freiburger will be one of the most anticipated matchups of the national meet. Wilkinson comes in with a seed time of 13:58, the NCAA #7 All-Time mark in D3 history and Freiburger’s 14:00 is NCAA #11 All-Time in D3 history. I think Wilkinson has an edge here when you consider that his mark was basically a solo effort, and Freiburger had tight competition at all three division levels at the Drake Relays.

This matchup deservedly gets a lot of hype, but don’t underestimate the competitiveness of the pack. Alex Phillip has been relatively quiet, at least when it comes to fast times, since his 14:17 in April. He did win both the 10k and 5k at the Ohio Athletic Conference Championships, but it is unclear what his current fitness level is. It is very possible that he has gained some strength over the past month and will have a shot at the title.

Jared Pangallozzi of Johns Hopkins, while he has only run 14:27, is certainly capable of much more considering his highly impressive 29:20 (10k) mark. Although he comes in seeded at 12th, I would be very surprised if he doesn’t score.

Lucas Mueller is another guy likely to outperform his seed placement, for similar reasons to Pangallozzi. Additionally, he is a highly battle-tested five-time All-American, so his experience should give him some sort of advantage. It will be interesting to see if he and Wilkinson can work together to maximize total team points for Carleton.