Predictions & Previews: 2021 D3 Outdoor National Championships (1500 Meters)

Women

Brett: I’m quite curious to see how the tactics of this final will play out. As Hannah says below, some people may be on their second or third race of the weekend, with some even waiting to contest the 800 final later in the day. Even so, this race will likely play into Emily Pomainville’s hands more likely than not.

However, I do think it would be a big oversight to count out Ella Baran. She’s also got the 5000 after this final, but she’s also got a very solid 2:13 to her name as well, bringing some speed to back her up. In addition, she’s got terrific competitors and teammates in Olshanski and Keklak to do some serious damage in this race. It could be quite likely to see some teammate strategy take place during this final, and if so, it could help maximize their scoring for the Blue Jays.

One name to remember as well is Evie Bultemeyer -- after doing some serious damage in 2020, she’s had a quiet season, getting better and better with each passing race. Her season’s best of 4:32 is not far off of her 4:29 PR, and she’s got some incredible speed to go right along with that. In a tactical setting, I’d see that play into her advantage. She’s definitely an underrated name heading into the championship season.

Hannah: This race features a few women who are doubling in this race and the 800. So by the time they run this final, they will have two prelim races in their legs, with the 800 final an hour and a half after this final. That is not an easy double and I suspect we’ll see more ramifications in the 800 final than we will in this final.

There is a pretty big disparity between Emily Pomainville’s 4:22 and the rest of the field. Pomainville is helped by the fact that Esther Seeland and Parley Hannan have chosen to pursue other events. The next closest seed is Ella Baran from Johns Hopkins at 4:26. Baran is a part of a trio of women from Johns Hopkins are looking to score big points for their team in this event. Therese Olshanski and Ariel Keklak are true veterans who should have no problem navigating prelims and championship final. It is possible for them to go 2-3-4, but it would be a long-shot.

Some women looking to interrupt that John’s Hopkins sweep is Evie Bultemeyer from Trine and Jordan Hurlburt from Rochester. They come in with 4:32.35 and 4:30.32, respectively. They also aren’t racing any other event so their sole focus will be on placing as high as possible in this 1500.

Kevin: The finishing speed of top seed Emily Pomainville is unmatched by anyone in the field. If anybody wants to beat her, they will likely need the pace to be fast early on so that they can try to break her. The issue with that is that it does not look like there are any challengers in the field capable of successfully doing that. It's also been over a month now since she has run a 1500, and she has been getting better as the season has worn on, so her 1500 fitness level may be even beyond what we have seen now.

There's a lot of chalk in my women's 1500 predictions, as everybody in my top-eight is also seeded in the top-eight. However, I think Evie Bultemeyer of Trine and Sydney Packard of WPI are two athletes who will look to finish higher than their seeds.

Packard has been improving throughout the season and looks to be peaking at the right time. Her seasonal best is 4:33 from a couple of weeks ago, which was good enough to earn the eighth seed. Primarily an 800 meter runner, Packard should benefit in a potentially tactical championship race and she should not be discounted among some of these other names just because her season best isn't quite as fast.

Bultemeyer made her return to the track in April and picked up fairly close to where she left off Pre-COVID. She boasts impressive range from the 400 meters up to the 6k on the grass, as well as championship experience, having earned All-American honors four times across all three seasons. Her ability to put on top performances in the clutch has been consistently excellent, so it wouldn't surprise me to see her finish in the top-three and maybe even challenge for the title if other factors go her way.

The three Johns Hopkins women in the field will also be interesting to follow. How many of them can score, and how high? If all three are able to get All-American honors, which looks fairly likely, that will be an incredible team achievement.

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Men

Kevin: The men’s 1500 will be difficult to predict -- the field isn’t quite as fast at the top this year compared to 2019. It is deeper and less top-heavy.

I still believe Gabriel Pommier, who holds the top seed time with a 3:47 run at Benedictine University in early April, is the favorite to win, but any of the 17 athletes entered could win and it would not shock me.

Nicholas Hoffman only has the fifth-fastest seed time, but it was run early in the season and his performances have been consistent, so I like him to take 2nd. Ridderhoff of Washington U. and Frankie Reid of Lewis & Clark both had breakout 3:48 performances at last chance meets and will be in the mix.

Ridderhoff was knocking on the door of a race like that for a little while, so it was good to see him run that fast, and it is time to consider him as a legitimate title contender. Reid running a time like that as a true freshman is extraordinarily impressive, and I have no doubt that he will be a national champion one or more times in the future, but it is not quite his time yet.

Travis Martin from Trinity (CT) is also somebody to watch, despite only having the tenth-fastest seed time. He has only run two collegiate 1500 marks in his career, and one of them was a 3:50.18. He has also won every individual race he has competed in, not falling to anybody in official competition since March of 2020. His 1:51 800 speed is another edge he will have over some of the field if the race comes down to a kick. Martin certainly has the potential to make things interesting at the front.

Brett: I’ll play Devil’s Advocate here and advocate for Jacob Ridderhoff of Wash U. He’s been a national contender ever since the ill-fated 2020 indoor season and this spring has only shown that he’s continued to stay on that level. His 3:48.88 win this past weekend at Augustana was done in convincing fashion over a very talented field. He’ll be ready to take on the likes of Pommier for a great battle over 1500 meters.

Ian Pierson is another guy whose stock has been increasing in the 2021 season, earning himself the sixth seed coming into the national meet. Only allowed to compete against fellow Ohio Athletic Conference teams throughout the regular season, this will be a terrific opportunity for Pierson to strut his stuff against the rest of D3. Running 3:49 right at the end of the season bodes well for his success this weekend.

Frankie Reid (Lewis & Clark), Ryan Harvey (Loras), and Wil Houser (Wash U.) are all true freshmen who have qualified for the national meet in this event. I’m very curious to see what these guys all run in their first go on the national scene, especially considering that these guys did not have high school state meet opportunities in 2020. Reid in particular is coming in as the third seed, which is extremely impressive, along with Harvey as the eighth seed.

Hannah: I have picked Gabriel Pommier to grab the 1500 title. He’s come out in 2021 and set PRs in the 800 and 1500. Although his PR is from early April, over the last month he has run 3:50 or faster three times. That consistency will serve him well over the two days in North Carolina.

I think this race is set up for upsets. After Pommier, seeds 2nd through 17th are separated by only two seconds. I won’t be surprised if we see a few double digit seeds make the final.

An interesting note about this race is that Wartburg is vying for a team title, so they will need Matt Heinzman to grab as many points as he can. He comes in ranked at ninth, but is less than a second out of the fourth seed.

The American Rivers Conference champion has had a great year, dropping six seconds from his previous 1500 PR to run a 3:50.15. He has some 800 speed, running 1:53.18 this year, which could also serve him well, although it isn’t the fastest 800 PR in the field. That title belongs to Travis Martin of Trinity with his 1:51.25.

For Heinzman, his goal will be to make the final and score as many points as he can for the Knights.