Predictions & Previews: 2021 D3 Outdoor National Championships (800 Meters)

Women

Hannah: This is probably the race that I am most excited for this weekend. It is possible that the Division 3 record of 2:00.62 could be challenged. This season we have seen Esther Seeland run the NCAA #2 All-Time performance (behind Emily Richards) while Emily Pomainville has run the NCAA #4 All-Time performance (behind Richards, Seeland, and Christy Cazzola). They lead the division by over five seconds, and barring disaster in prelims, both are favorites to go 1-2.

Sydney Packard will have something to say about it, though. Packard has run 2:06.54 indoors, so she has the potential to run faster than her seed time, but we just haven’t seen her hit those same marks yet this year. She is slowly rounding into form as her last race she ran 2:09 at the NEICAAA Championships. Most years that would make her a favorite, but this year that is only good enough for third, nationally.

After Seeland, Pomainville, and Packard there are six athletes that are within one second of each other so it will be kind of a toss up to see who can nab the last five All-American spots.

Kevin: Last week, Esther Seeland and Emily Pomainville faced off at the Trials of Miles NYC Qualifier in a matchup of two of the greatest 800 runners in the history of Division 3. Seeland won the heat in 2:02, while Pomainville matched her career best of 2:04.

Any other year we would be talking about Pomainville as the overwhelming favorite, but she unfortunately is faced with a herculean task. She will also be doubling back from a 1500, while Seeland will be fresh, so I really only see the rematch going one way.

Pomainville will get her national title, but it won’t be in the 800. She should be able to hold on for second, but don’t be too surprised if Sydney Packard and others keep her close by.

On another note, the two MIAC athletes in the field, Josie Herrmann and Alexandra Maddux, seem poised to outperform their seedings and earn All-American honors. Both of their season bests came at the MIAC Championships, where Herrmann won in 2:11.67 and Maddux was second in 2:12.68. What makes these times more impressive is the fact that they opened in 67, then closed with a significant negative split, suggesting they are both capable of more than that.

Brett: This is going to be one heck of a race. This, along with the men’s 10k, are the races I’m personally most excited for this weekend. As both Hannah and Kevin have made clear, Esther Seeland and Emily Pomainville are having career seasons in the 800. Their battle at the Trials of Miles this past weekend was a great setup for what’s to come at Nationals!

Even so, I think Sydney Packard is extremely underrated right now. Coming into this weekend, she has not lost a race since February of 2020 and has been running fantastically, nevertheless. She’s already run 2:09 this season, which is already an incredible mark, but I’m super excited to see how she fares against the two "big dogs" of the women’s 800.

If the race gets out hard, it’ll play in the hands of Seeland, Pomainville and Packard. However, with this being the national meet, we very well could see a tactical affair on our hands. Pretty much all of our All-American predictions have some good speed to their names, so the final could prove to be deadly if tactical.

---

Men

Brett: This is Mike Jasa’s race to lose. His only loss this season in an 800 final was to fellow Duhawk, Carter Oberfoell, in an early-season battle. Since then, Jasa has been utterly dominant, throwing down a staggering 1:50.00 to lead D3. His remarkable 400 speed will serve him well in the championship setting, favoring him to take home the national title.

Dalton Martin and Steven Potter are two dudes that bring some serious competition to Jasa’s reign, but I’m really curious about Isaac Alderfer from Eastern Mennonite. He’s had a nice rise to the upper levels of D3 in 2021, running two to three events per meet for most of the season. Then, in his final regular season race, Alderfer ran 1:50.61 to put him at NCAA #4 on the D3 leaderboard. This will be his first taste of the national meet which will be very exciting to see as he opted not to double back in the 1500, leaving the 800 as his main race.

Ben Kuxmann of Milikin has been another rising star in the 800 this year, bringing his 80 best from 1:53 down to 1:50 this season. Now, an interesting factoid about Kuxmann is that he hasn’t run an 800 since his conference meet, but rather run three consecutive weeks of 4x400 relays. It’ll be interesting to see if this apparent focus towards speed will help him well over the finishing stages of the prelims and finals.

Hannah: Mike Jasa was our unanimous pick to win, but you can hear more about that from Brett and Kevin. I want to focus a little bit on the team implications this race could have. UW Oshkosh and Wartburg are two of the top 3 teams heading into this national meet. USTFCCCA has Wartburg ranked #1 and Oshkosh #3.

Oshkosh has junior Steven Potter seeded third coming in with a 1:50.39. Potter ran that 1:50 at one of the last chance meets at North Central. That comes after he won the WIAC Championships in the 800 and 1500. He has the strength from the 1500 to hold on to a fast pace and if it comes down to a sprint, he has a listed 400 PR of 50.33.

For Wartburg they will be looking to have sophomore Dalton Martin score some big points for them. He is coming in seeded fifth with a 1:50.94. The difference between the first and fifth seeds is less than a second, so it will be a close race. If it does come down to speed, Martin falters a bit as his 400 PR is 51.97. Of course, we’ve seen it time and time again where team title hopes propel individuals to faster times than we can imagine.

I give the edge to Potter while Brett and Kevin have given it to Martin.

Kevin: After continuing his momentum from the indoor season into the spring, Mike Jasa is definitely the favorite to win the national title in the 800. He has run the fastest time in the country so far, with a 1:50.00 in mid-April, and he has also run 48.54 for the 400. Regardless of whether this race is fast from the gun or comes down to a hard last 200, Jasa will have the edge over other competitors.

That’s not to say that nobody will make it difficult for him. Fellow American Rivers Athlete Dalton Martin of Wartburg is who I am giving the best chance to pull off the upset. He has experience racing at National Championships, earning All-American status at the 2019 indoor national meet, as well as impressive strength for an 800 runner, having run 14:38 for the 5k. Martin has also raced Jasa multiple times this season and while he hasn’t gotten the better of him, he has provided some interesting battles and will no doubt will be in the mix.

One athlete that may surprise some people, at least based on seeds, is Hamilton’s Lucas Wright. He is only seeded 10th, but that must be taken with a grain of salt considering that only 0.13 of a second separates the 6th through 10th seed. Additionally most of Wright’s races this season came in dual meets or tri-meets, where some athletes in this field have run their season bests against large, competitive fields. The senior holds a career best of 1:50.51 from 2019 and he has raced at multiple national meets, but has yet to make a final, so he will be hungry to change that.