Predictions & Previews: 2021 D2 Outdoor National Championships (Steeplechase)

Women

John: We can talk about Eilish Flanagan as much as you want, but it’s rather obvious that this race is hers to lose. She holds a 40-second lead over Hannah Roeske who currently holds the second-fastest time this year in the event. I would be shocked if anyone pushed Flanagan to the end, and even more shocked if someone found a way to upset her.

That being said, the race for 2nd place should be rather interesting as Roeske and Alexa Leppelmeier have run 10:19 and 10:21, respectively, and they should lead the race for 2nd place. The caveat here is that the steeple is solely a final and that changes the narrative of the race quite a bit.

Adams State’s Haleigh Hunger Galvan enters as my sleeper pick in the race after running the seventh-fastest time this season. The Grizzly senior ran 10:31 at the Drake Relays, a two-second personal best over her time at the 2019 NCAA Outdoor Championships. Galvan has championship experience and will be looking to score major points for the Adams State Grizzlies as they pursue a team title.

Those also in the running include Jenna Keiser (Saginaw Valley State) and Stevie Lawrence (Queens (N.C.)). These two have the next fastest marks at 10:26 and hold a four-second gap over the rest of the field (including Hunter-Galvan), making them the next obvious picks for All-American contention.

Keiser had a strong indoor season and has peaked at the right time. She beat Lawrence at the Lee Last Chance Meet by less than three-tenths of a second. That’s enough for me to believe that the race for 2nd to 8th will be worth watching after Flanagan decides to make her decisive move.

Eric: I fully agree with John here and unless some sort of major mishap happens, Flanagan should secure the 10 points for the Grizzlies.

The real race will be for the top-three as it should be between Walsh’s Alexa Leppelmeier, Adams States’ HaLeigh Hunter-Galvan and Grand Valley State’s Hannah Roeske. These three all have the necessary experience needed to challenge for the podium spots.

Leppelmeier is your 2021 G-MAC champion in the steeple and has raced a multitude of events this season (1500, 3k steeple, 5k) giving her the necessary strength and speed to be successful. Not to mention that she has set new personal bests in every one, making her dangerous from a momentum standpoint.

She was an All-American in the 3k during indoors, so we will see if jumping over a bunch of barriers is going to inhibit her in her quest to take home another All-American honor.

Hunter-Galvan is back this season after not having competed since the COVID-19 shortened indoor season. In her time back, she set a new personal best in the steeple with a time of 10:31 and looked very good doing it. Not to mention she took home the RMAC title in the same event, so I’d say that she’s back.

A lot of people were surprised when Hannah Roeske took Celine Ritter to the line in the indoor 3k. I, for one, can’t say I was surprised as she was already a Division 3 All-American and just needed that extra push in order to be the best version of herself. Enter Grand Valley State’s distance machine and now Roeske is running the best she ever has. She’s again set new personal bests in whatever event she’s run, be it the 1500, 3k steeple or 5k. A confident Hannah Roeske is a dangerous Hannah Roeske.

Nate: Evidently, there is a run-away favorite here that we have to address by the name of Eilish Flanagan. It’ll be interesting to see how she approaches things when the gun goes off, but she could very well get away with just taking off and grinding it out. Eilish has proven that she’s strong enough to do that.

The rest of the field is a different matter. While Eilish has separated herself, everyone else is about as packed as can be. Hannah Roeske currently sits as the top challenger in the seedings. She was the runner-up finisher at the indoor 3k given her the credentials, and her 1500 meter speed and strength gives her the tools to be majorly successful.

Walsh’s Alexa Leppelmeier will also look to contend and try to close the gap with Roeske. Ever since she first sprang up on everyone’s radar, Leppelmeier has refused to go away and it’ll likely be more of the same at the Big Dance. Saginaw Valley’s Jenna Keiser and Lee’s (Tenn.) Toni Moore are also runners to look out for here.

Keiser may not floor anyone outright with her marks in other events, but she’s managed to put things together just right for the steeple. She has also peaked at the right time, securing her PR and ticket to this race on the last weekend of qualifying.

Toni Moore is right with Keiser in the momentum department, just barely missing out on a triple crown at the Gulf South Championships in early May. Moore did walk away with a PR in this event though. The time away from racing the steeple could allow this Lee runner to race fresh and make another leap forward.

---

Men

John: I’m the lone one not picking Christian Noble in his primary event this weekend and that’s alright by me. It’s not that I don’t think Noble is capable of winning, it’s just that this is the deepest field we have ever seen in a Division 2 steeplechase, and it’s a single final. I really like what I have seen from Western’s Taylor Stack this season and I think with some elite competition in this event, he’ll have a chance to snag an NCAA title.

Of course, he will have to go through Noble, who recently threw down a strong 8:35 to end his competitive season before the NCAA Championships. Noble showed us during the indoor season that he knows how to race in any kind of setting and I don't expect that to change. He’ll likely look to stalk the leaders and make his move at the right time.

We can’t discount Caleb Futter (Grand Valley State), Nicodemus Rotich (TAMU-Commerce) and Leakey Kipkosegi (American International) in this event either. Futter has announced his presence in this event after an okay indoor track season. Rotich ran 8:50 all the way back in March. Kipkosgei was the D2 NCAA Champion in 2019 and has run 8:44 in this event.

Simply put, all three of these men bring an exciting spark to this race.

Northwest Missouri's Reece Smith was the biggest surprise this season and might be the biggest surprise of the weekend when it's all said and done. The Bearcat athlete ran his first three steeples of his career and eventually broke 8:50. Meanwhile, Noble’s teammate Thomas Kelton finally broke 9:00 at the Gulf South Championships, only to follow that up with a sub-8:50 mark at Lee’s Last Chance meet.

This will likely come down to how well Noble feels, and unfortunately for the rest of the field, it’ll also be his first race of the weekend, allowing him to work as hard as necessary to take home the title. Even so, don’t be surprised if he’s pushed to the brink this time around. He’s up against some of the best he’s ever seen in his career and they’ll all be hunting him as well.

Eric: This may be a little näive of me, but I really only think it’s going to be a two-man race. It’s going to come down to Christian Noble of Lee (Tenn.) and Taylor Stack of Western Colorado. And that’s why I have this race circled on the men's side as one to watch.

Sure, the steeple is unpredictable, and watching these races over the years tells me literally anything can happen, so that’s why if it’s not going to be Noble or Stack I can see Reece Smith (NW Missouri) or Caleb Futter (GVSU) taking home the crown.

This is Noble’s race that he’s been training for all year long, so I don’t know why he would try to keep it close. I would think he would just go really hard the first three laps to create a gap and then focus on getting over every barrier after that. The only person capable of stopping Noble is Noble, so that’s why he’s my pick to win.

Taylor Stack will benefit a lot from having the steeple be a finals only race this year. This will give him a serious shot at taking down Noble and set himself up quite nicely for the 5k the next day. His 8:54 steeple to win the RMAC Championships broke a 25-year old meet record by five seconds, plus it was at 4800 feet. I’d like to see what he can do at sea level as this will be his shot to bring some hardware back to Gunnison.

Nate: At first, it seemed like Christian Noble would be able to stroll in and win this without much worry, but things have changed. That’s not to say that Noble isn’t still the favorite to take the steeple crown, he is who I have penciled in after all.

Noble is the front-runner. It's hard to bet against the lone runner in the field who's on the verge of qualifying for the U.S. Olympic Trials. But not too far behind him is Western Colorado veteran Taylor Stack.

Stack was right in the thick of things in the indoor 3k and 5k championship races, living up to his resume as a multi-time All-American. Stack’s spot in the seedings make him Noble’s top challenger (as does his experience), but there's a ton of younger guys who could play a big role in this race.

Grand Valley State’s Caleb Futter is only in his first year of competing for the Lakers after redshirting, and he’s carried the same energy that he's had from indoors to the outdoor oval. Making it to this race alone is impressive, but he’s thrown his hat firmly in the ring, sitting right on Stack’s tail when it comes to seed time.

Futter also made an honest go at Noble at Lee’s Last Chance meet. While he came up short, he was the second collegiate finisher behind Noble in a field that included Division 1 runners and professionals. This frosh can race.

Nicodemus Rotich (TAMU-Commerce) didn’t get to see the lights of the big stage during the indoor track season. However, he’s getting that chance this week. Rotich, admittedly, has trailed off somewhat in his last three races, but before that, had won five straight.

In my mind, it's better to get those “off” days out of the way in those races rather than this one. If he can recapture some of that same rhythm that he had earlier in the season, then Rotich can make some waves, even in this field.