Predictions & Previews: 2021 D2 Outdoor National Championships (5000 Meters)

Women

John: Here we are again talking about a Flanagan sisters. This time, it’s Roisin, and to be honest, I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw the sisters go 1-2 in this event. Sure, I’ve got Eilish picked to finish 2nd in this race, but given the fact that the steeple is a final and she doesn't have to go through a preliminary round, she could very well be fresh enough to take home the title as well.

Making a strong push for the title will be Azusa Pacific’s Jennifer Sandoval, Lee’s Celine Ritter and U-Mary’s Ida Narbuvoll. Those three enter the race with a 12-second cushion on the next athlete (16:15) and will look to push the Grizzly sisters to the edge. Ritter likely poses the biggest threat as she holds the fastest 1500 time out of the three and if the race plays out competitively, then she can likely hold off the rest of the field.

Keep an eye of Edniboro’s Stefanie Parsons as she actually holds the fastest time in the 1500 out of the entire group of runners racing the 5000 this weekend. The only concern is that she’ll have to move through a preliminary of the 1500 and then a final before she actually reaches the starting line of this 12.5 lap race. She could be the biggest threat to the aforementioned five athletes ahead of her if the race does become a tactical affair.

If it’s not a tactical affair, expect the likes of Ida Narbuvoll to find herself near the front. The hard-running Marauder impressed in every facet this season and that will hope to translate that to the oval in Michigan this weekend. I would not be surprised at all to see Narbuvoll hammer the pace right from the gun to see if anyone has some legs left at the end of the weekend. If she does indeed do that, we will likely see a gutsy, painful race to the finish line.

Eric: A fresh Roisin Flanagan is going to be hard to beat, right? And what about a steeple race in which Eilish could surge away from the field early and never really be tested? These two women from Adams State should run the show, right?

Yes, there’s a pretty big possibility that the Flanagan sisters go 1-2, but there's another school of thought where Celine Ritter (Lee (Tenn.)) or Jennifer Sandoval (Azusa Pacific) win.

Celine Ritter should be able to go toe-to-toe with a fresh Roisin Flangan as we explored the possibility of a rested Celine Ritter being equal to Eilish Flangan earlier in the year in a rankings article on April 22nd. I still think the narrative rings true for Ritter being equal to either sister. And in case you forgot, she was the indoor 3k national champion, so she’s very capable of holding her own in these fields, especially when she only has one event to run.

Sandoval will be doubling back from the 10k, a race in which she will be favored in, but the 5k at Nationals is the same type of event the 4x400 was in high school -- it requires whatever you have left. With the 5k being a largely aerobic event and half the distance of the 10k, I do like Sandoval's chances.

Nate: I have to start with the Flanagan sisters here as that’s who everyone is going to have their eyes on. More specifically, I have to start with Roisin. She’s the class of the field with a 15:47 seed time. She’s dominated the middle distances in the past, so we know there’s serious speed in her racing arsenal. Plus, when the race rolls around, Roisin will have fresh legs. However this 5k unfolds, the odds are in her favor.

Eilish is also a strong contender. She’s cracked the 16-minute barrier and is behind only Roisin in seeding. Her legs won’t be as fresh after racing the 3k steeple the day prior, but she’s plenty fit and will have a night to rest. Regardless, both Flanagan sisters will have to work for it with the likes of Celine Ritter (Lee (Tenn.)) and Jennifer Sandoval (Azusa Pacific) also racing.

At one point, it seemed like this was going to be Ritter’s race to lose. The Lee (Tenn.) product was the first to crack 16 minutes early on. Coming off of her indoor 3k title too, it was hard to bet against her (and it still is). Ritter has proven that she can win on the big stage and that she has a ton of range. She can drop down all the way to the 800 meters, so leg speed is no issue. If this race becomes tactical, Ritter has the tools and savvy to manage and navigate around the field. If it’s honest, she’s a prime suspect to win since she’ll be fresh.

Jennifer Sandoval is another strong contender as John and Eric have pointed out, but the Azusa Pacific senior aside, there’s also Stefanie Parsons (Edinboro) and Florance Uwajeneza (West Texas A&M) to look at. Parsons may be on the outside looking in with seeding, but it’s no secret that she’s elite and has a knack for scoring high and racing well.

Florance Uwajeneza is also an intriguing dark horse. She was the indoor 5k runner-up and was the only one remotely close to U-Indy’s Lauren Bailey in that race. While she hasn’t quite tapped into that same gear during outdoors, she hasn’t really needed to. As for her racing slate at Nationals, she’ll have a full day to recover and double back from the 10k, so it shouldn’t impact her drastically. Don’t be surprised if she makes it into the top-five.

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Men

Eric: With the 5k being the last distance event of the championships, this race is more so "who is the most fresh" and not "who’s the favorite". Nobody is that much faster than the rest of the field. However, I’ve got my eyes on the defending indoor 5k champion in Christian Noble (Lee Tenn.)), Isaac Harding (GVSU) and Dylan Ko (Colorado Mines).

With Noble putting 100% of his effort into trying to qualify for the U.S. Olympic Trials in the steeplechase, he's only run the 5k twice this season. However, at the Gulf South Championships, he ran multiple events to simulate the national meet and although he didn’t win them all (2nd in the 5k), it gave him a good taste of how he would feel at these championships. So, I’m of the opinion that since he’s the indoor 5k champion, you can never count him out and that he's favored for the win.

Harding will be doubling back from the 10k, but so will Ko. If you remember from indoors, Harding ran a masterful double at the national meet, taking Noble to the brink in both events. He’s gotta be thinking that this race -- if not the 10k that he’s going to race before this one -- is going to be the race in which he wins his first national title. He’s that close to doing so.

The one thing you have to remember with Colorado School of Mines runners is that no matter what, they will come to race. By that logic, Dylan Ko is ready for the 5k/10k double and should be a major factor in both despite running two events over the course of two meets all season long. He ran one 5k and then a 10k one week apart to get national qualifying times.

Yeah, that’s a confident runner if I’ve seen one.

John: It feels a bit odd picking Enael Woldemichael to double back and take home the 5k title after he races the 10k two days prior. It wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen someone come back to win the 5k after the 10k. But if we look back at Woldemichael’s past, he already has a 2nd place finish in this event (2018) and was 3rd during the indoor season that same year. I think he’s still got some magic up his sleeve and we’ll see it on full display on Saturday afternoon.

This is going to be a painful race. With most of these athletes doubling back, (Woldemichael, Stack, Isaac Harding, Tanner Chada, Noble) it leaves those who are fresh (Luke Julian, Carson Bix, Ryan Riddle) to hammer away at the pace immediately. I think we’ll know who our All-American are before the first mile is over.

This is an extremely deep field with 16 men who have hit the automatic qualifying mark of 13:55. I don’t think there is any way to easily win this race.

Luke Julian is an interesting athlete entered in the field. Having run 13:52 shows us that he’s got the strength to run with the field if it does wind up in pace. He also has the luxury of having some of the best foot speed in this field as well. If it comes down to a tactical race, there’s a very good chance that he will be able to out-kick the rest of the field.

Again, I’d be remiss if I didn’t talk about the rest of the Grand Valley State boys. Harding comes in with the fastest seed time and it’ll be interesting to see how he responds to having run the 10k two days earlier. The same can be said for his teammate Chada.

We’ve seen the same magic from Chada in 2019 where he finished 2nd as a true freshman. These two are going to be right there with Woldemichael and the three of them working together could prove deadly for everyone else.

Nate: I knew this 5k had a lot of moving parts to it, but then I looked at our picks after they were in and my goodness is this complicated. The 5k is the last open distance event of the weekend and it’s going to be a battle royale of sorts. I’m loving it already.

A number of these guys are doubling up in events, and rightfully so. Noble has a track record (pun intended) of delivering in any race at any meet he lines up for. On this stage, he has a giant target on his back, and I think this is the time that someone gets him.

I think that "someone" is Grand Valley State’s Isaac Harding. This will be the time that Harding overcomes his proverbial kryptonite in Noble. For one, Harding is the top seed. Secondly, Harding lost in the indoor 3k and 5k, finishing as runner-up in both. This will be the third time that these two go head-to-head on the national stage and it is hard to beat someone three times in a row.

But I don’t even have Noble as the runner-up. I’m giving that to CSU-Pueblo’s Marcelo Laguera simply on the grounds that Laguera will have had more time to recover from his double than Noble. Even then, that’s not really much to go off of, but it came to that for me since everyone in this field is just that good.

Laguera has found himself on this stage before doing the same double and earned All-American nods in both races back then. Laguera has gone toe-to-toe with big names before and hasn’t backed down. Of course, the same applies to just about everyone else in the field, even the younger guys. The difference is that Laguera has both the experience and the accolades.

CarLee Stimpfel (Saginaw Valley) is the second seed. He fell a little short with his double at th NCAA Indoor Championships, but shook that off to climb to the top of the outdoor circuit.

Jan Lukas Becker (Queens (N.C.)) was an All-American at this same distance indoors. Ditto for Loic Scomparin (Colorado Mines) who also earned All-American honors for the 3k this indoor season.

Then there’s NW Missouri’s Ryan Riddle who appeared to be a miler before flexing his versatility this spring and making the jump up to this event. Riddle has strength and more than enough speed to upend the front-runners late in this race. It legitimately wouldn’t be much of a shock to see anybody in this field come out on top.