Predictions & Previews: 2021 D2 Outdoor National Championships (1500 Meters)

Women

Sam: Similar to the 800, there are two individuals who stand out among this field. Stefanie Parsons (Edinboro) and Natalia Novak (Academy of Art) are the only two who have broken 4:20 this season and both did it with ease. Parsons comes in having run 4:17 and Novak in 4:18, putting a gap of two to three seconds on the rest of the field.

It’s hard to bet against Parsons when you look at her outdoor season. She has not lost a race to a collegiate this season and is coming off her 1500 personal best which she set last weekend. If there’s a knock here, it’s that her 4:17 stands out as an outlier, which makes it worth asking if she can replicate a similar run this weekend.

Novak has lost this season, but not in a 1500 to fellow D2 competitors. She won PacWest titles in the 800 and 1500, solidly navigating multiple prelim rounds which bodes well heading into the NCAA Championships. Novak opted to step down in distance to the 800 and the 4x400 at the APU Last Chance Twilight meet, an interesting choice given that she ended up in the 1500 this weekend.

If there’s only one concern about Novak, it’s that she has never raced at a national track meet.

Now, while their times have been a bit slower, there’s a slew of heavy-hitting veterans right behind these two. Elysia Burgos (Southwest Baptist), Celine Ritter (Lee (Tenn.)), and Allie Ludge (GVSU) are all certain to be factors in this race. Ritter was phenomenal during indoors and while this isn’t her best event, she is capable of winning it. Ludge has been one of the most feared milers in Division 2 over the years and despite 2021 not being her best, she should not be overlooked.

Oh, and remember Stephanie Cotter? Although the Adams State sensation has not run particularly fast this spring (only 4:23), she owns two mile titles and is the reigning 1500 champion. She just won the RMAC title in this event and will likely have all eyes on her in what will be her last D2 effort before heading to Northern Arizona. If betting on track was legal, Cotter would be the one to put your money on.

Eric: I’ve been around the D2 scene long enough to know not to pick against Stephanie Cotter so that’s that...until I realized that Celine Ritter is doing both the 5k and 1500 instead of just the 5k.

In any case, I still have Ritter finishing 2nd as she’s as talented as they come and will really want to finish her career on a high note. Granted, she looked better in the first-half of this season in comparison to the second-half, but now all the academic stress is behind her and she can solely concentrate on racing at the level that she’s used to.

I think the 1500 is Natalia Novak’s best event and the race in which she has the best shot of finishing on the proverbial podium (top-four). Her time of 4:18 is a nice personal best and her 2:09 (800) speed makes her dangerous, especially in a more tactical race like the 1500 final.

I really feel like Allie Ludge is the elder statesman around the D2 middle distance scene. This will be her sixth appearance at a national meet on the track and she has really proven that’s she a lock to be an All-American year-in and year-out. The only knock on her is that she hasn’t won a national title yet, but with the national meet being on her home track, could we see some home track magic?

Nate: I fully plan to have popcorn ready for this 1500 meter final. The combination of speed and race-winning ability in this field is off the charts, making it almost impossible to count anybody out.

Eric and Sam summed it up pretty well, you can’t count out Stephanie Cotter (Adams State). Sure, she hasn’t seemed up to her normal standard this outdoor season, but we've been through this before. Everyone pointed that out as recently as this past indoor season and guess what? Cotter still won the mile title.

This is far from her first rodeo and every time she steps up to the line on this stage, she delivers. Despite saying all of that, I just can’t pick against Stefanie Parsons (Edinboro).

I know, I know, Cotter delivers on this stage all the time. But you know who’s delivered in every race this outdoor season? Stefanie Parsons. The only race Parsons didn’t win was a 5k and even then, she took 2nd place with a 30-second PR.

Parsons’ 1500 meter record this season? Zero losses and the top seed-time heading into Nationals. If anyone can upend Cotter, it’s the runner with the Midas touch: Stefanie Parsons. She will, however, have some strong challengers.

After not contesting an open event indoors, Elysia Burgos (Southwest Baptist) is back in business, returning to the national stage as an individual in this 1500 meter field. Burgos earned a big 800 meter PR earlier this season, breaking the 2:10 barrier. That says that she’s reached a new level in the speed department, and she’s always been plenty strong at this distance. Burgos also has the resume to prove it, having made it to this meet for the 1500 meters and the mile during indoors.

There’s also Lee’s Celine Ritter to think about. Ritter has more than enough strength to easily pass the eye test: a national title (see: 2021 indoor 3k), a collegiate record (see: 2021 indoor 3k again), and is one of only six women to get the auto-mark here. More importantly, though, she has the confidence to back it all up.

It takes at least a drop of confidence to race as well as she has, and much more to opt to double up in events at the national meet as she is also entered in the 5k. Ritter is one of the more fit contenders here, it’ll just come down to whether or not she can hit a high enough gear to overtake the others at the end. Her 2:11 (800) PR suggests that she just might.

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Men

John: A single final for what I find to be the best race to watch on NCAA weekend is not ideal. However, we are going to see one hell of a race on Saturday. Every athlete who is entered will be coming into the race fresh and will have their targets set on trying to muster out a victory.

They’ll have to go through James Young to do it, though. Young has thrown down the NCAA #2 All-Time and NCAA #3 All-Time fastest 1500 marks in D2 history this season and has taken down quite a few big names in the process. Meanwhile, Tony Torres finds himself in a familiar place as the runner-up from indoors in the mile will be looking to make amends on the outdoor circuit. He’s only ran 3:44 at sea-level this season, but that was the weekend after conference and more of a tune-up than an indication of where his fitness is actually at.

Shane Bracken might be the biggest challenger when it’s all said and done. He’s got the second-fastest raw time in the country and has been an All-American in this race prior to this year. The last time out he ran 3:41 and set a personal best in the same effort. It will be a day short of a month since the last time we saw him and depending on how much fitness he’s gained, he might have a shot at knocking off Young if the Academy of Art ace has an off day.

Keep an eye on Calahan Warren as well. We've already talked about him this season and his range in terms of events. He’s settled on what I thought would be his best event and he’s easily got enough firepower in his legs to come out and make a run at the title. He raced four times at the GNAC Championships just two weeks ago, so it’ll be interesting to see how he bounces back from that. But given the fact he only has one race this weekend, he shouldn’t have to worry about much.

Other names to watch include Benoit Campion (American International), Benjamin Allen (Concordia-St. Paul), Alec Hall (Adams State), and Maston Strader (Pittsburg State).

Campion and Allen would have likely been talked about more if they had been able to race at the 2020 NCAA Indoor Championships as that’s when their stock was rising the most. We’ve seen what Strader can do as he was the anchor leg for the Gorillas on their championship winning DMR team from this season. Meanwhile, Hall burned the track up in Pueblo the last time we saw him. If he can have that same kind of race this weekend, he’ll find himself as an All-American.

Eric: James Young is too good to pick against. Running a 3:37 and almost breaking David Ribich’s D2 1500 record is no joke. That said, it's fair to say that he will be pushed by Tony Torres of Colorado Mesa and Shane Bracken of Saint Leo.

Tory Torres is very familiar with James Young as he was less than half a second from being the indoor mile champ. You have to think he’s done a lot of thinking to try to find how he could’ve come up with 0.46 of a second. Trust me, he’s not going to let it get this close this time around. With times of 1:51 for 800 and 3:44 for 1500, it really seems as if he’s peaking at just the right time.

Shane Bracken has been off for just about a month now. No conference championships, no last chance races, just good ole fashion hard work. Will this strategy pan out for the junior or will someone who has run in a last chance meet have all the momentum? Stay tuned!

Nate: The only appropriate point to start here with this race is James Young. The Academy of Art runner has convincingly established himself as the title favorite. Young holds the top seed time as the only runner under the 3:40-barrier, has won on the national stage (at roughly the same distance), and has won every race he’s been in this outdoor season. Of course, there are some guys who will give Young a run for his money.

One of the more obvious choices as a challenger is Saint Leo’s Shane Bracken. He’s the second seed sitting just on the other side of the 3:40 barrier. However, Bracken also has experience in these exact same circumstances, having a 1500 meter All-American honor to his name. He also has the leg speed to hang with just about anyone in a kick with a 1:50 PR for 800 meters. He can’t afford any errors though since it’s a straight final. And I wouldn’t be surprised if someone like Tony Torres (Colorado Mesa) disrupts Bracken’s efforts to upset Young.

John and Eric have mentioned it already, but Tony Torres will most likely be here on a revenge campaign. Torres made an amazing run at Young, taking him all the way to the wire at the NCAA Indoor Championship and falling short by fractions of a second. Torres has made the leap into the national picture and will definitely make his presence known in this 1500 meter final. He’s proven the conversion factor shouldn’t encourage anyone to count him out. He’s the real deal.

Also keep an eye on Western Washington’s Calahan Warren and American International’s Benoit Campion. Warren punched his ticket here with a top mark from the start of the season. The fact that it stood the test of time should speak for itself. While Warren admittedly hit a slump in the middle of the season, he seems to be rounding back into form just in time. We’ve seen Warren do it all this year at a decent level, and this distance seems to be his best. Don’t let it be a big surprise if he shakes things up.

As for Benoit Campion, just about every race he’s taken a big stride forward. His seed time may not be the fastest, but he likely hasn’t shown everything he has. He just recently earned a 1:50 800 meter PR, and his time in the 1500 meters this year is a four-second PR. Campion has the speed and talent to earnestly challenge this field.