Predictions & Previews: 2021 D2 Outdoor National Championships (10,000 Meters)

Women

John: I really like Ida Narbuvoll in this race and that’s not taking anything away from the likely favorite of Jennifer Sandoval, but speaks more to Narbuvoll’s talent level. After narrowly missing out on All-American honors in previous NCAA meets, she’s on track to take home at least one top-eight finish this weekend. In a race where it’s more of a grind than anything else, it’s worth noting that Narbuvoll capped her regular season off with a new PR in the 1500 of 4:26. That gives her a tactical element that some of the other women don’t have as she can bide her time and hopefully run away with the title with a lap or two to go.

We mentioned Sandoval, the APU athlete who has the fastest time this season by more than 30 seconds. On paper, she’s the favorite and she’s got personal bests to back it up as well. The biggest question will be how she competes against the rest of the D2 field. She just finished 18th at The American Track League: Track Meet where she ran 15:58 which bodes well for improving upon her 10k time if necessary.

Lauren Bailey raced once this outdoor season and narrowly lost out to Jennifer Comastri in that 10k just a couple weekends ago. We knew Bailey would enter the national contender conversation if she did indeed run, but Comastri might be the biggest sleeper of the weekend. The Southern Indiana star has quietly moved up the ranks and now finds herself with the third-fastest time in the country this season (33:53). However, that’s still nearly a minute slower than Sandoval’s best mark.

All of this is going to depend on the type of race. If it goes out hard, we are likely looking at just a couple of athletes who will be able to go with the leaders. If it doesn’t go out hard, then the likes of Kaylee Bogina, Florence Uwanjaneza, Brianna Robles, and Jessica Gockley all have improved chances of crossing the finish line first.

Eric: I agree with John and Nate that this race should be between Narbuvoll, Bailey and Sandoval. However, I like Jennifer Sandoval in this one mostly due to her 10k at Bryan Clay being a “breakthrough race” in my eyes. That result finally confirmed to her (and us) that all her hard work is finally paying dividends. Plus, her time is more than 30 seconds ahead of Narbuvoll which, if she runs it right, should play into her advantage.

I’m just going to put this out there: Ida Narbuvoll has been red hot since she started racing in mid-April. Over the course of this last month, you could argue that she’s been the best D2 runner during this outdoor season as she hasn’t lost. Yes, you could argue that Eilish or Roisin Flanagan (Adams State) or Jennifer Sandoval (Azusa Pacific) have faster times, but in terms of the eye test, Narbuvoll has been outstanding. I wouldn’t want to toe the line next to her as she’s got the “it” factor right now.

After being involved in a car accident in the beginning of April, Lauren Bailey could’ve called it a season. Luckily, she only sustained minor injuries and was able to really work during physical therapy to get back to the point where she could race.

So, Bailey laced up her spikes and toed the line about a week ago in the 10k.

However, the Indy star wasn’t there to just run the 10k, she was there to run a national qualifying time in the 10k and boy did she! She finished just two seconds behind Southern Indiana’s Jennifer Comastri while still earning the automatic qualifying time! Talk about a comeback.

After all of this, she still has the fourth-fastest 10k mark in the field, so I’m going to go with my gut when it says that Bailey’s knack of being a true 10k runner will power her through in this race for a 3rd place finish.

Nate: As things stand, this is Jennifer Sandoval’s race to lose. She has the top seed time by a margin larger than 30 seconds and won every race she’s suited up for with only two exceptions: the Bryan Clay invite where she took 2nd and notched her current 10k seed time, and the American Track League’s “The Track Meet,” where she raced a 5k against professionals.

Sandoval did the latter the other week and ran 15:58 -- pretty good for a final tune-up. She can certainly can lay claim to the 10k crown, but the field isn’t going to just let that happen.

U-Mary’s Ida Narbuvoll is the second overall seed and has the tools to snatch the win from Sandoval and the rest of the competition. As Eric and John have respectively pointed out, Narbuvoll hasn’t lost this year and has some serious leg speed. Her 4:26 1500m PR puts her a cut above her competition in that department.

We can’t count out Southern Indiana’s Jennifer Comastri, either. She’s been in championship settings before as we saw her crack the top-five for the indoor 5k title race. She’s coming fresh off of a GLVC crown at the same distance on the outdoor oval. Comastri most recently secured her top-three seeding for this event with a win over U-Indy’s Lauren Bailey.

Speaking of Lauren Bailey, she’s a contender just on account of her resume alone. It’s just that good. Add in the obstacles she’s had to overcome recently as Eric pointed out, and it gets even harder to doubt Bailey. The thing working against her is a lack of racing for obvious reasons, but she’s managed to punch her ticket to this race with just one attempt. She’ll undoubtedly be in the mix.

---

Men

John: This race is not a foregone conclusion, and that’s what makes it one of the most interesting races of the weekend. Up until the conference championship weekend, we were mainly talking about the altitude conversions of many athletes. Then Ezra Mutai entered and reminded us all that he was still competing.

After soloing 28:44 and earning a two-and-half minute win at the Northeast-10 Outdoor Championships, it’s safe to say that Mutai is now the favorite. And with competition, there’s no telling how fast he can run. If he opts to run hard from the gun, it’ll be interesting to see who goes with him...if anyone does.

Those who go with him will obviously either be rewarded for their effort, or suffer a long, painful 25 laps. Marcelo Laguera (CSU-Pueblo) has already finished 2nd in this event (2019) where he calmly raced for 2nd after Zach Panning forced his hand on the rest of the field that day. I don’t think that will be the same strategy for the Thunderwolf athlete this time around. Laguera ran the 1500 multiple times this season and it’s evident that he was trying to work on his foot speed, likely for a race like this.

It feels like we’ve forgotten about Jack Mastandrea, and that’s largely because he only raced two 10k races this season, and one was at his conference meet where it played out tactically. It’s unclear what we will see from Mastrandrea, but he’s got recent championship racing and only one event to focus on. Expect Mastandrea to be part of the lead pack for as long as possible as he’s one of the competitors who can’t afford letting the leaders get too far ahead.

I’d be remiss to not talk about the Grand Valley State boys who have taken care of their business this season without much noise. Isaac Harding, Tanner Chada and Enael Woldemichael all enter with automatic marks in the 10k and 5k (although to be fair, everyone entered in the 10k and 5k have automatic marks).

We have seen Chada and Harding on the biggest stage, and they excelled while there. Meanwhile, Woldemichael had already been successful at the NCAA meet and there’s no reason for us to believe that this time will be any different.

Keep an eye on Charlie Sweeney as well. The Mountaineer athlete is only qualified in the 10k this year giving him an opportunity to see what he’s really got in those legs over the course of 25 laps. Expect him to cover any and all moves by his competitors as he looks for his first ever national title.

Eric: Like the 5k, the 10k had a mix of familiar faces in the Grand Valley State guys (Isaac Harding and Tanner Chada) as well Western Colorado’s Charlie Sweeney in addition to some runners who we haven’t seen in a while in American International’s Ezra Mutai and CSU-Pueblo’s Marcelo Laguera.

Of course, no matter the familiarity, each runner listed has a real shot at winning this 10,000 meter race.

Ezra Mutai has already soloed a 28:44 this year which proves he’s wildly fit. I’m just wondering what he will do when other runners either slow the pace down or try to keep on varying the pace to try to throw him off of his race plan. However, if you know anything about him, it's that he’s built for the 10k and has already won a cross country title, so he should be ready to roll through the same distance on the oval.

Marcelo Laguera is back after competing in the COVID-19 shortened indoor season in 2020. A quick glance at his times this year may indicate that he’s not in the best shape of his life, but a race held at the Colorado School of Mines track on April 24, proves that he’s ready. He raced the 10k that day and beat a hoard of Colorado Mines runners including Kyle Moran, Dylan Ko and Dillon Powell, as well as Western Colorado’s Charlie Sweeney.

Those are all guys who are in very good shape, so him coming away victorious that day tells me that he’s still got it.

Charlie Sweeney has made the 10k his focus this time around after many trips to the national meet in which he doubled. He’s the RMAC champion in the 10k and has raced the event two other times this season, so he is accustomed to the sustained suffering needed to run the longest event offered on the track. Look for him to really take the race out from the start as he’s not afraid to run the race the way he wants.

The Lakers' star duo of Isaac Harding and Tanner Chada have really fed off of each other since they became teammates this past fall. Both have run extremely well and have further elevated the distance corps in Allendale. With that being said, Harding is a real competitor, taking two runner-up finishes to Noble in the 3k/5k double at the NCAA Indoor Championships this past winter, so I’d give him the slight edge over Chada right now.

Nate: It wouldn’t be Nationals if the field wasn’t deep, but this 10k field is exceptional. From established heavyweights to younger talents, this field has it all except for a "run-away" favorite to win. It’s best to begin unpacking this field with Ezra Mutai as he is the top seed.

As already implied, Mutai has the top seed-time of the field with a mark of 28:44. That’s already impressive enough, but he also did it in a completely solo effort. Additionally, there’s no conversion there. No one to run with and no conversion leaves that mark as purely Mutai’s work. Mutai also has the leg speed for a tactical race as evidenced by his 3:45 effort for 1500 meters, but an honest race may work more to Mutai’s favor.

That, however, is not to say that Mutai would run away with this title. Mutai is young and lacks experience in a national title race on a track (although he's been great on the grass). On the opposite end of that spectrum is CSU-Pueblo’s Marcelo Laguera.

Laguera has been here before, for this exact same race, two other times. The most recent attempt had him as the runner-up and he’s arguably the most proven of the field. Laguera has already come out on top of a field this season that included the Mines runners, Western Colorado’s Charlie Sweeney and the Colorado Christian duo of Ryder Searle and Josh Pierantoni.

On one hand, that could serve as a pretty good preview of what’s to come this week.

On the other hand, that’s just one race and may be misleading when it comes to our expectations.

I’m sure the runners not named Marcelo Laguera will argue the latter for this Thursday. Especially the likes of Sweeney and Ko who, like Laguera, are not new to this distance. Also be sure to not count out the younger guys like Pierantoni or Queens’ Jan Lukas Becker. They're very solid talents who have proven that they can be uber competitive with the top names in the country.