Predictions & Previews: 2021 D2 Outdoor National Championships (800 Meters)

Women

Sam: There are two distinct groups in the women’s 800 field this weekend. The first group is Bailey Sharon (Western Colorado) and Yasmine Hernandez (CSU-Pueblo). The second is everyone else.

Sharon and Hernandez have both run 2:05 this season. No one else in the field has run faster than 2:08. Sharon stumbled a bit at the RMAC Championships, but rebounded nicely to run a personal best at the APU Last Chance Twilight meet. Coming into the national meet on the heels of a big performance makes her dangerous and the likely favorite.

Hernandez is a bit more interesting. She hasn’t raced an 800 since April 18th and while that was her seasonal (and personal) best, the extended absence gives Sharon the edge as the favorite. While there shouldn’t be an issue for the CSU-Pueblo junior, keep an eye on her during the preliminary rounds as she could be a bit rusty.

So who else could make noise? Given it’s an 800, the easy answer is anyone, but the two to focus on are Jessica Cusick (Western Colorado) and Chrissani May (Lincoln (Mo.)).

May comes in as the third fastest performer in the NCAA this season, but that comes with a catch. She’s run 2:08, but it was also the only time she broke 2:11 during outdoors. This gives her a high ceiling, but a pretty low floor this weekend.

Similar to her teammate, Cusick is also coming off her personal best for 800 meters. Echoing previous comments, a runner coming off of a personal best is dangerous come Nationals and Cusick is no different. If there was someone who might bridge the gap and set (another) personal best this weekend, Cusick would be a solid choice.

As with any 800, there should be chaos and prelim rounds will make things interesting. Barring any major mishaps from the favorites, the final should lean towards a battle between Sharon and Hernandez.

Eric: I have to agree with Sam here and say two women have separated themselves from the rest of the field and it’s an old RMAC rivalry in Western Colorado’s Bailey Sharon and CSU-Pueblo’s Yasmine Hernandez. Ironically, neither won the RMAC 800 as they settled the score in the 400 that day with Sharon taking the head-to-head victory and eventual gold.

However, Hernandez has the faster 1500 time with a 4:29 versus a 4:32. So, are you betting on the speed of Sharon or the strength of Hernandez since they have both run under 2:06, including conversions?

I think a lot of people are forgetting about the youngster and true freshman in Taryn Chapko. She really burst onto the scene during indoors by breaking 2:10 and finishing 3rd at the national meet before having a somewhat quiet outdoor season in comparison. Sure, it’s been a long season for her, but she’s running at the National Championships on her home track. It doesn’t get much better than that, plus she’s run personal bests in the 400 and 1500 this spring, which indicates that her fitness level has only increased. I’d be on the lookout if I were her competition.

A real question mark for me is the Academy of Art’s Natalia Novak. She definitely has the times to back her up in this elite field. However, I'd just like to see how she performs at her first national meet as she was slated to run the mile at the NCAA Indoor Championships until COVID-19 canceled the meet.

Nate: This field has a mix of young talent and established veterans which should make for quite the show. Some of the up-and-comers like Taryn Chapko (Grand Valley State) and Elizabeth Acheson (U-Mary) have already made cases for being the real deal, or have proven themselves as such.

Taryn Chapko has comfortably gone under the 2:10-barrier on both the indoor and outdoor oval, doing so most recently at the GLIAC Championships where she took home her first outdoor 800m conference crown. Chapko already has an All-American nod at this distance under her belt from the indoor title race. Her performances this spring shows us that she can snag another All-American finish this week.

Elizabeth Acheson is in a similar boat to Chapko. The difference is that the U-Mary frosh has only recently broken 2:10, but that isn’t a bad thing. If anything, Acheson did that at just the right time. What better way to build momentum than by having a breakthrough race to win your conference championship? With a three-second PR en route to win her first outdoor conference title, I’d argue that Acheson has the most momentum coming into this meet out of the field.

She’s also experienced the bright lights of the big stage this past indoor season. Odds are she’ll be feeling a lot more comfortable with the way things have been going for her. Of course, she’ll have to throw down with some big names. Two names that she’ll probably have her eyes on: Yasmine Hernandez (CSU-Pueblo) and Bailey Sharon (Western Colorado).

The matchup between Yasmine Hernandez and Bailey Sharon will likely determine how the 800 meters as a whole plays out. Sharon looks to have the edge as things stand.

On paper, Sharon has the faster PR over 800 meters, and has won their head-to-head matchup this season. The catch is that the head-to-head was over 400 meters rather than 800 meters. There’s also the matter of Hernandez being right with Sharon on paper. Hernandez is by no means a stranger to this setting just like Sharon.

The CSU-Pueblo senior made a run at Indianapolis’ Cleyet-Merle on the indoor circuit and just barely came up short, she’s going to do everything she can to come out on top on the outdoor oval.

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Men

John: The top-four men in this event have all broken the 1:49 barrier, with Seb Anthony and Titus Lagat being the latest athletes to do so. They joined Dennis Mbuta and Butare Rugenerwa who have been biding their time since they dropped their marks in late March.

The race between Anthony and Mbuta is going to be a tight one and I think that Anthony comes out on top because he'll gain the slightest of leads with his front-running approach. Mbuta has been the favorite since he won the indoor title, but I don’t think that’s changed entering this weekend either for what it’s worth.

Lagat has entered the real contender status with his latest run. Waiting for the end of the season for his best mark in a Flame uniform would be considered clutch in many other sports. The same could be said for Lagat as he seems to be rolling into the weekend in the best shape of his life.

Names worth watching this weekend include Eliot Slade (Academy of Art), Ben Nagel (U-Indy), Shane Cohen (Tampa), and Adam Wright (Queens (N.C.)). All of these guys are under the 1:50 barrier and have come at different times in the season.

There are a total of 13 men under 1:50 and unfortunately, some are going to be left out of the final, even with nine athletes advancing through. The biggest thing to watch will be how the favorites work their way through the prelim, because as we all know, the 800 is the most volatile when it comes to qualifying.

Eric: I’m going to pick Dennis Mbuta to win as I remember not picking him in our indoor predictions and he burned me. But, that's not the only reason why I’m choosing him as he’s already PR'd this season in both the 800 and 1500 and in my mind, has finally gotten over the hump when he won the national title in the indoor 800.

Seb Anthony is the man Mbuta beat to win that indoor national title, and you can expect that Anthony wants to take his revenge on the outdoor track, especially since this race will be on Mbuta’s home track.

Anthony has had a solid season, most recently breaking the 1:49 barrier for the first time this outdoor season at the Lee Last Chance meet over a couple of guys he will be racing at NCAA's in Titus Lagat (Lee (Tenn.)), Scott Spaanstra (Grand Valley State), Ian Johnson (Ashland) and Adam Wright (Queens (N.C.)).

I like his momentum and if you remember, he only lost to Mbuta indoors by about a tenth of a second, so why can’t he be on the right side of history this time around?

Nate: Dennis Mbuta will seek to complete the twin set of titles and get an 800 meter national title on the outdoor oval. He’s proven that he can win during indoors and has only gained fitness as evidenced by his 1500 meter performances this outdoor season. There aren’t many, on paper, contending with the Grand Valley State product, but he’s not going to just run away with the crown either.

Butare Rugenerwa (West Texas A&M) is one of the top contenders of this field, boasting both the time and accolades to make a strong case for him as a contender for gold. Rugenerwa finished in the top-three in this event this past indoor season, and has made it to this stage before in the same event. His seed time is nearly identical to that of top-seeded Mbuta, and he’s made some improvements to his fitness with new PRs in the 1500 and mile to show for it. Rugenerwa has the tools to win it all, but it will come down to execution for him.

A dark-horse candidate to keep an eye on is Ashland’s Ian Johnson. He isn’t one of the top seeds, but he certainly has the chops to shake things up amongst the top guys. He’s gotten the better of Dennis Mbuta over this distance on the indoor oval and if this race unfolds in his favor, that could happen again.

Another runner along those same lines is Jonathon Groendyk (Grand Valley State). The sophomore came up a little short on this same stage during indoors, but has raced well in the 800 meters this spring. While not quite up to our standards recently, Groendyk is still sitting right on the edge of the 1:49 barrier and is due for a big breakthrough race. If he executes and makes that leap, Groendyk will make waves.