PREDICTIONS: BYU Robison High School Invitational

Donald Speas
May 2, 2024
7 min read

Predictions & analysis by Donny Speas

The state of Utah has been absolutely brilliant in the boy's and girl's high school distance running scene over the last few years. Thankfully, we'll get to see a handful of the top-tier stars from the Beehive State go head-to-head before we the postseason truly kicks off.

Here how TSR writer Donny Speas, a Utah native, thinks the meet will play out...

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Girl's 800 Meters

Lily Alder (Timpview) - 2:09
Addie Meldrum (Lone Peak) - 2:11
Cadence Kasprick (Grand County) - 2:11
Bria Anderson (Timpanogos) - 2:12
Tori Stratton (American Fork) - 2:14

Analysis: Lily Alder has had one of the best three-season campaigns this year of any athlete in the country, and it looks like she should continue her superb outdoor track season this Saturday. Alder comes into this race as the big favorite as she's the only athlete entered with a personal best under 2:10 over the half-mile distance. And based on her recent result of 4:40 to take 3rd in the Arcadia Invitational mile, she looks like the fittest athlete in this race.

If this race runs slower than expected, Bria Anderson of Timpanogos is one athlete to watch out for. On paper, Anderson has the best foot-speed of anyone contesting this event. She did, after all, recently lower her 400-meter personal best down to a blazing 55.86 seconds. It's also worth noting that the schedule makes the 400/800 double rather difficult, so there is a possibility that we, unfortunately, do not see Anderson contest the 800 meters this Saturday.

Boy's 800 Meters

Jojo Jourdon (Olympus) - 1:50
Noah Nielson (American Fork) - 1:50
Isaac Sohler (Mountain View) - 1:52
William Steadman (Herriman) - 1:53
Zach Hillhouse (Pleasant Grove) - 1:54

Analysis: This looks to be a two-horse race upfront between Jojo Jourdon, the sub-four miler and NXN champion, and Noah Nielson, the athlete who pulled off three All-American finishes in three days this indoor track season (including relays).

The case for Noah Nielson is simple -- the Notre Dame commit is flat-out better over 800 meters, has the faster personal best in this event (1:49) and the race is, well...800 meters long. It's his primary distance. He's also got better 400-meter speed, running 50.32 seconds for 400 meters last weekend, and he's already got a head-to-head win over 800 meters against Jourdon from the Pine View Invitational earlier this season.

However, we have yet to see what a fresh Jojo Jourdon can do over 800 meters. His only attempt over the distance this season came in the loss mentioned above to Nielson back in March at the Pine View Invitational. That result also came on the same day after breaking the state record over 1600 meters. All this to say, I think Jourdon is certainly better than what his 1:53 personal best may suggest.

Considering that Mountain View's Isaac Sohler, a runner who almost always sets a blazing pace early-on is also entered in this field, I won't be surprised if Nielson or Jourdon can take advantage of a hot pace and challenge Ricky Faure's meet record of 1:50.70.

Girl's 1600 Meters

Jane Hedengren (Timpview) - 4:42
Boston Bybee (Lone Peak) - 4:49
Addie Meldrum (Lone Peak) - 4:52
Avalon Mecham (American Fork) - 4:54
Julie Moore (Mountain View) - 4:55

Analysis: This looks like it should be a race for 2nd place. Jane Hedengren is far and away the most talented athlete in this field and when you look at what she's already done this season, especially in the mile (4:37 seasonal best, 2nd place at Arcadia), then you see why we're so confident in Hedengren's odds for victory.

Behind Hedengren, we see a wildly impressive show of depth by the Lone Peak Knights. The Knights have three out of the top-five entrants (Boston Bybee, Addie Meldrum and Maya Bybee), all with season bests of 4:57 or faster. We could see some team strategy play out, potentially elevating all three athletes to a higher level.

The more I look at these entries, the more astounded I am by this race's depth. I'd be remiss not to bring up Avalon Mecham, the two-time cross country All-American, or Julie Moore, who won the 3200 meters at this meet last year. And what Cadence Kasprick? The multiple-time Utah state champion with a 4:51 mile personal best from this indoor track season?

In case you couldn't tell, this race is loaded head-to-toe with top-tier talent.

Boy's 1600 Meters

Danny Simmons (American Fork) - 4:00
Jojo Jourdon (Olympus) - 4:03
Zach Hillhouse (Pleasant Grove) - 4:09
Ben Jaster (American Fork) - 4:09
Isaac Sohler (Mountain View) - 4:11

Analysis: Wow, it looks like both the girl's and boy's 1600-meter fields are loaded.

Right off the bat, we see two of the nation's best runners, Daniel Simmons and Jojo Jourdon, at the top of the entries. Jourdon will be doubling back from an intriguing matchup against a different American Fork star over 800 meters the day before, making me think that Simmons should be a slight favorite for Saturday morning's race.

Additionally, a couple of weeks ago, Simmons broke Jourdon's state record over 1600 meters, running 4:03 in a race where he faced virtually no competition. These two heavyweights are almost guaranteed to give us a spectacular race on Saturday morning.

Looking beyond Simmons and Jourdon, we see the usual elite collection of Utah distance runners, including Tayshuan Ogomo, the winner of the seeded section of the mile at Arcadia, as well as Ben Jaster, an aerobic monster looking to dip under 4:10 for the first time. We also can't forget about Zach Hillhouse who ran a 4:07 (mile) PR to finish runner-up at Arcadia and Isaac Sohler who always sets a fast early pace.

Girl's 3200 Meters

Avalon Mecham (American Fork) - 10:31
Millie Robinson (Westlake) - 10:38
Maya Bybee (Lone Peak) - 10:43
Isabel Preston (Riverton) - 10:46
Jaylie Jenkins (Union) - 10:47

Analysis: This field looks very close to a preview of the Utah 6A State Championships as almost all of the top runners in this event belong to 6A schools.

The top athlete in this race is BYU commit Avalon Mecham who has earned All-American honors on the grass...twice. Admittedly, Mecham is much stronger on the grass than on the track. However, she does have a marquee win from the Pine View Invitational which featured many of the same athletes who we will see in Friday's race.

This race also features a lot of young talent with three different freshmen all seeded in the top-10, the fastest being Maya Bybee of Lone Peak at 10:48. And if Utah continues to follow the trend of producing top-tier distance talents, then this trio of rookies could give us a quick glimpse into what their potential for the future is this weekend.

Boy's 3200 Meters

Austin Westfall (Orem) - 8:55
Jack Beckstorm (Herriman) - 8:59
Caleb Woolford (Maple Mountain) - 9:03
Corbin Randall (Riverton) - 9:03
Kyle Steadman (Mountain View) - 9:05

Analysis: The boy's 3200-meter race features two athletes who have run under nine minutes this season and a whole host of others who are knocking on the door of it. One of the two athletes who have run under nine minutes is Jack Beckstorm, the top finisher on Herriman's NXN title-winning squad from this past fall. He is also someone who has been incredibly consistent this season.

The other sub-nine athlete is Austin Westfall. The Orem star is always an interesting name to watch as he had the race of his life this past December, taking 4th place at NXN and further showcasing the elite talent that he possesses in the process. Yes, he clearly thrives on the grass more than the track, but he has been making great strides this season, lowering his personal bests to 4:19 (1600) and 8:56 (3200).

Behind the top-two, there is a large group of athletes who could find themselves finishing in the top-five on any given day. Some key names include Corbin Randall, who finished 3rd at the prestigious Pine View Invitational, Caleb Woolford, who can claim All-American honors in the steeplechase in a month, and Kyle Steadman, someone who qualified as an individual for NXN last fall.

Girl's 4x800-Meter Relay

Timpview Thunderbirds - 8:56
Lone Peak Knights - 8:58
Mountain View Bruins - 9:10
Park City Miners - 9:14
Timpanogos Timberwolves - 9:16

Analysis: I don't think it's crazy to say that the Timpview Thunderbirds might be capable of running 10 seconds faster than their seed time of 9:06. When you look at the lineup that Timpview can put together with all of the talent that they have on their roster, it seems more and more like we could see a sub-9:00 clocking on Saturday (at altitude, nonetheless).

A lot of my confidence in the Thunderbirds comes from the elite duo of Lily Alder and Jane Hedgengren (who I believe are the best duo in the country.) Both athletes hold 800-meter personal bests of 2:09 and are favored to win individual events. Where Timpview becomes vulnerable is their other two legs, Vanessa Storey and Ellie Esplin, who hold 800-meter personal bests of 2:20 and 2:23. However, if ether of those runners has a good day, then it should be smooth sailing for the Thunderbirds.

However, this isn't a one-team race. The Lone Peak Knights aren't typically known for 800-meter strength, but they hold an insane amount of depth (after all, they did finish 4th as a team at NXN) with six different runners holding seasonal bests faster than 2:20. There is certainly a path for the Knights to use their depth and achieve not only a sub-9:00 effort, but also pull off an upset.

Boy's 4x800-Meter Relay

American Fork Caveman - 7:43
Herriman Mustangs - 7:49
Layton Lancers - 8:00
Viewmont Vikings - 8:02
Timpanogos Timberwolves - 8:03

Analysis: This feels a lot like a rematch between the programs that took 1st and 2nd place at NXN this past fall. Except, this time, I'm picking the Cavemen to flip the script and take down the Mustangs.

As of late, American Fork has been running with an efficiency that most college programs would envy. During the indoor track season, they won the 4xMile relay national title and had three athletes finish in the top-three of their individual events (one producing a national record in the process). This trend continued into the outdoor track season with the Cavemen recently running 7:40 for the 4x800-meter relay.

Of course, that's not to say that the Herriman Mustangs have had a bad season. They've had a dang good season, winning both the DMR and the 4x800-meter relay at the Oregon Relays and putting eight athletes under two minutes for the half-mile distance.

American Fork versus Herriman has quickly developed into one of the best rivalries in the country and I can't wait for the newest chapter to unfold this Saturday.