PREDICTIONS: 2024 Liberty League Outdoor Championships

Kevin Fischer
May 1, 2024
6 min read

Predictions & analysis by Kevin Fischer

Additional edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin & Gavin Struve

With the Division Three and Division Two conference championships officially beginning last weekend and finishing next weekend, we opted to focus on a handful of meets taking place later this week (at least for the ones that we were able to acquire performance lists for).

We'll start with the Liberty League Championships, which span Friday, May 3rd to Saturday, May 4th and are fittingly hosted by the conference's deepest distance team (RPI) this year.

Here's how long-time D3 writer (and competitor) Kevin Fischer foresees the distance races playing out in eastern New York this weekend...

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*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event. In these predictions, TSR is assuming that each runner is contesting an event fresh (i.e. not doubling back).

Men's 800 Meters

1. Sean Hendricks (Rochester)* - 1:52

2. Jack Keelan (Bard) - 1:53

3. Dominic Pena (RPI) - 1:54

4. Danny Gall (RPI)* - 1:55

5. Daniel Ford (Rochester) - 1:55

Analysis: An upset of All-American Sean Hendricks would take a herculean effort. The only variable that gives the rest of the field hope is the expectation that he will be on tired legs doubling back from the 1500 meters. Still, he should have no problem winning here.

Jack Keelan of Bard has twice been a runner-up finisher in the half-mile at past Liberty League Championships. And with the form that he’s in, there is no reason to believe he won’t earn that distinction again. The RPI true freshman duo of Dominic Pena and Danny Gall will be out to show once more that they don’t shy away from big moments, and Rochester’s Daniel Ford is looking to rediscover his 1:53 form from 2023.

Women’s 800 Meters

1. Megan Bell (Rochester)* - 2:14

2. Allison Sibold (St. Lawrence)* - 2:17

3. Ava Whitney (Vassar) - 2:19

4. Norah Reade (Vassar) - 2:19

5. Sophia Henderson (Vassar) - 2:21

Analysis: Megan Bell figures to be 40 minutes removed from the 400 meters entering this race, but she should still have no problem holding off the rest of this field. Her biggest challenger will be Allison Sibold, but there just seems to be too much of a gap between them for it to be a true contest. With that said, I would consider the top-two spots fairly safe bets despite Sibold’s relative inconsistency this spring. Behind them, Vassar has tons of really solid talent and will have a chance at some serious team points in this event.

Men’s 1500 Meters

1. Davis Piercy (RPI) - 3:54

2. Nicholas Lyndaker (St. Lawrence)* - 3:55

3. Sean Hendricks (Rochester)* - 3:55

4. Cory Kennedy (RPI)* - 3:55

5. Matthew Smalling (RPI)* - 3:56

Analysis: This is one of the deepest events in the meet, and I could realistically see up to eight men challenging for the win. I’ll take my chances on indoor national mile qualifier Davis Piercy winning on his home track, but Nicholas Lyndaker will give him a scare.

Cory Kennedy is the biggest name in the field based on his 5000-meter prowess. And while I'm not sure that he has enough momentum to take the win in a clear "off" event for him, he will still be in the mix most of the way. An interesting name here is 800-meter All-American Sean Hendricks. He has more pure speed than anyone else in the field and should thrive in a tactical race setting.

Women’s 1500 Meters

1. Haley Schoenegge (Vassar)* - 4:30

2. Allison Sibold (St. Lawrence)* - 4:31

3. Jules Bleskoski (RPI)* - 4:39

4. Olivia Pisacano (RPI)* - 4:42

5. Catherine Dacey (Union (NY)) - 4:45

Analysis: Haley Schoenegge and Allison Sibold have been trending in opposite directions since the indoor track season ended. While Schoenegge has developed from someone with star potential to a true ace, Sibold has had a difficult spring campaign (so far).

I think the mile indoor national meet runner-up finisher will come closer to her winter form this weekend and make it a highly competitive race. However, Schoenegge’s momentum appears to be just a little too much in my eyes. Jules Bleskoski, who was a national qualifier in the 3000 meters a couple of months ago, should be the favorite to grab bronze while teammate Olivia Pisacano won’t be too far back from her.

Men’s 5000 Meters

1. Cory Kennedy (RPI)* - 14:28

2. Vince Simonetti (RPI)* - 14:28

3. Jason Gibbons (RPI)* - 14:30

4. Nicholas Lyndaker (St. Lawrence)* - 14:31

5. Mitchell Dailey (RPI)* - 14:33

Analysis: With almost all of the top athletes in this field doubling back, I don’t think this race will get out very fast. Still, the RPI duo of Cory Kennedy and Vince Simonetti is on a different level than the rest of the field. They should be the clear favorites to go 1-2 regardless of the type of race we see.

Their teammate Jason Gibbons, a 3000-meter indoor national qualifier, had a tough day at Penn Relays, but he is more than capable of a 3rd-place finish if he runs at the level that we know he can. Meanwhile, St. Lawrence standout Nicholas Lyndaker will look to break up the Engineer pack, but it won’t be easy a couple of hours after the 1500-meter final.

Women’s 5000 Meters

1. Haley Schoenegge (Vassar)* - 17:05

2. Jules Bleskoski (RPI)* - 17:20

3. Olivia Pisacano (RPI)* - 17:22

4. Sennett Turner (Rochester)* - 17:31

5. Kyla Eisman (Ithaca)* - 17:59

Analysis: There is a pretty big talent gap between the top runners in this field and the fringe scorers. Haley Schoenegge will be doubling back from what should be a tightly contested 1500-meter battle against Allison Sibold, but none of the top-nine seeds will be fresh, so that shouldn’t be a concern for her.

Bleskoski and Pisacano are national-caliber talents, but they are still a tier behind Schoenegge and will likely struggle to hang with her. Even so, a comfortable 2-3 finish would be considered a great success in the team scoring.

Men’s 10,000 Meters

1. Vince Simonetti (RPI)* - 29:45

2. Mitchell Dailey (RPI)* - 29:45

3. Jonathan Craun (RPI)* - 30:16

4. Miles Takiguchi (Vassar)* - 30:32

5. Brady Geisler (RPI) - 30:58

Analysis: Vince Simonetti is the heavy favorite to win the men's 10,000 meters and shouldn't need a 100% effort to get maximum team points for RPI. He'll likely run the majority of the race with Mitchell Dailey who should comfortably earn 2nd place.

Miles Takiguchi holds the next fastest 10k PR at 30:00, but he has struggled a bit this season. I think he will run faster than his current seasonal best of 30:52, but I'm not sure that will be enough to beat out Jonathan Craun for bronze and stop a 1-2-3 finish for the Engineers.

Women’s 10,000 Meters

1. Sennett Turner (Rochester)* - 37:19

2. Kyla Eisman (Ithaca)* - 37:28

3. Katie Cobos (RIT)* - 37:43

4. Leah Goodloe (RPI)* - 38:37

5. Amaavi Miriyagalla (Vassar) - 38:51

Analysis: Seeing as she's the top seed by over two minutes, it’s difficult to imagine anybody beating Rochester’s Sennett Turner here. With the 5000 meters coming up the following day, there’s a good chance that she runs a relaxed effort to win this race while saving her legs.

Katie Cobos of RIT and Kyla Eisman of Ithaca are pretty clearly the two next-best talents in the field. Cobos has not contested the 10k yet this year, but her 18:05 (5k) mark suggests that she can do some good things here. Eisman’s 38:15 seed time was from a solo effort and likely not representative of what she can do, especially considering her 17:46 (5k) PR.

Men’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

1. Jason Gibbons (RPI)* - 9:32

2. Aidan Mayer (Vassar)* - 9:34

3. Patrick Russell (St. Lawrence)* - 9:44

4. Michael Harkins (RPI) - 9:51

5. Joseph Krenzer (RIT) - 9:51

Analysis: With nobody running under 9:40 so far this season, the Liberty League steeplechase seems to be a bit devoid of star power compared to other events. There should still be some good racing, however, and I think the win will come down to Jason Gibbons and Aidan Mayer. The latter has only run 9:46 this spring, but has the fastest lifetime best in the field (9:20) while Gibbons is by far the most talented in flat distance events in the field.

It's hard to see anyone outside of those two winning on Friday, and I'd give Gibbons a slight edge given that he has only run the steeplechase once this season. And while his 9:41 result was pedestrian by his standards, it was still the top mark in the Liberty League this spring.

Women’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

1. Emma Palumbo (St. Lawrence)* - 11:25

2. Kat Benninger (Rochester)* - 11:27

3. Claudia Wolf (RPI) - 11:38

4. Allison Malatesta (Union (NY))* - 11:39

5. Sab Lin (Rochester)* - 11:45

Analysis: Emma Palumbo holds far and away the best steeplechase PR in the field, but she hasn’t fully gotten it going yet this year, as her only effort in the distance was an 11:46 mark at Middlebury. I’m not sure that she is in range of recapturing her sub-11 form yet, but she should take enough of a step in the right direction to beat this field.

Kat Benninger, the only other athlete in this field to have run under 11:30, will give her the most trouble. After her, there's a lot of parity, and the 3-4-5 spots could feasibly go to anyone seeded in the top-eight or so.