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PREDICTIONS: 2024 Kentucky Dream Mile
- Donald Speas
- May 1, 2024
- 3 min read
Predictions & Analysis via Donny Speas
There are not many events like the Kentucky Dream Mile. It's a race containing all the best milers in the Bluegrass State and it doesn't matter whether you come from the biggest school in the state or the smallest. If you run fast enough to be one of the coveted qualifiers by being one of Kentucky's 16 fastest milers, you're in.
However, perhaps most importantly, this race is only open to Kentucky residents, giving it a truly unique feeling, and cementing its place in the ever-changing landscape of track and field
Girl's Mile
Tula Fawbush (Oldham County) - 4:46
Regan Gilmore (Assumption) - 4:46
Addison Moore (Woodford County) - 4:49
Caroline Beiting (Lexington Catholic) - 4:50
Julia Schmitt (Assumption) - 4:51
Analysis: This year's Kentucky Dream Mile is headlined by two athletes who are ranked inside of our Top-50 Distance Recruit Rankings. I am, of course, talking about Regan Gilmore (TSR #29) and Tula Fawbush (TSR #32). And as you might expect, those are the two athletes who I've got coming home in 1st and 2nd place on Friday night.
Luckily, we've seen Gilmore and Fawbush go head-to-head on two occasions during this outdoor track season, once over 800 meters and once over 1600 meters. Both times Fawbush took the victory by running personal bests of 2:11 (800) and 4:45 (1600) in the process.
While I wouldn't be too shocked if Gilmore took the win (after all, she is fresh off of a 10:19 performance over 3200 meters), I can't pick against Fawbush given her recent track record.
Behind the two front-runners, there is a host of solid athletes who have run under five minutes for the mile. The most compelling athlete in that group is Woodford County sophomore, Addison Moore.
The second-year prep talent just recently opened her outdoor track campaign a couple of weeks ago, but she didn't show any rust in her effort. The rising Kentucky-based ace ran 4:54 to win the mile title at the Eastern Relays, taking down a handful of other athletes who will also toe the line yet again on Friday night.
Boy's Mile
Riku Sugie (Thomas Nelson) - 4:11
Roman Sierpina (Louisville Collegiate) - 4:14
Tiger Barlett (Ryle) - 4:14
Lincoln Herald (Grant County) - 4:15
James Gurley (Louisville Catholic) - 4:15
Analysis: The boy's race at this year's Kentucky Dream Mile may not have any athletes listed in our Top-50 Distance Recruit Rankings, but the field does offer a collection of sneaky-good names, some of which will almost certainly be ranked in next year's list.
The biggest name in this race is Foot Locker All-American, Riku Sugie. Although Sugie is more known for his prowess over longer distances and on the cross country course, it's hard to imagine Sugie not being a factor in this race. Earlier in April, he ran 8:48 to win the seeded section of the 3200 meters at the Arcadia Invitational. Admittedly, Sugie has yet to run a fast mile this season, making Friday's race all that more interesting.
Another runner with a case for the win is Roman Sierpina, the current Kentucky leader over the 1600-meter distance (4:12). One potential advantage that Sierpina has is that he's only run three races this season, meaning that he could have much fresher legs when compared to many of his competitors.
After Sugie and Sierpina, there's a large group of athletes who've all had very similar spring campaigns. Luckily for us, a lot of these athletes also ran at the Eastern Relays in Louisville a couple of weeks ago, giving us a lot of insight into how this race may play out.
At the Eastern Relays, the top Kentucky athlete was Grant County junior, Lincoln Herald. Herald's performance at the Eastern Relays was certainly a breakout race for him, (dropping his 1600-meter PR from 4:24 to 4:14). One of the race's many storylines will be to see if he can keep that momentum going as we inch closer to the postseason.
