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PREDICTIONS: 2024 Gulf South Conference Outdoor Championships
- Gavin Struve
- May 1, 2024
- 6 min read
Predictions & analysis by Gavin Struve, additional edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin
With the Division Three and Division Two conference championships officially beginning last weekend and finishing next weekend, we opted to focus on a handful of meets taking place later this week (at least for the ones that we were able to acquire performance lists for).
The Gulf South Conference (GSC) Championships will be one of the more competitive D2 conference meets on the distance side this week and span Thursday, May 2nd to Saturday, May 4th. Here's how D2/D3 editor Gavin Struve envisions the distance races playing out in Montevallo, Alabama this weekend.
*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event. In these predictions, TSR is assuming that each runner is contesting an event fresh (i.e. not doubling back).
Men's 800 Meters
1. Titus Lagat (Lee (Tenn.)) - 1:50
2. Gabe Hodson (Mississippi College) - 1:51
3. Weston Ellison (Alabama-Huntsville) - 1:51
4. Roberto Fajardo (Lee (Tenn.))* - 1:52
5. Cole Benoit (Mississippi College)* - 1:52
Analysis: Titus Lagat is the defending GSC outdoor 800-meter champion and the event record holder at this meet. While he's been up and down in recent years, he'll be heavily favored to win this race, especially after recently cracking 1:50 earlier this month.
Gabe Hodson is back after finishing runner-up at this same meet last year and rookie Weston Ellison could push both men after winning the GSC indoor 800-meter title. The latter seems in line for an improvement upon his 1:52.90 (800) PR. Roberto Fajarado has been a middle distance revelation this season, but one has to think that much of his focus will be on the 1500 meters at this meet.
You can also count on Cole Benoit and Jacob Hatcher among other established upperclassmen in a quietly loaded fourth heat that's mostly comprised of Mississippi College and Lee (Tenn.) men.
Women’s 800 Meters
1. Letlhogonolo Magoro (Lee (Tenn.)) - 2:12
2. Lauren Wallace (Mississippi College)* - 2:12
3. Aria Hawkins (Lee (Tenn.))* - 2:14
4. Lily Hare (Lee (Tenn.))* - 2:14
5. Taylor Benoit (Mississippi College)* - 2:14
Analysis: Taylor Benoit and Lauren Wallace are among the women who helped make up a Choctaw 1-2-3 sweep at the GSC Indoor Championships, but this race feels pretty open without indoor half-mile conference champion, Jazmin Hernandez.
Other women who could contend for the title include last year's GSC Outdoor Championship runner-up, Aria Hawkins, and two of her teammates: Letlhogonolo Magoro, who's broken out this spring with a 2:11 personal best, and Lily Hare, who has long been a key cross country scorer and DMR piece. Wallace has shown the best form this spring, running 2:10, and would get the nod here, but Magoro is the only top contender in this field who's not doubling back.
Men’s 1500 Meters
1. Roberto Fajarda (Lee (Tenn.))* - 3:50
2. Cole Benoit (Mississippi College)* - 3:50
3. Jacob Hatcher (Lee (Tenn.))* - 3:52
4. Ryan Lovelace (Lee (Tenn.))* - 3:54
5. Nathan Knox (Alabama-Huntsville)* - 3:54
Analysis: The top contenders in this race are all doubling back in the 800 meters just over an hour after this race, so this could be a tactical affair. Roberto Fajarda has run an NCAA #3 mark of 3:40 this spring and thus is the favorite. However, Cole Benoit is the defending conference champion, also won the GSC indoor mile title in March and recently ran a PR of 3:44. Ryan Lovelace and Jacob Hatcher placed third and fourth, respectively, in this event at the 2023 GSC Outdoor Championships. But the latter has been sharper this calendar year. There's a bit of a dropoff after that group, but Nathan Knox took bronze in the mile at the 2024 GSC Indoor Championships.
Women’s 1500 Meters
1. Aria Hawkins (Lee (Tenn.))* - 4:25
2. Mckenna Cavanaugh (Lee (Tenn.))* - 4:26
3. Lauren Wallace (Mississippi College)* - 4:27
4. Lily Hare (Lee (Tenn.))* - 4:27
5. Taylor Benoit (Mississippi College)* - 4:28
Analysis: Aria Hawkins, Lily Hare and Lauren Wallace are the top returners in this event, and it will be interesting to see how they balance this event and the 800 meters with little time in between on Saturday. I anticipate that Hawkins, as the top returner, may put more emphasis on the metric mile. She put forth a fast time here last spring while doubling and ran a new personal best of 4:22 in her most recent race, so we could see something relatively fast from her. It would also be wise to keep an eye on Taylor Benoit as well as Mckenna Cavanaugh in her first 1500-meter race for the Flames.
Men’s 5000 Meters
1. Sam Wilhelm (Alabama-Huntsville)* - 14:00
2. Matthew Fowler (Lee (Tenn.)) - 14:07
3. Berket Mesele (Christian Brothers)* - 14:11
4. Aaron Himes (Lee (Tenn.))* - 14:26
5. Jon Fielding Stogner (Lee (Tenn.))* - 14:27
Analysis: Without Jan Lukas Becker competing, this race should be a relative romp for Alabama-Huntsville's Sam Wilhelm who has the fastest 10k PR by a sizable margin and should break up the chain of Lee (Tenn.) and Mississippi College distance event winners.
Beyond him, Berket Mesele and Matthew Fowler are both nationally competitive names, though the latter has the luxury of not doubling back in other events. Fowler's teammate, Aaron Himes, is more proven in championship settings, but also appears to be making his 10k debut. Another Flame, Jon Fielding Stogner, broke out at the 2024 GSC Indoor Championships in this event with a PR and a bronze medal.
Women’s 5000 Meters
1. Megan Adams (Lee (Tenn.))* - 17:06
2. Emily McMurry (Alabama-Huntsville)* - 17:07
3. Danielle Horter (Lee (Tenn.))* - 17:16
4. Katie Krueger (Lee (Tenn.))* - 17:17
5. Paige Patterson (Lee (Tenn.))* - 17:21
Analysis: Devoid of any true stars, this sets up as one of the most compelling races at this meet. Megan Adams won the GSC outdoor 5k title last year as a freshman, but has raced only a few times on the track since then. Danielle Horter was one of several Flames teammates to beat her at their home meet this spring and Emily McMurry was the GSC's 2024 indoor 5k champion while the Flames' Paige Patterson was the runner-up.
Another Lee (Tenn.) runner, Katie Krueger, is riding a significant hot streak with PRs in her last three races. Take your pick for the winner of this race, but mine is a bet on Adams' pedigree.
Men’s 10,000 Meters
1. Sam Wilhelm (Alabama-Huntsville)* - 30:48
2. Aaron Himes (Lee (Tenn.))* - 31:19
3. Jon Fielding Stogner (Lee (Tenn.))* - 31:21
4. Ezekiel Harless (Lee (Tenn.))* - 31:31
5. Gabe Henneberger (Alabama-Huntsville)* - 31:33
Analysis: As is the case in the men's 5k, Sam Wilhelm is a heavy favorite in the 10k due to Jan Lukas Becker's absence from this meet. Wilhelm is, after all, the defending conference champion in the 10k. However, the rest of the top-five finishers from last year's GSC 10k are not returning.
Relatedly, most of the men in this race don't have seed times, but that doesn't mean the field is devoid of talent. Braedon Methvin, Jon Fielding Stogner, Ezekiel Harless and Aaron Himes are more proven commodities over 5000 meters. Wilhelm's teammate, Gabe Henneberger, is the top returner (sixth) beyond Wilhelm from last year's GSC 10k.
Women’s 10,000 Meters
1. Danielle Horter (Lee (Tenn.))* - 35:56
2. Katie Krueger (Lee (Tenn.))* - 36:46
3. Emily McMurry (Alabama-Huntsville)* - 36:55
4. Paige Patterson (Lee (Tenn.))* - 37:15
5. Josie Whipp (Mississippi College)* - 38:01
Analysis: Celine Ritter won three different events at the 2023 GSC Outdoor Championships and her absence leaves room for three new conference champions between the 1500 meters, the 5000 meters and the 10k.
Lee (Tenn.)'s Katie Krueger, Paige Patterson and Danielle Horter as well as UAH's Emily McMurry are doubling back in the 5k, but one of them should have a very real chance at winning this race. Krueger is the top returner from last year after earning bronze, but I'll go with Horter given that she's raced this distance twice in the past month and has posted the fastest time by some margin.
Men’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase
1. Owen Pearce (Lee (Tenn.))* - 9:08
2. Nathan Knox (Alabama-Huntsville)* - 9:11
3. Luke Gaddis (Lee (Tenn.))* - 9:24
4. Taylor Nails (Alabama-Huntsville) - 9:31
5. Will Clayton (Christian Brothers)* - 9:33
Analysis: I discussed Nathan Knox in our men's 1500-meter analysis, but he merits mention here as well given that he's the top returner. The UAH Charger earned bronze in the 2023 GSC steeplechase race, but he should have a worthy adversary in Owen Pearce of Lee (Tenn.) who recently ran a 9:10 PR. A pair of Pearce's teammates, Luke Gaddis and Caleb Guthery, could fill out the spots behind him after each ran a slew of PRs in recent weeks, though the latter hasn't contested the steeplechase this spring.
Women’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase
1. Mckenna Cavanaugh (Lee (Tenn.))* - 10:30
2. Ashlyn Iliff (Lee (Tenn.))* - 10:37
3. Bre Bell (Mississippi College)* - 10:39
4. Kathrin Maurer (West Georgia)* - 12:11
5. Elizabeth Cain (Alabama-Huntsville)* - 12:14
Analysis: Just 10 women populate this race, all in one heat. And the top-two returners from, you guessed it, Lee (Tenn.) and Mississippi College, both return. That would be reigning GSC steeplechase champion Bre Bell, a Choctaw, and Ashlyn Iliff, a Flame.
Both women ran PRs in the same race at Georgia Tech two weeks ago, but Iliff was eight seconds faster with a mark of 10:44. That seemingly sets this up as an intriguing mano-a-mano battle. However, the catch is that Mckenna Cavanaugh enters the picture armed with an even faster recent PR (10:34) and ample high-level postseason experience.
